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[Call to Order]

[00:00:07]

MEETING TO ORDER.

UM, WE NEED TO DO ROLL CALL OF OPPOSITES PRESENT.

WE DO.

OKAY.

ALL RIGHT.

UM, PRESENT COMMISSIONER IS KANATI COMMISSIONER RONAN, COMMISSIONER BAILEY, MESELF COMMISSIONER MCGEE IS CHAIR, COMMISSIONER SMITH AND COMMISSIONER CHANNON.

DO WE HAVE ANY OTHER COMMISSIONERS JOINING US VIRTUALLY? NO ONE VIRTUALLY.

OKAY.

ALL RIGHT.

UH, FIRST ITEM ON THE AGENDA IS OUR PUBLIC COMMUNICATIONS, UH, SPEAKERS, NO SPEAKERS.

AND WE'RE NOT INCLUDING PROFESSOR HIGHWOOD AND SPEAKERS.

HE'S HIS OWN AGENDA ITEM.

IS THAT CORRECT? OKAY, GREAT.

SO NO PUBLIC SPEAKERS.

SO NEXT ITEM ON THE AGENDA IS APPROVAL OF OUR MINUTES FROM JUNE.

YOU ALL HAVE THE MINUTES DISTRIBUTED.

ARE THERE ANY CORRECTIONS TO THOSE MINUTES? AND THERE IS A LOT.

WE MIGHT HAVE TO WAIT.

UM, CANADY WAS NOT HERE TO VOTE.

OKAY.

SO WE HAVE TO POSTPONE THE MINUTES TO THE NEXT MEETING.

ALL RIGHT.

WELL THAT GIVES ME, SO JOHN IS ON HIS WAY, SO WE, WE WOULDN'T HAVE A CORE.

YEAH.

AND JOHN'S ON HIS WAY.

YEP.

OKAY.

ALL RIGHT.

WELL, UM, UNLESS THERE'S AN OBJECTION, I'D SAY LET'S GO OUT OF ORDER AND WE'LL GO BACK TO THE APPROVAL OF MINUTES, UM, WHEN COMMISSIONER IS HERE, UM, AND WE WILL MOVE ON TO THE NEXT ITEM AND THEN WE'LL GO BACK TO APPROVAL OF MINUTES.

IS THAT ALRIGHT WITH EVERYBODY? YEP.

YEP.

TO GO OUT OF ORDER.

NO OBJECTION TO GO OUT OF ORDER.

OKAY.

ALL RIGHT.

SO, UM, DO WE, I GUESS

[2. Presentation by Professor Heywood Sanders regarding convention center expansions.]

THAT'S THE NEXT ITEM IS PROFESSOR SANDERS.

WHO'S READY.

SO I THINK WE SHOULD CONTINUE WITH THAT.

ALRIGHT.

OKAY.

PROFESSOR ASCENDAS YOU HAVE THE FLOOR, UH, OKAY.

IF YOUR FOLKS COULD, LET ME SHARE MY SCREEN, I'LL BE GLAD TO START RUNNING YOU THROUGH THE PRESENTATION MATERIAL.

CAN YOU GIVE ME JUST A MOMENT, JUST A POINT, A POINT OF ORDER.

IS THERE A WAY WE CAN TURN ON THESE SCREENS IN FRONT OF US? FOR ME, WHICH I DIDN'T HAVE? I DIDN'T HAVE THAT WHEN THAT TURNS ON.

OKAY.

WHAT ELSE DO I NEED TO DO? BOOM.

THERE WE GO.

THERE YOU GO.

RIGHT THERE.

TRY THIS PUBLIC.

IT'S THE FIRST ONE.

HE COULDN'T FIGURE IT OUT.

HE WAS LOCAL PC .

THERE WE GO.

THANK YOU.

ARE YOU READY? OKAY.

TALK TO YOU.

ARE YOU READY? WE'RE READY.

VERY GOOD.

I'D LIKE TO TAKE YOU THROUGH, UH, PREVIOUS MEETING.

UH, AND THEN I HAVE, UH, ADDED A SECOND PART.

THAT'S MORE UPDATED, RELEVANT TO, UH, WHERE THINGS APPEAR TO STAND NOW.

SO FOR RIGHT NOW, UH, LET ME GIVE YOU A LITTLE BIT OF HISTORICAL CONTEXT AND TAKE YOU BACK TO THE PLANNING AND ANALYSIS OR THE PREVIOUS EXPANSION OF THE ACC, UH, BEGINNING BY THIS, WITH THIS ANALYSIS THAT, UH, C H JOHNSON CONSULTING THE CHARLIE JOHNSON DID IN MID 1997 ON A LONG RANGE PLAN FOR THE CENTER, UH, NOTING THAT THE CENTER IS COMPARATIVELY SMALL, UH, THAT BUSINESS CONTINUES TO GROW AND

[00:05:01]

WITH SPACE DEMAND, GROWING METERING PLANNERS ALSO EXPECTED MORE, UH, AND THAT, UH, UH, FAILURE TO EXPAND WOULD RESULT IN EROSION OF THE CITY'S COMPETITIVE POSITION.

UH, PARTICULARLY BASED ON AN ANALYSIS BY JOHNSON SO-CALLED LOSS BUSINESS FROM THE CONVENTION AND VISITORS BUREAU NOW VISIT AUSTIN, UM, NOTING IN THIS CASE, UH, THE ROOM NIGHTS, THAT HOTEL ROOM NIGHTS THAT HAD BEEN LOST, UH, DUE TO DATES BEING UNAVAILABLE OR INADEQUACY OF THE EXISTING CENTER, PERHAPS PROFESSOR SANDERS.

CAN I JUST PAUSE YOU THERE FOR A SECOND? I JUST WANT THE RECORD TO REFLECT THE COMMISSIONER'S READING COMMISSION UPON STRIP JOINED THE MEETING.

THANK YOU.

OKAY.

YES, PLEASE PROCEED.

ALRIGHT, SO LET'S CONTINUE.

UH, SO I'D LIKE YOU TO TAKE PARTICULAR NOTE OF THIS.

UH, THE 97 JOHNSON REPORT NOTED THAT THE CENTER HAD IN 1996, 150,000 CONVENTION AND TRADE SHOW ATTENDEES AT 47 EVENTS, UH, AND PREDICTED THAT THE EVENT COUNT FOLLOWING AN EXPANSION WOULD ROUGHLY DOUBLE, UH, WITH AN INCREASE OF 179,000 ATTENDEES TO A TOTAL OF OVER 329,000.

IF YOU COULD REMEMBER THOSE NUMBERS.

UM, JOHNSON ALSO NOTED THAT THE CENTER AT THAT POINT WAS GENERATING ABOUT 150,000 HOTEL ROOM NIGHTS PER YEAR.

UH, AND THAT THE EXPANSION WOULD MORE THAN DOUBLE THAT TO A TOTAL OF 332,600, UH, IN THIS, FROM THE CITY'S WEBSITE ON THE EXPANSION EFFORT, UH, IN 2002 PROF IMMEDIATELY PRIOR TO ITS COMPLETION, YOU WILL NOTE THERE AT THE BOTTOM, UH, THE, THE ESTIMATES SIMILARLY TAKEN FROM THE JOHNSON REPORT, UH, SHOWING THAT THE EXPANSION WOULD MORE THAN DOUBLE THE HOTEL ROOM NIGHT GENERATION OF THE CENTER TO AN EXCESS OF 330,000 ANNUAL ROOM NIGHTS.

UH, SO WHAT WE WANT TO DO IS TAKE A LITTLE BIT, UH, OF A LOOK AT A RECENT PRE PANDEMIC YEAR TO TAKE A LOOK AT THE, THE CENTER'S EVENT CALENDAR, UH, AND SOME CHARACTERISTICS OF SPECIFIC EVENTS.

UH, IF YOU ALL COULD TAKE A LOOK AT THIS FOR A MOMENT OR TWO UH, IS, IS THERE ANYTHING HERE IN THOSE NUMBERS? LET ME INDICATE ON THE LEFT IS THE EVENT NAME, UH, THE DATES, THE EVENT WAS HELD IN FISCAL 2018, THE ORIGINALLY ESTIMATED ATTENDANCE, THE FINAL ATTENDANCE COUNT, UH, AND IN THAT FAR RIGHT HAND COLUMN, THE NUMBER OF HOTEL ROOM NIGHTS PRODUCED, UH, AND THERE WERE A FEW MORE EVENTS ON A SECOND PAGE, BUT I THOUGHT THIS WOULD GIVE YOU SOME SENSE OF, OF THE KIND OF BUSINESS THE SANDRA HAD BEEN DOING PRIOR TO THE PANDEMIC.

UH, AND MIGHT I ASK IN PROFESSOR MODE, IF YOU SEE ANYTHING INTERESTING HERE, COMMISSIONERS I JUST I'M QUESTIONED.

I WANT TO MAKE SURE I HEARD YOU.

SO THE FIRST COLUMN WAS THE ESTIMATED ORIGINAL ATTENDANCE.

THE SECOND IS THE FINAL ATTENDANCE, AND THEN THE FINAL COLUMN, THE THIRD YOU CALL IT THE TOTAL ROOM NIGHTS.

THAT'S THAT'S THE HOTEL ROOM NIGHTS, THE NUMBER OF HOTEL ROOMS OCCUPIED FOR ONE NIGHT PRODUCED BY THAT PARTICULAR EVENT.

OKAY.

YES.

JUST A QUESTION.

WHERE DID THE ROOM NIGHTS, WHERE, WHERE DID THE ROOM NIGHTS COME FROM? ARE THEY PUBLISHED FROM SOMETHING THE CONVENTION CENTER PUBLISHES POST? THIS IS THIS MATERIAL, AND I'M PLEASED TO SHARE THE BACKGROUND.

DID ANYTHING I'M SHOWING YOU TODAY? UM, COUNCIL MEMBER ALISON ALTER HAD ASKED THE CENTER, OR THIS BREAKDOWN, THE CENTER TYPICALLY REPORTS, UH, AND THE CONSULTANTS HAVE USED, UH, THE FIGURES ON ATTENDANCE AND ROOM NIGHTS.

THE ROOM NIGHT NUMBER PRESUMABLY COMES FROM VISIT AUSTIN.

OKAY, THANK YOU.

OKAY.

UH, BUT AGAIN, MIGHT I ASK, DO ANY PARTICULAR EVENTS STAND OUT HERE? YES, OF COURSE THE SOUTH BY SOUTHWEST IS OVERWHELMINGLY

[00:10:01]

THE BIGGEST, A COUPLE OTHER REALLY LARGE OR LARGER THAN THE AVERAGE, I GUESS, EVEN THOUGH THEY DON'T COME CLOSE TO SOUTH BY RIGHT SOUTH BY IS, YOU KNOW, UH, OVERWHELMINGLY THE LARGEST EVENT IN TERMS OF ATTENDANCE, I WOULD HOWEVER, UH, CALL YOUR ATTENTION TO THE NUMBER OF HOTEL ROOM NIGHTS THAT ARE ATTRIBUTED TO SOUTH BY, AND THAT IS CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN THE NUMBER OF ATTENDEES.

