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[00:00:01]

SORRY.

[*This meeting was joined in progress.*]

YEAH.

OKAY.

UM, I WAS LOOKING AT ALL THIS ON MY COMPUTER AND I'M DISORIENTED BY THE PAPER.

OKAY.

SO, UM, DO WE HAVE ANY, UM, PUBLIC COMMUNICATIONS, ANYONE SIGN UP ONLINE? NO.

OKAY.

UM, AND ALSO JUST WELCOME EVERYBODY.

WE HAVE MORE PEOPLE IN THE ROOM THAN USUAL, WHICH IS NICE.

I THINK PEOPLE ARE HERE TO DO SOME PRESENTATIONS AND THEN WELCOME TO ALL THE FOLKS ONLINE AS WELL.

UM, AND IF YOU HAVE COMMENTS OR STUFF, YOU KNOW, RAISE YOUR HAND.

ARE WE ON ONE OF THOSE THINGS WE CAN RAISE YOUR HAND ON THE WEBEX? NO, NO.

WAVE YOUR ARMS. JUST START TALKING, I GUESS.

HOWEVER IT WORKS.

YEAH.

UNMUTE OKAY.

VERY

[APPROVAL OF MINUTES]

GOOD.

OKAY.

AND SO OUR FIRST ITEM IS APPROVAL OF MINUTES FROM OUR JULY 12TH TASK FORCE MEETING.

I MOVE APPROVAL.

THEY WERE IN ONE OF THE ATTACHMENTS IN YOUR EMAIL FROM JANEL.

THAT WAS FROM YESTERDAY, RIGHT? MM-HMM OKAY.

DO I HAVE A SECOND BILL MOI.

THANK YOU.

ANY DISCUSSION? ALL IN FAVOR.

AYE.

ALL RIGHT, VANESSA, DID YOU RAISE YOUR HAND? YES.

OKAY.

UNANIMOUS.

OH, WAIT.

ANY OPPOSED? ALL RIGHT.

VERY GOOD.

ONE DOWN.

OKAY.

SO

[1. Update on water supply conditions, presented by Austin Water staff]

NEXT WE'RE GOING TO HAVE AN UPDATE WATER SUPPLY UPDATE.

I FEAR THAT THE RAIN THAT WE HAD DID NOT SOLVE ALL OF OUR PROBLEMS. IN FACT, I SAW THE DROP MAP THE OTHER DAY AND IT'S MADE LIKE A WEIRD RED DONUT AROUND TRAVIS COUNTY, BUT, UM, ANYWAY, TRAVIS COUNTY.

BUT IS THAT GONNA BE YOU MARISA DOING THAT? YES.

OKAY.

THANK YOU.

YOU CAN MOVE TO THE NEXT SLIDE.

SO WE HAVE A BRIEF WATER SUPPLY UPDATE HERE.

UM, THIS INFORMATION ON THE HIGHLAND LAKES INFLOWS IS THROUGH THE END OF AUGUST.

AT THE END OF SEPTEMBER, IS WHEN WE WOULD HAVE THE INFLOWS FOR, UM, THE FULL MONTH OF SEPTEMBER.

YOU CAN SEE THAT IN AUGUST, WE REGISTERED ALMOST 5,000 ACRE FEET OF INFLOWS, UM, STILL VERY LOW, UH, BUT, UH, A HIGHER AMOUNT THAN WE RECEIVED IN, IN JULY.

UM, YOU CAN MOVE TO THE NEXT SIDE.

THIS IS A PICTURE OF CURRENT WATER SUPPLIES.

UH, THIS COMBINED STORAGE CHART IS ALSO, UM, THROUGH THE END OF AUGUST AND, UH, THROUGH SEPTEMBER 1ST, WE'LL HAVE MORE INFORMATION AS THE MONTHS GO BY, UM, CURRENT WATER SUPPLIES AS OF SEPTEMBER 16TH, WE'RE AT 1.1 MILLION ACRE FEET OF COMBINED STORAGE.

UM, YOU CAN GO TO THE NEXT SIGN.

THIS IS THE TEXAS WATER DEVELOPMENT BOARD'S, UM, WEEKLY WATER REPORT SHOWING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE STATE.

UM, SINCE AUGUST DROUGHT HAS DECLINED IN, UH, A GOOD PORTION OF THE STATE, UM, BUT WE ARE STILL EXPERIENCING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.

UM, AND THAT INCLUDES HERE IN TRAVIS COUNTY.

UM, AS JENNIFER MENTIONED, WE DID HAVE A LITTLE BIT OF RAIN, UM, HERE IN SEPTEMBER.

HOWEVER, THAT AMOUNT OF RAIN WAS OF COURSE NOT ENOUGH TO, UM, COMPLETELY GET RID OF THE DROUGHT OR, UM, DID NOT LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT INCREASES IN COMBINED STORAGE.

YOU CAN MOVE TO THE NEXT SLIDE.

UH, THIS IS THE THREE MONTH OUTLOOK FROM THE, UM, FROM NOAH, UH, LOOKING AT THE SEASONAL TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK, AS WELL AS SEASONAL PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK.

UM, YOU CAN SEE THAT HERE THROUGH OCTOBER, NOVEMBER AND DECEMBER, WE HAVE ABOVE AVERAGE CHANCES OF HAVING HIGHER, UM, UH, UH, HIGHER TEMPERATURES.

AND WE HAVE ABOUT BELOW AVERAGE CHANCES OF, UM, GETTING TO AVERAGE, UM, PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE MONTHS OF, OF DECEMBER.

AND THE NEXT SLIDE.

UM, WE'RE SHOWING HERE THE UPDATED L CRA LAKE LEVELS FORECAST IS A FORECAST FOR COMBINED STORAGE AND LAKES, TRAVIS AND BUCHANAN, UM, PER THIS FORECAST.

UH, WE ARE POTENTIALLY LOOKING AT STILL STAYING ABOVE 900,000 ACRE FEET THROUGH MARCH OF 2023.

UM, WE, IT LOOKS LIKE WE'LL STAY ABOVE THAT 900,000 ACRE FOOT LEVEL.

UM, HOPEFULLY THROUGH THE,

[00:05:01]

UH, THROUGH THE END OF THE CALENDAR YEAR, THE REASON THAT THAT 900,000 ACRE FOOT TRIGGER IS IMPORTANT IS BECAUSE THAT IS ONE OF OUR TRIGGERS FOR STAGE TWO DROUGHT RESTRICTIONS FOR THE CITY OF AUSTIN.

OF COURSE, UM, A LOT OF THIS DATA WALLET IS, UH, SARCASTICALLY GENERATED.

IT IS PULLING FROM, UH, HISTORICAL HYDROLOGY, SO THINGS COULD BE DIFFERENT.

AND SO WE CONTINUALLY TRACK, UM, INFLOWS AND COMBINE STORAGE, UM, ON A WEEKLY BASIS INTERNALLY.

SO WE'LL BE CONTINUING TO TRACK THAT INFORMATION AS WELL AS OTHER FORECAST INFORMATION, UH, TO INFORM OUR DROP RESPONSE ACTIVITIES, UM, FROM A CONSERVATION AS WELL AS A SUPPLY PLANNING PERSPECTIVE.

AND YOU MOVE TO THE NEXT SLIDE.

HAPPY TO ANSWER ANY QUESTIONS THAT FOLKS MAY HAVE I QUESTION.

YES, SIR.

UM, I KNOW YOU HAVE A POLICY AND A SCHEDULE FOR DOING THESE DROUGHT RESPONSE THINGS.

WHAT WOULD BE WRONG WITH SKIPPING TO THE END NOW AND SAVING A BUNCH OF WATER RATHER THAN WAIT FOR EACH LITTLE LEVEL ON THE LAKES TO GO THROUGH MM-HMM UM, I MEAN, I CAN GO AHEAD AND TAKE A, A STAB AT THAT, BUT WE DO HAVE OUR CONSERVATION DIVISION MANAGER AS WELL AS OUR ASSISTANT DIRECTOR HERE.

SO WHO WOULD ANYBODY ELSE PREFER TO GO FIRST? ALL RIGHT.

UM, YEAH, SO WE CERTAINLY HAVE THAT, THAT DROUGHT CONTINUENCY PLAN, AS YOU MENTIONED, THAT HAS THESE DIFFERENT STAGES.

AND PRIMARILY IT IS JUST MORE OF A TIGHTENING.

WE DON'T HAVE ANY LARGE JUMPS IN THESE STAGES, JUST A TIGHTENING OF THE RESTRICTIONS THAT WE HAVE.

UM, SO, AND THAT INVOLVES MORE, UH, INVOLVE MORE STAFF, TIME, MORE PUBLIC OUTREACH, AND SO FORTH.

SO THEORETICALLY WE COULD, YOU KNOW, CRUNCH IT ALL DOWN TO STAGE THREE OR STAGE FOUR.

UM, BUT I THINK THE RESERVOIRS ARE STILL 50% FULL.

AND I, I GUESS PERSONALLY, I'D BE A LITTLE HESITANT AT, AT CRYING WOLF WHILE WE STILL HAVE, UH, A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF WATER LEFT TO START REALLY RATCHETING DOWN, HAVING SOMETHING.

I, MY REASON FOR LET'S SAY ABANDONING YOUR SCHEDULE OF IS BECAUSE WHEN YOU LOOK AT THESE INFLOW NUMBERS, THEY'RE FREAKISHLY LOW MM-HMM .

AND IT'S ALMOST LIKE WHEN I LOOK AT THAT, IT TELLS ME, UH, YOU KNOW, WE, WE HAVE A REALLY DIFFICULT SITUATION COMING.

DOES ANYBODY KNOW IF YOU WENT TO THE MOST EXTREME CONSERVATION LEVEL? HOW MUCH MORE WATER DOES THAT SAVE KEVIN CRI AND AUSTIN WATER? LET ME JUST ADD, I GUESS I'LL JUST ADD A FEW THINGS.

I MEAN, I THINK, I THINK ONE OF OUR CONCERNS IS THAT WE WANNA MAKE SURE THAT AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THIS DROUGHT, THAT WE DON'T CAUSE ON ANY UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES.

AND SO AS WE STEP THROUGH THIS PROCESS, THERE IS INCREASINGLY MORE RESTRICTION, MORE PAIN ON CERTAIN USER CLASSES.

AND SO WE WANTED TO BE CAREFUL, AGAIN, NOT TO CRY WOLF THAT WE WALKED THROUGH THIS PROCESS.

WE'VE BEEN, UM, DUTIFULLY PREPARED THIS PROCESS AND CONSULTATION, UM, AND UNDERSTANDING OF THE HYDRAULICS AND HYDROLOGY OF OUR SITUATION.

UM, I WOULD SAY THAT, UM, I MEAN, I THINK IT'S SPECIFIC ANSWER TO YOUR QUESTION.

I THINK EACH OF THESE SUBSEQUENT STAGES PROBABLY LOOKS TO SAVE SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 2010 AND 25% AS WE STEP DOWN.

UM, BUT WITH THAT SAID, UM, I MEAN, I THINK MOVING TO THE END WATER MORE THAN I WOULD'VE GUESSED IT IS FROM A RESIDENTIAL PERSPECTIVE THAT, I MEAN, CORRECT ME IF I MISSPOKE.

