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[00:00:07]

GET

[CALL TO ORDER]

STARTED HERE AND START THE, OH, THE AUSTIN INTEGRATED WATER RESOURCE PLANNING COMMUNITY TASK FORCE.

IT ROLLS OFF THE TONGUE.

ALL RIGHT.

I SHOULD HAVE SITUATED MY PAPERS BEFORE I GOT THIS PARTY STARTED.

OKAY.

SO, UM, OUR FIRST AGENDA ITEM

[APPROVAL OF MINUTES]

IS APPROVAL OF THE MEETING MINUTES FROM THE, OUR APRIL 11TH TASK FORCE MEETING.

I MAKE A MOTION TO, OOPS.

I MAKE A MOTION TO APPROVE.

WE HAVE A MOTION FROM ROBERT.

DO WE HAVE A SECOND? PERRY JUST JOINED ANYONE'S KEEPING TRACK.

WE'RE NOW ABOVE QUORUM.

WE'RE DOING REALLY GOOD.

OKAY.

UM, DO WE HAVE A SECOND? SECOND.

THANK.

OH, IS THAT PAUL? THANK YOU, PAUL.

YES.

YES.

PAUL, I HOPE YOU'RE NOT MISSING CLASS.

WAIT.

YOU TEASES OVER.

I KNOW THAT.

YEAH.

OKAY.

THANKS.

PLEASE.

A GOOD DAY.

ALL RIGHT.

GOOD.

GOOD.

YOUR MOM RIGHT THEN.

.

THAT'S NOT WHAT I MEANT.

, THANK YOU FOR BEING HERE, IS WHAT I MEANT TO SAY.

OKAY.

UM, ANY DISCUSSION? ALL IN FAVOR? AYE.

AYE.

ALL RIGHT.

IT'S UNANIMOUS.

OKAY, MOVING ON.

UM, OUR FIRST DISCUSSION, OH WAIT, DO WE HAVE ANY PUBLIC COMMUNICATION? I JUST ROLLED RIGHT PAST THAT.

NO, WE DON'T.

OKAY.

UM,

[2. Update on water supply conditions, presented by Austin Water staff]

OUR FIRST AGENDA ITEM IS UPDATE ON WATER SUPPLY CONDITIONS.

UM, I CAN CONFIRM THAT IT RAINED REALLY HARD AT MY HOUSE FOR APPROXIMATELY 30 SECONDS TODAY, SO WE SHOULD BE FINE.

UM, BUT YOU MIGHT HA UM, I BELIEVE MARISSA HAS A MORE IN DEPTH ANALYSIS.

AND FOR TODAY, WE HAVE A SPECIAL PRESENTER, HELEN GORILLA IS GONNA OH.

BE PROVIDING OUR OVERVIEW.

THAT'S THE VOLUME.

CAN EVERYBODY HEAR ME OKAY? YEP.

ALL RIGHT.

UH, NEXT SLIDE PLEASE.

OKAY.

SO JUST AS AN OVERVIEW TO ORIENT EVERYBODY TO OUR WATER SUPPLIES, UM, AS YOU GUYS PROBABLY ALREADY KNOW, WE HAVE, UM, ACCESS TO 325,000 ACRE FEET PER YEAR, UM, FROM A COMBINATION OF OUR CITY OF AUSTIN RUN OF RIVER WATER RIGHTS, UM, AS WELL AS A CONTRACT WITH THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER AUTHORITY, UM, THAT PROVIDES FIRM WATER BACKUP, UM, UP TO 325,000.

NEXT SLIDE, PLEASE.

SO THIS IS OUR KIND OF RUNNING INFLOW TABLE, UM, THAT SHOWS THE INFLOWS TO THE HIGHLAND LAKES, UM, OVER SEVERAL DIFFERENT PERIODS.

UM, THE TALLER BARS THERE SHOW AVERAGES, UM, FROM HIS, THE HISTORICAL PERIOD.

SO THE LIGHTER BLUE ONE IS FOR THE PERIOD OF RECORD, UM, THE HISTORICAL AVERAGE AND THE DARKER BLUE, BUT TALL BAR IS THE, UM, AVERAGE OVER THE MOST RECENT DROUGHT WE HAD, UM, FROM 2008 TO 2015.

AND THEN THE ONES THAT YOU CAN BARELY SEE AT THE BOTTOM ARE THE FLOWS THAT WE'VE HAD INTO THE HYMAN LAKES, UM, FOR THE LAST YEAR IN 2022 IN GREEN.

AND THEN SO FAR THIS YEAR IN 2023, UM, AND PURPLE.

SO AS YOU CAN SEE, UM, CONTINUING THE TREND OF VERY, VERY LOW INFLOWS, UM, FROM LAST YEAR, KIND OF THROUGH APRIL OF THIS YEAR.

UM, VERY LOW, SOMETIMES HISTORICALLY, UH, LOW INFLOWS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF MONTHS.

UM, SO YEAH, WITH, UH, YOU KNOW, 16 MONTHS NOW OF REALLY, REALLY LOW INFLOWS INTO THE HIGHLAND LAKES.

NEXT SLIDE, PLEASE.

AND YOU CAN SEE THAT EFFECT HERE ON THE STORAGE GRAFT.

UM, THE LAKE LEVELS ARE HOVERING JUST OVER A MILLION ACRE FEET OF COMBINED STORAGE RIGHT NOW, WHICH IS ABOUT 50% FULL, UM, IN TERMS OF THE TOTAL HIGHLAND LAKE STORAGE.

UM, AND WE HAVE ABOUT ANOTHER 100,000 ACRE FEET, UM, BEFORE WE WOULD BE ENTERING AUSTIN'S STAGE TWO DCP RESTRICTIONS.

NEXT SLIDE, PLEASE.

SO IN TERMS OF DROUGHT OVER TEXAS, UM, THE DROUGHT HAS BEEN PERSISTING, UM, IN WEST TEXAS AND IN CENTRAL TEXAS, BUT IT'S BEEN SLOWLY MOVING WESTWARD, UM, SUCH THAT PARTS OF TRAVIS COUNTY ARE NOW ONLY ABNORMALLY DRY, UM, INSTEAD OF IN THE MORE SEVERE DROUGHT STAGES.

UM, AND THE CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN IMPROVING OVER THE LAST MONTH, UM, COMPARED TO THE BEGINNING OF APRIL.

UM, WE'VE GOT LESS AREAS OF THE STATE, UM, IN SEVERE DROUGHT.

NEXT SLIDE, PLEASE.

AND SO WE ARE CURRENTLY IN INSO

[00:05:01]

NEUTRAL, UM, PER CURRENT CONDITIONS.

YAY.

SO WE TRANSITIONED OUT OF, UH, LA NINA AND INTO NEUTRAL, UM, WITH A PROBABILITY OF EL NINO DEVELOPING DURING THE MAY TO JULY TIMEFRAME, WHICH MEANS WE'RE EXPECTING SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES, UM, OVER THE NEXT FEW MONTHS, BUT HOPEFULLY NORMAL RAINFALL, UM, WHICH WOULD HOPEFULLY ALLOW US TO GET SOME RAIN IN THE PLACES WE NEED IT AND START BUILDING UP SOME ADDITIONAL SUPPLY, UM, IN OUR STORAGE LAKES.

NEXT SLIDE, PLEASE.

SO THIS IS THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER AUTHORITY, UM, STORAGE PROJECTION THAT THEY DO FOR THE HIGHLAND LAKES.

UM, JUST AS A REMINDER, ALL NON GARWOOD IRRIGATION IS CUT OFF, UM, FOR 2023.

UM, SO NO WATER IS BEING SENT DOWN FOR THOSE NON GARWOOD IRRIGATION RIGHTS, UH, WITH THOSE NEUTRAL AND POSSIBLY AINO CONDITIONS FORECASTED, YOU CAN SEE THAT, UM, REFLECTED HERE IN THE LAKE PROJECTIONS, UM, WHICH ARE MUCH MORE SLOWLY DECLINING IN THE SEVERE SCENARIOS AND MAY EVEN RECOVER SOME, UM, DEPENDING, YOU KNOW, IN THOSE, UH, GREEN AND BLUE LINES, DEPENDING ON WHAT WEATHER PATTERNS WE SEE OVER THE SUMMER AND THE FALL.

UM, ALTHOUGH WE HAVE BEEN TRENDING MORE TOWARDS THE, THE LOWER PROJECTIONS OVER THE LAST FEW MONTHS.

NEXT SLIDE PLEASE.

SO, UM, IN TERMS OF WHAT AUSTIN'S BEEN DOING, UM, WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DROUGHT SITUATION, UM, CONTINUE OUR IMPLEMENTATION OF OUR WATERFORD STRATEGIES, BOTH THE DEMAND MANAGEMENT ONE THAT ARE HELPING US CONSERVE WATER AND REDUCE DEMAND ON OUR POTABLE WATER SUPPLIES, AS WELL AS THOSE SUPPLY STRATEGIES, UM, THAT COULD BE USED DURING A DROUGHT.

UM, WE'VE ALSO BEEN PROMOTING OUR CONSERVATION PROGRAMS, UM, AND OUR DROUGHT CONTINGENCY PLAN STAGES, UM, AND DOING A LOT OF COMMUNICATION RELATED TO THAT.

NEXT SLIDE, PLEASE.

SO, WE'RE CURRENTLY IN STAGE ONE DCP, UM, AND THAT'S ON TOP OF OUR EVERYDAY CONSERVATION STAGE THAT WE'RE ALWAYS IN.

UM, AND OUR STAGE ONE DCP RESTRICTIONS, UH, LARGELY INCLUDE OR ARE MOSTLY BASED ON ADDITIONAL LIMITATIONS ON OUTDOOR IRRIGATION, UM, THE TIMES THAT YOU CAN DO THAT, UH, AND THEN ALSO LIMITATIONS ON SOME OF OUR OTHER OUTDOOR USES LIKE PATIO, MISTERS AND FOUNTAINS, THAT KIND OF THING.

NEXT SLIDE, PLEASE.

AND SO THE NEXT STAGE WOULD BE DCP STAGE TWO.

UM, AND THAT COULD BE ACTIVATED WHEN WE HIT 900,000 ACRE-FEET OF STORAGE IN THE HAIM LAKES, WHICH AGAIN, WE'RE AT JUST OVER A MILLION ACRE-FEET OF STORAGE RIGHT NOW.

AND DCP STAGE TWO WOULD BE LAYERING ON, AGAIN, ADDITIONAL IRRIGATION RESTRICTIONS FOR OUTDOOR IRRIGATION ON TOP OF THE STAGE ONE REQUIREMENTS, AND THEN ADDITIONAL LIMITATIONS ON OTHER OUTDOOR USES.

SO IN ADDITION TO LIKE THE MISTERS, WE'D BE LOOKING AT LARGER FOUNTAINS, GOLF COURSES, SOME TYPES OF CAR WASH, UM, THAT TYPE OF THING.

NEXT SLIDE PLEASE.