SO IF I COULD ASK A QUESTION, DID, DID THESE HOTEL ROOM NIGHTS, DO THEY INCLUDE, UM, BOOKING WITH OUTSIDE THE HOTEL BOOKS THAT HAVE BEEN, UM, RESOLVE SPECIFIC SPECIFICALLY FOR THE CONVENTION SUCH AS GENERALLY, GENERALLY THEY ARE BASED ON, AGAIN, THIS IS A REPORT PRODUCED BY THE CONVENTION CENTER DEPARTMENT.

GENERALLY THE ROOM NIGHT ESTIMATES ARE BASED ON THE FREE EVENT BOOKINGS THROUGH VISIT AUSTIN.

AND SO PEOPLE WHO, WHO, UH, AS THE SAYING GOES BOOK OUTSIDE THE BLOCK, RIGHT? THE ROOM BLOCK THAT'S DEDICATED, OR TYPICALLY NOT TRACKED ON LESS FOR THAT EVENT, UH, VISIT AUSTIN, UH, LIFE.

AND SOME OF ITS COUNTERPARTS AROUND THE COUNTRY DOES A POSTED AN AUDIT.

RIGHT.

UH, BUT IT'S, I, I UNDERSTAND THAT THAT'S TYPICALLY NOT DONE BY VISIT AUSTIN HERE.

SO CORRECTION, SO IT DOESN'T INCLUDE LIKE, AND IT ALSO DOESN'T INCLUDE AIRBNB STAYS SOMEWHERE THAT, AND IT DOESN'T REALLY, IT DOES NOT INCLUDE THIRD PARTY, UH, TRAVELOCITY TYPE OF BOOKING EVENTS.

IF, IF INDIVIDUALS BOOK INDEPENDENTLY OF, UH, HOTEL ROOMS THAT ARE ALLOCATED TO THE EVENT, THEN TYPICALLY THEY WON'T BE PICKED UP HERE.

AND WHAT DO YOU KNOW WHAT THE GENERAL PERCENTAGES OF, UH, ROOMS THAT COME IN FROM LIKE A VARIES ENORMOUSLY EVENT BY EVENT? UH, ONE THING I WOULD CALL YOUR ATTENTION TO HERE, WHICH IS PARTICULARLY RELEVANT AND NOTABLE IN THE PACE OF SOUTH BY OF COURSE, IS THE DIFFERENCE IN THE NUMBER OF ROOM NIGHTS RELATIVE TO THE NUMBER OF ATTENDEES.

UH, LET ME, LET ME GIVE YOU ONE EXAMPLE.

IF YOU LOOK, UH, ANOTHER OF THE LARGER EVENTS IN TERMS OF ATTENDEES IS THE 2017 SWE ANNUAL CONFERENCE.

THAT'S THE SOCIETY OF WOMEN ENGINEERS.

AND YOU WILL NOTE THAT THAT SHOWS AN ATTENDANCE OF 14,500 WITH A ROOM NIGHT THAT YOU'RE UP 7,972, UH, IN A SIMILAR, PERHAPS EVEN MORE DRAMATIC FASHION.

IF YOU LOOK DOWN TOWARDS THE BOTTOM, UH, YOU WILL SEE THE, THE DREAM HACK EVENT IN 2018 WITH A TOTAL OF 36,000 ATTENDEES, BUT A LITTLE OVER A THOUSAND ROOM NIGHTS.

SO, UM, I THINK THIS IS PRETTY INTERESTING.

HAVE YOU EVER BEEN TO SOUTH BY WHO HAD EVER ATTENDED SOUTH BY PROFESSOR SCIENTIST? YEAH, SO I'M SURE YOU'VE NOTICED AS I HAVE ONE IN SOUTH BY THERE'S AN AWFUL LOT OF ATTENDEES THAT COME, UM, FROM OTHER COUNTRIES.

I ALWAYS NOTICE WHEN I'M WORKING SOUTH BY THAT, I HEAR A LOT OF BRITISH ACCENTS.

THEY ALWAYS STAND OUT TO ME BECAUSE I'M FROM BRITAIN AND AUSTRALIAN AND VARIOUS.

AND I THINK, UM, YOU KNOW, I THINK THERE'S PROBABLY SOME OTHER THINGS GOING ON IN HERE, AND THIS IS JUST MY SENSE.

I HAVE NO DATA TO BACK THIS UP, BUT AS I THINK ABOUT THIS, IF I WERE TRAVELING FROM THE UK TO ATTEND SOUTH BY SOUTHWEST, I WOULD PROBABLY NOT PICK A PACKAGE WHERE I WOULD BOOK INTO A HILTON OR, UM, YOU KNOW, A MARRIOTT OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT.

I'D BE BECAUSE THAT COST OF THAT FLIGHT IS SO MUCH, I WOULD BE LOOKING AT PROBABLY AIRBNBS OR SOME OTHER, UM, CHEAPER ACCOMMODATION.

WHEREAS WITH DELEGATES, WHEN THEY'RE COMING TO A CONVENTION, THOSE CONVENTIONS ARE USUALLY SELLED SOLD WITH A HOTEL PACKAGE BECAUSE WHEN WE GO TO A CONVENTION, I'VE ALSO BEEN A CONVENTION GOER IN THAT SITUATION.

THAT'S WHEN YOU DO STAY AT A, UH, MORE EXPENSIVE HOTEL, IT'S LIKE, IT'S PART OF THE DEAL.

SO I HOPE I COULDN'T IMAGINE THAT, UM, BECAUSE SOUTH BY IS NOT, YOU'RE NOT TALKING ABOUT LIKE CONVENTION DELEGATES, YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT A DRAWER OF TOURISTS COMING TO SEE ACTS.

THERE IS CERTAINLY A CONVENTION PART OF IT, LIKE THE EDUCATION, THE EDUCATION PART.

BUT I THINK THAT THAT SORT OF SCENARIO PLAYS INTO A LITTLE BIT OF PERHAPS NOT SEEING A COMPARATIVE, UH, HOTEL STATE, UH, IN TERMS OF DELEGATES, WHEN YOU LOOK AT LIKE SOME OF THESE TRADITIONAL,

[00:15:01]

UM, CONVENTIONS.

YES.

YOU CAN SEE THERE'S A HIGHER HOTEL NIGHT BECAUSE THAT'S A HOTEL CONVENTION PACKAGE THAT'S BEEN SOLD AS I SEE IT.

UM, BUT I DO STILL SEE IN THAT COLUMN AND ROOM NIGHTS, SOUTH BY STILL SELLS MORE HOME ROOM NIGHTS IN THESE TRADITIONAL HOTELS THAN ANY OF THESE OTHER, UM, YEAH, I UNDERSTAND AS WELL THAT SOUTH BY IS GOING ON FOR THREE WEEKS PLUS.

SO YOU'RE SEEING THOSE ROOM NIGHTS CONSUMED OVER, OVER ESSENTIALLY ALL OF MARCH.

UM, I THINK THERE ARE A GREAT MANY QUESTIONS TO ASK ABOUT THOSE NUMBERS FOR SOUTH BY YOU WILL NOTE FOR EXAMPLE, THAT THIS HOUSE, THAT 200,000 FIGURE COUNTS AS CONVENTION CENTER ATTENDANCE, UH, AND CLEARLY AS YOU MENTIONED, SOME FRACTION OF SOUTH BY ATTENDEES, UH, ARE THERE FOR THE MUSIC VENUES AND EVENTS.

UH, THERE, THERE IS A RELATED DIMENSION, HOWEVER THAT I WOULD CALL YOUR ATTENTION TO, UH, IF YOU TAKE A LOOK AT THE DREAM HACK, FOR EXAMPLE, GAMING EVENT WITH ITS 36,000 ATTENDEES IT'S ROOM NIGHT NUMBER IS SHOWN IS 1,079.

YEAH.

AGAIN, I THINK THAT'S YOUR AUDIENCE BECAUSE I'VE ALSO WORKED AT DREAMHACK AND THAT IS FULL OF LOTS OF YOUNG PEOPLE WHO ARE MORE INCLINED TO GO TO AN AIRBNB OR SOME OTHER ACCOMMODATION THAT I'VE ALSO BEEN VENTURED THAT IF IT, AS WELL AS THINGS LIKE THE TEXAS SOCIETY OF ARCHITECTS, ANNUAL CONVENTION, AND, UH, A NUMBER OF THE STATE EVENTS THAT MAKE UP MUCH OF THE CONVENTION CENTERS CALENDAR, BUT CERTAINLY FOR DREAMHACK, LOTS OF THE ATTENDEES ARE LOCALS.

THAT IS, THEY ARE WHAT WE CALL DAYTRIPPERS THERE.

THEY ARE PEOPLE WHO ARE ALREADY IN THE, WHO LIVE IN OR AROUND THE AUSTIN METROPOLITAN AREA.

OKAY.

AND SO WHILE YOU SEE VERY LARGE ATTENDANCE NUMBERS IN THOSE CASES ARE THEY ARE NOT NECESSARILY CONSUMING HOTEL ROOMS BECAUSE THEY'RE NOT NECESSARILY VISITING AUSTIN IN ANY SIGNIFICANT SENSE.

ARE YOU MAKING THAT CLAIM ON SOUTH BY SOUTHWEST ALSO? I, I, I THINK I, I'M NOT MAKING THAT CLAIM AT ALL ON SOUTH BY SOUTHWEST, I THINK SOUTH BY SOUTHWEST MERITS.

A GREAT DEAL.

MORE EXAMINATION, FRANKLY.

UH, SO PROFESSOR SANDERS, I'M SORRY.

UM, I THINK THIS IS A REALLY GOOD EXERCISE, BUT, UM, I'M WONDERING, SO THIS IS ONLY ONE FISCAL YEAR OF ROOM NIGHTS AND IT LOOKS LIKE THE, UM, PERHAPS RELATIONSHIP YOU'RE POINTING OUT IS THAT THERE'S NOT A LOT OF CONSISTENCY IN TERMS OF THE NUMBER OF ATTENDEES AND ROOMS DURING ANY GIVEN CONVENTION OR CONFERENCE.

IS THAT FAIR TO SAY? WELL, I WOULD, I WOULD SUGGEST THAT IN A NUMBER OF OCCASIONS, UH, WITH INDIVIDUAL EVENTS, UH, THE ACC IS SEEING AS WITH THINGS LIKE THE TEXAS SOCIETY OF ARCHITECTS OR THE T A S A CONFERENCE OR THE T C E A CONFERENCE, OR THE T A S S E SUMMER WORKSHOP, OR THE TCEQ ENVIRONMENTAL TRADE FAIR, IT SEEING EVENTS THAT ARE STATE EVENTS THAT HAVE SIGNIFICANT LOCAL DRAW, AND THAT DO NOT NECESSARILY REPRESENT IN A SIGNIFICANT VOLUME OF OVERNIGHT STAYS.

SO ARE WE LOOKING TO DISCUSS THIS OR A PRESENTATION? I'M JUST A LITTLE CONFUSED.

NO, YOU'RE STILL IN THE MIDDLE OF THE PRESENTATION.

I JUST THOUGHT IT WOULD BE USEFUL FOR YOU ALL TO SEE, AS WE TALK ABOUT HOW THE CONVENTION CENTER IS PERFORMING AND WHAT THE PERFORMANCE, THE FORECAST PERFORMANCE OF AN EXPANDED, THEN YOU MIGHT BE THAT YOU CONSIDER THE KINDS OF ADVANCED THE KINDS OF ATTENDANCE AND THE KIND OF HOTEL ROOM NIGHT GENERATION THAT THE CENTER IS SEEING THAT, RIGHT? YEP.