I MEAN, I THINK OVERALL IT STARTS OUT AT FIVE AND THEN 10 AND THEN 20.

SO, SO 20% THAT, THAT IS A LOT OF WATER AND THAT'S A LOT OF WORK TO DO.

IF I RECALL CORRECTLY, THERE'S A, A TABLE, THERE SHOULD BE A TABLE.

EACH OF THAT ARE OUT CONTINGENCY PLANS THAT HAS A PERCENTAGE OF AMOUNT OF WATER SAVED FOR EACH OF THEM.

MAYBE WE COULD SHARE THAT OUT WITH FOLKS.

AND MY, AND MY UNDERSTANDING IS TOO, IS THAT, UM, I CAN'T REMEMBER THE EXACT SCHEDULE, BUT THE DROUGHT CONTINGENCY PLAN AND THE WATER CONSERVATION PLAN GET UPDATED EVERY FIVE YEARS WITH THE STATE MM-HMM .

UM, AND ARE THEY DUE MAY 20, 24, 23, 20 24.

SO NEXT YEAR, 2023.

YEAH.

WE WILL BE IN THE MIDST OF YEAH.

OF LOOKING AT IT AGAIN, LOOKING AT THE NUMBERS ACTIVITIES AGAIN, TO SEE HOW WE WANT TO CHANGE THAT.

SO BOTH OF THOSE PLANS VERY IMPORTANT.

[00:10:01]

UM, I'M A BIG PROPONENT OF JUST IN GENERAL, LOOKING AT SOME ADDITIONAL DROUGHT TRIGGERS RATHER THAN JUST TREATMENT CAPACITY AND STORAGE CAPACITY AND HAVING A MORE HOLISTIC LOOK AT DROP CONDITIONS.

I HAVEN'T CONVINCED ANYONE TO DO IT YET, BUT, UM, YOU KNOW, THERE'S ALWAYS TIME, BUT, UM, ANYWAY, I'VE BEEN LOOKING AROUND AT DIFFERENT COMMUNITIES AND HOW THEY'RE DOING IT.

I HAVE FOUND A COUPLE THAT ARE LOOKING AT LIKE A WHOLE HOST OF DROUGHT, DROUGHT, UM, INDICATORS TO, TO INFORM THEIR DECISION MAKING AND HAVE A LITTLE BIT MORE, UM, REFINED LOOK AT THAT, OR JUST, YOU KNOW, OR MAYBE, YOU KNOW, A LITTLE BIT OF SAY, IF YOU WANTED TO JUMP AHEAD DROUGHT STAGES, AND I'M JUST THINKING, YOU KNOW, BIG PICTURE HERE, THIS ISN'T PERTAINING TO THIS NECESSARILY, BUT SAY, IF YOU WANTED TO HAVE LIKE, SKIP AHEAD A DROUGHT TRIGGER THAT YOU WOULD HAVE THIS KIND OF, UM, INFORMATION THAT YOU'VE BEEN TRACKING TO BACK IT UP MUCH LIKE WE HAVE HERE, BUT ANYWAY, JUST THINKING OUT LOUD WHEN GO AHEAD.

WELL, I MEAN, I, SO I WOULD JUST ALSO ADD, I MEAN, SOME OF THIS IS ALSO JUST TRYING TO EMPLOY THE SCIENTIFIC METHOD, RIGHT? I MEAN, WE'RE GONNA ACT, WE'RE GONNA SEE WHAT THE RESPONSE IS.

WE'RE GONNA CONTINUE TO TRACK.

UM, YOU KNOW, I, I WOULD ALSO SAY THAT THAT, UM, YOU KNOW, WHILE WE AGREE, I MEAN, OBVIOUSLY THE INFLOW NUMBERS ARE, ARE LOW AND TO USE YOUR WORDS, FREAK, FREAKISHLY LOW, UM, THE CONDITION OF THE HIGHLAND LAKES ARE RELATIVELY GOOD.

AND SO CERTAINLY GOOD IN COMPARISON TO WHERE WE WERE DURING THE LAST DROUGHT.

SO I THINK THAT'S A GOOD SIGN, CERTAINLY OTHER ELEMENTS THAT AREN'T SPECIFICALLY REFLECTED IE, YOU KNOW, L C'S WATER MANAGEMENT PLAN HAS BEEN CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE LAST TIME THAT WE WERE IN A DROUGHT.

UM, AND I THINK YOU SEE THAT SORT OF IN THE REFLECTION OF THE PROJECTION OF, YOU KNOW, THE NEXT, YOU KNOW, SIX MONTHS OR SO IN HIGHLAND LAKE LEVEL.

SO, YOU KNOW, THAT, THAT STALL IS JUST TO SAY THAT, YOU KNOW, WE'RE GONNA CONTINUE TO BE VERY ATTENTIVE TO THIS AND CONTINUE TO WATCH.

THERE ARE A NUMBER OF FACTORS.

IT'S NOT JUST ABOUT INFLOWS, IT'S ABOUT INFLOWS AND STORAGE AND DEMAND.

SO IT'S KIND OF ALL OF THOSE FACTORS.

UM, SO, YOU KNOW, AND IT'S QUITE POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD, UM, EVOLVE OUR THINKING AROUND IMPLEMENTATION OF WATER CON EXCUSE ME, DROUGHT CONTINGENCY PLANNING TO HAVE OTHER FACTORS AS WE LOOK AT THE FU FUTURE UPDATES.

SO, ONE THING I WANTED TO MENTION IS JUST SOME CLARIFICATION HONOR, DROUGHT CONTINGENCY PLAN STAGES.

UM, SO LIKE KEVIN WAS MENTIONING STAGES ONE THROUGH THREE, ESSENTIALLY WHAT THEY DO IS THEY SHORTEN THE WINDOWS OF TIME DURING WHICH YOU CAN WATER.

UM, SO IT GOES DOWN FROM A, A WATERING WINDOW OF 10 TO 15 HOURS PER WEEK DOWN TO SIX HOURS, UM, FROM STAGE TWO TO STAGE THREE, AND THEN IN STAGE FOUR, OUTDOOR IRRIGATION IS PROHIBITED.

SO IF WE WERE JUST TO JUMP STRAIGHT TO, YOU KNOW, THE MOST EXTREME DROUGHT CONTINGENCY PLAN STAGE AND SAY STAGE FOUR, OUTDOOR IRRIGATION IS PROHIBITED.

UH, I THINK THAT IN ITSELF COULD HAVE SOME UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES, UM, IN TERMS OF, UM, PRESERVING A TREE CANOPY, UM, FOR, UH, YOU KNOW, FOR ESTABLISHMENT OF, OF, UM, PLANTS AND, UH, THAT COULD BE NATIVE AND ADAPTIVE PLANTS.

I THINK THAT COULD HAVE SOME UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES IN IT IN ITSELF.

UM, SO JUST WE CAN SEND OUT THE TABLE THAT WAS MENTIONED, PROVIDING A LITTLE BIT MORE INFORMATION ABOUT WHAT'S CONTAINED WITHIN EACH OF THOSE DROUGHT CONTINGENCY PLAN STAGES.

THE OTHER THING I WAS GONNA MENTION IS THAT WE ARE, AS WE'RE IMPLEMENTING AMI, AND WE'RE WHAT OVER 65,000 OUTTA 250,000 METERS REPLACED, UM, WE'RE ABLE TO PROVIDE OUR CUSTOMERS WITH NOTIFICATIONS ABOUT THAT ARE TRYING TO COMPEL THEM TO HAVE MORE WATER, EFFICIENT BEHAVIOR.

UM, SO I'LL JUST GIVE MYSELF AS AN EXAMPLE, MY HUSBAND IS INTERESTED IN TRYING TO GET THE YARD AND A LITTLE, THE BACKYARD FRONT YARDS ROCKS BACKYARD IN A LITTLE BIT BETTER SHAPE BEFORE MY SON'S BIRTHDAY PARTY.

I GOT A NOTIFICATION THAT WE WERE, UM, WE HAD AN UNUSUAL WATER USE AS HE WAS DRAGGING THE HOSE AROUND IN THE BACKYARD.

SO YES, BUSTED.

UM, SO I MEAN, JUST, BUT IT SHOWED ME LIKE WHAT MY HISTORIC PATTERN OF WATER USE HAD BEEN.

AND THEN IT SHOWED ALL OF A SUDDEN, YOU USED 600 GALLONS OF WATER HERE, AND YOU HAD SOME SORT OF UNUSUAL PATTERN YOU NEED TO ADDRESS THAT.

UM, AND ONCE I WAS ABLE TO SEE THE GRAPH, I WAS LIKE, WOW, WE REALLY DID USE A LOT OF WATER IF THAT'S THE REACTION FOR ME, JUST, YOU KNOW, I, I THINK THAT A LOT OF FOLKS COULD POTENTIALLY USE THAT TYPE OF INFORMATION.

SO THAT'S HELPING TO ADDRESS NOT ONLY OUTDOOR IRRIGATION, UM, BUT THAT'S, UH, HELPING TO ADDRESS LEAKS, UM, AND OTHER ISSUES, OTHER, UM, ANOMALOUS, UH, USAGE ISSUES.

SO I THINK WE'LL CONTINUE TO SEEK SOME GOOD, UM, FEEDBACK IN TERMS OF BEHAVIOR AND CONSERVATION FROM IMPLEMENTATION OF, OF THAT STRATEGY AS WELL.

WHO FIGURES THAT, WHO FIGURES THAT OUT? YEAH.

THEY KNOW

[00:15:01]

YOU'VE GOT A BIRTHDAY COMING.

I PUT IT MY SON'S BIRTHDAY.

IS IT? MM-HMM YEP.

YEAH.

VERY GOOD.

YEAH.

SO GO AHEAD.

YEAH, WE CAN'T WAIT TO GET OUR METERS IN THOSE OF US THAT DON'T HAVE THEM, SO WE CAN ALSO GET OUR FAMILY MEMBERS IN TROUBLE FOR USING TOO MUCH WATER.

I LOOK FORWARD TO THAT.

UM, ANY OTHER QUESTIONS? YEAH.

UM, I'M KIND OF LOOKING, MAYBE LOOKING ON THE, LIKE, YOU'RE LOOK, BILL, YOU'RE LOOKING AT THE DEMAND SIDE, I'M KIND OF LOOKING AT THE SUPPLY SIDE.

AND SO, UM, YOU KNOW, THESE, THESE PROJECTIONS ARE USEFUL, BUT LIKE WHERE WE REALLY SEE THE LEVELS GO DOWN IN THE LAKE IS DURING THE IRRIGATION SEASON.

AND IF WE HAVE, UH, YOU KNOW, WE'RE EXPECTING, AS WE SAW THE SEASONAL OUTLOOK DRYER, THE NORMAL WARMER, NORMAL CONDITIONS, WE'RE LOOKING AT A THIRD YEAR LINEEN.