SO RIGHT NOW, UM, WE'RE PRETTY MUCH JUST CONTINUING TO TRACK THE DROUGHT, UM, BE REALLY AWARE OF THE INFLOWS AND THE, UM, PROJECTIONS FOR WHAT THE WEATHER IS LOOKING LIKE OVER THE NEXT FEW MONTHS, UM, BEEN EMPHASIZING TO OUR CUSTOMERS, UM, YOU KNOW, TO LOOK AT YOUR WATER USE SIGN UP FOR MY ATX, SO YOU'RE ABLE TO SEE THAT WATER USE, UM, IN MORE DETAIL, KNOW WHAT YOUR WATERING SCHEDULE IS SO YOU CAN TRACK THOSE DCP STAGE RESTRICTIONS.

UM, AND JUST, YOU KNOW, REALLY EMPHASIZING THE IMPORTANCE OF SAVING WATER, UM, WHILE WE'RE IN THIS DROUGHT.

AND I THINK WITH THAT, THAT'S THE END OF THAT UPDATE.

THANK YOU, HELEN.

DOES ANYONE HAVE ANY QUESTIONS ABOUT THE WATER SUPPLY UPDATE? ALL RIGHT.

OH, ROBERT, I'LL JUST JUST SAY THANK YOU FOR THE PRESENTATION.

I DO LOVE GETTING THESE UPDATES, SO TOTALLY.

YEAH, TOTALLY GEEKING OUT OVER HERE.

I'M TWEETING LIKE MAD, YOU'RE WONDERING WHAT I'M DOING, BUT, UH, THANK, THANKS AGAIN.

I DO APPRECIATE THOSE.

YOU'VE ALL BEEN WARNED, ROBERT IS NOT ONLY IS THIS MEETING BEING FILMED AND TELEVISED, BUT IT'S BEING TWEETED, SO, ALL RIGHT.

UM,

[3. Overview of Water Forward 2024 Disaggregated Demand Model, presented by Austin Water staff]

OKAY.

SO WE HAVE TWO PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL PRESENTATIONS TODAY.

UM, TALKING ABOUT TWO REALLY BIG KIND OF COMPONENTS OF OF OUR WATER FORWARD LOOKING, LOOKING FORWARD, OUR WATER FORWARD 24.

UM, AND SO ONE OF THEM IS GONNA BE ON THE DISAGGREGATED DEMAND MODEL.

I THINK THERE'S GONNA BE A LITTLE BACKGROUND ON THAT TOO FOR FOLKS THAT WEREN'T AROUND FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF IT THE FIRST TIME AROUND MM-HMM.

, AND THEN ALSO THE COLORADO RIVER LAND ANALYSIS, WHICH AGAIN, WE KIND OF TEASED THIS IN OUR FIRST WATERFORD PLAN

[00:10:01]

WATER FOR 18 AND, AND, UM, WITH PROMISES TO LOOK INTO IT DEEPER.

AND SO THAT IS WHAT WE'RE GONNA BE DOING.

SO, UH, SO GET READY FOLKS.

LOTS OF INFORMATION COMING AT YA FROM, UH, TWO FOLKS THAT CAN EXPLAIN IT WELL, AND WE'LL GET STARTED WITH THE OVERVIEW OF THE DISAGGREGATED DEMAND MODEL.

GREAT.

SO WE HAVE, UH, SEVERAL PRESENTERS HERE WITH US TODAY WHO ARE GONNA BE PROVIDING KEY PARTS OF THIS PRESENTATION.

UM, JACKIE RAMBO IS WITH OUR CONSERVATION DIVISION AND HAS BEEN DOING A LOT OF WORK, UM, ON THIS AND BRINGING OUR MODEL INTO THE, UM, THE NEW WATERFORD 2024 ITERATION.

AND MI MIGUEL MORALES IS WITH OUR SYSTEMS PLANNING DIVISION AND ENGINEER WHO'S BEEN, UM, HELPING A LOT WITH THE POPULATION PROJECTIONS AND INCLUDING THAT INFORMATION INTO OUR, UH, DE DESEGREGATED DEMAND MODEL.

UM, SO IF WE COULD BRING UP THE SLIDES.

SORRY TO CATCH YOU THERE.

SO, LIKE JENNIFER MENTIONED, THIS IS A, A KEY PART OF OUR PLANNING PROCESS.

WE, UH, TO BE ABLE TO IDENTIFY WHAT STRATEGIES WE'RE GONNA USE IN THE FUTURE, WE HAVE TO KNOW WHAT OUR FUTURE, UH, DEMANDS ARE.

AND A KEY PART OF HOW WE'RE DOING THAT DIFFERENTLY IN THIS PROCESS IS THAT WE ARE CREATING RANGES OF DEMANDS THAT ARE UTILIZING THOSE RANGES OF POPULATION THAT WE PRESENTED BACK IN DECEMBER.

SO YOU'LL SEE A LITTLE BIT MORE ABOUT THAT IN THIS PRESENTATION IF YOU MOVE TO THE NEXT SLIDE.

GREAT.

SO THIS, UM, PRESENTATION, UH, WILL FOCUS ON OUR APPROACH TO ADDRESSING UNCERTAINTY AND USING AN ADAPTIVE PLANNING PROCESS.

WE'LL TALK ABOUT HOW WE ARE DEVELOPING OUR DEMANDS, AND THEN WE'LL DISCUSS HOW THIS IS DIFFERENT AND WHAT PROCESS IMPROVEMENTS WE'VE MADE FROM THE WATER FORWARD 2018 PLAN.

AND THEN WE'LL GIVE A LITTLE, UH, UH, SNEAK PEEK ON NEXT STEPS THAT WE ARE ANTICIPATING IN UPCOMING TASKS.

THIS IS MORE OF A BACKGROUND AND OVERVIEW PRESENTATION THAT'S GONNA GIVE A LITTLE BIT OF INSIGHT TO THE MODEL THAT WE USE TO DEVELOP DEMAND PROJECTIONS MOVING FORWARD, HOW WE INCORPORATE THOSE POPULATION UNEMPLOYMENT, UH, PROJECTIONS, AND THEN HOW THAT WILL, UM, UH, FACTOR INTO THE REST OF OUR PLANNING PROCESS AND HELPING US TO IDENTIFY FUTURE NEEDS WHEN COMPARED TO OUR, UM, UH, PROJECTED SUPPLIES AS WELL AS, UM, FUTURE STRATEGIES, OPPORTUNITIES FOR CONSERVATION, REUSE, AND, UM, AND OTHER STRATEGIES.

SO I THINK AT THIS POINT, I TURN IT OVER TO MIGUEL, WHO COULD MAYBE INTRODUCE HIMSELF.

THANK YOU, MARISA.

HELLO.

HI.

CAN YOU ALL HEAR ME CLOSER? CLOSER.

IS THAT GOOD? OKAY.

IT'S INTERESTING.

UM, SO NEXT SLIDE, PLEASE.

MIGUEL MORALES.

I'M, I'VE BEEN WITH THE CITY OF AUSTIN FOR, UM, ABOUT FOUR YEARS NOW.

UH, AND BEFORE THAT, UM, I SPENT A LONG TIME AT THE UNIVERSITY OF OF FLORIDA DOING, UH, RESEARCH ON WATER RESOURCES PLANNING AND, UM, WATER DEMAND SAVINGS.

SO I FEEL RIGHT AT HOME HERE.

UH, SO WITH THIS, WITH THIS WATER FORWARD UPDATE, WE'RE REALLY TRYING TO DO A BETTER JOB OF, UH, INCORPORATING UNCERTAINTY.

UM, SO, AND OBVIOUSLY THE FUTURE IS UNCERTAIN AND A HUNDRED YEARS FROM NOW IS EVEN, IS EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN.

UH, SO WE WANT TO MAKE SURE THAT WE'RE INCORPORATING AS MANY, UH, POSSIBLE FUTURE SCENARIOS AS POSSIBLE SO THAT WE'RE, UM, SO THAT OUR PLAN AND OUR STRATEGIES ARE, ARE, ARE BEST ABLE TO ADEQUATELY ADDRESS, UM, AS MANY OF THESE FUTURE SCENARIOS AS POSSIBLE.

UH, KEEPING IN MIND THAT WE DO HAVE, UH, THIS IS AN ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT PLAN.

SO WE DO HAVE THESE CHECK-INS, THESE UPDATES THAT HAPPEN EVERY FIVE YEARS WHERE WE CAN, UH, TAKE IN NEW INFORMATION AND, UM, YOU KNOW, MAKE ANY CHANGES THAT, UH, APPEAR NECESSARY.

NEXT SLIDE.

SO AGAIN, UM, YOU KNOW, A HUNDRED YEARS IS A LONG TIME AND IT'S, IT'S OBVIOUSLY VERY UNCERTAIN WHAT'S GONNA HAPPEN A HUNDRED YEARS FROM NOW.

UM, SO WHY EVEN TRY TO DO A HUNDRED YEARS PLAN OF WATER RESOURCES? UH, WE, WE FEEL THAT, UM, IT'S STILL A, A VERY USEFUL EXERCISE TO HAVE A, A LONG RANGE VIEW OF WATER RESOURCES PLANNING.

UM, MANY OF THESE STRATEGIES IN PARTICULAR, THE SUPPLY MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES WILL TAKE DECADES TO

[00:15:01]

PLAN, UH, DESIGN AND BUILD.

SO WE REALLY NEED TO KIND OF GET AHEAD OF THE CURVE THERE AND HAVE A LONG-TERM VISION.

AND WE DO HAVE THESE FIVE YEAR UPDATES WHERE WE'RE ABLE TO INCORPORATE NEW INFORMATION, UM, NEW METHODOLOGIES, NEW IMPROVEMENTS, SOME OF WHICH WE'RE GONNA, UH, TALK ABOUT TODAY TO KIND OF COURSE CORRECT AS WE GO.

UM, AND, UH, ADAPT OR TAILOR THE PLAN, UM, AS NEW INFORMATION BECOMES AVAILABLE.

NEXT SLIDE.

SO, THE DESEGREGATED DEMAND MODEL, UM, IT'S THE SAME MODEL THAT WE USED IN THE LAST WATER FORWARD PLAN, UM, THAT WE HAVE MADE SOME IMPROVEMENTS TO THE MODEL.

UH, THIS MODEL WAS DEVELOPED INTERNALLY AND, UH, AT ITS CORE, IT'S A, IT'S A VERY SIMPLE MODEL.

UM, GENERALLY THERE'S KIND OF THREE COMPONENTS.

THERE'S, UM, OUR MEASURES OF SIZE.

SO, UM, BY AND LARGE, THE POPULATION IS THE LARGEST DRIVER OF WATER USE.

SO OUR POPULATION PROJECTION IS OUR PREDOMINANT MEASURE OF SIZE.

THEN WE HAVE OUR ANALYSIS OF WATER USE.

UM, SO THIS IS TAKING, UM, YOU KNOW, HISTORICAL DATA ON HOW OUR CUSTOMERS USE WATER, AND THEN NORMALIZING THIS DATA BY OUR MEASURES OF SIZE SO THAT THEN WE CAN COMBINE THOSE TWO OUR, OUR WATER USE FACTORS OR NORMALIZED WATER USE, UH, AND OUR PROJECTIONS OF, UH, POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT TO GET OUR AT OUR DEMAND PROJECTIONS.

NEXT SLIDE.

SO, UH, THE NEXT FEW SLIDES, WE'LL GO INTO A LITTLE BIT MORE DETAIL ABOUT THESE, UH, THREE COMPONENTS.