SO IN THE INTEREST OF TIME, LET'S MOVE FORWARD IN YOUR PRESENTATION.

THANK YOU.

ARE WE BEING THERE? WE ARE.

UM, SO LET ME GIVE YOU A COUPLE OF EXAMPLES TO FILL OUT SOMETHING OF THE COMPETITIVE POSITION OF THE CENTER.

UH, YOU WILL NOTE THAT THE, THE SWE, THE SOCIETY OF WOMEN ENGINEERS DID IN FACT MEET IN AUSTIN IN 2017.

UH, I JUST HAD WANTED TO SHARE WITH YOU SOME SENSE OF WHERE THAT PARTICULAR CONFERENCE, UH, HAS,

[00:20:01]

HAS BEEN MEETING PRIOR TO AUSTIN AND WHERE IT'S GOING SUBSEQUENTLY.

UH, YOU WILL KNOW, FOR EXAMPLE, IT MET IN, IN ANAHEIM, UH, SHORTLY AFTER AUSTIN.

IT MET IN PHILADELPHIA THE, THE YEAR BEFORE IT WILL BE MEETING IN HOUSTON, LOS ANGELES, CHICAGO.

AND I BELIEVE THAT IF I RECALL CORRECTLY IN ATLANTA, UH, IN 2025, UH, IN, IN THIS CASE, FOR EXAMPLE, UH, THIS PARTICULAR EVENT IS ROTATING, BUT IT'S ROTATING AMONG SOME OF THE LARGEST CONVENTION VENUES IN THE COUNTRY INDEED, IN THE CASE, IN THE CASE OF CHICAGO VIA LARGEST.

AND IN THE CASE OF ATLANTA, THE FOURTH LARGEST, UH, THAT IS THE COMP COMPETITIVE POSITION THAT AUSTIN FINDS ITSELF IN THESE DAYS.

AND, OR AT LEAST DID PRIOR TO THE PANDEMIC, UH, WHERE IT WAS SEEKING TO ATTRACT ROTATING CONFERENCE AND CONVENTION EVENTS, UH, AGAINST THE LARGEST AND MOST COMPETITIVE VENUES IN THE COUNTRY.

UH, A SECOND PIECE OF THIS, WHICH IS ANOTHER PIECE OF THE PANDEMIC IMPACT, IF YOU WILL, UH, THE SPICEWORLD EVENT, WHICH IS, UH, OR THE USERS OF THE SPICEWORKS COMPUTER SOFTWARE PACKAGE, UH, HAS HISTORICALLY BEEN HELD IN AUSTIN.

UH, BUT AS A RESULT OF THE PANDEMIC, SPICEWORLD LIKE A GREAT, MANY OTHER EVENTS, UH, HAS ADOPTED GOING FORWARD A HYBRID FORMAT IN WHICH YOU CAN ATTEND EITHER VIRTUALLY OR IN PERSON, UH, AS MORE AND MORE EVENTS HAVE CHOSEN TO GO TO THIS HYBRID FORMAT.

UH, WHAT WE'VE SEEN IS A CLEAR IMPACT ON THE ATTENDANCE, UH, AT INDIVIDUAL EVENTS IN, UH, IN THE LAST YEAR OR TWO, UH, AND AGAIN, HERE WITH THE, WITH THE AMERICAN VETERINARY MEDICAL ASSOCIATION, UH, I, I SIMPLY WANTED TO POINT OUT THE COMPETITIVE SITUATION THAT, THAT AUSTIN FINDS ITSELF IN, UH, IN WHICH IT'S COMPETING AGAINST SOME, BOTH, SOME LARGER VENUES, UH, AND SOME VENUES THAT HAVE A, UH, A PATTERN OF OFFERING SIGNIFICANT DISCOUNTS AND INCENTIVES, UH, INCLUDING FREE RENT AND OTHER THINGS IN ORDER TO ATTRACT THOSE ADAPTS.

UH, THE VENUE COMPETITION PRIOR TO THE PANDEMIC HAS BEEN DESCRIBED BY OTHER CVBS AS A BUYER'S MARKET.

UH, AND WE HAVE SUBSTANTIAL EVIDENCE OF, UH, THE EXTENT TO WHICH PLACES LIKE PHILADELPHIA AND DENVER AND WASHINGTON, AND AS WELL AS AUSTIN, UH, HAVE BEEN OFFERING SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED RENTS, UH, REBATES FROM LOCAL HOTELS BASED ON ROOM NIGHT CONSUMPTION, UH, AND OTHER INCENTIVES FOR WERE MEETINGS IN RECENT YEARS.

UH, HERE, I JUST WANTED TO POINT OUT BASED ON THAT DATA, THAT COUNCIL MEMBER ALTAR RECEIVED, UH, HOW THE CENTER HAS BEEN PERFORMING RELATIVE TO THOSE FORECASTS IN THE 97 C H JOHNSON REPORT.

UH, YOU MAY RECALL THE JOHNSON FORECAST THAT THE CENTER WOULD SEE OVER 300,000 ANNUAL CONVENTION AND TRADE SHOW WITHIN THESE, UH, AND THAT THE CENTER'S ROOM NIGHT PRODUCTION WOULD BE 332,600, UH, WHILE THE CONVENTION ATTENDEES NUMBER IS IN FACT RELATIVELY CLOSE TO WATCH.

I, IN SOME CASES EXCEEDS WHAT JOHNSON FORECASTS THAT IS EFFECTIVELY ENTIRELY BECAUSE OF SOUTH BY, UH, THE ROOM NIGHT NUMBER HAS COME IN CONSISTENTLY, INCLUDING SOUTH BY WELL BELOW THAT 332,000 FORECAST, UH, AND EXCLUDING THE ROUGHLY 50,000 ROOM NIGHTS THAT ARE ATTRIBUTED TO SOUTH BODY.

UH, THE ROOM NUMBER IS SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN JOHNSON'S FORECASTS.

SO THE EXPANSE, THE LAST EXPANSION NEVER MET THE FORECAST METRICS FOR ATTENDANCE AND ROOM NIGHTS, EXCEPT FOR IN THE CASE OF ATTENDANCE, THE SINGULAR IMPACT

[00:25:01]

IN SOUTH BY SOUTHWEST, WAS IT, WOULD IT, WAS IT YOUR ASSUMPTION THAT IN THE ORIGINAL, UM, PROPOSAL OF THE, THE ATTENDANCE WITH THE EXPANSION THAT THEY INCLUDED SOUTH BY, AS PART OF THAT ANALYSIS, WAS THERE EVER A FEELING THAT WHERE, BUT IT'S AS BEST I CAN DETERMINE SOUTH BY AS ATTENDANCE AND USE OF THE CONVENTION CENTER IN 1996 WAS DECIDEDLY LESS, BUT THAT'S A QUESTION THAT'S BEST POSED TO THE ACC STAFF.

THEY HAVE THE DOCUMENTATION.

PRESUMABLY IT SEEMS THAT, I MEAN, JUST IN MY RECOLLECTION OF LIVING HERE, THAT THAT TIMEFRAME WAS EVEN PROCEEDED WHEN THE TECHNOLOGY SIDE OF THE FESTIVAL HAD REALLY NOT EVEN BLOSSOMED, IT WAS STILL PRETTY MUCH A MUSIC FILM THING EDU HADN'T HAPPENED AND THE TECH SIDE JUST REALLY HADN'T TURNED INTO ANYTHING YET.

SO I THINK THAT IT, IT KIND OF, YES, THE, THE EXPANSION OF SOUTH BY DEFINITELY POURED WATER IN RAIN POSITIVELY ON THE ATTENDEES, BUT IT WAS THE GROWTH OF THAT CONVENTION.

YES.

I THINK THE, THE TECH AND RELATED EVENTS THAT USE THE CONVENTION CENTER, UH, SAW A SIGNIFICANT CLEARLY THOROUGHLY.

I DON'T, AS I RECALL, THEY WERE NOT PART OF, OF SOUTH BY, WELL, I'VE ATTENDED, I ATTENDED SOUTH BY FOR 20 YEARS.

SO I WATCHED IT MORE AMAZINGLY LIKE THE CITY, BY THE WAY.

BUT YEAH, IT DID GROW SUBSTANTIALLY.

IT WAS NOTHING IN THE EARLY DAYS, LIKE IT WAS IN 2019 OR 2018 WHEN PEOPLE WERE LIKE SHOCKED AT THE, WHAT WAS HAPPENING TO THE CITY.

UM, I'M SORRY, WHAT WAS THE ORIGINAL YEAR OF THE, OF THE, UH, INFORMATION FOR THE FORECASTING 97, 97 97? I'M SURE THEY DIDN'T ANTICIPATE THE REFERENT YEAR WAS 96.

YEAH.

BUT TO BE CLEAR, THE PROJECTION WAS BASED ON THE EXPANSION THAT WAS BUILT AND THE FACILITY THAT WE HAVE ON THE GROUND TODAY.

WELL, IT'S LIKE ANY OTHER FORECAST, YOU KNOW, I'M SURE THAT THEY DIDN'T EXPECT THE ECONOMIC DOWNTURN IN 2008 EITHER.

SO, I MEAN, THEY'RE ALL QUALIFYING FORTUNES TO ANY FORECAST YOU DO.

AND I'VE DONE A KAZILLION FORECAST FOR THE HOTEL INDUSTRY IN NINE 11.

I MEAN, THERE'S A LOT OF META GAME CIRCUMSTANCES WHEN YOU LOOK AT THAT TYPE OF THING.

AND SIMILARLY WITH, YOU KNOW, ONE OF THE, I WAS ASKING ABOUT THE AIRBNB, I'M SORRY, GO AHEAD, MR. SANDERS, YOU GOT, OH, WELL, WE'LL TAKE YOU THROUGH THAT.

BUT I THINK IT IS APPROPRIATE TO RAISE QUESTIONS ABOUT THE, THE RELEVANCE OF FORECASTS GIVEN THE LARGER CONTEXT MUCH OF WHICH INVOLVES THE NATURE OF THE NATIONAL ECONOMY.

AND I'LL TALK ABOUT THAT IN JUST A MOMENT, IF THAT'S OKAY.

WELL, AND OBVIOUSLY THE, YOU KNOW, THE NATIONAL ECONOMY AFFECTS THE CONVENTION BUSINESS AND THE HOTEL BUSINESS TRAUMATICALLY ALMOST IN ALMOST.

YEAH.

YOU CAN ALMOST SEE A GRAPH WITH IT SPECIFICALLY.

I'LL BE GLAD TO SHARE THAT IN A MOMENT.

AWESOME.

OKAY.

SO THIS IS THE, UH, THIS IS THE, ALMOST THE PEN ULTIMATE, UM, CONSULTANT STUDY THAT, UH, THAT YOU, YOU HAVE ON THE, THE NOW PROPOSED EXPANSION.

UH, THIS WOULD BE THE ONE FOR, FROM 2020, UH, FROM HBS, UM, SHOWING THE DEMAND HISTORY.

AND AGAIN, YOU WILL KNOW THE FIGURES ON SOUTH BY, I MEAN, IT'S INTRIGUING IN JUST THIS PERIOD FROM 2015 TO 2019 SOUTH BY ATTENDANCE, UH, AT LEAST ATTRIBUTED, UM, ALMOST DOUBLED AND THAT INDEPENDENT OF THAT CONVENTION AND TRADE SHOW ATTENDANCE, UH, HAS, UH, A CONSISTENT AVERAGED UNDER 200,000 A YEAR.