AND IF WE KIND OF ASSUME WHAT WE'VE SEEN OVER THE LAST SIX, SIX TO NINE MONTHS OCCURS OVER THE FUTURE SIX TO NINE MONTHS, WE'RE, WE'RE DOWN AT, UH, 800,000 OF STORAGE NEXT YEAR, OF COURSE, WHO KNOWS WHAT THE, WHAT THE FUTURE HOLDS, BUT, UM, YOU KNOW, WE COULD DEFINITELY FIND OURSELVES BELOW A MILLION ACRE FEET THIS TIME NEXT YEAR.

I DON'T KNOW IF, UH, L CRA OR AUSTIN LOOKS BEYOND THIS, YOU KNOW, THROUGH MARCH, I DON'T KNOW WHAT THIS IS A SIX MONTH OUTLOOK.

UM, ALSO I GUESS THE QUESTION I HAVE IS THE, YOU KNOW, REALIZE THAT THE L CRA'S MANAGEMENT PLAN HAS CHANGED.

AND, AND AS, AS YOU MENTIONED, THAT LOOKS VERY DIFFERENT THIS SUMMER AS COMPARED TO SIMILAR CONDITIONS LEADING INTO 2012, OR WE FELL BELOW 800,000.

UM, HOW, I MEAN IS WHEN DOES THE, UM, WATER RELEASED FOR DOWNSTREAM IRRIGATION SUSPENDED? IS IT THEY'VE ALREADY STOPPED, STOPPED SECOND CROP THIS SUMMER.

OKAY.

YEAH.

AND THERE'S ADDITIONAL TRIGGERS IN THE PLANT.

SO I, I WOULD JUST HAVE THERESA TO KIND OF TALK US THROUGH THAT.

I, I THINK IT IS VERY IMPORTANT POINT AND CERTAINLY IN THE GRAPHIC THAT SHOWS THE DIFFERENT SORT OF PROBABILITIES THERESA, WE KIND OF TALKED THROUGH THAT BECAUSE IT IT'S IMPORTANT AND IT DOES A BIG USER OF WATER, YOU KNOW, IS TO, TO FACILITATE IRRIGATION DEMANDS DOWNSTREAM.

SO THERE, YEAH.

AND, UM, WITH THE CURRENT WATER MANAGEMENT PLAN, L CRA'S WATER MANAGEMENT PLAN, THE, UH, ADDITIONAL RELEASES FOR DOWNSTREAM IRRIGATION, THERE'S A DECISION DATE ON MARCH 1ST.

SO MARCH 1ST, 2023 WILL BE THE NEXT DIS DECISION DATE AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED, THE CURRENT SECOND CROP RELEASES FOR THAT WOULD BE GOING ON NOW, EXCEPT FOR THE WATER MANAGEMENT PLAN, UH, CURTAILED THOSE, UM, THOSE AREN'T HAPPENING NOW.

AND UNLESS COMBINED STORAGE GETS BACK UP TO 1.3 MILLION ACRE FEET IN BY MARCH 1ST THAT THE FIRST CROP RELEASE WOULD BE CURTAILED NEXT YEAR.

SO THERE WOULDN'T BE A FIRST, UH, FIRST CROP RELEASE FOR THE NON GARWOOD DISTRICTS, UM, NEXT YEAR, UNLESS THE STORAGE GETS ABOVE 1.3 AND THEN THERE WOULD BE A DECISION.

UM, I'M NOT SURE HOW MUCH THEN CUZ THERE ARE DIFFERENT STAGES AND AMOUNTS THAT ARE DETERMINED.

HAVEN'T LOOKED AT THAT IF IT GETS ABOVE 1.3, IT WOULD HAVE TO GET TO A CERTAIN LEVEL TO, UM, YOU KNOW, THAT, UM, PRESCRIBES HOW MUCH WOULD BE AVAILABLE FOR FIRST CROP.

BUT IT, YOU KNOW, BASED ON THE, UM, THE PROJ THE CURRENT PROJECTIONS, IT LOOKS LIKE EVEN WITH MORE NORMAL 50, 50 CHANCE THAT IT WILL PROBABLY STAY BELOW 1.3.

SO IT'S ANTICIPATED THAT, YOU KNOW, THE 50, 50 CHANCE AT LEAST, UH, IS THAT THERE WOULDN'T BE, UM, IRRIGATION RELEASES FOR NEXT YEAR.

AND IF THEY CURTAIL FIRST CROP, THEY ALSO DO NOT DO SECOND CROP.

SO IT'S LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE A FULL YEAR OF, UH, CURTAILMENT NEXT YEAR.

OKAY.

SO THAT'S, THAT'S THEN VERY DIFFERENT, GOOD FOR US.

VERY DIFFERENT, NOT GOOD FOR THE RICE FARMERS, BUT GOOD FOR US.

THEY'RE VERY DIFFERENT RESPONSE TO CORRECT THAN WHAT WE SAW IS THE, UH, JUST THE PROCESS QUESTION ON L CRA'S PROJECTIONS.

IF YOU KNOW THE ANSWER, MY SIMPLE UNDERSTANDING IS THEY'VE KIND OF TAKEN HISTORY AT DIFFERENT POINTS IN TIME AND THEN LOOK AT THE, THE PROBABILITY AND THEN MAKE THOSE PROJECTIONS.

OF COURSE NOW WITH THE MANAGEMENT PLAN BEING DIFFERENT, THOSE PROJECTIONS WOULD LOOK DIFFERENT.

SO, SO DID THEY FACTOR IN THE PROJECTIONS OR IS SIMPLE UNDERSTANDING INCORRECT, WHICH IS PROBABLY WELL, THEY, THEY FACTOR HIM IN, UH, RICHARD, DO YOU WANNA SPEAK TO THAT QUESTION ON THE LCRA SIX MONTH PROJECTION? YEAH.

UH, RICHARD HOFF POWER, UH, AS FAR AS I KNOW THOSE

[00:20:01]

PLOTS THEY'RE BASED ON 2000 SIMULATIONS AND THEY USE, UH, THE HISTORICAL H HYDROLOGIC RECORD AND MIX IT UP, UH, TO GENERATE 2000 NEW SEQUENCES AND THEN THE LINES ARE PLOTTED THOSE, UH, 95TH, 99TH 50TH PERCENTILE LINES ARE BASED ON THE OUTCOMES OF THOSE SIMULATIONS.

SO WHEN YOU'RE LOOKING AT THAT CHART, IT'S, IT'S NOT ONE SIMULATION TRACING OUT THE 50TH DRAWING.

OKAY.

YEAH.

COOL.

THAT'S THAT'S GOOD.

AND THEN OBVIOUSLY THE, THE, THE LATEST MANAGEMENT PLANS BAKED INTO THOSE ANALYSIS.

RIGHT.

OKAY.

YEAH.

SO THANK YOU.

YEAH.

THEY'RE NOT INCORPORATING RELEASES, SO IT STAYS FLAT PRETTY FAR.

PERFECT.

APPRECIATE THAT.

MM-HMM YEAH.

AND, UM, BEFORE YOU HAVE YOUR QUESTION, I WANNA BE MINDFUL OF THE TIME WE'VE GOT SOME REALLY BIG AGENDA ITEMS TODAY.

UM, AND RICHARD TRAVELED IN HE'S LAST ON THE AGENDA, BUT TRAVELED IN FOR, UM, ANYWAY, JUST NOW I'LL ASK YOUR QUESTION.

UM, SO CAN YOU MICROPHONE, UM, WHEN I LAY A STRAIGHT EDGE ON THE BLUE LINE ON THE CHART THAT WE'RE ALL LOOKING AT WITH THE PROJECTED, ISN'T IT KIND OF FUNNY THAT WE HAVE A SLOPE KIND OF SEVERE UP UNTIL TODAY AND THEN WHEN WE PROJECT FORWARD, IT KIND OF FLATTENS AND IT MAY BE THAT MAKES COMPLETE SENSE TO EVERYBODY BECAUSE MAYBE IN LEASING WATER FOR THE RICE FARMERS, IS THAT WHAT'S GOING ON? SO NOW THAT WE'VE GOT THOSE PEOPLE LOCKED OUT, THAT'S WHY THE RED LINE IS FLAT.

I THINK SO.

I'M NOT EXACTLY SURE WHAT YOU'RE LOOKING AT SPECIFICALLY.

UM, CAN LET'S SEE IT.

YEAH.

THANK YOU.

THERE.

CAN YOU TALK OH, SURE.

THANK YOU.

YES, IT, UH, SO THE, THE BLUE LINE WAS DROPPING PRETTY SHARPLY AND THAT WAS REFLECTIVE OF, UM, IT BEING DRY AND RELEASES HAPPENING FOR THE, THE RICE IRRIGATION AND LARGELY, AND YOU KNOW, OTHER OTHER, UH, USES DURING THE SUMMER WERE HIGHER AS WELL.

BUT YEAH, IT'S, IT'S FLATTENED OUT AND THEY, THEY STOPPED FOR SECOND CROP.

THE DECISION POINT IS, UH, JULY 1ST, BUT THEN THEY HAVE A LITTLE BIT OF A, THERE'S A LITTLE BIT OF A KIND OF OVERLAP IN A CURTAILMENT THAT, THAT WERE, UH, THE AMOUNTS RELEASED OR SLOWED DOWN AND BY ABOUT MID-AUGUST THOSE HAVE TAPERED OFF.

DOES THAT SEEM FUN? DOES THIS SEEM FUNNY TO YOU AT ALL? AND IT MAY NOT.

I'M JUST CURIOUS IF THIS LOOKS FUNNY TO YOU.

I THINK IT LOOKS LIKE IT, IT, I WOULD'VE ANTICIPATE THAT IT WOULD LOOK LIKE WHEN THE, THE RICE IN YOUR OPINION.

WELL, I THINK IT IT'S REFLECTIVE OF THE WATER MANAGEMENT PLAN AND, AND ROBERT MACE, YOU, YOU THINK THIS IS OKAY? YEAH, I THINK IT'S OKAY.

THE REASON I THINK IT'S OKAY IS CUZ THE THEY'RE NOT GROWING RICE.

AND SO DURING THAT WINTER SEASON, AND, AND SOMETIME AFTER MARCH, THEY'LL PROBABLY START MAKING RELEASES UNLESS IN MY GUESS, RICHARD PROBABLY KNOWS BETTER WELL, ONLY IF IT GETS BACK ABOVE 1.3 AND THEN, UH, BUT THE LET'S SEE THE, THE MEDIAN CONDITION LINE, UH, GOES TO, UH, AROUND MARCH 1ST GOES TO 1.2.

SO BASED ON THE CURRENT PICTURE, IT'S, IT'S LOOKING LIKE THE MEDIA, THE 50 PERCENTILE CHANCE WILL STAY BELOW THE LEVEL THAT WOULD, UH, ALLOW FOR RELEASES NEXT YEAR.

AND THEY, AND IF THEY RELEASE, THEY WON'T START RELEASING UNTIL AFTER THIS DATE.

IF THEY, IF THEY STARTED RELEASING THAT GREEN LINE WOULD START GOING DOWN, BUT THE OTHER ONES WOULD NOT, CAUSE IT'S NOT THE RIGHT LEVEL.

I'LL, I'LL ADD SOMETHING TOO, IS THAT PART OF THIS PROJECTION PROCESS IS TO LOOK AT THE INSO CONDITIONS.