UM, SO EVEN THOUGH THE, THE DESEGREGATED DEMAND MODEL, THE METHODOLOGY SEEMS, UM, FAIRLY SIMPLE, UH, THE REAL, UH, STRENGTH OF THE MODEL AND, UM, THE REAL COMPLEXITY COMES INTO, UH, THE DESEGREGATION PART.

SO WE DESEGREGATE THE DEMAND, UM, BOTH SPATIALLY AND ACROSS WATER USE SECTORS.

SO SPATIALLY WE HAVE, UH, 235 POLYGONS.

THESE ARE WHAT WE TERM THE D T I POLYGONS.

UH, AND THESE POLYGONS ARE ANALOGOUS TO, UH, CENSUS TRACTS.

AND WE COME UP WITH THESE WATER USE RELATIONSHIPS, THESE, UH, WATER USE FACTORS.

WE ALSO COME UP WITH OUR POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS AT THIS SPATIAL SCALE SO THAT WE HAVE AN UNDERSTANDING OF NOT ONLY HOW, YOU KNOW, OUR WATER DEMAND PRODUCTION IS LOOKING, BUT WHERE THAT DEMAND PRODUCTION IS IS HAPPENING.

UM, AND THEN WE ALSO HAVE OUR DISAGGREGATION DOWN TO THE WATER USE SECTORS.

SO WE'RE NOT JUST LOOKING AT HOW OUR, HOW OUR UTILITY USES WATER OVERALL, HOW ALL OF OUR CUSTOMERS USE WATER, BUT, UM, BREAKING IT DOWN TO HOW THIS WATER'S BEING USED.

SO BREAKING IT INTO, UM, ON THE RESIDENTIAL SIDE, SINGLE FAMILY, MULTI-FAMILY RESIDENTIAL SECTORS, AND ON THE NON-RESIDENTIAL SIDE, DOWN TO ABOUT 12 SECTORS OR SO OF, YOU KNOW, UM, SCHOOLS, HOSPITALS, UM, INDUSTRIAL CUSTOMERS.

SO THE REAL POWER COMES IN THIS DISAGGREGATION OF OF DEMAND.

NEXT SLIDE.

SURE.

MAY I ASK A QUESTION REAL QUICK JUST TO MAKE SURE THAT WE'RE ALL ON THE SAME PAGE AND UNDERSTAND.

SO, SO THE DISAGGREGATION PART AND THE BREAKING THE CITY UP INTO THESE DIFFERENT SUB-SECTORS, AND YOU SAID IT FOLLOWS THE CENSUS TRACKS.

AND THEN I GUESS MAYBE THERE'S SOME KIND OF FURTHER SUBDIVISION IN THOSE AS WELL, AND YOU'RE LOOKING AT, AT, UM, AND KIND OF HOW WATER IS USED OR MAYBE THE TYPES OF HOMES AND BUSINESSES IN THOSE AREAS, HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED WATER USE, AND THEN MAYBE POPULATION DENSITY, SOME OTHER THINGS.

I'M GETTING REAL OUT ON A LIMB HERE CUZ THIS IS NOT WHAT MY EXPERTISE, BUT, UM, SO ALL OF THOSE THINGS BRINGS UP LIKE A UNIQUE KIND OF TAILORED TO THAT AREA AND ALL THOSE FACTORS, WATER USE THAT YOU CAN THEN DO SOME FUTURE PROJECTIONS FOR THAT.

RIGHT.

AND THAT, SO THAT GIVES US A REALLY MORE KIND OF FINE TOOTH.

UM, LOOK AT THAT.

AND FOR EXAMPLE, LIKE WEST AUSTIN AND EAST AUSTIN OR A HUGE INDUSTRIAL INDUSTRIAL AREA VERSUS LAR LOTS OF CLUSTERED MULTI-FAMILY.

LIKE YOU SEE DIFFERENT WATER USE FACTORS IN THOSE.

OKAY.

YEAH.

YEAH.

UM, THAT'S ENTIRELY RIGHT.

UM, REALLY IT COMES DOWN TO UNDERSTANDING HOW OUR CUSTOMERS USE WATER,

[00:20:01]

UM, GOING DOWN ALL THE WAY TO THE END USE LEVEL.

SO THAT'S ANOTHER LEVEL OF DISAGGREGATION THAT WE DO, UM, TO, TO, TO FIGURE OUT EXACTLY, UM, HOW OUR CUSTOMERS USE WATER SO WE CAN BETTER PROJECT HOW THEY'RE LIKELY TO USE WATER INTO THE FUTURE.

AND ALSO, UM, BETTER UNDERSTAND HOW OUR STRATEGIES ARE GONNA PERFORM IN MM-HMM.

REDUCING THOSE CUSTOMER DEMANDS.

AND AS THE CITY MOVES INTO AMI AND WE GO INTO LIKE OUR NEXT ITERATION OF THIS, IT'LL BE EVEN MORE REFINED, I WOULD SUSPECT A YES.

YES.

IT COULD BE, YEAH.

A LOT MORE REFINED BECAUSE WE'LL BE GOING FROM, UM, MONTHLY, UH, METER READS TO, UM, HOURLY METER READS MM-HMM.

.

SO WE'LL BE ABLE TO DO, UM, A BETTER JOB OF DISAGGREGATING THOSE END USES.

OKAY.

AND PARTICULARLY THE INDOOR AND OUTDOOR COMPONENTS.

MM-HMM.

.

MM-HMM.

.

OKAY.

THANK YOU.

SURE.

SORRY TO INTERRUPT YOUR FLOW.

YEAH.

UM, NEXT SLIDE PLEASE.

SO, UH, TO, UM, KIND OF DIG INTO THESE THREE COMPONENTS A LITTLE BIT FURTHER.

UM, THE FIRST ONE IS OUR, OUR POPULATION PROJECTION, OUR POPULATION BEING THE LARGEST DRIVER OF WATER DEMAND.

SO THESE ARE OUR UPDATED POPULATION PROJECTIONS.

UM, SO IT'S A LITTLE DIFFICULT TO SEE, BUT THE, BUT THE, THE PURPLE LINE IS OUR WATER FORWARD 18 POPULATION PROJECTION.

AND THEN, UM, GOING ALONG WITH OUR INCORPORATION OF UNCERTAINTY AND TRYING TO INCORPORATE, UH, MORE RANGES OF POSSIBLE OUTCOMES.

WE HAVE THREE POPULATION PROJECTIONS, UH, THAT WE PUT TOGETHER IN COORDINATION WITH THE CITY DEMOGRAPHER.

SO OVERALL, OUR, OUR QUOTE UNQUOTE AVERAGE POPULATION PRODUCTION IS A LITTLE BIT LOWER THAN OUR WATER FORWARD 18 POPULATION PROJECTION.

UM, BUT WE DO HAVE, UM, THAT, THAT, THAT HIGHER GROWTH POPULATION PRODUCTION LINE DOES MATCH UP, UH, FAIRLY CLOSELY WITH THE WATER FORWARD 18 POPULATION PRODUCTION.

SO, UM, SO WHAT'S, WHAT WAS THE MAIN DRIVER FOR CAUSING THAT DIFFERENCE FOR, FOR THIS AVERAGE? UH, PRESUMABLY THE, THE ONE FROM THE OLD PREVIOUS PLAN OR THE CURRENT PLAN IS, IS PROBABLY AN AVERAGE AS WELL.

SO IT'S, THERE'S AN 800,000 AUSTINITE DIFFERENCE THERE.

UM, SO WHAT, WHAT'S THE MAIN DRIVER FOR THAT CHANGE? DID YOU, YEAH.

SO, UM, WITH OUR NEW, UH, THE TRANSITION TO A NEW CITY DEMOGRAPHER, OUR NEW CITY DEMOGRAPHER, LILA VALENCIA HAS A KIND OF A DIFFERENT, UH, APPROACH TO DEVELOPING PROJECTIONS.

AND WHILE SHE, UM, PROVIDED KIND OF PRIMARILY IN GUIDANCE AND, AND FEEDBACK ON THESE PROJECTIONS, SHE RECOMMENDED THAT, UM, WE TEND TO TAILOR OFF THE, THE GROWTH RATE RATHER THAN KEEPING THE GROWTH RATE.

UM, THE SAME IN THE LATER OUT PLANNING HORIZONS AS WE GOT OUT BEYOND 2070 TO, UH, OR 2080 NOW TO 2120.

UM, AND THE RATIONALE THERE WAS THAT AS AUSTIN KIND OF GROWS INTO OUR, UM, FULL PURPOSE AND, AND LIMITED PURPOSE, UH, UH, CITY LIMITS AND GROWS INTO, ULTIMATELY FOR US, OUR, OUR OUR IMPACT FEE BOUNDARY, WHICH WE'RE USING AS OUR ULTIMATE SERVICE AREA, UM, THEN THAT GROWTH, UM, WILL NOT INCLUDE AS MUCH AT GREENFIELD DEVELOPMENT.

UM, IT'LL INCLUDE SOME DENSIFICATION, BUT WE'LL SEE, WE, WE WON'T SEE US, UH, KIND OF HAVING THAT FAST GROWTH FROM NOTHING TO SOMETHING WE'LL SEE US BEGINNING TO DENSIFY AND, AND REDEVELOP.

AND THAT'LL HAPPEN AT A LITTLE BIT SLOWER PACE.

SO, UM, IN THE LAST, IN THE WATER FORWARD 18 PLAN FROM 2070, I THINK TO 2115, THE GROWTH RATES WERE HELD CONSTANT.

AND SO THAT'S WHY YOU SEE KIND OF IN THE, IN THE CUMULATIVE POPULATION PROJECTION, THAT PURPLE LINE SEEMS LIKE IT'S GOING UP A LITTLE BIT FASTER, BUT IT'S JUST THAT THE GROWTH RATE WAS HELD CONSTANT AND THAT CONSTANT GROWTH RATE IS BEING APPLIED TO A POPULATION THAT'S INCREASING OVER TIME IN THIS, UM, ITERATION OF THE POPULATION PROJECTIONS, OUR GROWTH RATES ARE DECLINING SOMEWHAT.

UM, AND SO THAT'S WHY YOU SEE KIND OF A LEVELING OUT, UM, IN THE POPULATION OUT AND TOWARDS THE FUTURE YEARS.

NOW, THE RANGE OF POPULATION, UM, PROJECTIONS BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE HIGH THAT WE INCLUDED WAS TO TRY TO GET SOME SORT OF MEANINGFUL DIFFERENTIATION, UM, BETWEEN OUR, OUR POP PROJECTIONS AND ULTIMATELY OUR DEMAND PROJECTIONS.

I GUESS ANOTHER QUESTION SINCE I'VE BEEN THINKING ABOUT THIS IS, UM, YOU KNOW, DEPENDING ON WHAT THE CLIMATE FUTURE LOOKS LIKE, THERE COULD BE A FEEDBACK ON THE POPULATION NUMBERS.

LIKE IF IT BECOMES UNBEARABLY HOT TO LIVE HERE MM-HMM.

THAT COULD HAVE, UH, THAT COULD HAVE AN IMPACT.

UM, IS THAT, IS THAT CONSIDERED AT ALL?