UH, AND THE PROJECTION IN, FROM HVS IN THIS PARTICULAR REPORT, THE 2021, UH, WAS ESSENTIALLY I THINK, UH, UH, 70 PLUS THINGS ABOUT 77% INCREASE, UH, IN CONVENTION ATTENDANCE FROM THAT BASE FIGURE OF 172,000 IN 20 24, 2 IN EXCESS OF 300,000 IN 2033.

UH, IT IS IN INTRIGUING TO ME THAT THE 2033 NUMBER IS ACTUALLY SLIGHTLY BELOW WHAT JOHNSON HAD,

[00:30:01]

UH, AGAIN, INDEPENDENT OF SOUTHLAND, UH, WHAT JOHNSON HAD FORECAST IN 97 UH, W LET ME PROVIDE A LITTLE BIT OF COMPARATIVE CONTACTS.

UH, AUSTIN IS OF COURSE NOT THE ONLY COMMUNITY THAT IS CONSIDERING PLANNING OR IN THE PROCESS OF DOING A MAJOR CONVENTION CENTER EXPANSION.

UH, THE CITY OF DALLAS IS PLANNING A MAJOR REDEVELOPMENT AND EXPANSION OF ITS KAY BAILEY HUTCHISON CONVENTION CENTER.

UH, AND THIS IS FROM A PRESENTATION BY THE CITY STAFF, UH, LAST FALL.

LET ME SHOW YOU WHAT DALLAS IS TALKING ABOUT.

UH, THEY'RE TALKING ABOUT, UH, UH, TOTAL, ESSENTIALLY A REDEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS EXPANSION WITH A PRICE TAG IN EXCESS OF $4 BILLION.

UH, AND THEIR CONSULTANT FORECAST IS THAT THIS PROJECT WILL NEARLY DOUBLE ANNUAL ATTENDANCE, UH, AND, UH, EFFECTIVELY DOUBLE THE ANNUAL HOTEL ROOM NIGHT GENERATION, UH, LIKE, UH, KAY BAILEY HUTCHISON CONVENTION CENTER, BASED ON THEIR CONSULTANT STUDY, UH, A CONSULTANT STUDY, WHICH BY THE WAY THEY HAVE YET TO RELEASE AND LET ME TALK A LITTLE BIT ABOUT WHERE THINGS HAVE BEEN FOR SOME SPECIFIC EVENTS.

WE WILL NOT GET A VERY BROAD SENSE FOR INDIVIDUAL CENTERS, UH, UNTIL WE CAN LOOK AT ALL OF, UH, OF THIS YEAR.

UH, BUT I WANTED TO SHARE SOME INDIVIDUAL EVENTS, ATTENDANCE HISTORIES, WHICH I THINK WILL ILLUMINATE SOME OF THAT LARGER, UM, ECONOMIC BROADER NATIONAL ECONOMIC IMPACT ON CONVENTION ATTENDANCE, HISTORY.

UH, THESE ARE THE ATTENDANCE FIGURES FOR THE ANNUAL MEETING OF THE RADIOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF NORTH AMERICA, THE PROFESSIONAL ORGANIZATION OF RADIOLOGISTS.

THEY MEET EVERY YEAR IN MCCORMICK PLACE IN CHICAGO AND HAVE FOR DECADES.

UH, I WOULD CALL YOUR ATTENTION TO TWO PARTICULAR THINGS HERE, UM, AT VSI D WHAT WE HAD TALKED ABOUT ABOUT, ON THE IMPACT OF THE LARGER ECONOMY.

YOU WILL NOTE THAT IN THE WAKE OF THE 2008 RECESSION, UH, RSNH ATTENDANCE, UH, BEGAN TO SLIDE, UH, AND SLID MORE DRAMATICALLY IN THE YEARS IMMEDIATELY PRIOR TO THE PANDEMIC AND NEVER FULLY RECOVERED TO THE LEVEL PRIOR TO 2008, UH, THEIR MEETING IS TYPICALLY HELD IN LATE NOVEMBER OR EARLY DECEMBER IN CHICAGO.

AND, UH, YOU WILL NOTE THAT RED SQUARE, WHICH SHOWS THE 2021 ATTENDANCE WITH ITS FAIRLY DRAMATIC DROP UH, THIS IS THE ATTENDANCE HISTORY FOR CES, THE CONSUMER ELECTRONICS SHOW HELD IN LAS VEGAS EVERY YEAR.

UH, AGAIN, I THINK YOU'LL SEE THE PATTERN HERE OF A VERY SHARP DECREASE, UH, AS A RESULT OF THE 2008 RECESSION, UH, BECAUSE OF CES'S ROLE AND, UH, EXHIBITOR INTERESTS.

THERE WAS A SIGNIFICANT RECOVERY, UH, THAT WE DIDN'T SEE IN THE RSNH CASE, ALTHOUGH IT, IT, AGAIN, IT'S INTRIGUING THAT ATTENDANCE BEGAN TO SLIDE IN THE YEARS IMMEDIATELY PRIOR TO THE PANDEMIC, UH, AND THE IMPACT, UH, OR CES, WHICH THE LAST OF WHICH WAS HELD IN JANUARY OF THIS YEAR, UH, SAW A QUITE DRAMATIC DECLINE, UH, FROM ROUGHLY 170,000 PRIOR YEARS, UH, TO ABOUT 42,000, I THINK FINALLY HERE, THE WORLD OF CONCRETE TRADE SHOW, AGAIN, HELD IN LAS VEGAS AT THE LAS VEGAS CONVENTION CENTER, UH, WITH THE IMPACT OF 2008, CLEARLY VISIBLE, UH, AND A PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL DROP, UH, IN THE SPRING

[00:35:01]

OF THIS YEAR.

SO, YOU KNOW, WHAT, WHAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING, UH, HERE AND IN DATA THAT I USE TO TRACK ME ATTENDANCE AT THE, THE CONVENTION ATTENDANCE AT THE COUNTRY'S FOUR LARGEST VENUES, UH, MCCORMICK PLACE IN CHICAGO, THE ORANGE COUNTY CENTER IN ORLANDO, THE LAS VEGAS CONVENTION CENTER AND ATLANTA GEORGIA WORLD CONGRESS CENTER.

UM, THERE, THERE WAS A QUITE DRAMATIC DROP IN ATTENDANCE AS A, OF THE 2008 RECESSION, UH, THAT IN THE AGGREGATE FOR THOSE CENTERS AND A GREAT MANY INDIVIDUAL EVENTS AS WORLD WITH CONCRETE, UH, THAT RECESSION DROP WAS NEVER FULLY RECOVERED PRIOR TO 2019.

AND THE IMPACT OF THE PANDEMIC AND RELATED ECONOMIC DISLOCATION HAS CLEARLY BEEN TO, UH, TO HAVE A SUBSTANTIAL IMPACT ON ATTENDANCE WITH NOTABLE DECREASES.

UH, AND THAT IS AS BEST I CAN DETERMINE.

AND I TRY ALMOST ON A DAILY BASIS TO TRACK INDIVIDUAL EVENTS THAT MAJOR VENUES, UH, SEEMS TO BE QUITE CONSISTENT.

UM, ARE THERE ANY QUESTIONS ABOUT THAT? I GUESS I HAVE ONE, UM, AS IT RELATES TO THESE THREE EXAMPLES OF THESE, THESE THREE, UH, CONVENTIONS, UH, PRIMARILY IF I'M UNDERSTANDING WHAT THAT PART OF YOUR, WHAT YOU'RE DEMONSTRATING IS THAT POST COVID DEFINITELY SHOWS A SUPPRESSION OF THESE, THESE THREE PARTICULAR MEETINGS.

AND YOU WOULD, I THINK USE THAT AS AN EXAMPLE THAT THE INDUSTRY CONVENTION INDUSTRY AT LARGE IS SUPPRESSED POST COVID.

THESE ARE THREE JUST EXAMPLES.

WHAT, WHAT WE'RE NOT CLEAR ON FROM THAT IS WHAT THE, WHAT DOES IT LOOK LIKE ON THE GO FORWARD IN TERMS OF WHAT ARE, WHAT ARE WE THINKING IS GOING TO HAPPEN ONCE WE GET ON DEEPER ON THE OTHER SIDE OF WHAT'S HAPPENING WITH OMNICOM AND, OR THESE OTHER THINGS, OR WHAT IS THE IMPACT OVERALL OF THIS PANDEMIC ON THE MEETING INDUSTRY? I MEAN, I SEE THIS AS YOU'RE SHOWING AN EXAMPLE, BUT DO YOU HAVE ANY OTHER THOUGHTS ON THAT? YEAH, I MEAN, I CAN, I'M PLEASED TO SHARE MY OPINION AND SPECULATION ABOUT THE FUTURE, BUT JUST BEAR IN MIND, OF COURSE, THAT I CAN, YOU KNOW, I DON'T PURPORT TO HAVE A, UH, AND ALL KNOWING CRYSTAL BALL, IF THAT'S OKAY.

SURE.

UM, THERE ARE TWO POINTS THAT I'D LIKE TO MAKE HERE.

UM, ONE, UH, OVER THE LAST TWO DECADES, WE'VE SEEN A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN THE SUPPLY OF CONVENTION CENTER SPACE AROUND THE COUNTRY.

UH, THERE HAVE BEEN ENTIRELY NEW CENTERS COMPLETED, UH, IN PLACES LIKE NASHVILLE.

AND THAT'S AN EXAMPLE THAT'S OFTEN POINTED TO, UH, CLEVELAND, UH, ET CETERA.

UH, WE'VE SEEN THROUGH THE TWO THOUSANDS MAJOR EXPANSIONS, UH, IN PLACES LIKE LAS VEGAS AND ORLANDO THAT EFFECTIVELY DOUBLED THE SIZE OF THE, THOSE TWO FACILITIES.

UH, WE SAW AN EXPANSION IN AUSTIN.

WE'VE SEEN TWO SERIAL IN SAN ANTONIO.

UH, WE SAW AN EXPANSION IN SAN DIEGO AND EXPANSION IN ANAHEIM AND EXPANSION IN SAN FRANCISCO, AN EXPANSION IN SEATTLE.

I MEAN THIS VERY LONG LIST OF THESE, UH, AND YET WHAT IS STRIKING IN THIS CASE IS IF WE TRACK THOSE, THEN YOU, WHAT WE DON'T NECESSARILY SEE IS ANY CONSISTENT INCREASE IN THEIR CONVENTION AND TRADE SHOW ATTENDANCE.

UH, IN FACT, IN A VENUE LIKE MCCORMICK PLACE IN CHICAGO THAT HAS DONE A MAJOR EXPANSIONS AND ADDED TWO PUBLICLY FINANCED HOTELS ADJACENT TO THE CENTER OF PARALLEL TO YOUR, UH, HILTON WITH ITS PUBLIC OWNERSHIP, UH, WHAT WE'VE SEEN AS A CONSISTENT DECREASE IN CONVENTION ATTENDANCE.

SO WHAT WE HAVE AN ENVIRONMENT WHERE THE MARKET HAS BECOME INCREDIBLY COMPETITIVE AT THE SAME TIME.

IT'S VERY CLEAR TO ME THAT THAT 2008 HAD AN ENORMOUS IMPACT ON ATTENDANCE PATTERNS WITH SOME NOTABLE EXCEPTIONS ATTENDANCE DROPPED, AND IT SIMPLY NEVER FULLY CAME BACK.