SO LINEA IS PART OF THIS PROJECTION AND THAT MAY BE WHY YOU'RE SEEING THAT BLUE LINE STAY FLATTER IS THERE WOULD BE LOWER INFLOWS UNDER AN EL NINO CONDITION DURING THE WINTER.

AND THEN THAT JUMP ON THE GREEN LINE THAT GOES AROUND OCTOBER, UH, OCTOBER'S HISTORICALLY A, UH, SORT OF A WILD CARD MONTH.

YOU CAN HAVE BIG INFLOWS DURING OCTOBER UNDER ANY CONDITION.

UH, BUT ONCE YOU GET PAST OCTOBER, THEN THE PERSISTENCE AND MONTHLY INFLOWS PICKS UP AND YOU CAN PROJECT OUT, UH, WITH SOME MORE CERTAINTY.

SO THAT'S WHY YOU SEE THAT GREEN LINE JUMP UP AND THEN FLATTEN OUT.

YEAH, IT'S MIGHT BE HELPFUL.

WE HAVE IN HERE THE, UM, INFLOWS CHART, THIS LIKE MONTHLY INFLOWS CHART.

SO YOU CAN SEE WE'VE GOTTEN HISTORICALLY IN THE PAST, WE'VE GOTTEN SOME JUMPS UP HERE IN THE MONTHS OF MAY AND JUNE AND THEN SOME JUMPS UP IN SEPTEMBER, OCTOBER.

UM, THAT'S, WE'VE KIND

[00:25:01]

OF GOT A, LIKE A BIMODAL DISTRIBUTION OF SOME OF THESE LARGER RAIN EVENTS HERE IN CENTRAL TEXAS.

SO WE'VE, UH, FOR EXAMPLE, OCTOBER, WE WE'VE HAD HALLOWEEN FLOODS IN THE PAST THAT YOU PROBABLY REMEMBER.

SO SOME OF THOSE EVENTS ARE PROBABLY BAKED IN TO, UM, THE, THE HYDROLOGY THAT'S USED FOR THE STOCHASTIC, UM, SIMULATIONS.

UM, JOSHUA, IS IT POSSIBLE TO TURN YOUR CAMERA ON? WE HAVE TO HAVE YOUR CAMERA ON IN ORDER TO HAVE A QU TO HAVE YOU COUNTED AS PRESENT.

YES WE DO.

YEAH.

UM, JUST TO MAKE SURE WE HAVE ENOUGH.

OKAY.

YEAH, THAT'S FINE.

OKAY.

UM, WHO'S COMMUNICATING WITH JOSHUA.

WERE YOU TEXTING WITH HIM? JOSHUA? IF YOU CAN TURN YOUR CAMERA ON, HOW MANY PEOPLE DO WE HAVE? YEAH, WE NEED HIM TO THE, I THINK YES, THREE, SIX.

WE CAN CONTINUE THE PRESENTATION.

IS THAT OKAY? ALL RIGHT.

OKAY.

WE'RE GONNA, UM, MIX UP THE AGENDA A LITTLE BIT.

[4. Overview of Climate and Hydrology Analysis, presented by Austin Water staff and UT]

WE'RE GONNA MOVE NUMBER FOUR UP.

UM, THE CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGY ANALYSIS.

IS THAT CORRECT? MM-HMM OKAY.

SO WE'RE GONNA GO AHEAD AND GO FORWARD WITH THAT ONE.

AND THEN WE WILL RESUME WITH THE 20 WITH THE IMPLEMENTATION AND THE WATER 4 24 PROJECT STATUS.

YAY.

I THINK LET'S KEEP MOVING AHEAD.

WE'RE COMMUNICATING WITH JOSHUA.

OKAY.

YEAH.

UM, HELLO EVERYBODY HELEN GARLOCK, AUSTIN WATER.

UM, I'M AN ENGINEER IN THE SYSTEMS PLANNER GROUP.

I'M AT AUSTIN WATER AND I'M THE TASK LEAD FOR THE UPDATE TO OUR CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGY ANALYSIS FOR THE WATER FOR 24 PLAN.

UM, WE ALSO HAVE HERE TODAY, SABIHA AND RICHARD WHO ARE WORKING ON THAT PROJECT AS WELL.

SO I WANTED TO GIVE THEM AN OPPORTUNITY TO INTRODUCE THEMSELVES UMS BEHA.

WOULD YOU WANNA INTRODUCE YOURSELF? HELLO.

MY NAME IS SABIHA.

I'M A GRADUATE STUDENT AT THE JACKSON SCHOOL OF GEOSCIENCE AT UT.

I HAVE BEEN WORKING IN THIS PROJECT AS RESEARCH ASSISTANT UNDER THE SUPERVISION OF DR.

ZANG AND IN OUR YOUTUBE TEAM.

WE ALSO HAVE DR.

DAVE NEGI DR.

P PAQUA, DR.

AND DR.

WIU OUR FORMER POSTDOC.

I'LL BE PRE PRESENTING OUR WORK ON BEHALF OF THEM TOO.

THANK YOU.

UH, RICHARD HOFF POWER, UH, CIVIL ENGINEER, SPECIALIZING IN WATER RESOURCES.

UH, I WORK WITH THE CITY OF AUSTIN ON, UH, WATER AVAILABILITY MODELING, UH, PERMITTING PLANNING TOPICS, AND, UM, PARTICIPATED IN WATER FOUR 18 AS WELL.

GREAT.

SO TODAY WE'LL BE PROVIDING AN UPDATE ON THE WORK THAT'S BEEN PERFORMED SO FAR FOR THE UPDATE TO THE CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGY ANALYSIS FOR THE WATER FORWARD PLAN.

UM, AND HOPEFULLY BE ABLE TO ANSWER ANY QUESTIONS YOU MIGHT HAVE ABOUT THAT WORK THAT'S BEEN DONE AND THEN KIND OF WHAT OUR NEXT STEPS WILL BE.

CAN WE MOVE TO THE NEXT SLIDE PLEASE? SO ONE OF THE BIG CHANGES FOR THE WATER FORWARD 24 UPDATE, UM, COMPARED TO OUR LAST PLAN IS THAT WE WANT TO, UM, BETTER INCORPORATE, UM, UNCERTAINTY PLANNING IN THIS PROCESS.

SO INSTEAD OF TRYING TO DETERMINE, UM, WHAT FUTURE WOULD BE MOST LIKELY, WHICH IS REALLY HARD TO DO DUE TO THE DEEP UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED, UM, WITH THESE DIFFERENT VARIABLES THAT ARE AFFECTING WATER AVAILABILITY IN THE FUTURE, WE WANT TO JUST IDENTIFY A RANGE OF POSSIBLE FUTURES AND THEN CHOOSE A PORTFOLIO OF OPTIONS THAT WORKS WELL ACROSS AS MANY OF THOSE FUTURES AS POSSIBLE.

AND AS ALSO ADAPTABLE, UM, AS WE MOVE FORWARD FURTHER INTO THOSE FURTHER OUT PLANNING HORIZONS FOR THE PURPOSES OF THE WATER FORWARD PLAN.

WHEN WE SAY A RANGE OF FUTURES, WHAT THAT ULTIMATELY MEANS IS, UM, DIFFERENCES IN WATER AVAILABILITY.

UM, SO YOU CAN SEE THAT REPRESENTED THERE IN THAT CONE OF UNCERTAINTY.

SO ULTIMATELY WHAT WE'RE PLANNING FOR IS UNCERTAINTY AROUND WATER THAT WOULD BE AVAILABLE TO THE CITY AND FACTORING INTO, UM, WHAT'S CAUSING THE WATER AVAILABILITY TO BE DIFFERENT OR TO CHANGE WOULD BE, UM, OUR CITY OF AUSTIN DEMANDS.

UM, WHAT'S HAPPENING WITH THE CLIMATE POTENTIAL DROUGHTS, WORSE IN THE DROUGHT OF

[00:30:01]

RECORD AND THEN TRENDS IN, UM, REGIONAL SUPPLIES.

SO WE'RE DEVELOPING RANGES, UM, FOR ALL OF THOSE DIFFERENT VARIABLES THAT WILL ULTIMATELY ALL FACTOR INTO DESCRIBING, UM, A BROAD RANGE OF POSSIBLE WATER AVAILABILITIES.

AND THEN OUR GOAL WILL BE TO FIND A ROBUST PORTFOLIO THAT WORKS WELL ACROSS, UM, AS MANY OF THOSE NEAR TERM, UM, SCENARIOS AS POSSIBLE.

AND THAT'S ADAPTABLE TO MEET FUTURE, UM, VARIATION AS WE MOVE FURTHER OUT TO HELP FACILITATE THAT.

WE'LL ALSO HAVE AN ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT PLAN THAT WILL INFORM THOSE FURTHER OUT DECISIONS.

SO WE CAN SEE IF WE'RE TRENDING IN ONE DIRECTION OR ANOTHER, FOR INSTANCE, MAYBE, UM, GLOBAL TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASING MORE THAN WE THOUGHT OR LESS THAN WE THOUGHT.

AND THEN WE'LL BE ABLE TO USE OUR ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT PLAN TO MAKE STRATEGY DECISIONS, UM, THAT BEST MEET THAT PARTICULAR, UM, FUTURES NEEDS.

AND WE'LL BE ABLE TO CONTINUALLY REEVALUATE AND ADJUST A KEY DECISION POINTS AS WE MOVE FORWARD.

MOVE TO THE NEXT SLIDE, PLEASE.

SO THE CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGY ANALYSIS THAT WE'RE TALKING ABOUT TODAY IS A PART OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THOSE, UM, UNCERTAIN FUTURES.

SO DEVELOPING THOSE DIFFERENT WATER AVAILABILITIES.

SO THE KEY GOALS FOR THE ANALYSIS FOR THE WATER FOR 24 UPDATE, UM, ARE TO LOOK AT A RANGE OF POSSIBLE FUTURE CLIMATE SCENARIOS.

SO WE'RE LOOKING AT MULTIPLE EMISSION SCENARIOS, WHICH WE'LL TALK ABOUT A LITTLE MORE.

UM, LATER IN THE PRESENTATION, WE ALSO PERFORMED AN ANALYSIS OF THE HIGH LEVEL CLIMATE TRENDS IN THE BASIN.

SO ALTHOUGH WE'RE LOOKING AT MULTIPLE EMISSION SCENARIO, EMISSION SCENARIOS, LOOKING ACROSS ALL OF THEM AND IDENTIFYING, UM, CONSISTENT TRENDS THAT WE'RE SEEING IN THE FUTURE, AND THEN ULTIMATELY USING THAT INFORMATION TO GENERATE CLIMATE CHANGE ADJUSTED STREAM FOR THE DATA THAT CAN BE USED IN THE WATER AVAILABILITY MODEL, UM, TO HELP US TEST OUR PORTFOLIO STRATEGIES AS PART OF THE WATER FORWARD EVALUATION PROCESS.

UM, NEXT SLIDE PLEASE.

SO JUST SOME KEY DIFFERENCES FROM THE 2018 WATER FORD PLAN THAT I WANTED TO HIGHLIGHT.