[00:25:01]

I THINK, YOU KNOW, WHILE IT'S NOT EXPLICIT WITHIN OUR PROJECTIONS, US TRYING TO USE A RANGE IS ACKNOWLEDGING, UM, SOME OF THOSE UNCERTAINTIES.

IF IT BECOMES UNBEARABLY HOT, MAYBE FOOC, IT'S, THIS BECOMES A LESS, UH, ATTRACTIVE PLACE FOR IN MIGRATION.

UM, BUT AS WELL, THERE'LL BE OTHER IMPACTS IN OTHER AREAS.

SO FOLKS MAY STILL BE TRYING TO MOVE TO AUSTIN, UM, IF THERE ARE MORE EXTREME FLOODING EVENTS, FOR EXAMPLE, IN COASTAL REGIONS.

GOOD POINT.

.

YEAH, SO WE'RE, WE'RE, WE'RE CERTAINLY TRYING TO INCORPORATE MORE OF A RANGE OF POSSIBLE FUTURE, UH, POPULATION GROWTH.

UM, AND FOR THE FIRST 80 YEARS AT LEAST, UM, THE, OUR, OUR HIGH PROJECTION DOES MATCH UP, UM, FAIRLY CLOSELY WITH THE WATER FORWARD 18.

SO WE'LL STILL ESSENTIALLY BE ABLE TO KIND OF TRACK THAT KIND OF GROWTH CURVE UP UNTIL ABOUT ABOUT 80 YEARS FROM NOW.

AND AGAIN, WE'LL BE, WE'LL BE REFINING THESE NUMBERS, UM, UPDATING THEM ON, ON THE FIVE YEAR CYCLE.

HOLD ON ONE SECOND, MIGUEL.

I CAN'T SEE THE OTHER TASK FORCE MEMBERS THAT ARE ONLINE.

SO IF YOU ALL HAVE A QUESTION, YOU MAY NEED TO JUST PIPE UP.

CAUSE I DON'T WANNA MISS SOMETHING.

IF YOU DO HAVE A QUESTION, I'M ONLY SEEING THE SLIDE AND NOT YOUR FACES ON THE SCREEN RIGHT NOW.

JUST FYI.

I DO HAVE A QUESTION ACTUALLY, UM, JUST WHILE WE'RE ON THIS, UH, POINT, CAN Y'ALL HEAR ME? JENNIFER? THIS IS PAUL.

YEAH, WE CAN HEAR YOU, PAUL.

OKAY, GREAT.

UM, WELL, WHEN MARISSA WAS MENTIONING, UM, SORT OF HOW THE, THE NEW DEMOGRAPHER HAS APPROACHED PLANNING FOR THE FUTURE, UM, IN AND AROUND AUSTIN, I WAS KIND OF PICTURING THE, THE SORT OF SERVICE AREA MAP FOR AUSTIN WATER.

AND I GUESS, TELL ME IF I'M WRONG, IF THIS IS, THIS IS A, A LAYMAN'S UNDERSTANDING OF HOW THIS MIGHT WORK, BUT YOU GUYS, IN A SENSE OF SORT OF MAPPED OUT, LIKE IN THE GREATER AUSTIN AREA, UM, WHERE YOU THINK CERTAIN AREAS WILL DEVELOP DENSIFY, WHAT'S GONNA GO WHERE, SORT OF, SO DO, DO YOU HAVE SOME IDEA OR SOME, I MEAN, WITHIN A RANGE YOU'RE LIKE, HERE'S GONNA, THERE'S GONNA BE A MIXED USE DEVELOPMENT, YOU KNOW, FIVE MILES TO THE EAST, UH, AND THERE'S GONNA BE ACTUALLY LIKE A NEW SAMSUNG FACTORY.

I'M MAKING THAT UP, SOME KIND OF FACTORY OVER HERE.

THERE'S A MAJOR INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT THAT'S GONNA REQUIRE X AMOUNT OF WATER.

UM, IS, DO YOU, IF YOU HAVE LIKE A, A, A KIND OF A MAP LIKE THAT? OR IS THAT NOT HOW IT WORKS? THAT'S NOT QUITE HOW IT WORKS IN THAT WE DON'T HAVE, UM, PROJECTIONS OR ESTIMATES OF LAND USE CHANGE FOR PARTICULAR PARCELS.

UM, AND WE HAVEN'T LOCATED, YOU KNOW, ON, IN A, IN A VERY GRANULAR SENSE, KIND OF THE LOCATION OF NEW INDUSTRIES.

UM, WE USE THESE, THOSE DTI POLYGONS THAT I THINK WE'VE TALKED ABOUT BEFORE.

AND WE HAVE A KIND OF A HIGH LEVEL MAP, UM, OF THAT, UH, ON ONE OF THE SUBSEQUENT SLIDES WITHIN THIS PRESENTATION.

IT DOESN'T SHOW THE DTI POLYGONS IN A LOT OF, UH, WITH OUTLINES, BUT THEY'RE, UM, ABOUT THE SIZE OF CENSUS TRACTS.

AND SO OUR PROJECTIONS FOR POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT ARE GENERATED AT THAT LEVEL OF GEOGRAPHY.

SO FOR, IF YOU CAN IMAGINE THE SIZE OF A CENSUS TRACT IS, GOSH, I MEAN, IT VARIES ACROSS THE CITY, BUT IT WE'RE TALKING LIKE BROADER THAN NEIGHBORHOOD SCALE LEVEL OF GEOGRAPHIES TO CREATE, UM, UH, UH, KIND OF ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT POTENTIAL GROWTH BASED ON HISTORICAL GROWTH, BASED ON, UM, UH, WHAT KIND OF, UH, DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITY WE'RE SEEING THERE IN TERMS OF SERVICE EXTENSION REQUESTS OR, UM, UH, UH, OTHER DEVELOPMENT INFORMATION.

AND THEN JUST KIND OF KNOWN, UH, KNOWN DEVELOPMENTS THAT MAY BE COMING INTO A PARTICULAR AREA, WHICH A LOT OF THAT IS CAPTURED THROUGH, LIKE SITE PLAN, SUBDIVISION PLANS, THINGS LIKE THAT.

OH, AND THE ANOTHER FACTOR INTO THAT IS OUR IMAGINE AUSTIN COMPREHENSIVE PLAN.

SO THAT IS, UM, WAS DEVELOPED AN APPROVED IN 2012.

IT'S, YOU KNOW, A A A LITTLE MATURE AT THIS POINT IN TIME.

UM, BUT WE DO, UH, OVERLAY OUR CORRIDORS AND CENTERS, GROWTH CENTERS, UM, THAT THE CITY HAS IDENTIFIED AS A PART OF THAT COMPREHENSIVE PLANNING PROCESS.

GREAT.

THANK YOU.

THAT'S REALLY HELPFUL.

SORRY, THESE ARE SORT OF ELEMENTARY QUESTIONS.

WE'RE JUST TRYING TO GET A PICTURE IN MY HEAD.

NOT AT ALL.

THIS IS, THAT'S EXACTLY WHAT THIS PRESENTATION IS FOR, JUST TO GET US ALL ORIENTED TO HOW WE'RE DOING THIS WORK.

SO YES, PLEASE FEEL FREE TO, UM, PIPE UP IF ANYBODY HAS ANY MORE QUESTIONS.

SO I DO HAVE A QUESTION ABOUT THAT.

THIS IS SARAH, CAN YOU HEAR ME? YES, YES, SARAH.

OKAY, THANKS.

YEAH, JUST ON THAT LAST POINT YOU MENTIONED, IMAGINE AUSTIN AND I DON'T HAVE A GREAT UNDERSTANDING, BUT I MEAN, WE DO, I

[00:30:01]

KNOW WE HAVE FUTURE LAND USE MAPS AND THERE'S SOME THINGS THAT THE CITY HAS BEEN WORKING ON RIGHT NOW THAT ARE, UM, ABOUT INCREASING DENSITY IN CERTAIN AREAS.

SO COULD YOU TALK A LITTLE BIT ABOUT, A LITTLE BIT MORE ABOUT HOW YOU USE THE, THE FUTURE LAND USE MAPS THAT WE DO HAVE AND THE AREAS THAT ARE IDENTIFIED FOR CERTAIN TYPES OF DEVELOPMENT AND HOW THAT OVERLAYS WITH THIS DEMAND PROJECTION? YEAH, SO THE PLUMS, THE FUTURE LAND USE MAPS ARE GENERATED FOR, UH, ONLY A PORTION OF THE CITY.

UM, SOMETIMES THOSE ARE FOR PARTICULAR NEIGHBORHOODS.

UM, AND IN A KIND OF COLLABORATION WITH THE, UM, UH, NEIGHBORHOOD ASSOCIATIONS AND, AND NEIGHBORHOOD PLANNING GROUPS.

UM, PRIOR, I WAS GONNA SAY THERE WAS A LOT MORE ACTIVITY ON THE FLUBS AND KEEPING THOSE FLUBS UPDATED IN THE TEENS, THE 20 TEENS.

AND, UM, SINCE THAT TIME THERE HAS BEEN KIND OF LESS ACTIVITY IN THAT AREA.

SO THERE A L UH, HAVE A LITTLE BIT OF A, AN OLDER FLAVOR IN SOME CASES.

UM, WE HAVE TRIED TO, UM, YOU KNOW, THROUGH BUY INCORPORATING THE, UM, IMAGINE AUSTIN COMPREHENSIVE, UH, PLAN.

WE'VE BEEN TRYING TO KIND OF REFLECT THAT EXPECTATION FOR BROADER GROWTH.

UM, THE FLUS, UH, WE HAVEN'T NECESSARILY INCLUDED, UH, MORE GRANULAR ASSUMPTIONS FROM THE FLUS JUST BECAUSE, LIKE OUR PLANNING HORIZONS TEND TO GO OUT A LITTLE BIT FURTHER.

AND WE'RE DOING THE PLANNING AT A, AT A MORE, UH, UH, UH, KIND OF A LARGER GEOGRAPHY.

SO LIKE OUR FIRST, UM, PLANNING HORIZON IS 2040.

UM, YOU KNOW, WE'RE GOING FROM 2020 TO 2040 AND THEN 2080 AND, UH, 2120.

AND SOME OF THOSE, UH, THINGS THAT ARE MORE RELATED TO LIKE LAND USE, UM, AND ZONING OUR, UH, FOR A NEAR TIME STEP, UM, PLANNING HORIZON.

OKAY.

AND SO WOULD YOU CHARACTERIZE THERE AS VERY MUCH, WOULD YOU SAY THAT THERE'S VERY MUCH INTEGRATION BETWEEN THIS TYPE OF PLANNING AND OUR LAND USE PLANNING? OR IS IT THAT, UM, THE DEMAND PROJECTION IS LONGER, LONGER RANGE, BUT SOMEWHAT REACTIVE? AND DO WE, AS A CITY, IS THERE ANY SORT OF INTEGRATION OF THIS IN OUR LAND USE PLANNING? UM, SO I WOULD SAY THAT OUR, UH, APPROACH TO PLANNING IS TO TRY TO PLAN FOR WHAT WE EXPECT, UH, YOU KNOW, KIND OF OUR BEST EXPECTATION OF WHAT IS COMING DOWN THE PIPE BASED ON TRENDS, BASED ON THE CITY'S COMPREHENSIVE PLAN.