UM, THAT THAT 2080 IMPACT OF COURSE, WAS,

[00:40:01]

UH, WAS THE IMPACT OF AN ECONOMIC RECESSION.

IT WAS NOT THE IMPACT OF A PUBLIC HEALTH EMERGENCY, LIKE THE PANDEMIC.

UH, BUT I THINK THERE IS INCREASING EVIDENCE THAT THE IMPACT OF THE PANDEMIC IS IN PUBLIC HEALTH TERMS, UH, IN TERMS OF THE, THE IMPACT OF THE COVID VIRUS, UH, IS CONTINUING RATHER LONGER THAN, THAN ONE MIGHT HAVE ANTICIPATED, UH, SIX MONTHS OR A YEAR OR TWO EARLIER.

AND THE ECONOMIC DISLOCATION AND RELATED IMPACTS IN PARTICULAR, THE SHIFT TO INCREASING USE OF THE KINDS OF VIRTUAL ACTIVITY WORK MEETING THAT WE'RE DEMONSTRATING TODAY, UH, IS, IS SIGNIFICANT, UH, BASED SOLELY ON WHAT I'VE SEEN ABOUT MEETING ATTENDANCE AND CENTER PERFORMANCE AFTER 2008, THAT SUGGESTS TO ME INDEPENDENT OF THE PUBLIC HEALTH DIMENSIONS THAT ATTENDANCE WILL IN THE AGGREGATE BE NEGATIVELY AFFECTED.

AND IN PARTICULAR AS A GREAT MANY EVENTS SWITCH TO SOME KIND OF HYBRID FORM THAT THAT WILL HAVE N AND A CLEAR AND DIRECT NEGATIVE IMPACT ON I'M GOING TO PAUSE YOU THERE.

I JUST WANT TO GET THE COMMISSION AS A POINT OF ORDER.

THAT'S BEEN PASSED FROM STAFF.

UM, IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS, CAN YOU GET MY ATTENTION SO THAT I CAN GIVE YOU THE FLOOR SO THAT WE CAN ANNOUNCE YOU FOR THE RECORD, AND ALSO TO BE SURE THAT YOU DO HAVE YOUR MIC ON AND THAT YOU HAVE IT CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE HEARD? CAUSE SHE'S HAVING DIFFICULTY HEARING SOME OF OUR QUESTIONS, UH, COMMISSIONER BAILEY.

DID YOU HAVE A QUESTION? I PAUSED YOU THERE FOR A MINUTE BECAUSE I WANTED TO ANNOUNCE YOU, WE WERE TALKING ABOUT, UH, THE IMPACT OF THE PANDEMIC WAS THE LAST POINT WE WERE TALKING ABOUT.

SO COMMISSIONER BAILEY.

YEAH.

SO I I'M ACTUALLY, I WAS THINKING ABOUT THE, THE HYBRID AND VIRTUAL COMMENT THAT YOU MADE.

UH, IT'S JUST A, IT'S A COMMENT I'LL, I'LL, UH, I'M SAYING IT TO YOU AS IF WE WERE HAVING A CONVERSATION FOR THE REST OF MY FOLKS UP HERE.

I MEAN, I'VE DONE.

I WENT DELL COMPUTER CORPORATION IS AT SOMEONE I DO A LOT OF WORK WITH AND DID COMPLETELY THROUGH THE PANDEMIC.

AND, YOU KNOW, I'VE WORKED AND LEARNED A LOT ABOUT HOW THE PANDEMIC WAS AFFECTING DELL IN TERMS OF POSITIVELY PEOPLE SETTING UP THEIR HOME, YOU KNOW, BUYING NEW COMPUTERS, EVERYBODY'S ZOOMING AND ALL THE THINGS HAPPENING, BRING THIS TO THEIR LIFE.

AND I WOULD SAY THAT SOMEWHERE INTO ABOUT, I DON'T KNOW, A YEAR INTO, AS WE WERE HEADING INTO THE SECOND YEAR, WORKING FROM HOME, I WAS TALKING TO THE DELL FOLKS AND THEY WERE JUST ADMINISTRATING TONS AND TONS.

I MEAN, JUST HUNDREDS OF VIRTUAL WAS GOING ON THROUGH THE COMPANY.

AND THEY BASICALLY TURNED AROUND AT ONE POINT ME AND SAID THAT, YOU KNOW, THERE'S A BACKLASH HAPPENING THAT THERE'S, THAT THE WHOLE IDEA OF DOING VIRTUAL WAS STARTING TO HIT A WALL THAT PEOPLE WERE OVERWHELMED AND GETTING BURNED OUT FROM IT AND TIRED OF IT.

AND THAT THEY, THEY WERE SEEING A SUPPRESSION THAT PEOPLE WERE LITERALLY TIRED OF MEETING THAT WAY, WHICH WAS PROBABLY NOT A LOT DIFFERENT THAN MY KIDS WERE TIRED OF DOING VIRTUAL FROM SCHOOL.

THEY HATED IT AND THEY DIDN'T FOCUS.

SO I'M, I'M JUST SAYING ANECDOTALLY THAT THE CONVERSATION ABOUT PEOPLE WANTING TO RATHER MEET MEETING THROUGH THEIR COMPUTERS VERSUS RATHER MEETING IN PERSON AND SOCIALIZING TOO.

I THINK THERE ARE A LOT OF OPINIONS ON THAT OUT THERE.

AND THERE'S DIFFERENT FORMS OF EVIDENCE ABOUT WHERE ARE WE GOING TO BE SOCIETALY AND ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS AND WHETHER OR NOT WE'RE ALL COMFORTABLE TALKING TO SCREENS AS PART OF OUR BUSINESS AND SOCIAL LIFE.

NO, I, I CAN'T DISAGREE.

OKAY.

UM, ALL AGAIN, ALL I WOULD SUGGEST IS, UH, TO THE EXTENT THAT THAT IS AN ALTERNATIVE AVAILABLE FOR MEETINGS, IT, IT MAY IMPACT MAYBE LESS ABOUT HOW INDIVIDUALLY WE ARE.

UH, WE ARE BURNED OUT ON, ON VIRTUAL CONNECTION AND COMMUNICATION.

UH, AND TO SOME DEGREE, THE EXTENT TO WHICH AN AFFIRM LIKE DELL, UH, IS PREPARED TO SUPPORT ITS ATTENDEES.

AND IN GOING TO PROFESSIONAL CONFERENCES, GIVEN COST ABSENCE FROM, UH, FROM WORK, ET CETERA, WHEN A VIRTUAL ALTERNATIVE IS AVAILABLE.

SO IT'S NOT SIMPLY AN INDIVIDUAL DECISION, IT'S A BUSINESS DECISION.

OKAY.

I RECOGNIZE THIS COMMISSIONER CANDIDATE, UH, IT'S KIND OF A FOLLOW-UP QUESTION TO COMMISSIONER BAILEY'S.

UM, HE WAS ASKING YOU FOR YOUR SENSE OF THE FUTURE, WHICH YOU, YOU GAVE A DISCLAIMER, YOU'RE NOT GONNA KNOW FOR SURE WITH CRYSTAL BALL, BUT YOU, I THINK YOU POINTED OUT THAT THE

[00:45:01]

SUPPLY OF CONVENTION CENTER SPACE IS INCREASING.

THAT'S PROBABLY A FACT AND THAT THE ATTENDANCE HAS BEEN DOWN IN RECENT YEARS.

I'M ASSUMING THAT'S A FACT, BUT IF TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WHAT'S GOING ON IN THE FUTURE, ARE YOU LOOKING AT THE DEMAND? WE WE'VE RECEIVED INPUT AT SOME OF THE MEETINGS THAT THE DEMAND IS RAMPING BACK UP FOR CONVENTION CENTERS.

AND I DON'T KNOW IF YOUR ANALYSIS, I ASSUME YOUR ANALYSIS HAS ADDRESSED IT, BUT THAT MIGHT BE A PART OF TRYING TO GET A SENSE OF WHAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN IN THE FUTURE.

EVEN IF THE SPACES ARE MORE ABUNDANT AND EVEN IF ATTENDANCE WAS DOWN IN THE PAST, IT COULD CHANGE IF DEMAND IS INCREASING, OF COURSE, BUT, BUT WHEN YOU SAY DEMAND, WHAT DOES THAT MEAN? I, YOU KNOW, THE DEMAND IN, IN THIS CASE, AND I DON'T MEAN TO BE DIFFICULT ABOUT THIS DEMAND IS VERY, IT'S A VERY AMORPHOUS CONCEPT IN THIS BUSINESS.

DOES THAT MEAN EVENTS? OUR EVENTS ARE, ARE SOLICITING THE AUSTIN CONVENTION CENTER.

DOES THAT MEAN THE VISIT AUSTIN'S BOOKING NUMBERS LOOK LIKE THEY'RE INCREASING? YOU KNOW, I DON'T, I DON'T KNOW WHAT THAT MEANS.

PART OF THE PROBLEM WE HAVE IS THAT IT'S CLEAR.

I THINK FROM THE EXAMPLES I'VE SHARED AND FROM WHAT I SEE IN OTHER INDIANS, I DON'T HAVE ACCESS TO BOOK TO CURRENT BOOKING DATA FROM VISIT AUSTIN.

UH, I THINK IT'S CLEAR THAT THE, THE ROOM NIGHT DEMAND ESTIMATES FOR INDIVIDUAL EVENTS GOING FORWARD IS, IS RATHER LESS IN MOST CASES THAN IT HAS BEEN HISTORICALLY.

SO WHEN YOU SAY THERE'S DEMAND, I'M JUST NOT SURE WHAT YOU MEAN.

WELL, I'M ASSUMING AS A PROFESSOR IN THIS SPACE, YOU MIGHT HAVE AN UNDERSTANDING AND I'M WONDERING IF YOU'VE SOMEHOW FACTORED SOME UNDERSTANDING INTO HOW YOU'RE LOOKING AT THIS QUESTION OF WHAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN IN THE FUTURE, BUT IF YOU DON'T KNOW WHAT IT MEANS AND YOU HAVEN'T FACTORED IT IN ABSOLUTELY.

I MEAN, WHAT I SEE ARE FOLKS, VARIOUS SPOKESPEOPLE IN THE INDUSTRY, UH, WHO ROUTINELY MAKE ARGUMENTS, UH, THAT FOLKS LOVE TO MEET FACE TO FACE THAT NOTHING CAN REPLACE FACE-TO-FACE MEETINGS, UH, THAT, THAT, THAT THE DEMAND WILL INEVITABLY GO BACK TO WHAT IT WAS PRE PANDEMIC.

UH, AT ALL I WOULD VENTURE TO SAY IS IF YOU ASK MY OPINION BASED ON THE DATA THAT I'VE SEEN AND WHAT I'VE SEEN IN TERMS OF THE COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE OF MAJOR VENUES ACROSS THE U S BETWEEN 2008 AND 2019, I DON'T ANTICIPATE THAT AGGREGATE ATTENDANCE WILL BE INCREASING AT THE VERY LEAST.

I ANTICIPATE EVEN IF THINGS GO BACK IN ATTENDANCE TERMS IN THE AGGREGATE TO 2019, THAT ATTENDANCE IS GOING TO BE SPREAD ACROSS A GREAT MANY NEW AND EXPANDED CENTERS.