UM, THIS IS SPECIFICALLY RELATED TO THE CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGY ANALYSIS.

UM, IN THIS ROUND OF PLANNING, WE HAVE A PARTNERSHIP WITH UT AUSTIN, UM, THROUGH OUR CITIES INTER LOCAL AGREEMENT WITH UT, UM, AS C HAD MENTIONED, WE'RE WORKING WITH A TEAM OF RESEARCHERS, UM, TO PERFORM THE ACTUAL RUNNING OF THE GLOBE CLIMATE MO GLOBAL CLIMATE MODELS AND TO PERFORM THE DOWNSCALING.

UM, AND SOME OF THE OTHER WORK WE'LL BE TALKING ABOUT TODAY, WE'RE ALSO WORKING WITH A CLIMATE TECHNICAL ADVISORY GROUP, UM, WHICH IS A PANEL OF CLIMATE EXPERTS, UM, WHO REVIEW WORK THAT THE UT TEAM DOES AND MEET AND DISCUSS WITH US, UM, AND HELP US FIGURE OUT THE BEST APPROACH, UM, FOR EVALUATING ALL THESE, UM, DIFFERENT FUTURES.

I MENTIONED THAT WE'RE LOOKING AT MULTIPLE CLIMATE SCENARIOS, INCLUDING, UM, MULTIPLE EMISSION SCENARIOS, AND THEN WE'VE DEVELOPED NEW HYDROLOGIC MODELS TO TRANSLATE THAT, UM, GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL WEATHER DATA INTO FLOW DATA THAT CAN BE USED IN THE WHAM.

SO THOSE ARE SOME OF THE, THE BIG CHANGES FROM THE LAST PLAN.

NEXT SLIDE PLEASE.

AND SO HERE, WE'VE LAID OUT, UM, THE TASKS, UM, THAT'LL BE PERFORMED FOR THE 24 WATER 4 24 CLIMATE AND HYDROLOGY UPDATE.

UM, I WON'T GO INTO TOO MUCH DETAIL ON TASK TWO TO FOUR BECAUSE THAT'S WHAT RICHARD AND SHO WILL BE TALKING ABOUT, UM, IN THE LATER SLIDES, BUT JUST IN GENERAL, UM, THE FIRST STEP WAS TO SELECT THE GLOBAL CLIMATE MODELS THAT WERE REPRESENTATIVE, UM, OF OUR REGION, UH, TO USE THOSE, TO GENERATE DATA.

THOSE MODELS WERE RUN.

UM, WE GOT WEATHER DATA FROM THE MODELS, AND THEN, UM, WE PERFORMED GCM DOWNSCALING, UH, TO TAKE THE WEATHER DATA FROM THE LARGER GCM GRIDS DOWN TO A SIZE THAT WAS USEFUL FOR OUR ANALYSIS.

AND THEN USING THAT DOWNSCALED AND BIAS CORRECTED DATA.

WE PERFORMED THAT LONG TERM TREND ANALYSIS IN THE WEATHER VARIABLES TO LOOK FOR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT A HUNDRED YEARS.

THEN IN TASK FOUR, WE DEVELOPED HYDROLOGIC MODELS THAT TRANSLATED THAT WEATHER DATA INTO STREAM FLOWS.

AND WE'RE NOW IN THE TASK FIVE STEP WHERE WE'RE TAKING THOSE DOWN SKILLED, UM, OR EXCUSE ME, PROJECTED STREAM FLOWS AND, UM, PACKAGING, PACKAGING THEM SUCH THAT THEY'RE ABLE TO BE USED IN THE WATER AVAILABILITY MODEL.

THE NEXT STEP WILL THEN BE SAMPLING THOSE CLIMATE ADJUSTED FLOWS AND, UM, PERIOD OF RECORD FLOWS TO DEVELOP STOCHASTIC DROUGHT SEQUENCES, UM, TO LOOK AT DROUGHT FORCE IN THE DROUGHT OF RECORD, AND THEN, UM, USING ALL OF THAT IN THE WATER FORWARD PROCESS.

SO THAT TEST SEVEN, THERE, WE WILL CONTINUE OUR COORDINATION WITH UT, UM,

[00:35:01]

THROUGHOUT THE WATERFORD UPDATE PROCESS, UM, ESPECIALLY FOR COMMUNICATIONS AND PRESENTATIONS AND REPORT THROUGH THE, THE END OF THE PROCESS IN 2024.

AND SO THAT, I THINK I'M HANDING IT OVER TOSHA TO TALK A LITTLE BIT MORE ABOUT TASK TWO, THE SELECTION OF GCMS BEFORE YOU GO.

DOES ANYONE HAVE QUESTIONS? THAT WAS A LOT RIGHT THERE.

IF ANYONE HAS A QUESTION OR CLARIFICATION, I, OR DOES IT KNOW? I HAVE A, I'VE GOT A QUESTION, JENNIFER.

YEAH.

THANK YOU.

IS THAT VANESSA? YES.

OKAY.

GO AHEAD.

UM, SO I WAS JUST WONDERING ON THE STEPS WHERE YOU'RE LOOKING AT THE, UM, TO PREDICT SCREEN FLOW.

I JUST WANTED TO MAKE SURE ARE YOU LOOKING JUST, THIS IS JUST, I DON'T REALLY QUITE UNDERSTAND HOW IT ALL WORKS, BUT ARE YOU LOOKING THEN AT SPECIFIC, UH, SCREEN FLOW STRETCHES THAT OUR TRIBUTARY TO THE HIGHLAND LAKES OR HOW, HOW DO YOU IDENTIFY WHICH, YOU KNOW, STREET FLOW SEGMENTS YOU'RE ACTUALLY LOOKING AT? SURE.

UM, I THINK RICHARD WILL TALK A LITTLE BIT MORE ABOUT THAT.

UM, WHEN HE GOES OVER TASK FOUR, BUT IN GENERAL, UM, IT'S TIED TO THE WHAM CONTROL POINTS.

SO THE CONTROL POINTS, UM, THAT ARE USED IN THE WATER AVAILABILITY MODEL AND THOSE CONTROL POINTS ARE LOCATED AT 43 DIFFERENT LOCATIONS IN THE ENTIRE, THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE LOWER COLORADO RIVER BASIN, THE LOW O HIV THERE.

AND WE'VE GOT A NICE MAP OF IT LATER, UM, THAT WILL HOPEFULLY ANSWER YOUR QUESTION BETTER, WHICH SURFACE WATER MODEL ARE YOU USING, UM, TO PROJECT STREAM FLOWS? UM, WELL, SO WE'RE USING A STATISTICAL MODEL, UM, WHICH I THINK AGAIN, RICHARD WILL TALK ABOUT MORE, UM, BUT IT'S SIMILAR TO WHAT, UH, DR.

HA HO DID IN THE, UH, LAST, UH, LAST PLAN, UM, BUT UPDATED, UM, TO MAKE 'EM A LITTLE MORE ROBUST THAN WHAT WAS USED LAST TIME.

DID WE WANT TALK ABOUT IT NOW OR LET'S MOVE FORWARD? YEAH, LET'S GO AHEAD AND GO.

YEAH.

ALL RIGHT.

I'LL PASS IT OFF.

SORRY.

OVER TO YOU SAVI.

UH, CAN WE MOVE TO THE NEXT SLIDE? OKAY.

MOVE CLOSER.

YES.

SO THINKS ARE TOOLS THAT ARE USED BY SCIENTISTS TO UNDERSTAND HOW ART SYSTEM WORKS AND PROJECT FUTURE CLIMATE.

SO THESE ARE LIKE VIRTUAL WORLD WHERE, WHICH MIMICS THE PHYSICAL PROCESSES OF THE WORLD.

AND WE CAN USE THOSE TO LOOK INTO HOW THE FUTURE MIGHT LOOK LIKE FOR THE WORLD.

SO THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF GCMS AVAILABLE, WE, BUT WE WANT TO USE THE FUTURE.

SO TO IDENTIFY THESE BASED LIKE MOST SUITABLE MODELS, WE EVALUATE THE HISTORY CORE SIMULATIONS OF THE GCMS, UH, ON OVER THE COLLABO RIVER BASIN AND SELECT THE BEST PERFORMING MODELS.

NEXT SLIDE PLEASE.

SO WE LOOKED AT 35 DCMS FROM THE COUPLE MODEL INTERCOMPARISON PROJECT PHASE SIX.

SO THE CIP SIX, IT'S A, UH, PROJECT WHERE MULTIPLE AGENCIES FROM ALL ACROSS THE WORLD TAKES PART IN.

THEY RUN DIFFERENT EXPERIMENTS AND THEY SHARE THE OUTPUT.

SO, UH, THESE OUTPUT CIRCLE, UH, SIMULATIONS.

SO WE, WE LOOKED AT THE HISTORICAL SIMULATIONS OF THESE MODELS AND EVALUATED THOSE AGAINST OBSERVATION.

SO WE ARE LOOKING AT THE OBSERVED SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL CHARACTERISTICS OF TEMPERATURE, PRECIPITATION, AND NUMBER OF DRIVERS OVER THE COLOR RIVER WERE BASIN.

SO ON THE TOP PANEL, IF YOU LOOK AT THOSE FACIAL CHARACTERISTICS, WE CAN SEE THAT THERE IS ARAS GRADIENT IN PRECIPITATION AND NUMBER OF DRY.

AND THERE IS AN OUTSIDE GRADIENT IN THE TEMPERATURE OVER THE COLOR RIVER BASIN.

AND IN THE BOTTOM PANEL, IF WE LOOK AT THE TEMPORAL CHARACTERISTICS, WE SEE THAT THERE ARE TWO PEAKS IN THE PRECIPITATION CYCLE.

WE HAVE HIGHER TEMPERATURE IN THE SUMMER, AND WE HAVE OPPOSITE PEAKS IN THE ANNUAL DRY CYCLE.

SO WE LOOK FOR THE SIX FEATURES IN THE CLIMATE MODELS.

NEXT SLIDE, WE USE THIS STATISTICAL

[00:40:01]

MAJOR CALLED SKILLS SCOPE THAT SHOWS LIKE HOW WELL EACH OF THIS FEATURE IS REPRESENTED IN THE MODEL.

SO IF YOU LOOK AT THE SECOND COLUMN, THIS S SPECIAL T THIS MEANS THE SKILL SCORE FOR REPRESENTING THE SPECIAL CHARACTERISTICS OF TEMPERATURE IN SIMILAR WAY.

WE HAVE ALL SIX, AND THIS IS OVERALL, IT'S THE AVERAGE OF THE SIX SCORES.

AND BASED ON THIS OVERALL SCORE, WE RANK THE MODELS FROM ONE TO 35.

HERE WE ARE SHOWING THE TOP 10 BEST SCORING G FROM THIS 10, WE SELECTED FIVE MODELS BASED ON THE DATA AVAILABILITY.

NEXT SLIDE PLEASE.

SO WHAT IS N D D ASSUME P IS PRECIPITATION ND IS THE DRY DAYS NUMBER OF NUMBER OF DRY.

OKAY.

YES.

THANK YOU.