IMAGINE AUSTIN.

UM, AND BASED ON, UH, YOU KNOW, OUR, UH, HISTORICAL GROWTH FROM LIKE, UH, KEY, UH, CENSUS YEARS, UM, WE DON'T NECESSARILY, LIKE IN TERMS OF INTEGRATION, IF YOU'RE KIND OF THINKING OR, UM, IF YOU ARE ASKING WHETHER OR NOT, YOU KNOW, LIKE OUR ESTIMATES OF DEMAND ARE INTEGRATED INTO OUR DECISION MAKING PROCESS ABOUT FUTURE LAND USE, THAT'S NOT, WE DON'T NECESSARILY DO THAT.

I GUESS IN THAT SENSE YOU WOULD TERM IT AS US BEING A LITTLE BIT MORE KIND OF REACTIVE, ALTHOUGH WE ARE TRYING TO BE PROACTIVE IN PLANNING FOR WHAT WE THINK MAY BE COMING DOWN THE PIKE.

OKAY.

THANK YOU.

THAT'S HELPFUL.

THANK YOU.

RIGHT, AND UM, I THINK I'D LIKE TO ADD THAT WE DO HAVE THIS, THESE POPULATION PROJECTIONS THAT, UM, YOU KNOW, HAPPEN KIND OF AT THE MACRO SCALE WHERE WE THINK THE, LIKE THE SERVICE POPULATION IS HEADED, UM, BUT THROUGH OUR DELPHI PROCESS WHERE WE PUT A, A BUNCH OF, UH, AS MANY EXPERTS AS WE CAN IN THE ROOM TO TRY TO, UM, DESEGREGATE THAT, WHERE THAT, WHERE THAT POPULATION PROJECTION, UM, IS GONNA HAPPEN.

SO WHERE THAT GROWTH IS GONNA HAPPEN.

AND, AND THAT OCCURS AT THE, AT THE DTI LEVEL.

AND THAT INCORPORATES, UM, ALL SORTS OF FACTORS INCLUDING, UM, YOU KNOW, NON DEVELOPABLE AREAS IN, UM, IN A PARTICULAR DTI, UM, YOU KNOW, UM, S SCR, R REQUESTS, UM, CURRENT, UM, BUILD OUT TYPES, UM, ALL SORTS OF, ALL SORTS OF GOOD STUFF.

I'M GONNA DO A QUICK MIC CHECK FOR TODD, BART TODD, UM, WE CAN, UM, WE SEE YOU AS A PARTICIPANT ON THE WEBEX.

CAN YOU HEAR ME? YES, WE CAN.

WE GOT YOU NOW.

OKAY, LET'S KEEP GOING.

OKAY, NEXT SLIDE.

SO GOING, UH, GOING BACK TO OUR DISAGGREGATION AND A LITTLE BIT ABOUT, UM,

[00:35:02]

MODEL IMPROVEMENTS, UH, THIS IS, UM, AN IMPROVEMENT THAT WE'VE, UH, CARRIED OUT WITH THIS, UM, IMPLEMENTATION OF THE WATER FORWARD PLAN IS THAT OUR POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT ESTIMATES, UM, ARE AT, ARE HAPPENING AT THE PARCEL LEVEL WHERE BEFORE WE WERE ESTIMATING, UM, POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT AT THE DTI LEVEL.

SO, UM, A A A A NICE ASPECT OF THIS IS THAT WE'RE ABLE TO AGGREGATE UP DEMAND TO VARIOUS SPACIAL SCALES.

SO IN THE CASE OF THE WATER FORWARD PLAN, IT'LL BE THE, UM, THE DTIS OBVIOUSLY, BUT, UH, THIS IS ALSO USEFUL FOR OTHER PLANNING PURPOSES.

LIKE, FOR EXAMPLE, UH, WITH THE IMPACT FEE UPDATE, WE AGGREGATED UP OUR, OUR POPULATION, UH, USING THE SAME DATA SET, UH, DOWN TO THE PRESSURE ZONES FOR WATER AND THE SUB CATCHMENTS FOR WASTEWATER.

AND, UM, THIS DATA SET WAS PUT TOGETHER, UM, FROM VARIOUS DATA SOURCES, UH, INCLUDING THE HOUSING AND PLANNING LAND USE DATABASE.

UH, THE CITY OF AUSTIN ADDRESSES DATABASE, UM, OUR OWN WATER BILLING DATABASE AT AUSTIN WATER AND AUSTIN ENTITIES, UH, METER ACCOUNT DATA.

SO TRY TO BETTER UNDERSTAND, UH, WHERE OUR, OUR POPULATION IS AND IN WHAT KIND OF HOUSING IT IS IN TERMS OF SINGLE FAMILY AND MULTI-FAMILY.

NEXT SLIDE.

AND THEN THIS ALSO GETS AT OUR DISAGGREGATION A LITTLE BIT.

SO THIS ACTUALLY SHOWS, UM, A LITTLE BIT ABOUT HOW OUR, UH, DTI POLYGONS OUR CENSUS TRACK POLYGONS, UM, YOU KNOW, COME TOGETHER THE LEVEL OF DESEGREGATION THAT WE HAVE THERE.

UH, AND IT ALSO EXPLAINS A LITTLE BIT OF WHY WE FEEL THAT THAT, UM, POPULATION GROWTH IS GONNA TAPER OUT A LITTLE BIT COMPARED TO, UH, WHERE IT WAS IN WATER FORWARD 18.

SO THESE TOP FIGURES HERE, THEY SHOW POPULATION PER ACRE, AND THE YELLOW REALLY SHOWS KIND OF OUR, OUR URBAN CORE.

SO ON THE FAR LEFT, YOU HAVE OUR, OUR 2020 URBAN CORE REALLY KIND OF, UM, LIMITED MORE SO TO DOWNTOWN, A LITTLE BIT NORTH OF THE RIVER.

AND THEN YOU SEE HOW THAT URBAN CORE EXPANDS AS AS TIME GOES ON.

SO WE FEEL THAT, UM, THERE'S GONNA BE LESS EASILY DEVELOPABLE LAND, UM, AS WE GO FORWARD.

AND THAT'S WHY OUR, OUR POPULATION WILL, WILL KIND OF TAPER OUT A LITTLE BIT.

NEXT SLIDE.

UH, OUR NEXT COMPONENT IN THE MODEL IS OUR WATER USE ANALYSIS.

SO THIS IS WHERE WE TAKE HISTORICAL BUILD USAGE AND HISTORICAL MEASURES OF SIZE TO, UH, COME UP WITH OUR WATER USE FACTORS.

SO WITH THIS, WITH THIS NEW UPDATE, WE HAVE FIVE MORE YEARS OF, UM, MONTHLY BILLING DATA THAT WE'VE INCORPORATED TO REFINE OUR UNDERSTANDING OF, UH, HOW EXACTLY OUR CUSTOMERS ARE USING WATER.

AND WE DISAGGREGATE THIS DEMAND NOT ONLY AT THE, AT THE DTI LEVEL, BUT WE'RE ALSO DESEGREGATING DOWN TO THE SECTORS AND THE SUB-SECTORS AND DOWN TO THE END USES.

SO HERE YOU SEE THAT THE BIG PIE CHART OF HOW, UM, AT THE UTILITY SCALE OUR WATER DEMAND, UH, BREAKS DOWN.

AND IT'S, IT'S, AGAIN, IT'S USEFUL TO GET DOWN TO THE END USE LEVEL BECAUSE WE'RE BETTER ABLE TO NOT ONLY PROJECT DEMAND, UM, YOU KNOW, INDOOR VERSUS OUTDOOR IMPACTS OF WEATHER, UH, AND SO FORTH, BUT ALSO, UM, HOW OUR WATER DEMAND STRATEGIES WILL TARGET AND WHAT THE SAVINGS WILL BE, UH, ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STRATEGIES.

NEXT SLIDE.

AND THEN FINALLY, THIS ALL COMES TOGETHER IN THAT WE HAVE OUR UNDERSTANDING OF, OF WATER USE OUR, OUR WATER USE FACTORS, AND THESE GET MULTIPLIED BY OUR, UH, POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS TO GET AT OUR, UM, WATER USE OR OUR WATER DEMAND FORECAST.

UM, SO THIS IS ACTUALLY ONE OF OUR NEW POWER BI, UM, OUTPUTS FROM THE RECENTLY REVAMPED, UH, DISAGGREGATED DEMAND MODEL.

UM, BUT WE'RE STILL, WE'RE STILL WORKING ON THOSE PRELIMINARY DEMANDS, UH, MAKING SURE THAT, UH, WE'RE FULLY COMFORTABLE WITH, UH, THE RESULTS.

SO IT'S AN ONGOING QA QC PROCESS FOR THE MOMENT.

AND, UM, YEAH, WE CAN TAKE SOME QUESTIONS TO THE, WE CAN SEE MY FINGER .

UM,

[00:40:01]

SO ON THE, ON THIS PRETTY PLOT THAT YOU JUST SHOWED, UM, SO, SO IS THIS LIKE A GOOD REPRESENTATION OF WHAT MIGHT BE COMING OUT OF THIS AT THE END? YOU KNOW, WITH THE COMMERCIAL? I DON'T THINK, I DON'T THINK WE'RE QUITE READY.

OKAY.

THAT'S WHY THERE'S NO ACTUAL NUMBERS.

I SHOULDN'T TWEET ANYTHING .

YEAH.

YEAH, WE, YEAH, I WOULD HOLD OFF ON THE TWEETS.

OKAY.

JUST, YEAH, WE DO WANNA MAKE SURE THAT, YOU KNOW, UH, ALL OUR TS ARE CROSSED AND OUR DYES ARE EYES ARE DOTTED.

MAKE SURE THAT OUR, BOTH OUR, OUR POPULATION EMPLOYMENT, UH, INPUTS LOOK RIGHT AND, UM, OUR WATER USE FACTORS AND HOW THAT COMES INTO PLAY.

CUZ IT IS, UM, YOU KNOW, THERE'S SO MANY DIFFERENT DTIS, IT'S JUST A LOT OF DATA.

IT'S A ULTIMATELY A VERY BIG MODEL THAT, UM, TAKES, TAKES A BIT OF TIME TO MAKE SURE THAT WE'RE GETTING EVERYTHING RIGHT.

OKAY.

SO, SO YOU THINK THIS IS A PATTERN WE MIGHT SEE, I MEAN, I GUESS, YOU KNOW, THERE'S, THERE'S, AUSTIN IS GROWING, BUT OF COURSE THERE'S GREATER AUSTIN, WHICH IS, YOU KNOW, PROBABLY GROWING AT, AT THE SAME RATE IF NOT MORE.

UM, SO, SO I WAS JUST KIND OF WONDERING ON THE COMMERCIALS THAT MORE PEOPLE COMING IN AND THEN GOING BACK OUT TO THE CITY LIMITS.

RIGHT.

I WOULD SAY THAT, UH, FOR THE RESIDENTIAL WE, WE UH, DEFINITELY SEE A CLEAR TREND TOWARDS MULTI-FAMILY HOUSING.

UM, ON THE COMMERCIAL I WOULD HOLD OFF A LITTLE BIT.

OKAY.

THANK YOU.

UM, I HAVE A QUESTION.