YOU KNOW, THE QUESTION HERE, WHICH IS WHAT I'M PREPARED TO ADDRESS IN A MOMENT WITH THE REST OF THIS PRESENTATION, UH, IS WHAT HAPPENS WHEN AUSTIN EXPANDS AND DALLAS EXPANDS AND INEVITABLY DOZENS OF OTHER CENTERS.

EXPAND.

THANK YOU.

I THINK WE HAVE A QUESTION FROM COMMISSIONER BUNCH.

DID YOU HAVE, UH, YES, COMMISSIONER BUNCH.

YOU HAVE THE FLOOR, BUT YOUR MIC ON, THANK YOU.

THANK YOU, MADAM CHAIR.

AND, AND, AND MAYBE YOU'RE GOING TO GET TO IT GIVEN THE SLIDE THAT'S UP NOW, BUT I HAD SOME VERY SPECIFIC QUESTIONS ABOUT HVS BECAUSE IT SEEMS LIKE THE CONVENTION CENTER STAFF IS NOW ASKING US TO TAKE THIS UPDATED DEMAND PROJECTION AS BEING SOMETHING THAT WE AND THE CITY AND TAXPAYER SHOULD RELY UPON SOME.

SO MY FIRST QUESTION IS, CAN YOU ESTIMATE HOW MANY HVS CONVENTION CENTER DEMAND PROJECTION REPORTS YOU'VE REVIEWED, UH, AND OF THOSE, HOW MANY PROJECT, UM, MAJOR INCREASES IN ATTENDANCE AND IN, IN ROOM NIGHTS, IF THE CONVENTION CENTER THAT'S BEING LOOKED AT AS EXPANDED, AND THEN THE THIRD QUESTION OF THOSE, HOW MANY OF THOSE PROJECTIONS HAVE ACTUALLY EVER BEEN MET OR EXCEEDED, UH, COMMISSIONER MY, I MIGHT I ASK YOUR INDULGENCE FOR A FEW

[00:50:01]

MINUTES AND I'LL LET ME RUN YOU THROUGH THE MATERIAL.

I'VE GOT READY TO GO NOW, AND I'LL BE GLAD TO ADDRESS THOSE QUESTIONS AT THE END, CAUSE I THINK THAT WILL ANSWER A GREAT MANY OF THOSE.

ALL RIGHT.

AND, UH, COMMISSIONER SHANNON HAD A QUESTION AND MAYBE A SIMILAR ANSWER, BUT I'LL GIVE HIM THE FLOOR.

YEAH, NO.

SO MY, MY QUESTION DEALS WITH, SO YOU SHOWED YOUR ANALYSIS OVER, LIKE THE LAST 14 YEARS, SINCE 2008 WITH I TAKE IT, YOU'RE SUGGESTING THAT ROOM ATTENDANCE HAS BEEN FLAT OR NOT INCREASING OR DECREASING IN FACT, UM, BUT YET NUMEROUS EXPANSIONS OF CONVENTION CENTERS HAVE BEEN UNDERTAKEN AND THEY ARE BY AND LARGE IS I UNDERSTAND FINANCE THROUGH PUBLIC FINANCE BONDS THAT HAVE SOPHISTICATED ANALYSIS AS TO WHETHER THEY'RE PUTTING THEIR MONEY WHERE THEIR MOUTH IS.

THEY CERTAINLY EXPECT TO RETURN.

EXCUSE ME, CONDITIONER.

I'M SORRY.

HAVE YOU, HAVE YOU FINISHED? NO, I'M GETTING READY TO FRONT OF THE HEAD.

I'M SORRY.

I GUESS I, I QUESTION, AND IN THE CASE OF THE AUSTIN CONVENTION, EXP EXPANSION, IT IS ONLY GOING TO TAKE PLACE IF BONDS ARE SOLD IN ORDER TO FINANCE IT.

UM, AND THERE'S AN ANALYSIS THAT THESE INVESTMENT COMPANIES AND INVESTMENT BANKERS MAKE AS TO WHETHER IT'S A GOOD DEAL.

THEY THINK IT WILL BE FEASIBLE TO EXPAND.

AND YET OVER THE LAST 14 YEARS, THERE HAVE BEEN NUMEROUS PROJECTS WHERE THESE INVESTMENT BANKS AND WHATNOT HAVE SIGNED OFF ON THESE PROJECTS.

AND TO MY KNOWLEDGE, NONE OF THEM HAVE DEFAULTED ME TO ADDRESS THAT NOW COMMISSIONER.

SURE.

OKAY.

UM, BUT YOU ARE CORRECT IN YOUR CONCLUSION THAT BY AND LARGE, THESE PUBLICLY FINANCE CENTERS, AS WELL AS PUBLICLY FINANCED HOTELS, LIKE AUSTIN'S HILTON AND PREVIOUSLY SAN ANTONIO'S GRANDPA, UH, OR THE OMNI IN DALLAS, UH, HAVE BEEN DONE WITH BOND ISSUES THAT HAVE BEEN SOLD IN THE, IN THE BOND MARKET, UH, AND THAT HAVE HAVE IN GENERAL, UH, SUCCEEDED.

NOW THERE HAVE BEEN, PARTICULARLY DURING THE PANDEMIC, SOME CLEAR ISSUES WITH THE PERFORMANCE OF THOSE THAT HAS REQUIRED REFINANCINGS AND REARRANGEMENTS.

UH, BUT YEAH, ALL THE BOND MARKET IS OPEN TO FINANCING CONVENTION CENTER EXPANSIONS.

UH, THE PROBLEM IS I THINK THE FUNDAMENTAL BASIS ON WHICH YOU'RE ASSESSING ME, UM, INVARIABLY, THOSE BOND ISSUES FOR CONVENTION CENTERS HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH THE FINANCIAL OR PERFORMANCE BEHAVIOR OF THE CONVENTION CENTER ITSELF.

THAT IS, THEY ARE FINANCED.

TYPICALLY IT VARIES COMMUNITY BY COMMUNITY, BY VISITOR BASED TAXES THAT AFFECTIVELY IMPACT EVERY AND ANY VISITOR TO THE COMMUNITY.

I MEAN, YOUR HOTEL OCCUPANCY TAX, THAT'S WHY THAT WAS USED TO FINANCE THE LAST EXPANSION OF THE CENTER.

UH, THE VOTER APPROVED 2% TAX ALONG WITH THE WALLER CREEK PROJECT IS SUPPORTED BY A CITY-WIDE HOTEL, OCCUPANCY TAX.

I MEAN, THE CONVENTION CENTERS PER PORTION OF THAT HOTEL ACTIVITY COULD BE, AND OFTEN IS IN MOST CITIES, TINY, UH, OFTEN BETWEEN FIVE AND 10% OF AGGREGATE HOTEL DEMAND.

I MEAN, SIMPLY PUT THE CONVENTION CENTER COULD SEE NO INCREASE IN BUSINESS, FOLLOWING AN EXPANSION, AND THAT HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH THE FINANCIAL BACKING OF THE BONDS ISSUED FOR THAT EXPANSION.

IN FACT, THE BOND MARKET WOULD NOT, EXCEPT IN MY JUDGMENT, AN ISSUE THAT WAS BACKED SOLELY BY THE ASSUMPTION THAT OF CONVENTION CENTER WOULD SEE MORE BUSINESS, UH, PROFESSOR HAYWOOD, IF WE'RE GOING TO STOP YOU THERE FOR A SECOND, I SEE THE COMMISSIONER REEDY HAS HIS HAND RAISED, BUT, UH, I ALSO WANTED TO POINT OUT TO EVERYBODY THAT I SEE THAT THIS SLIDE WE'RE LOOKING AT IS ONE OF 55 AND IT IS FOUR O'CLOCK.

SO WE MAY WANT TO CONSIDER LETTING PROFESSOR HAYWOOD CONTINUE WITH HIS PRESENTATION.

IF QUESTIONS COME UP TO YOUR MIND, JOT THEM DOWN AND

[00:55:01]

LETS MR. SANDERS CONTINUE.

AND WE'LL FOLLOW UP WITH QUESTIONS AT THE END, IS THAT, AND I DON'T MEAN TO CUT YOU OFF COMMISSIONER REEDY, IF YOU HAVE, I HAVE ONE COMMENT TO CLARIFY IN SUPPORT OF THE PROFESSOR'S POINT AND THAT DETECTIVE COMPTROLLER POINTED OUT IN 2018 THAT THE CONVENTION CENTER, WHILE IT ONLY GENERATES BY 3% OF ROOM NIGHTS, WE DEVOTE 70% OF HOTEL TAX TO IT.

SO WE ARE SUBSIDIZING THOSE BOND ISSUANCES.

THEY ARE NOT DEPENDENT ON THE CONVENTIONS PERFORMANCE AT ALL, BUT THE OVERALL TOURISM OF THE CITY, UH, WHETHER OR NOT IT TOUCHES THE CONVENTION CENTER.

SO THAT'S CONCRETE NUMBERS BASED ON HIS POINT.

OKAY, THANK YOU.

SO, UH, LET'S, UH, HAND THE FLOOR BACK TO PROFESSOR SANDERS AND PROFESSOR SANDERS, IF YOU CAN GET THROUGH AS MUCH OF YOUR PRESENTATION AND WE'LL TRY TO HOLD OUT QUESTIONS AND MOVE THROUGH THIS RATHER MORE BRISKLY.

I THINK THAT WOULD, THAT WOULD WORK FOR ALL OF US.

UM, WHAT I'D LIKE TO DO FOR THE NEXT FEW MINUTES IS FOCUS ON THE, UH, TWO SERIAL HVS REPORTS, UH, OF TOM , UH, DONE, UM, THE PROPOSED EXPANSION PROJECT, UH, STARTING WITH THIS ONE FROM JUNE OF, UH, OF 2020.

UH, AND I HAD SHOWN YOU THIS PREVIOUSLY ON THE DEMAND HISTORY, NOTING THE IMPACT OF, UH, SOUTH BY ON THAT, UH, THAT BOTTOM AND THE, UH, THE CONVENTION ATTENDANCE HISTORY.

UH, THE FORECAST HERE IN 2020 BEING, UH, UH, ROUGHLY 75, IF I RECALL CORRECTLY FOR SAY AN INCREASE IN CONVENTION ATTENDANCE, UH, TO A TOTAL IN EXCESS OF 300,000, UH, UH, AS WELL AS THE NOTE IN THAT 2020 STUDY, THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE PANDEMIC HAD BEEN CONTAINED AND THAT EVENTS AND ATTENDEES WILL RECOVER TO HISTORIC LEVELS.

UH, AND, AND AGAIN, I THINK THAT IS, UH, THAT, THAT, THAT IS AN ASSUMPTION THAT IS OPEN TO SOME QUESTION CURRENTLY.

UH, THIS IS THE UPDATED HVS STUDY THAT I THINK YOU RECEIVED IN, IN YOUR MADY PACKETS, UH, FROM DECEMBER OF 2021.

UH, LET ME POINT OUT THERE IS A SLIGHT DECREASE HERE, UH, IN, UH, HOST EXPANSION ESTIMATE OF CONVENTION ATTENDANCE, UH, DOWN FROM A LITTLE OVER 300,000 TO 282,000, ALTHOUGH THAT CLEARLY RECOMMEND REPRESENTS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE FROM THE BASELINE PRE PANDEMIC NUMBER OF 172,000.