SO THE FUTURE SCENARIOS IN THE GLOBAL CLIMATE MODELS, THOSE ARE IN THE SY SIX, THOSE ARE REPRESENTED AS SHARED SOCIOECONOMIC PATHWAYS OR SSPS.

SO THESE ARE GIVING US DIFFERENT TRAJECTORIES ARE GREENHOUSE GAS, EMISSION, ACCORDING TO DIFFERENT CLIMATE POLICIES.

SO THE FUTURE CLIMATE IT'S GOING TO BE DIFFERENT BASED ON HOW MUCH GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSION, GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSION, UM, IS OCCURRING.

SO WE ARE COVERING A WIDE RANGE OF THESE EMISSIONS.

SO IF WE LOOK AT THE TABLE, WE HAVE SSP ONE, 2.6, THAT IS LOW EMISSION SSP, TWO, 4.5, UH, MEDIUM EMISSION S P FIVE, 8.5 HIGH EMISSION.

AND WE, WE CAN'T, UH, ALSO LOOK AT THE CORRESPONDING END OF CENTURY WARMING LEVEL OVER THE COLOR WE WERE MISSING ACCORDING TO THESE SCENARIOS.

SO WITH THIS SELECTION OF THESE GCMS AND THE EMISSION SCENARIOS, WE ARE COVERING A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBLE FEATURE, WHICH WILL HELP US WITH THE DECISION, UM, WITH THE , UH, NEXT SLIDE, PLEASE.

SO THE NEXT STEP AFTER SELECTING THE MODEL IS TO DOWNSCALE AND BIO CORRECT THEM.

SO WE WANT TO GET THE DATA IN A FORM, WHICH WE CAN USE FOR OUR IN-DEPTH ANALYSIS.

SO WE, IT, UM, WE IMPROVE THE DATA RESOLUTION ELSE AND ALSO REMOVE IF THERE IS ANY BIAS IN THE GCM, WE REMOVE THOSE.

SO WE ARE USING DIFFERENT STATISTICAL DOWN SCALING AND BIAS CORRECTION METHOD TO DO THIS.

UM, NEXT SLIDE, PLEASE, UM, IN THE WATER AVAILABILITY MODEL, THE EVAPORATION AND PRECIPITATION INPUT, THOSE GOES, UH, AS ONE DEGREE BOXES, BUT THE GRID BOXES IN THE DCMS, THEY VARY FROM MODEL TO MODEL.

SO WHAT WE DID IS WE REGRETTED THEM TO COMMON, ONE DEGREE BOXES OVER THE COLORADO.

WE WERE BASIN.

SO THIS IS THE DOWN SCALING.

AND AFTER THAT, WE USE THAT DOWNSCALED DAILY, MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE IN HAGIS EVA EVAPORATION EQUATION TO GET THE EVA LEG OPERATION.

UH, CAN YOU PLEASE PRESS CLICK? YES.

SO THIS STEP, IT BIOS SCRIPTS, THE MODEL OF OPERATION TO MATCH THE OBSERVATION, WHICH IS THE T WDB MONTHLY TOTAL LEG OPERATION, THE OTHER VARIABLES, UH, THAT'S MAXIMUM, AND THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION, THOSE ARE ALSO BIAS, CORRECT TO MATCH THE OBSERVATION AND WE USE, UH, DIFFERENT STATISTICAL METHOD, UH, WHICH JUST MORE, UH, BASED ON WHICH IS MORE SUITABLE FOR WHICH VARIABLE, UH, NEXT SLIDE PLEASE.

SO AFTER WE HAVE, UH, DOWNSCALED AND BIOS CORRECTED DATA, NEXT WE PERFORM TRAIN ANALYSIS.

SO THE GOAL IS TO, TO, UH, IS TO SEE HOW THE CLIMATE OVER THE COLOR WE WERE BASED IN MIGHT LOOK LIKE IN THE FUTURE, IS IT GOING TO BE BETTER OR DR.

WARMER OR COLDER? SO THAT IS WHY WE ARE DOING THIS EXERCISE AND TO DO THAT, WE COMPARED THE FUTURE PROJECTIONS WITH THE HISTORY CORE DATA AND IDENTIFY HOW DIFFERENT THEY ARE.

NEXT SLIDE, PLEASE.

WE PERFORM TRAIN ANALYSIS OVER THIS EIGHT VARIABLES.

SO WE COMPUTED THIS USING THE BIO CORRECTED DAILY TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION.

SO WE HAVE LOOKED AT AVERAGE PRECIPITATION, AVERAGE TEMPERATURE, AND ALSO NUMBER OF DRY DAYS WITH DAYS, COLD DAYS, HOT DAYS OR IN A YEAR, AND ALSO

[00:45:01]

THE MAXIMUM PRECIPITATION IN A YEAR.

AND WE DID THIS GENERALLY THIS, UH, OVER THE COLORADO RIVER AND ALSO OVER AUSTIN.

NEXT SLIDE PLEASE.

AND OUR ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE ANIMAL TEMPERATURE OVER THE COLORADO, WE WERE BA IS PROJECTED TO INCREASE THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION IS PROJECTED TO SHIFT.

SO WE MIGHT GET LESS FREQUENT, BUT MORE INTENSE RAINFALL IN THE FUTURE.

AND ALSO THE NUMBER OF DRY DAYS, UH, ARE PROJECTED TO INCREASE.

SO THAT'S WHAT WE DID FOR THE TASK TWO AND TASK THREE, UH, QUESTION, DO YOU WANT TO GO OVER A QUESTION NOW OR I CAN PASS IT OVER TO RICHARD? WHY DON'T YOU GO AHEAD AND GO, RICHARD.

OKAY.

HI.

UM, AS IN NEXT SLIDE, PLEASE, AS, UH, HELEN AND SABIHA DESCRIBED, UH, FOR WATER 4 24, WE HAVE NEW CLIMATE MODELS AND, UH, NEW EMISSION SCENARIOS.

SO THE, THAT INFORMATION IS THEN ULTIMATELY LEADING TO OUR STREAM FLOW PROJECTIONS.

AND THE GOAL HERE WAS TO TAKE THAT INFORMATION FROM THE CLIMATE MODELS AND PROJECT OUT TO THE END OF THE CENTURY, WHAT OUR STREAM FLOW CONDITIONS COULD LOOK LIKE UNDER DIFFERENT EMISSION SCENARIOS.

THE REASON WE'RE LOOKING FAR OUT INTO THE FUTURE IS BECAUSE AS YOU KNOW, THE WATER FORWARD PLANNING PROCESS COVERS A HUNDRED YEARS OF PROJECTED, UH, DEMANDS OUT INTO THE FUTURE.

AND SO WE WANNA BE ABLE TO EVALUATE THOSE DEMANDS OUT INTO THE FUTURE UNDER DIFFERENT EMISSION SCENARIOS.

WE LOOKED AT TWO METHODS FOR PROJECTING THOSE STREAM FLOWS.

ONE WAS SOME PACKAGED DATA THAT COMES WITH THE GCM DATA SETS AND SOME AERIAL RUNOFF PROJECTIONS THAT HAVE TO BE, UH, RESCALED TO THE LOCAL SETTING.

AND THEN WE LOOKED AT THE MORE, UH, CONVENTIONAL OR ESTABLISHED METHOD OF TAKING THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTPUTS FROM THE CLIMATE MODELS, AND THEN PERFORMING A MULTIVARIATE FLOW ANALYSIS TO, TO DEVELOP THE PROJECTIONS.

MULTIVARIATE JUST MEANS THERE'S MANY, MANY MEASURES OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE INVOLVED.

UM, NEXT, NEXT SLIDE.

SO THESE NEXT FEW SLIDES ARE SORT OF THE PROCESS AND HOW THESE FLOW MODELS ARE PUT TOGETHER, BUT HERE WE HAVE THE SPACIAL SCALE.

SO WE'RE LOOKING AT THE ENTIRE COLORADO RIVER BASIN, THE GRIDED AREAS, THOSE ARE THE SAME GRIDS THAT SJA SHOWED IN HER PRESENTATION.

THOSE ARE LOCATIONS WHERE WE HAVE TEMPERATURE AND PRECI PRECIPITATION PROJECTED FROM THE CLIMATE MODELS, UH, THE CIRCULAR, THOSE LITTLE DOTS ACROSS THE BASIN.

THOSE ARE THE CONTROL POINTS THAT MARISSA AND HELEN REFERRED TO EARLIER.

SO THESE ARE ALL THE MAJOR STREAM GAUGES ALL ACROSS THE, THE BASIN AND THE TRIBUTARIES TO THE HIGHLAND LAKES, AS WELL AS DOWNSTREAM OF THE HIGHLAND LAKES.

UM, THE REASON WE'RE LOOKING AT THE ENTIRE BASIN IS WE'RE EVALUATING THE WATER SUPPLY AVAILABILITY IN THE STATE'S WATER AVAILABILITY MODEL.

AND THAT MODEL TAKES INTO CONSIDERATION ALL THE WATER RIGHTS AND RESERVOIRS THROUGHOUT THE STATE AND THE INTERACTIONS, THOSE THOSE RIGHTS AND RESERVOIRS HAVE WITH EACH OTHER, ACCORDING TO THEIR PRIORITY DATES.

UM, JUST A LITTLE OTHER BACKGROUND ON THE COLORADO WHAM, IT'S GOT A HISTORICAL PERIOD OF RECORD OF 1940 THROUGH 2016 FOR OUR BASIN.

SO IT DOES COVER THE ENTIRETY OF THE LAST DROUGHT OF RECORD, WHICH WE, WE KIND OF CALL THE, THE DROUGHT OF THE 2010S, UM, NEXT SLIDE.

SO THIS IS WHERE THE MULTIVARIATE PART COMES INTO PLAY.

THE INPUTS TO THE FLOW MODEL ARE WHAT WE CALL FEATURES AND FEATURES ARE DEFINED AS JUST THESE MEASURES OF THE INPUT VARIABLES, TEMPERATURE, AND PRECIPITATION, BUT AVERAGED DIFFERENT TIME SCALES AND USING DIFFERENT THRESHOLDS.

SO THAT MIGHT MEAN LOOKING AT PRECIPITATION JUST IN THE CURRENT MONTH OR LOOKING AT THE PRECIPITATION AVERAGED OUT OVER THE LAST SIX MONTHS, OR LOOKING AT THE PRECIPITATION THAT FELL IN DAILY EVENTS THAT EXCEEDED ONE INCH PER DAY.

SO THERE'S LOTS OF COMBINATIONS WITH TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION THAT WE CAN PUT TOGETHER.

ULTIMATELY, WE PUT, PUT TOGETHER ABOUT A THOUSAND DIFFERENT FEATURES AND THEN SCREENED THOSE FEATURES DOWN

[00:50:01]

TO 10 FOR EACH CONTROL POINT.

SO THOSE TOP 10 FEATURES AT EACH CONTROL POINT REPRESENT A SET THAT IS BOTH SORT OF MAXIMALLY RELEVANT TO FLOW, BUT ALSO MINIMALLY REDUNDANT BETWEEN FEATURES.

SO IT'S A VERY INFORMATION DENSE SET PER CONTROL POINT.