I THINK, UM, I, I LIKE THIS DATA VISUALIZATION.

WE'VE BEEN PLAYING WITH LOTS OF DIFFERENT WAYS TO SHOW DATA AND THIS IS A, UM, A GOOD ONE.

UH, WE'VE BEEN LOOKING AT THIS ONE TOO, AND I THINK IT'S REALLY HELPFUL AND ESPECIALLY IN SHOWING CHANGES OVER TIME.

AND THEN THE KIND OF WHAT PIECE OF THE PIE IS EACH PIECE HAS.

UM, Y I THINK IT WAS ONE OF THE PREVIOUS SLIDES THAT, UM, IT HAD JUST LIKE A LITTLE BULLET POINT ABOUT IT, BUT LOOKING AT KIND OF LIKE 10 YEAR PROJECTIONS ON THE WATER USES IN EACH OF THE DIFFERENT AREAS, IF I'M GETTING THAT RIGHT.

I'M, I'M JUST, I HAVE A QUESTION, I DON'T KNOW WHAT THE RIGHT PLACE TO ASK IT IS.

ABOUT, UM, ABOUT WATER USE TRENDS OR CHANGES LIKE ON THE KIND OF POLYGON SCALE.

I KNOW I'VE, THEY'VE HEARD ME TALK ABOUT THIS MANY TIMES, BUT LIKE AS WATER USE CHANGES SWITCH OVER, LIKE THERE'S LOTS OF IRRIGATION SYSTEMS GOING IN MY NEIGHBORHOOD WHERE THERE'S NEVER BEEN ANY BEFORE, UM, IN CENTRAL EAST AUSTIN.

UM, AND THERE'S, I KNOW OF TWO PEOPLE IN MY NEIGHBORHOOD GETTING PAYING POOLS, THINGS THAT HAVE NEVER EXISTED OVER THERE.

UM, AND SO LIKE CAN YOU CAPTURE THOSE TYPES OF CHANGES? IT SEEMS LIKE IF IT, IF IT CONTINUES TO ADD UP THAT, THAT LIKE THAT POLYGON AND, AND THE WATER USE, YOU KNOW, PLANNING THAT YOU'RE DOING THERE, THAT THAT COULD KIND OF FLIP IT ON ITS HEAD IF, IF THE HISTORICAL TRENDS ARE NOT, ARE BEING KIND OF CHANGED AND THE TYPES OF HOUSING AND, AND THE WATER AMENITIES GOING IN ARE DIFFERENT.

RIGHT.

UM, I WOULD SAY THAT WE ARE, WE, WE, WE'VE SET THE STAGE FOR LOOKING AT THOSE TRENDS A LITTLE BIT BETTER WITH THE, WITH THE LATEST ITERATION OF THE MODEL.

OKAY.

UM, WHERE WE ARE, WE HAVE MORE, WE HAVE MORE BILLING DATA, SO WE'RE UP TO, UM, EIGHT YEARS OF BILLING AND WE ARE ABLE TO, TO LOOK AT THAT EIGHT YEARS OF BILLING.

UM, BUT WE'RE STILL REFINING WHAT THAT TREND PROCESS LOOKS LIKE MM-HMM.

BECAUSE IT'S OBVIOUSLY, UM, YOU KNOW, IT'S TRICKY TO, UM, BUILD OFF OF A HUNDRED YEAR TREND OFF OF EIGHT YEARS YEAH.

OF FILLING.

UM, SO, BUT, BUT WE'RE, WE'RE DEFINITELY LOOKING AT IT AND WE'RE LOOKING TO, UM, INCORPORATE MORE OF IT AS WE GO.

OKAY.

AND AS, AS WE BECOME MORE COMFORTABLE WITH, AND THIS IS WHY WE DO THIS EVERY FIVE YEARS, BECAUSE WHILE IT MAY SEEM PRETTY OFTEN TO, TO SOME PEOPLE, I MEAN, I THINK IT'S APPROPRIATE TO DO IT OR REFR CUZ THEN YOU CAN CAPTURE THAT TYPE OF STUFF IF YOU'RE CONTINUING TO ADD BILLING DATA AND, AND STUFF AND SEE WHERE TRENDS ARE KIND OF CHANGING OR GOING OUTSIDE OF WHAT YOU'D EXPECT.

OKAY.

COOL.

OKAY.

AND, UM, I THINK, WELL, ARE THERE ANY MORE QUESTIONS ON THAT OR IF NOT, I, I'LL PASS IT OVER TO JACKIE.

OH, HERE WE GO.

I HAVE A QUESTION.

QUESTION.

YEAH.

I, UH, AND IF FORGIVE SOMEBODY ELSE HAS ANOTHER QUESTION AND WANTS TO JUMP IN, BUT, UM, JUST ON THIS, THIS IS AN AMAZING, UH, VISUALIZATION AND IF I'M UNDERSTANDING IT CORRECTLY, IT'S KIND OF LIKE MIND BLOWING, LIKE MAYBE THAT'S WHAT ROBERT WAS GETTING AT A LITTLE BIT.

AND SO HELP ME UNDERSTAND THIS.

UM, IS THE IDEA THAT, CAUSE I GUESS PART OF THE, PART OF WHAT'S HAPPENING HERE IS SINGLE FAMILY USAGE RIGHT NOW IS, UH, THE HIGHEST CONSUMPTION IS BY SINGLE FAMILY HOMES

[00:45:01]

AND THEN IT, IT TAPERS OFF AND, UH, WE HAVE SO MUCH INCOMING COMMERCIAL DEVELOPMENT THAT IT'S LIKE, UH, I GUESS I JUST, IN PART OF OUR, PART OF OUR STRATEGY HERE IS LIKE REDUCING THE DEMAND PER CAP, UH, PER CAPITA.

THAT'S LIKE, WE HAVE ALL THESE STRATEGIES LIKE TO REDUCE DEMAND USAGE AND, AND USAGE PER PER CAPITA IN AUSTIN AT THESE SINGLE FAMILY HOMES.

BUT IS THERE, LIKE, IS THERE A COMPARABLE REDUCTION IN LIKE, UH, CONSUMPTION PER COMMERCIAL UNIT, WHATEVER THE COMMERCIAL UNIT IS, IF IT'S NOT CAPITA, I DON'T KNOW WHAT IT IS.

UM, IF THAT MAKES ANY SENSE, LET ME KNOW.

AND THEN ALSO, LIKE, WHAT IS, WHAT'S GOING ON IN 2030? WE, WE BASICALLY DOUBLE OUR CONSUMPTION AT THAT POINT OVER THE NEXT 10 YEARS BETWEEN 20 30, 20 40 AND DON'T SEE A SIMILAR KIND OF INCREASE, UM, A SIMILAR KIND OF DOUBLING OVER A 10 YEAR PERIOD AGAIN.

UM, SO I WONDER KIND OF WHAT ACCOUNTS FOR THAT AND THE PROJECTIONS.

SO I HAVE LOTS OF QUESTIONS, BUT UH, IF WE COULD START MAYBE BY UNDERSTANDING A LITTLE BIT MORE ABOUT, UM, THE COMMERCIAL UNIT OF MEASUREMENT, IF THAT MAKES SENSE.

SO I JUST WANNA CLARIFY THAT THIS GRAPH IS INTENDED AS, UH, AN EXAMPLE OF THE TYPE OF RESULTS THAT WE MIGHT SEE, BUT IT IS NOT ULTIMATELY OUR, OUR BASELINE DEMAND PROJECTION.

WE'RE STILL WORKING ON DEVELOPING THOSE BASELINE DEMAND PROJECTIONS.

SO THIS IS INTENDED TO BE AN ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE, UM, OF SOME OF THE RESULTS THAT WE'LL BE LOOKING AT IN FUTURE TASKFORCE MEETINGS.

UM, AND THEN THE, THE, THE STYLISTIC NATURE OF THIS GRAPH MAY ALSO BE, UM, PROVIDING SOME, UH, KIND OF CONFUSION AS WELL WITH THE RIBBONS AND THINGS LIKE THAT.

SO, WE'LL, WE'LL HAVE TO WORK ON SOME OF THE, THE VISUALIZATIONS, BUT I JUST WANTED TO MAKE CLEAR THAT, YOU KNOW, THIS IS NOT NECESSARILY OUR BASELINE DEMAND PROJECTION.

WE'RE NOT READY, UM, TO ROLL THAT ONE OUT JUST YET.

LIKE MIGUEL SAID, WE'RE STILL WORKING THROUGH A QA QC PROCESS.

OUR UNIT FOUR PROJECTION OF THE, UH, COMMERCIAL SECTOR IS THE EMPLOYEE.

UM, ON THE RESIDENTIAL SIDE WE USE SINGLE FAMILY AND MULTI-FAMILY UNITS.

WE TRANSLATE OUR PROJECTIONS OF EMPLOYMENT INTO A PROJECTION OF, UM, SINGLE FAMILY, MULTI-FAMILY, UH, RESIDENTIAL UNITS WITH SOME ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT HOW THE SHARE OF UNITS, UM, MAY SHIFT BETWEEN THOSE TWO SECTORS.

ONE OF THE THINGS THAT WE DO ANTICIPATE HAPPENING IN THE FUTURE IS THAT THE SHARE OF MULTI-FAMILY RESIDENTIAL UNITS WILL GROW LARGER AS WE TEND TO SEE PEOPLE, UM, LIVING IN, UM, MORE TWO PLUS UNIT TYPE OF, OF DEVELOPMENTS.

UM, THE, ON THE COMMERCIAL SIDE, WE BREAK THOSE EMPLOYEES UP, UM, INTO SECTORS AND SUB-SECTORS.

AND I THINK, WE'LL, YOU KNOW, WE, WE HAVE PROVIDED SOME OF THAT INFORMATION I THINK ON IN PREVIOUS UH, PRESENTATIONS, BUT WE CAN ALSO TALK A LITTLE BIT MORE ABOUT THAT IN THE FUTURE ABOUT HOW WE DO THAT, UH, DESEGREGATION.

AND A LOT OF IT IS BUILT OFF OF, UH, EXIST, UH, HISTORICAL, UM, UH, KIND OF BREAKDOWNS OF COMMERCIAL SECTOR COMMERCIAL SUB-SECTORS USING AN A I CS CODES.

YEAH.

AND UM, I WOULD ALSO ADD THAT YEAH, EVEN THOUGH THIS, THIS FIGURE'S OBVIOUSLY NOT, IT'S NOT FULLY QA QCD, WE'RE NOT, IT'S NOT OFFICIAL, IT'S JUST A, IT'S JUST A PICTURE.

UM, WE, UM, IT'S ALSO TRYING TO REPRESENT, UM, A, A BASELINE OF DEMAND.

SO IT DOES INCLUDE SOME OF THE, SOME OF THE TRENDS THAT WE'VE TALKED ABOUT.

LIKE, UM, SOME PASSIVE TRENDS IN WATER USE, UM, ARE INCORPORATED INTO THIS BASELINE DEMAND, BUT IT DOESN'T INCORPORATE ANY OF OUR ACTIVE WATER DEMAND MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES, WHICH DO TARGET NOT ONLY RESIDENTIAL, BUT THE COMMERCIAL SECTOR FOR SAVINGS.