UH, IT'S ALSO ASSUMED THAT SOUTH BY SOUTHWEST WILL EXPAND AS WELL.

UH, BUT WHAT IS PARTICULARLY NOTABLE IN THE DECEMBER, 2021 REPORT, UH, IS WHAT WAS NOT IN THE PREVIOUS REPORT, AND THAT IS A FORECAST OF HOTEL ROOM NIGHT GENERATION OR DEMAND FROM THE EXPANSION.

UH, AND YOU WILL NOTE HERE ON THOSE TWO FAR RIGHT COLUMNS, THE FORECAST THAT BY US STABILIZE THE YEAR, UH, VARYING, DEPENDING UPON THE CONSTRUCTION PHASING OF THE EXPANSION THAT THE CENTER WILL PRODUCE IN EXCESS OF 490,000 DANIEL WHO TELLS HIM NOT RELATIVE TO THE CENTER'S HISTORIC PERFORMANCE, UH, THAT'S A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE.

UH, AND THE, THE FORECAST OF THAT SIGNIFICANT INCREASE SEEMS BASED ON THE, AND THIS LANGUAGE IS JUST TAKEN DIRECTLY FROM THAT 2021 HVS REPORT, UH, THAT THE EXPANSION OF THE ACC WOULD ENABLE IT TO HOST MORE SIMULTANEOUS EVENTS, AS WELL AS LARGER EVENTS AND ALLOW IT TO COMPETE MORE EFFECTIVELY FOR BUSINESS AGAINST STATE AND NATIONAL COMPETITORS.

AND, AND AGAIN, HERE, LET ME SHOW YOU IN, IN COMPARISON OF THE KIND OF INCREASE THAT WE'RE TALKING ABOUT HERE, UH, AND THAT IS A SUBSTANTIALLY GREATER THAN DOUBLING THE CENTER'S PREVIOUS PERFORMANCE MEAN THAT THAT IS A WHOPPING INCREASE THAT'S BEING FORECAST HERE.

AND AGAIN, IN THE DECEMBER, 2021

[01:00:01]

REPORT THE ASSUMPTION ON THE PART OF MR. HIS AND HBS THAT THERE WILL BE NO LONG-TERM CHANGES IN DEMAND DUE TO THE IMPACT OF COVID.

SO LET ME SHARE SOME OTHER WORK OF, UH, OF HVS ON CONVENTION CENTER EXPANSIONS, UH, IN RECENT YEARS, IN THIS INSTANCE, A REPORT FOR THE CITY OF MADISON, WISCONSIN ON THEIR MANANA TERRORISTS COMMUNITY AND CONVENTION CENTER, UH, FROM NOVEMBER OF 2020, AGAIN, IN THE MIDST OF THE PANDEMIC.

AND AGAIN, THIS IS, THIS IS, I SHOULD NOTE SPECIFICALLY, THIS IS MR. WORK, UH, WITH A FORECAST OF A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CONVENTION AND CONFERENCE ATTENDANCE.

UH, THE PRINCIPAL EVENT, THE PRINCIPAL EVENT TYPES, THE DRAW, UH, OUT OF TOWN, VISITOR ACTIVITY AND GENERATE HOTEL ROOM LIGHT DEMAND, AND NOTING IN THIS CASE FOR MANONA TERRACE IN PART BASED ON SURVEYS, UH, THAT THAT COULD MENTION VENUE WOULD GROW ITS BUSINESS BY ATTRACTING AND EX BY ATTRACTING EXPANDING.

THE LANGUAGE IS A BIT PECULIAR HERE, UH, ITS ABILITY TO HOLD SIMULTANEOUS EVENTS AND AGAIN, WITH A, WITH A SUBSTANTIAL, ALTHOUGH RATHER LESS THAN THE AUSTIN FORECAST INCREASE IN HOTEL ROOM NIGHT DEMAND, UH, HERE IN AN ANALYSIS FOR THE WISCONSIN CENTER DISTRICT IN MILWAUKEE OF THEIR WISCONSIN CENTER FROM DECEMBER OF 2019, UH, IMMEDIATELY PRIOR TO THE PANDEMIC, A SUMMARY OF DEMAND HISTORY, YOU WILL KNOW THAT, UH, CONVENTION ATTENDANCE FLUCTUATED QUITE SUBSTANTIALLY HERE.

UH, IT ONE, UH, ONE HIGH POINT OF, UH, 90,000 PLUS, BUT TYPICALLY WAS IN THE, IN THE 50 TO 60,000 RANGE ON AVERAGE, UH, SHOWING A BASE CONVENTION ATTENDANCE OF 53,000, UH, ALONG WITH A TRADE SHOW ATTENDANCE OF 28,000 AND A FORECAST THAT BOTH OF THOSE WOULD ALMOST DOUBLE FOLLOWING AN EXPANSION OF THE WISCONSIN CENTER VENUE IN MILWAUKEE.

IT'S JUST A CLARIFYING QUESTION.

YES.

CHAIR RECOGNIZES COMMISSIONER RONAN.

UH, CAN YOU EXPLAIN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN BASE AND STABILIZED? IS THAT JUST THE, WHEN IT AVERAGES OUT LATER IN TIME, BUT THE BASE NUMBER IS TYPICALLY AN AVERAGE OF PREVIOUS PERFORMANCE AND THE STABILIZED NUMBER IS, UH, IF I MIGHT, IT IS GENERAL THAT THE CONSULTANTS AND HVS CONSISTENTLY UNCERTAINLY IN THESE CASES, UH, FORECASTS THAT FOR A NEW OR EXPANDED CENTER, IT WILL TAKE A PERIOD OF A FEW YEARS FOR THE CENTER TO THE TERM IS RAMP UP TO A STABLE LEVEL OF ATTENDANCE.

THAT'S GENERALLY BECAUSE MEETING PLANNERS ARE RELUCTANT TO BOOK IN A NEW OR EXPANDED VENUE, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES OF CONSTRUCTION, TIMING AND COMPLETION AND INCREASED STAFFING.

AND THE LIKE, SO THE PATTERN THAT WE TEND TO SEE IS IT WILL TAKE ANYWHERE FROM THREE TO FIVE YEARS TO REACH WHAT THE CONSULTANTS ESTABLISH AS A STABILIZED LEVEL OF ATTENDANCE.

THANK YOU.

IS THAT ACCURATE? ARE YOU OKAY? UH, AND SO THE LOGIC IN THE CASE OF THE WISCONSIN CENTER, UH, IS THAT IT WOULD BE ABLE TO ATTRACT NEW NATIONAL, REGIONAL AND STATE EVENTS, UH, IN PART, BECAUSE IT WOULD THEN BE ABLE TO HOST SIMULTANEOUS EVENTS, UH, WHICH USE A VARIED COMBINATION OF EXHIBIT SPACE MEETING AND BANQUET SPACE.

UH, I NOTE IN THIS CASE, LET ME GO BACK FOR A MOMENT.

I JUST WANTED

[01:05:01]

TO SHARE TO GIVE YOU A BASELINE.

UM, THE, THE STABILIZED FORECAST FOR THE WISCONSIN CENTER WAS A TOTAL OF 96,000 CONVENTION ATTENDEES, AND ABOUT 50,000 TRADE SHOW ATTENDEES.

UH, THIS WASN'T BY NO MEANS THE FIRST OCCASION ON WHICH HVS EXAMINED, UH, AND PRODUCED A FORECAST FOR THE, FOR AN EXPANDED, UM, YOU'LL WALK EVEN YOU, IN THIS CASE WITH ITS PREVIOUS NAME, UH, WE'RE WE'RE MIDWEST EXPRESS, UM, DONE IN 2002.

AT THAT POINT, THE CENTER WAS CONSISTENTLY DOING WELL OVER A HUNDRED THOUSAND CONVENTION, A HUNDRED THOUSAND CONVENTION AND TRADE SHOW ATTENDEES.

AND IN A NUMBER OF INSTANCE, IN, IN ONE INSTANCE IN PARTICULAR IN 2000, WELL, OVER 200,000, UH, CONVENTION AND TRADE SHOW ATTENDEES.

SO WHAT'S PARTICULARLY STRIKING TO ME HERE.

AND I WANTED TO POINT OUT, UH, WAS THAT GOING BACK TO 2002, UH, HVS WAS FORECASTING, UH, AN INCREASE IN CONVENTION AND TRADE SHOW ATTENDANCE OF ALMOST TO ANY INCREASE TO, I SHOULD SAY, UH, TO ALMOST 250,000 FROM AN EXISTING LEVEL OF 166,000.

UH, WHEREAS THE CENTER HAS SEEN A PRETTY, OBVIOUSLY A PRETTY STEADY DECREASE IN ITS BUSINESS OVER THE LAST 20 ODD YEARS.

UM, AND THE LOGIC THERE IN 2002, UH, WAS AGAIN, THAT IT COULD ATTRACT LARGER NATIONAL AND REGIONAL EVENTS.

AND IN PARTICULAR WOULD HAVE THE ABILITY TO HANDLE EVENTS SIMULTANEOUSLY.

UH, THE CURRENT EXPANSION PROPOSAL FOR DALLAS IS KAY BAILEY HUTCHISON CONVENTION CENTER WAS ALSO THE FOCUS OF AN HBS STUDY BY MR. , UH, IN LATE 2017.

UH, I CONVENTION AND TRADE SHOW ATTENDANCE AT THAT POINT WAS YOU WILL KNOW QUITE VARIABLE, UH, ALTHOUGH ONLY SHOWN FOR THESE TWO YEARS BUT IN A, IN THIS CASE FOR DALLAS AS WELL, UH, A FORECAST OF A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE NUMBER OF CONVENTION AND TRADE SHOW EVENTS ANNUALLY FROM A HISTORICAL TOTAL OF 28 TO 45 AND, UH, A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN ATTENDANCE AS WELL.

UH, AND IN PARTICULAR WHITE HALF BE, UH, A BIT UNDER 50% INCREASE IN, UH, IN HOTEL ROOM NIGHT GENERATION, UH, BOTH IN THE AGGREGATE AND, AND ON THE PART OF CONVENTION AND TRADE SHOWS IN PARTICULAR.

UH, AND IN THIS CASE, THE LOGIC FOR THE KAY BAILEY HUTCHISON, UH, THEN YOU IN DALLAS WAS THE CAPACITY TO ATTRACT MORE NATIONAL CONVENTIONS AND TRADE SHOWS ALONG WITH EXISTING BUSINESS, UH, AND THE CAPACITY TO ACCOMMODATE, UH, SIMULTANEOUS USE OF THE VENUES FACILITIES.

I DID WANT TO SHARE WITH YOU A COUPLE OF INSTANCES, UH, RELATIVE TO WHAT, UH, THE COMMISSIONER HAD ASKED ABOUT BEFORE, IN TERMS OF, OF SOME OB, HOW HBS IS, UH, EXPANSION OR NEW DEVELOPMENT FORECASTS THAT ACTUALLY PLAYED OUT IN, UH, IN REALITY.