AND THEN THOSE 10 FEATURES ARE USED IN THE FLOW MODELING PROCESS, WHICH WILL BE DESCRIBED NEXT.

BUT BEFORE WE GO THERE, I'LL JUST MENTION ON THAT RIGHT SIDE OF THE SLIDE.

THESE ARE TWO STREAM GAUGES NEAR AUSTIN.

ONE IS THE PET ALICE RIVER, JUST UPSTREAM OF LAKE TRAVIS, ONE, UH, THE COLORADO RIVER AT AUSTIN.

SO IT'S KIND OF IN THE CITY A LITTLE BIT DOWNSTREAM OF THE CITY.

ONE'S A SHALLOW STREAM.

ONE'S A VERY DEEP RIVER AND YOU CAN SEE THE, UH, THESE ARE THE TOP 10 FEATURES SELECTED AT THESE TWO GAUGES.

THE, THE EXAMPLE HERE IS JUST TO SHOW THERE ARE SOME SIMILARITIES AND DIFFERENCES BETWEEN CONTROL POINTS AND HOW THEY'RE FEATURES ARE CONSTRUCTED.

UM, RICHARD, YEAH.

COULD YOU JUST PICK A BASIN AND JUST WALK THROUGH THOSE 10 REAL QUICK AND REAL QUICK? THAT'S WHAT I WAS, I WAS DEBATING IN MY HEAD IF I SHOULD.

CAUSE I THINK LIKE DESCRIBE ALL I THINK I KNOW OF ALL THOSE ME, BUT I'M NOT SURE.

AND I WOULD BE GOOD TO JUST ACTUALLY KNOW.

YEAH.

UM, YEAH, WE'LL JUST DO THE ONE, THE PET ALICE RIVER THERE THAT'S UH, THE FIRST ONE SELECTED IS PRECIPITATION AND UNDERNEATH WHERE IT SAYS PRECIPITATION, IT SAYS EXPON OR E XP.

THAT'S AN EXPONENTIAL MOVING AVERAGE, UH, WITH A SMOOTHING TERM OF SIX.

SOMETIMES THAT'S CALLED A SIX MONTH EXPONENTIAL AVERAGE, BUT IT'S, IT'S NOT TECHNICALLY SIX MONTHS.

THE NEXT ONE IS THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AND THAT'S AN ARITHMETIC MOVING AVERAGE.

SO THAT'S WHAT YOU WOULD NORMALLY THINK OF AS A MOVING AVERAGE IT'S 17 MONTHS.

AND THEN WE HAVE DRY DAYS.

SO THAT'S THE NUMBER OF DRY DAYS EVERY MONTH, EXPONENTIALLY AVERAGED OUT WITH A SMOOTHER OF 11 AND KIND OF SO FORTH LIKE THAT.

EACH CONTROL POINT HAS A UNIQUE SET OF TOP 10 FEATURES THAT WERE SELECTED.

AND NOW I UNDERSTAND WHAT THOSE MEAN.

THIS IS, UH, YOU KNOW, I DON'T KNOW ABOUT EVERYBODY ELSE, BUT THIS IS A LOT OF THIS IS WAY OVER MY HEAD.

SO LIKE, UM, BUT, UM, I, THE, WE HAVE A REALLY, REALLY GOOD STUDY TEAM.

AND AS WE GO THROUGH THIS, I THINK LIKE, YOU KNOW, FOCUSING ON KIND OF WHAT THE TAKEAWAYS ARE AND THEN ROBERT IS OVER HERE GOING THROUGH THEM ALL.

AND IT'S GONNA ASK A LOT OF REALLY SPECIFIC QUESTIONS.

GOOD.

ALL RIGHT.

I'LL, I'LL PAUSE.

HE'S OUR, HE'S OUR DIGGING AND THEN BILL'S GOING TO GONNA COME IN TOO, SO RIGHT.

UM, NEXT SLIDE PLEASE.

SO NOW, NOW THAT WE HAVE THE SPACIAL SCALE AND THE INPUT SELECTED, THIS IS WHERE THEY END UP AND THIS, THIS IS THE FLOW MODEL ITSELF.

IT'S EACH ONE AT EVERY CONTROL POINT.

THERE'S A SIMPLE NEURAL NETWORK, UH, BUILT NEURAL NETWORKS.

THERE'S A TYPE OF MACHINE LEARNING TECHNIQUE.

AND EACH ONE OF THESE FLOW MODELS CONNECTS TO THE NEXT DOWNSTREAM MODEL.

THE PICTOGRAM ON THE LEFT SIDE.

THAT'S WHAT THE ARCHITECTURE OF THAT NEURAL NETWORK LOOKS LIKE OVER ON THE LEFT SIDE.

THOSE ARE THE PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE FEATURES KIND OF BLUE AND ORANGE BOXES OVER THERE ON THE LEFT.

AND THEY FEED IN.

SO IT'S A FEED FORWARD NEURAL NETWORK.

IT FEEDS FROM LEFT TO RIGHT THROUGH THE, THROUGH THE MODEL, THE LITTLE BLUE KIND OF CURVY LINE IN THAT CENTER CIRCLE.

THAT'S THE, THE NEURON IN THE NEURAL NETWORK.

SO THAT MODEL IS, UH, ESTABLISHED AT EACH CONTROL POINT.

AND THEN THE BOXES THERE, THOSE GREEN SET OF BOXES KIND OF, UH, LEFT OR RIGHT OF CENTER.

THAT'S THE TRAINING PROCESS.

SO IT'S GIVEN THE HISTORICAL PRECIPITATION TEMPERATURE, HISTORICAL FLOWS, IT TRAINS ON THAT INFORMATION.

AND THEN ONCE THE MODEL'S TRAINED TO THAT INFORMATION, THEN WE USE THAT MODEL TO PROJECT.

SO WE FEED IT THEN THE, THE INFORMATION FROM THE CLIMATE MODELS.

SO THOSE SAME 10 FEATURES, BUT CREATED FROM THE CLIMATE MODELS AND WE GET OUR FUTURE FLOWS AND NEXT SLIDE IT.

SO THIS IS A DESCRIPTION OR, OR PICTOGRAM OF WHAT THE FLOWS LOOK LIKE FROM OUR PROJECTIONS.

SO THE, THE TAKEAWAY IS CONSISTENT THROUGH MOST OF THE

[00:55:01]

CONTROL POINTS IN THE BASIN IS, UH, THERE'S A TENDENCY FOR LOWER FLOWS AS THE CLIMATE WARMS OUT OVER TIME.

HOWEVER, THERE ARE, UH, EXTREME FLOWS THAT INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE COMPARED TO WHAT WE'VE SEEN IN THE PAST.

SO YOU KIND OF, I KNOW THAT SOUNDS LIKE YOU'RE TALKING FROM BOTH SIDES OF YOUR MOUTH, BUT YOU DO HAVE THE MAJORITY OF THE FLOWS GETTING LOWER, BUT INTERSPERSED IN THERE ARE SOME, UH, FLOODING EVENTS.

THESE BOXES HERE, UH, REPRESENT TWO PERIODS IN TIME.

ONE IS SORT OF, MID-CENTURY CENTERED AROUND THE YEAR 2050, AND THEN ANOTHER SET OF BOXES OUT TO 2100 OR THE LAST 20 YEARS OF THE DATA SET.

THIS EXAMPLE IS THE COLORADO RIVER AT AUSTIN.

I DON'T THINK IT'S ON THE SLIDE.

THE COLORED BOXES REPRESENT OUR EMISSION SCENARIOS FOR THOSE TIME HORIZONS.

SO THE, UM, SSP ONE IS A LITTLE BIT LESS EMISSION COMPARED TO SSP TWO POINT, UH, TWO, 4.5, WHICH IS THAT GREEN BOX AND OUR HIGHEST EMISSION SCENARIO, THERE IS THE PURPLE BOX ALL THE WAY ON THE RIGHT OF EACH GRAPH.

THE TAKEAWAY HERE IS THE FLOWS AGAIN, SORT OF SHIFT DOWN ON THOSE GRAPHS AS THE FLOWS DRY UP OVER TIME AND TIME, AND WITH HEATING, UM, THE XS ACROSS THOSE BOXES ARE THE MEANS IF YOU'RE READING A BOX PLOT WITH THE SYMBOLS ON IT.

SO, UM, WITH THAT, I CAN TURN IT OVER TO HELEN OR TAKE SOME QUESTIONS.

SO YES, ROBERT, SO WHY USE A MACHINE LEARNING INSTEAD OF MORE DETERMINISTIC SURFACE WATER MODELING? UM, ULTIMATELY WE HAD TO GO WITH A MODELING TECHNIQUE AND SOME OF IT WAS WHAT WAS WORK WE'D ALREADY DONE.

SO THIS WAS WORK I'D ALREADY, UH, PERFORMED.

AND IT WAS, UH, KIND OF PLUG AND PLAY, WHICH IS WE HAD THE INFORMATION FROM THE CLIMATE AUTO MODELS AND IT COULD GO RIGHT INTO THE NEURAL NETWORKS.

SO, SO THIS IS A SIMILAR APPROACH YOU DID FOR THE FIRST ROUND.

UH, DR.

HA HO USED A, SHE DIDN'T USE NEURAL NETWORKS.

SHE USED A MULTI-LINE MODELING TECHNIQUE.

I DON'T KNOW EXACTLY THE DETAILS OF IT, BUT IT WAS, IT, IT HAD THE SAME SORT OF FEEL OF TAKING A SMALL NUMBER OF FEATURES OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE KIND OF SCREENED OUT OF A MUCH LARGER UNIVERSE AND THEN RAN IT THROUGH A MODEL.

BUT IT WOULD, I GUESS YOU'D SAY THEY'RE COUSINS, ONE'S NEURAL NETWORK.

IT'S NON-LINEAR THE OTHER ONE WAS A LINEAR TYPE MODEL.

MIGHT BE MORE A QUESTION FOR THEREA, BUT, UH, WITH, WITH THE DIFFERENT, UM, SHARED SOCIOECONOMIC PATHWAYS, UM, UM, I GUESS, YOU KNOW, WE USE REPRESENTATIVE CONCENTRATION PATHWAY FOR THE FIRST PLAN.

UM, DO WE KNOW WHICH ONE WE'RE GOING TO USE FOR, FOR THIS ONE? IT'S KIND OF INTERESTING, JUST LOOKING AT, AT THESE RESULTS HERE THAT, YOU KNOW, THERE'S A, A BIG DROP EVEN FOR SS P 2.6, UM, AND THEN IT'S, AND IT'S LOWER, BUT NOT SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER FOR THE OTHER ONES.

UM, JUST KIND OF CURIOUS, AND I, AND, AND FOR THE OTHER MEMBERS OF THE TASK FORCE, UM, ALTHOUGH UNFORTUNATELY I'VE BEEN MISSING SOME OF THE SUBCOMMITTEE MEETINGS LATELY.

UM, I'VE KIND OF RAISED THE POINT THAT, THAT, UM, YOU KNOW, SS P 8.5 AND WE DID R CPA 0.5.

THE FIRST PLAN IS A PRETTY SEVERE PROJECTION OF TEMPERATURES THAT, THAT ALMOST NOBODY THINKS IS GOING TO HAPPEN.