SO, SO THEY'LL BE SAVINGS THROUGHOUT, UM, ALL OF THESE, ALL OF THESE RIBBONS.

BUT THAT'S NOT WHAT THIS FIGURE'S TRYING TO TRY TO SHOW.

THAT'S A REALLY GOOD POINT IN THAT THE WAY THAT KIND OF WE GO THROUGH THIS RESOURCE PLANNING PROCESS IS TO DEVELOP OUR PROJECTIONS, UM, WITHOUT THOSE ACTIVE CONSERVATION STRATEGIES EMBEDDED.

WE FIRST WANNA KIND OF GET A PICTURE OF WHAT COULD THE FUTURE LOOK LIKE AND THEN THAT HELPS US TO IDENTIFY WHAT ARE OPPORTUNITIES FOR LAYERING ON ADDITIONAL CONSERVATION STRATEGIES, REUSE STRATEGIES, WHETHER THAT'S THROUGH ONSITE REUSE, DECENTRALIZED RECLAIMED OR THE CENTRALIZED RECLAIM SYSTEM.

AND THEN WITH THAT REDUCED DEMAND

[00:50:01]

THAT WE'RE LEFT WITH, THEN HOW DO WE, HOW ARE WE MEETING THAT REDUCED DEMAND FOR POTABLE DRINKING WATER, FOR EXAMPLE, THROUGH OUR COLORADO RIVER AND HIGHLAND LAKES SUPPLIES? OR DO WE NEED TO BRING ON ADDITIONAL POTABLE SUPPLIES TO MEET DEMANDS? YEAH, AND I, I WOULD LIKE TO REITERATE THAT THIS GRAPH IS JUST A SNAPSHOT OF, UH, ONE OF THE SCENARIOS THAT WE'LL BE USING.

SO THE UM, HIGHLIGHT OF THIS NEW UPDATE IS THAT WE WILL HAVE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS IN THIS POWER BI DASHBOARD THAT YOU CAN FLIP THROUGH, SUCH AS LIKE THE HIGH, MEDIUM AND LOW POPULATION PROJECTIONS OR IF WE'RE INCORPORATING ACTIVE OR PASSIVE CONSERVATION, UM, AND INCLUDING WEATHER VARIATION IN THAT.

SO THIS HASN'T BEEN RUN THROUGH THE QA QC PROCESS AND IT'S JUST LIKE ONE, UM, SPECIFIC SCENARIO.

SO IT COULD BE LIKE THIS, IT COULD NOT BE LIKE THIS.

UM, MORE TO COME ON THAT, BUT I GUESS I CAN TAKE IT FROM HERE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF SLIDES.

CAN I ASK A QUESTION PLEASE? THANKS.

THIS IS SARAH FAST.

UM, WELL I JUST WANTED A COUPLE OF NOTES.

ONE THING IS, UM, JUST A REMINDER THAT SINCE THIS IS, UM, YOU KNOW, PUBLISHED ON THE WEBSITE, IT MIGHT, AND THERE IS A LOT OF SORT OF CAUTIONS ABOUT THE SLIDE IN PARTICULAR.

IT MIGHT BE HELPFUL TO PUT LIKE A, YOU KNOW, A WATERMARK EXAMPLE OR DRAFT OR SOMETHING.

UM, JUST TO NOTE CUZ I, YOU KNOW, IT IS OUT THERE IF IT'S, UM, NOT QUITE READY.

I KNOW IT'S SAYS ONGOING Q A Q C, BUT YOU MIGHT WANNA MM-HMM CLARIFY THAT A LITTLE BIT MORE.

AND THEN I GUESS I JUST WANTED TO POINT OUT THAT AS I WAS LOOKING AT THIS, THE IMMEDIATE QUESTION I HAVE IS, UM, LIKE WITHIN SINGLE FAMILY, HOW MUCH OF ARE, ARE WE CARRYING FORWARD WITH LIKE A 25% OUTDOOR WATER USE ESTIMATE? AND SORT OF, AS SOON AS I SAW THIS, I WANTED TO KNOW HOW MUCH IS OUTDOOR? UM, AND I DON'T KNOW WHAT THE ASSUMPTION IS IN THE SINGLE FAMILY CATEGORY.

UM, WE DO HAVE A WHOLE SLIDE ON THE OKAY.

OUTDOOR AND INDOOR SPLIT IF OKAY.

YOU WANNA STAY TUNED AND THEN WELL, YEAH, AND THAT, THAT'LL PROBABLY COME UP.

BUT THE OTHER THING I WAS JUST THINKING ABOUT IS, UM, IT, YOU KNOW, IT SEEMS LIKE WE'RE ALSO GONNA SEE PROBABLY ALONG WITH LIKE MORE MULTI-FAMILY, WE'RE GONNA SEE, UM, SMALLER SUBDIVIDED, SINGLE FAMILY LOTS.

SO, YOU KNOW, I'M JUST THINKING ABOUT HOW THAT WORKS WHEN YOU HAVE SINGLE FAMILY THAT'S PROBABLY GONNA HAVE MUCH SMALLER WATER USE THAN WHAT WE'VE TRADITIONALLY SEEN, ESPECIALLY IN, UM, CENTRAL AUSTIN WHERE WE'VE GOT, YOU KNOW, SOME REALLY LARGE LOTS CURRENTLY.

SO, BUT GO AHEAD AND PROCEED.

WE'LL SEE.

HOPEFULLY THAT COMES UP.

MM-HMM.

, UM, TO THAT QUESTION, SO THE MULTIFAMILY IS DEFINED AS THREE OR MORE.

SO ANYTHING GREATER THAN A DUPLEX, IF I'M CORRECT.

SO ANYTHING, IF A LOT IS SPLIT UP INTO THOSE SUBDIVISIONS, THAT WOULD BE LOOPED INTO MULTIFAMILY VERSUS SINGLE FAMILY.

UM, OKAY.

I DON'T KNOW WHY A SINGLE FAMILY LOT WOULD BE MULTI-FAMILY, BUT, AND TO YOUR POINT, THE, UM, WE ARE LOOKING TO INCORPORATE THESE TRENDS LOOKING AT OUR HISTORICAL BUILD USAGE AND PART OF THAT INCORPORATES, UM, WHAT'S THE IMPACT OF NEW DEVELOPMENT, WHEREAS, UM, WHAT ARE OUR, LIKE MOST RECENTLY BUILT CONSTRUCTION, WHAT'S THAT WATER USE LOOKING LIKE? SO THAT'S, THAT'S PART OF THIS ONGOING PROCESS OF TRYING TO INCORPORATE THOSE NOT ONLY PASSIVE CONSERVATION TRENDS, BUT UM, DEVELOP AND DRIVEN TRENDS.

VERY BRIEF FOLLOW UP.

UH, UM, THANK YOU FOR THE HELPFUL RESPONSE, MARISSA.

UH, SO I'LL TAKE, YEAH, TAKE ALL THIS WITH A GRAIN OF SALT AND WAIT TO SEE THE BIG PICTURE.

VERY WELL NOTED THERE.

BUT JUST TO CLARIFY ON, AGAIN, THIS IS NOT, IT'S NOT THAT THIS IS A, UM, SAMPLE SLIDE.

IT'S A DRAFT SLIDE, RIGHT? IT'S NOT LIKE WE JUST THREW IN A BUNCH OF RANDOM NUMBERS TO COME UP WITH THIS OR LIKE, IT'S LIKE A PHOTO THAT YOU BOUGHT IN A FRAME AND YOU JUST THROW IT AWAY.

THIS IS LIKE A, THIS IS REAL, THESE ARE REAL NUMBERS, WE JUST HAVE TO REFINE THEM.

THEY'RE LIKE OUR NUMBERS.

CORRECT, CORRECT.

MM-HMM.

.

OKAY, COOL.

BUT THEN I GUESS THIS IS ALSO KIND OF LOOKING AT, UM, THIS FROM ONE SCENARIO AND IN THE BASELINE CONDITION.

SO LIKE, LET'S JUST KEEP THAT IN MIND TOO.

YES, THE BASELINE CONDITION INCORPORATES SOME LEVEL OF PASSIVE CONSERVATION BASED ON HISTORICAL TRENDS, BUT IT DOESN'T INCLUDE ACTIVE STRATEGIES.

SO EVEN THE ACTIVE THIS CONSERVATION STRATEGIES THAT WERE INCLUDED IN THE WATER 40 18 PLAN, IT

[00:55:01]

DOESN'T INCLUDE, UH, IMPLEMENTATION OF THOSE STRATEGIES.

THOSE HAVEN'T BEEN LAYERED ON YET, OR LIKE GROWTH OF OUR CENTRALIZED RECLAIMED SYSTEM OR, UM, CONTINUED UPTAKE OF ONSITE REUSE.

IT DOESN'T INCLUDE THAT COMPONENT.

SO YOU ARE MENTIONING LIKE WE ARE, WE HAD TARGET OUR STRATEGIES AT LIKE REDUCING PER CAPITA RESIDENTIAL USAGE.

WILL WE DO THE SAME OR ARE WE DOING THE SAME FOR COMMERCIAL? A GOOD NUMBER OF OUR STRATEGIES ARE TARGETED AT COMMERCIAL REQUIREMENTS OR REQUIREMENTS FOR NEW, UH, COMMERCIAL DEVELOPMENT, SUCH AS CONNECTION TO OUR CENTRALIZED RECLAIM SYSTEM, MANDATORY, UH, INSTALLATION OF ONSITE REUSE FOR LARGER DEVELOPMENTS.

AND THEN THERE'S A, A SUBSEQUENT PHASE OF THAT STRATEGY THAT WOULD POTENTIALLY LOOK AT BRINGING DOWN THE THRESHOLD, UM, FOR THAT REQUIREMENT.

THERE'S OTHER, YOU KNOW, UH, KIND OF EFFICIENCY CONSERVATION OPTIONS THAT WE CAN LOOK AT FOR COMMERCIAL.

AND THAT'S THE NEXT STEP OF THIS PROCESS WHEN WE'LL BE LOOKING AT WATER MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES, UH, TO HELP EITHER REDUCE THESE DEMANDS THROUGH CONSERVATION AND REUSE OR TO MEET THEM BY, UM, OUR, OUR EXISTING OR ADDITIONAL SUPPLY STRATEGIES.

WELL, I THINK THE THING TO KEEP IN MIND HERE IS THAT THIS IS A DRAFT.

UM, THERE'S NOT ANY, UM, NUMBERS ON THIS EXCEPT FOR THE YEARS.

IT'S, IT'S, IT SHOWS WATER USE INCREASING AND RELATIVE DIVISION BETWEEN DIFFERENT USE FACTORS.

SO THERE'S NOT ACTUALLY A LOT OF INFORMATION ON HERE EXCEPT FOR THE SHAPE OF THE GROWTH, BUT, UM, IT WOULD PROBABLY BENEFIT FROM A DRAFT IF Y'ALL FEEL THAT YOU WANT TO DO THAT.

UM, AND LET'S, UH, LET'S KEEP GOING AND WE CAN LEARN MORE AND ASK MORE QUESTIONS, BUT WE ALSO WANNA PRESERVE TIME AT THE END, UM, OR THE LAST 30 MINUTES OF THE MEETING SO WE CAN HEAR FROM, UH, FROM SHERRY WHO'S HERE JOINING US HERE TODAY ABOUT, UM, THE LAND USE WORK.