SO LET ME DO THAT, UH, IN THREE CASES, UH, STARTING WITH THE NEW RALEIGH CONVENTION CENTER, AND IT'S 2003 ANALYSIS FOR THE RALEIGH VENUE

[01:10:05]

UH, MR. HAS INSCAPE PROVIDED A FORECAST OF, UH, AS YOU SEE HERE, A NUMBER OF CONVENTION AND TRADE SHOW EVENTS, AS WELL AS OTHER EVENTS, UH, AND A FORECAST OF, UH, OF CONVENTION AND TRADE SHOW ATTENDANCE OF, UH, A BIT OVER 90,000 ANNUALLY, AS WELL AS A FORECAST OF HOTEL ROOM NIGHT GENERATION BY THE NEW RALEIGH CENTER AT A STABILIZED TOTAL, UH, BY 2011, 140,000.

AND AGAIN, PRINCIPALLY DUE TO CONVENTIONS AND TRADE SHOWS RATHER THAN THE OTHER EVENT TYPES OH, THE CITY OF RALEIGH IN ITS, UH, IN ITS COMMUNICATION WITH OVERLYING WAKE COUNTY ON THE ALLOCATION OF, UH, OF HOTEL TAX REVENUES TO VARIOUS HOSPITALITY PROJECTS HAVE PROVIDED THIS IN JANUARY OF 2019 ON THE PERFORMANCE OF THE RALEIGH CONVENTION CENTER AND IT'S ROOM NIGHT GENERATION.

I TRUST YOU WILL NOTE THAT IN THE PEAK COUPLE OF YEARS OF 2015 AND 2017, AS WELL AS IN ALL OF THE OTHER YEAR, UH, THE CENTER'S ACTUAL PERFORMANCE CAME SIGNIFICANTLY SHORT OF THE 140,000 ANNUAL ROOM NIGHTS THAT WERE FORECAST UH, MOVING AHEAD TO A MORE RECENT EXAMPLE, A LITTLE BIT CLOSER TO HOME, UH, MR. HAS IN SKI AND HVS PRODUCED AN ANALYSIS OF THE FORECAST IMPACT OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PUBLICLY FINANCED CONVENTION CENTER HEADQUARTERS HOTEL, ADJACENT TO THE HENRY B. GONZALEZ CONVENTION CENTER IN SAN ANTONIO, UH, IN THIS REPORT FROM 2005 TO THE CITY OF SAN ANTONIO, UH, THAT REPORT INCLUDED HISTORIC AGGREGATE CONVENTION AND ROOM NIGHT NUMBERS FROM THE CITY'S CONVENTION.

AND VISITOR BUREAU WE'LL HAVE REFERENCE TO THOSE AGAIN, IF YOU WOULD JUST ROUGHLY EYEBALL THOSE ROOM NIGHT NUMBERS, GET BACK TO THEM BEFORE TOO LONG.

UM, IN THE CASE OF THE CONVENTION CENTER HOTELS FOR SAN ANTONIO, AS WITH THE ANALYSIS FOR THE AUSTIN HILTON WAS HVS ALSO DID, UM, THEY ESTIMATE THE IMPACT OF THE HOTEL IN GENERATING NEW CONVENTION BUSINESS, UH, WHAT HBS TERMS INDUCED DEMAND, AND THAT IS INCREASED CONVENTION DEMAND.

YOU WILL SEE HERE, UH, IF IT COMES ON THAT ROLL LABELED MEETING AND GROUP, UH, BUT THAT IS INCREASED DEMAND IN TERMS OF NEW HOTEL ROOM NIGHTS THAT ARE PRODUCED IN THE MARKET SOLELY BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ADJACENT HOTEL.

UH, AND IN THIS CASE, A PEAK AT 160,000 NEW HOTEL ROOM NIGHTS FORECAST TO BE INDUCED IN THE MARKET FROM THAT HOTELS DEVELOPMENT.

SO THAT NUMBER WOULD, WOULD HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE ROUGHLY 700,000 ROOM NIGHTS CONVENTION ROOM NIGHTS THAT THE CITY WAS SEEING HISTORICALLY PRIOR TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NEW GRAND HYATT HOTEL.

UM, THIS SHOWS THOSE ROOM NIGHT NUMBERS BASED ON THE CITY'S REGULAR CONTINUING DISCLOSURE REPORTS TO THE BOND MARKET, UH, ANNUALLY, UH, BOTH BEFORE THE GRAND HYATT OPEN, UH, PARTIALLY IN 2008, FULLY IN 2009.

UH, AND THEN IN SUBSEQUENT YEARS, UH, YOU WILL NOTE THAT THE ONLY ONE YEAR IN WHICH THE CENTERS SAW AGGREGATE ROOM NIGHT DEMAND ON THE ORDER OF THE 700,000

[01:15:01]

PLUS 160,000, UH, WAS IN 2018.

AND THAT FIGURE CAME FOLLOWING YET ANOTHER EXPANSION OF THE CONVENTION CENTER IN LARGE PART, BECAUSE THAT INDUCED DEMAND NEVER REALLY OCCURRED AFTER THE GRAND HYATT OPEN.

THERE WAS A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE HVS FORECAST OF THE GRAND HYATT'S PERFORMANCE AND ITS ACTUAL PERFORMANCE IN TERMS OF REV PAR REVENUE PER AVAILABLE ROOM.

AND I, I, I WOULD SUSPECT ALL OF YOU ARE FAMILIAR WITH REV PAR, UH, AND WHAT IT IS, BUT IF YOU'RE NOT JUST PARANTHETICALLY, IT IS THE PRODUCT OF THE OCCUPANCY PERCENTAGE TIMES THE AVERAGE DAILY RATE FOR THE HOTEL PROPERTY.

SO AGAIN, YOU WILL NOTE, UH, THAT THE GRAND HYATT'S ACTUAL PERFORMANCE IN TERMS OF REVENUE AND OCCUPANCY, UH, FELL SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW THE HBS FORECAST.

UM, I'M SURE HBS WOULD ARGUE THAT IN LARGE PART WAS THE PRODUCT OF THE 2008 RECESSION, AND THAT CLEARLY HAD A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON HOTEL PERFORMANCE, ALTHOUGH IT IS NOTABLE, UH, THAT AGGREGATE HOTEL DEMAND AS MEASURED BY THE HOTEL DATA FOLKS AT STR ACTUALLY RECOVERED QUITE QUICKLY AFTER 2008.

UM, THE, THE IMPACT ON THE SAN ANTONIO MARKET SUGGESTED THAT IN FACT, THAT THE HYATT REPRESENTED A, AN OVERBUILDING, UH, AND THAT, THAT THINGS, THINGS SPUTTERED IN MANY WAYS, EVEN, UH, EVEN AS AGGREGATE HOTEL DEMAND NATIONALLY, UH, RECOVERED POST 2008, I, AND FINALLY, UH, A MORE RECENT EXAMPLE, UH, ONE WHICH WAS USED BY THE, THE UT CENTER FOR SUSTAINABLE ARCHITECTURE.

AND I KNOW HAS BEEN REFERENCED IN THE AUSTIN CASE.

UH, AND THAT'S THE CASE OF NASHVILLE'S, UH, ENTIRELY NEW VENUE, THE MUSIC CITY CENTER, UH, IN SEPTEMBER OF 2010 H P HBS PRODUCED A FINAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST FOR METRO NASHVILLE UPDATING THEIR PREVIOUS WORK.

BASED ON THE FACT THAT, UH, THE FINANCING FOR A NEW CONVENTION CENTER HEADQUARTERS HOTEL ADJACENT TO THE MUSIC CITY VENUE, UH, HAD BEEN ARRANGED, UH, THAT IS A SUBSTANTIALLY SUBSIDIZE OMNI BRANDED VENUE, UH, THAT WAS ESTIMATED TO HAVE 750 ROOMS, AS I RECALL, IT ACTUALLY OPENED AND NOW HAS 800 ROOMS UH, AND HBS AT THAT POINT, UH, PRIOR TO THE OPENING OF THE MUSIC CITY CENTER, UH, FORECAST AND ANNUAL ROOM NIGHT PRODUCTION OF, UH, ROUGHLY 504,000 ROOM NIGHTS AT THE FOLLOWING RAMP UP AT THE STABILIZER ASSUMED TO BE 26, 20 16, 17.

SO I JUST WANTED TO SHARE THE LAST FULLY PRE PANDEMIC, UH, FISCAL YEAR ANNUAL REPORT FROM THE MUSIC CITY CENTER, UH, WHERE THEIR FISCAL 2019 ROOM NIGHT COUNT UH, AND A SUMMARY OF THOSE, UH, THOSE ROOM NIGHT NUMBERS, UH, AND ADDING THE OBSERVATION THAT IN NO CASE, DID THOSE GET PARTICULARLY CLOSE TO A 500,000 ANNUAL ROOM NIGHT, NUMBER THREE, PANDEMIC.

UH, SO WITH THAT, THE PRESENTATION STUFF IS DONE.

IF YOU'D LIKE ME TO ADDRESS THE QUESTIONS THAT COMMISSIONER BUNCH ASKED EARLIER, I CAN DO THAT MORE DIRECTLY,

[01:20:01]

BUT I THINK THIS GIVES YOU SOME SENSE OF THE, THE ANSWERS COMMISSION, A BUNCH.

DID YOU WANT ANY OTHER SPECIFIC ANSWERS? CAUSE I KNOW WE HAVE SOME OTHER QUESTIONS IN LINE, IF, IF YOU THINK IT'S USEFUL, BUT MY SENSE IS THAT YOU'VE SHOWED US A NUMBER OF THESE HVS, BUT I'M GUESSING YOU'VE LOOKED AT A WHOLE BUNCH MORE THAN THE ONES YOU SHOWED US TYPICALLY.

AYE, AYE, AYE, AYE.

COMMISSIONER.

I DON'T WANT TO VENTURE A NUMBER WITH ANY ENORMOUS ACCURACY, BUT I WOULD SAY LOOKING AT MULTIPLE ITERATIONS AND, AND CONVENTION CENTER, HOTEL STUDIES, AS WELL AS, UH, STUDIES BASED ON SOLELY FOCUSED ON CONVENTION CENTERS, SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 40 AND 50.

AND, AND FROM YOUR RECOLLECTION OF THOSE 40 OR 50, DID HVS EVER PROJECT THE ROOM NIGHTS WOULDN'T GO UP A LOT AND THEN WHERE THE PROJECTIONS EVER ACTUALLY MET? UM, I DON'T RECALL A CASE OF, UH, OF THEY'RE NOT PROJECTING AN INCREASE.

UM, EXACTLY WHAT IT'S ABOUT CAN VARY.

UM, AS IN THE CASE OF YOUR 2020 REPORT, SOME REPORTS INCLUDE HOTEL ROOM NIGHT FIGURES, SOME ARE LIMITED TO ATTENDANCE.

UM, I HAVE, I HAVE FOUND AS MANY OF THE CONSULTANT REPORTS AS I CAN, UH, THAT ARE PUBLICLY AVAILABLE.

I'VE, I'VE LOOKED AT THEM IN PAPER AND AS WE GET MORE THINGS AVAILABLE IN A PDF FORM, I COLLECT LOTS OF THOSE.

UH, I CAN'T RECALL A CASE WHERE, UH, WHERE H IN TH THIS MR. HAS ZINSKI'S HVS PRACTICE, UH, HAS NOT INDICATED THERE WOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE.

UM, BUT THERE MAY WELL BE, I MEAN, I, I, I CAN'T SAY THAT, THAT, THAT HE HAS NOT PRODUCED SUCH A REPORT IN THE TIME HE HAS BEEN IN BUSINESS SINCE TWO, ON HIS OWN, SINCE 2001, BUT I