AND SO I'VE BEEN PITCHING DOING SOMETHING, UM, LESS, LESS THAN THAT.

UM, AND I'M, I'M LOOKING AT CLIMATE ACTION TRACKER, FOR EXAMPLE, THAT PROJECTS, UM, WITH CURRENT POLICIES AND ACTIONS, NOT TARGETS, NOT PLEDGES.

UM, WE'RE LOOKING AT 2.5 TO 2.9 DEGREES CELSIUS, WHICH IS 4.5 TO 5.2, TWO DEGREES FAHRENHEIT WARMER AT THE END OF THE CENTURY.

UM, WHICH, WHICH LINES UP MORE WITH, UH, PROBABLY RCP, UM, OR I'M SORRY, SSP 2.6.

SO JUST CURIOUS IF ANY DECISIONS BEEN MADE THERE, WHAT THE PLAN IS GOING FORWARD WITH THESE DIFFERENT CLIMATE SCENARIOS.

YEAH.

SO I CAN MAYBE TAKE A STAB AT THAT.

NO OTHERS CAN ADD ON.

SO LAST TIME WE DID LARGELY JUST USE ONE, UM, RCP 8.5 SCENARIO.

AND THE GOAL FOR THIS, UM, PLANNING UPDATE IS TO INCREASE OUR, UM, THE WAY THAT WE'RE INCORPORATING UNCERTAINTY INTO THE PLAN.

SO SINCE WE DON'T KNOW, YOU KNOW, WHAT SSP WE'RE ULTIMATELY GONNA END UP ON THE, UM, THOUGHT IS THAT

[01:00:01]

WE'RE GOING TO USE ALL THREE OF THE SSPS TO GENERATE THAT RANGE OF WATER AVAILABILITIES, THAT WE'LL BE TESTING OUR STRATEGIES AGAINST.

AND THEN, UM, AS WE DEVELOP THAT ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT PLAN, THE DIFFERENT SSP, UM, VARIABLES WILL GO INTO A VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS.

THAT'LL HELP US IDENTIFY KIND OF, UM, WE'VE BEEN CALLING 'EM SIGN POSTS.

SO IF WE'RE SEEING THAT, YOU KNOW, WE'RE NOT GOING UP TO THE SSP 8.5 SIGN POSTS, THEN WE HAVE OUR ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT PLAN SAYING, YOU KNOW, MAYBE SOME OF THESE CHEAPER, LESS, UM, YOU KNOW, SUPPLY INTENSIVE STRATEGIES WOULD BE SUFFICIENT IF WE'RE NOT SEEING, YOU KNOW, THESE ADDITIONAL NEEDS, THAT WOULD BE, UM, KIND OF SKETCHED OUT BY THAT HIGHER SSP.

SO, UM, WE'RE USING ALL OF THEM.

THEY'LL ALL ULTIMATELY JUST FEED INTO A RANGE OF WATER AVAILABILITIES THAT WE'LL PLAN FOR, UM, AND THEN IDENTIFY KIND OF THESE SIGN POSTS THAT MIGHT SHOW US THAT WE'RE TRENDING IN ONE DIRECTION OR ANOTHER TOWARDS THESE DIFFERENT AVAILABILITIES.

AND SO WHAT YOU JUST SAID, THERE TIES IN THE ONE OF YOUR EARLY SLIDES, WHICH SHOWED THOSE DECISION POINTS MM-HMM , AND THEN WE'RE ALSO WELL SERVED BY A FIVE YEAR PLANNING CYCLE, WHICH ALLOWS US TO RESPOND TO WHAT'S ACTUALLY EXACTLY HAPPENING IN TERMS OF, UH, WELL, WHAT'S ACTUALLY HAPPENING AND ALSO WHAT'S HAPPENING IN TERMS OF, YOU KNOW, GLOBAL ACTIONS ON REDUCING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS.

YES.

YEAH, ABSOLUTELY.

I WOULD JUST LIKE TO JUMP IN AND I JUST WANT TO REEMPHASIZE THAT POINT, RIGHT? I MEAN, THIS IS ALL VERY DENSE AND VERY DEEP, AND YOU CAN SEE THAT WE'VE GOT A LOT OF VERY KNOWLEDGEABLE FOLKS HELPING US THROUGH THIS, BUT THERE'S A WIDE RANGE OF POSSIBILITIES IN THE FUTURE.

AND THE REALITY IS THAT AS GOOD AS ANY OF US ARE, WE CANNOT GUESS WHAT THAT EXACT OUTCOME WILL BE.

AND SO THE IMPORTANCE OF DEVELOPING AN APPROPRIATE ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT PLAN IS KEY HERE.

AND WE, WE STARTED IT WATER FOUR 18.

WE WANNA CONTINUE THAT IN WATER 4 24.

AND SO, YOU KNOW, AGAIN, APPRECIATE THIS, THIS CONVERSATION, BUT, BUT THAT WILL BE A KEY TAKEAWAY FOR ALL OF US.

IS THAT KIND OF UNDERSTANDING WHAT ARE THOSE TRIGGERS AND HOW DO WE KNOW THAT WE'RE ON THE RIGHT PATH OR WHEN WE KNOW OR THINK WE NEED TO CORRECT.

SO THAT'S MY RIGHT ADDITION.

I, YEAH.

AND, AND I LIKE THE APPROACH AND ALTHOUGH WE IT'S TRUE, WE DON'T KNOW WHAT THE FUTURE'S GOING TO HOLD.

UM, THERE IS SCIENCE OUT THERE THAT'S ASSIGNED PROBABILITIES TO THESE DIFFERENT PROJECTIONS AND, AND, UH, YOU KNOW, IT DOESN'T SEEM LIKE THERE'S ANY SAME PERSON SUGGESTING WE'RE GONNA HIT 8.5 AT THIS POINT.

BUT A LOT OF THESE, MY UNDERSTANDING OF THESE PROJECTIONS IS, YOU KNOW, THERE ARE GRAY SWANS OUT THERE.

SO YOU, THERE COULD BE SOME, SOME TIPPING POINTS THAT WE DON'T UNDERSTAND AND DON'T MODEL THAT COULD CERTAINLY, YOU KNOW, FLIP THINGS ONE DIRECTION OR THE OTHER.

UM, I THINK IN OUR NEXT TASK FORCE MEETING, IT WOULD BE HELPFUL FOR US TO REFRESH ON OUR SCENARIO PLANNING APPROACH THAT WE'RE USING FOR THE PRELIMINARY NEEDS OF ANALYSIS.

AND THEN OVERALL, UM, AS, AS PART OF OUR EVALUATION OF DIFFERENT GROUPINGS OF STRATEGIES.

SO THAT CAN BE SOMETHING WE TEE UP FOR THE NOVEMBER MEETING, JUST TO PUT A LOT OF THIS INFORMATION INTO CONTEXT.

WE'RE NOT JUST USING THESE PROJECTIONS EITHER.

WE'RE GONNA BE USING PERIOD OF RECORD HYDROLOGY AS ONE OF, UM, THIS SCENARIOS THAT WE TEST AGAINST AS WELL AS, UM, SOME SARCASTICALLY GENERATED DROUGHTS THAT ARE WORSE THAN THE DROUGHT OF RECORD WORSE THAN THE DROUGHT OF THE 2010S WILL ALSO HAVE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS OF DEMAND, CITY OF AUSTIN DEMAND AND POTENTIALLY DIFFERENT SCENARIOS OF, UH, SUPPLY.

SO WHEN YOU ADD ALL OF THOSE TOGETHER, WE ARE LOOKING AT HUNDREDS OF DIFFERENT SCENARIOS.

AND, AND AGAIN, THE, YOU KNOW, THE, AT LEAST AT LEAST THESE BAR CHARTS SHOWN HERE, THERE THERE'S DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THOSE DIFFERENT PROJECTIONS, BUT THEY'RE NOT, THEY'RE NOT, UH, MASSIVE DIFFERENCES.

IN OTHER WORDS, EVEN THOUGH THE TEMPERATURE IN A HUNDRED YEARS FOR SS P 8.5 IS TWICE THAT OF SSP 2.6, YOU DON'T SEE TWICE THE DECLINE IN FLOW.

SO IT SORT OF APPEARS THERE'S SOME, UM, I GUESS MAYBE MAXIMUM EFFECT MM-HMM I GUESS AT SOME POINT IT JUST GETS TOO DRY.

ANY CORE EFFECT CAN'T GET LOWER THAN ZERO.

RIGHT.

AND I WAS JUST, OKAY, I WAS GONNA ADD ONE MORE THING TOO TO THAT.

SO JUST, UM, WE ARE USING ALL OF THESE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS TO CREATE THIS HUGE WIDE RANGE OF WATER AVAILABILITIES, BUT THEN THERE'S ALSO GONNA BE A LOT OF THOUGHT PUT INTO HOW WE, UM, CHOOSE OUR STRATEGIES BASED ON THAT.

SO EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE A VERY, VERY SEVERE SCENARIO WITH POTENTIALLY SSP 8.5, THAT'S REALLY DRY AND REALLY HOT.

MAYBE WE DON'T NEED TO CHOOSE A PORTFOLIO AT THIS POINT, THAT IS A HUNDRED PERCENT RELIABLE IN THAT SCENARIO.

UM, SO THAT'S SOMETHING THAT WE WILL BE, UM, YOU KNOW, AS WE MOVE FORWARD THROUGH THE PLANNING PROCESS, WE'LL BE TAILORING, YOU KNOW, HOW ARE WE CHOOSING OUR STRATEGIES AND, YOU KNOW, HOW

[01:05:01]

DO WE BALANCE, UM, RISK VERSUS COST VERSUS ALL THESE OTHER IMPACTS? AND SO THAT'LL BE SOMETHING, YOU KNOW, WE JUST WANNA HAVE THE, ALL THE POSSIBILITIES OUT THERE.

SO WE KNOW, YOU KNOW, KIND OF WHAT THE UNIVERSE OF FUTURES COULD BE.

AND THEN WE'LL HAVE TO BE VERY THOUGHTFUL ABOUT HOW WE CHOOSE TO PLAN FOR THAT, THAT, SO, AND I THINK WE HAVE ONE MORE SLIDE, EVEN IF WE COULD GO TO THE NEXT ONE, I'LL JUST GO THROUGH REAL FAST.

YEAH.

AND THEN BILL HAD A QUESTION, BUT MAYBE THIS SLIDE WILL ANSWER IT AND THEN HE CAN ASK HIS QUESTION.

WELL, SO SKIP AN AHEAD.

WELL, THIS IS JUST THREE QUICK POINTS ABOUT WHAT THE NEXT STEPS WILL BE.

UM, SO AS I MENTIONED, WE'RE CURRENTLY ON THE ENSEMBLING STAGE.

SO PACKAGING, THESE FLOWS THAT RICHARD WAS TALKING ABOUT, SO SUCH THAT WE'RE ABLE TO USE THEM IN THE WATER FORWARD, WHA TO TEST THOSE DIFFERENT STRATEGIES AND TO PERFORM THE VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS, UM, WE'LL ALSO BE DEVELOPING STOCHASTIC