SO, AWESOME.

WELL, OKAY, SO YOU CAN GO TO THE NEXT SLIDE.

SO, HI, I'M JACKIE.

UM, I WAS INITIALLY BROUGHT ON TO THIS PROJECT AS AN INTERN AND BASICALLY BROOKE HANNU, WHO PIONEERED THE DDM, HE HAD THE ENTIRE MODEL SPLIT UP BETWEEN THREE DIFFERENT SPREADSHEETS AND YOU HAD TO OPEN THEM ALL AT THE SAME TIME OR ELSE SOME OF THE LINKS WOULD BE BROKEN.

UM, IT WAS A LITTLE BIT OF A MESS AND KIND OF HARD TO NAVIGATE THROUGH CUZ THERE WERE SO MANY TABS AND ALL THE INPUTS WERE ON THERE AND THE OUTPUTS.

SO I WAS BROUGHT ON TO MIGRATE THIS WHOLE PROJECT INTO A PYTHON ENVIRONMENT BECAUSE I, UH, MAYBE FOOLISHLY SAID THAT I KNEW PYTHON IN MY INTERVIEW.

AND SO THEY SAID, YOU'RE HIRED .

UM, SO BASICALLY I WAS BROUGHT INTO THE TEAM TO RUN ALL THE CALCULATIONS IN PYTHON SO THAT IT'S LESS, UM, CHAOTIC ON THE SPREADSHEETS AND YOU JUST GET THE OUTPUTS AND WE'RE USING POWER BI TO DISPLAY THE OUTPUTS FOR THE CALCULATIONS THAT WE DID.

UM, SECONDLY, WE HAVE ADDED A MONTHLY TIMESCALE CONVERSION TO THE DDM.

SO NOW, SO NOT ONLY HAVE WE SPLIT THE CONSUMPTION AND THE WOLFS INTO INDOOR AND OUTDOOR COMPONENTS, BUT WE ALSO SPLIT UP THE OUTDOOR SPECIFICALLY INTO A MONTHLY WOLF.

SO NOW WE CAN LOOK AT IT AT A MORE GRANULAR SCALE AND SEE HOW MUCH WATER IS CONSUMED ON A MONTHLY TIME SCALE.

AND THEN WE ALSO HAVE INCORPORATED A NEW TYPE OF PROJECTION, UM, WHICH ALLOWS FOR US TO LOOK AT WEATHER TRENDS AND HOW THAT IS AFFECTING THE WATER USE.

UH, NEXT SLIDE PLEASE.

OKAY.

SO PYTHON, UM, AS Y'ALL KNOW, MAKES EVERYTHING A LOT FASTER AND IT ALLOWS US TO ADD A LOT OF DIFFERENT COMPONENTS TO THE MODEL THAT WE PREVIOUSLY THAT WOULD'VE REQUIRED A HUGE, UM, LABOR W WOULD'VE REQUIRED A LOT OF LABOR TO IMPROVE.

SO WITH PYTHON WE CAN ADD DIFFERENT THINGS SUCH AS DIFFERENT ACTIVE CONSERVATION MEASURES.

D WE CAN CHANGE THE PASSIVE CONSERVATION ESTIMATES, WE CAN CHANGE THE DEMOGRAPHICS AS WE EDIT THOSE IN THE FUTURE.

UM, I'M CURRENTLY IN WATER CONSERVATION AS A DATA ANALYST AND I'M ANALYZING WATER CONSERVATION PROGRAMS THAT ARE ONGOING AND HISTORICAL THAT WE'VE CLOSED.

AND USING THAT WE CAN GET BETTER ESTIMATES OF HOW MUCH WATER ACTIVE CONSERVATION SAVES.

SO WE CAN INCORPORATE THAT INTO THE MODEL, UM, MORE EASILY SINCE IT'S ALL IN PYTHON.

UM, AND ALSO WE HAVE PYTHON OR POWER BI DASHBOARDS, WHICH, SO WITH EXCEL YOU COULDN'T REALLY, UM, DIG INTO THE DATA.

WHAT YOU SAW WAS, IT WAS JUST THE GRAPH OF THE DATA.

UM, BUT WITH POWER BI YOU CAN DIG INTO IT AS YOU CAN SEE WITH,

[01:00:01]

SO THAT FIRST, UM, RIBBON CHART THAT WE SAW AT THE BEGINNING, UM, THAT IS WITH ALL THE SUB ALL THE SECTORS DIVIDED UP, SINGLE FAMILY, MULTI-FAMILY, COMMERCIAL, WHOLESALE AND CITY OF AUSTIN.

AND THEN THAT NEXT PICTURE IS JUST, YOU CAN'T SEE THE, UM, THE TEXT, BUT IT IS JUST COMMERCIAL SPLIT UP INTO THE DIFFERENT COMMERCIAL SUB-SECTORS.

SO WITH POWER BI WE'LL BE ABLE TO ZOOM IN AND GET MORE GRANULAR DATA OF HOW, HOW MUCH WATER IS BEING CONSUMED ON THE SUB-SECTOR LEVEL AND THEN ON THE END USE LEVEL AND THEN ON THE DTI LEVEL.

SO IT JUST ALLOWS FOR MORE, UM, NAVIGABILITY, IF THAT'S THE WORD, , TO DIG INTO WHAT OUR WATER PROJECTIONS ARE GONNA BE.

AND ALSO IF YOU SEE THE BOX AND WHISKER CHART AT THE TOP, SO THAT IS THE DISTRIBUTION OF WATER USE ON THE DTI LEVEL.

SO WITH THAT CHART WE CAN SEE WHO IS, WE CAN PLAY BIG BROTHER IN A WAY, UH, TO SEE WHO IS LIKE THE BIGGEST HEAVY, WHICH DTI IS USING UP THE MOST WATER OR THE LEAST.

UM, NEXT SLIDE PLEASE.

AND SO ABOUT THE MONTHLY TIME SCALE CONVERSION.

SO THIS CHART IS AN EXAMPLE OF THE MONTHS DIVIDED UP IN TERMS OF THEIR WATER USE.

SO WE CAN SEE EASILY THAT AUGUST, UM, IS THE HIGHEST CONSUMER HIGHEST WATER CONSUMPTION MONTH.

UM, AND THIS IS VERY HELPFUL FOR TARGETING WATER OR TARGETING WATER CONSERVATION STRATEGIES, UH, ESPECIALLY FOR THE OUTDOOR SECTOR.

UM, NEXT SLIDE PLEASE.

SO IN ADDITION TO THE MONTHLY, THE PYTHON, THE MONTHLY CONVERSION, THE PYTHON INTEGRATION, UM, I WANNA SPEAK A LITTLE BIT ON HOW WE CALCULATE THE MONTHLY ESTIMATES.

SO THIS IS A NEW PRODUCT BASICALLY FOR THIS ITERATION OF THE DDM, AND WE APPLY A MINIMUM MONTH METHOD TO TEASE OUT THOSE INDOOR AND OUTDOOR SPLITS OF WATER USE.

AND UM, ADDITIONALLY WE HAVE INTEGRATED A TRENDING HISTORICAL WEATHER, NORMALIZED DEMAND FORECAST.

AND WHAT THIS DOES IS IT INCORPORATES WEATHER DEMAND OR WEATHER VARIATIONS INTO THE PROJECTION OF WATER USE.

AND WITH THAT, THAT IS JUST ONE OF THE SCENARIOS THAT WE CAN LOOK AT TO SEE HOW WEATHER IS AFFECTING THE WATER USAGE.

UM, NEXT SLIDE PLEASE.

SO NEXT STEPS.

SO AS I SAID EARLIER, UM, WE ARE STILL DOING THE QA QC PROCESS.

UM, IT IS ONGOING BUT IT'S GETTING BETTER EACH EACH TIME WE LOOK OVER IT.

SO WE ARE ALSO, UM, INCORPORATING DIFFERENT DEMAND SCENARIOS SUCH AS HIGH, MEDIUM AND LOW POPULATION PROJECTIONS.

AND WE ARE ALSO INCLUDING WEATHER AND WE ARE ENCOURAGING, UM, USERS OF THE DDM DASHBOARD TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK ON HOW THEY WANT THE DATA TO TO BE DISPLAYED.

UM, AS WE SHOWED EARLIER, THE RIBBON CHART IS PRETTY COOL.

I, I REALLY LIKE IT JUST BECAUSE IT STACKS EVERYTHING IN ORDER OF LIKE LOWEST TO MOST CONSUMPTION AND I THINK IT'S JUST VERY EASY TO PICK OUT.

UM, ASSUMING IF WE WERE TO ASSUME THAT, YOU KNOW, THE QA QC PROCESS WAS DONE, IT WOULD BE EASY TO SEE THAT THE COMMERCIAL, UM, FAR EXCEEDS THE MULTIFAMILY AND SINGLE FAMILY SECTORS INTO THE FUTURE.

AND IT WOULD BE GOOD TO SEE THAT AFTER THE QA QC PROCESS IS DONE.

ANY QUESTIONS? UM, YOU TALKED A LOT ABOUT THE WOLFS, BUT I DIDN'T HEAR YOU TALK ABOUT MUNICIPAL EMERGENCY ONSITE WATERS.

, THE MEOWS, MEOW .

SORRY.

IT'S REQUIRED, I HAVE TO MAKE THAT DUMB JOKE EVERY TIME THE WOLVES COME UP , THANKFULLY IT'S ONLY EVERY FIVE YEARS, RIGHT? MAYBE YOU CAN GET THAT ADDED, JUST KIND OF SUR TYPICALLY INTO THE LIST OF ACRONYMS AND THE NEXT WATER FORWARD PLAN AND SEE IF ANYONE CATCHES IT.

ROBERT, UM, DO WE HAVE ANY QUESTIONS FROM THE TASK FORCE MEMBERS THAT ARE ONLINE? I BELIEVE YOU ALL HAVE ANSWERED ALL OF OUR QUESTIONS.

I'M SORRY.

I DO HAVE TO JUST MAKE A NOTE THAT, UH, HISTORICALLY WE HAVE SEEN THAT RESIDENTIAL CONSUMPTION IS THE LARGEST COMPONENT OF OUR, OF OUR SEC OF OUR OVERALL CONSUMPTION.

YEAH.

SO, UM, COMMERCIAL HAS NOT HISTORICALLY EXCEEDED OUR RESIDENTIAL CONSUMPTION AND I DON'T THINK THAT IN THE

[01:05:01]

PROJECTIONS WE ANTICIPATE THAT THERE WOULD BE A, A TREMENDOUS SHIFT IN, YOU KNOW, THE, UH, COMMERCIAL, FAR EXCEEDING OUR RESIDENTIAL.

UM, IT SHOWS THAT WAY ON THE GRAPH BECAUSE THEY'RE SPLIT OUT INTO SINGLE FAMILY AND MULTI-FAMILY.

BUT WE CAN CLARIFY THAT IN FUTURE PRESENTATIONS.

OKAY.

YEAH, AND I THINK, UM, I, THERE WASN'T ANY AC ANY ACTUAL INFORMATION ON IT, BUT THE, THE, YOU KNOW, REGARDLESS ALL THE WATER USE FACTORS