[Austin Resource Generation Plan Work Shop]
[00:00:03]
YOUR PARTICIPATION IS REALLY VITAL TO THE, TO PROPERLY INFORM THE AUSTIN ENERGY RESOURCE GENERATION PLAN OF 2035.
THAT SOUNDS LIKE A REALLY FAR TIME AWAY, BUT IT'S NOT RIGHT.
UM, JUST A FEW HOUSEKEEPING, UM, TIMES ITEMS. MY JOB IS TO HONOR YOUR TIME.
WE TRY TO START AND END ON TIME, UH, AND ALLOW SPACE TO HEAR FROM EVERYONE.
IF YOU'RE ASKING LOTS AND LOTS OF QUESTIONS TODAY, I MIGHT SLOW YOU DOWN AND ASK FOR OTHERS.
I MIGHT CALL ON YOU IF IT GETS QUIET.
SO BOTH OF THOSE THINGS TURN OFF YOUR PHONES.
THE BATHROOMS ARE OUT THE DOOR INTO THE RIGHT USE AS YOU NEED.
UM, AND WITH, LET'S SEE, WHERE ELSE? OH, WE'VE, HOW MANY RECEIVED AN EMAIL FROM US OR A COUPLE OF EMAILS? ONE SHOULD HAVE HAD A LINK TO THE, LET ME WRITE, MAKE SURE I SAID THE CLIMATE EQUITY PLAN FROM THE CITY OF AUSTIN, OFFICE OF AUSTIN, UH, OF, OF SUSTAINABILITY.
AND YOU SHOULD HAVE ALSO RECEIVED AN AUSTIN ENERGY AFFORDABILITY REPORT.
BOTH OF THOSE WERE KIND OF REQUESTED WITH ADDITIONAL INFORMATION FROM OUR FIRST MEETING.
IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS ON THAT, WE DO NOT HAVE TIME TO ANSWER THOSE QUESTIONS.
BUT ONE OF THE, THE PILES OF PAPER YOU HAVE ON YOUR DESK IS QUESTIONS.
IF YOU WRITE DOWN THOSE QUESTIONS, WE'LL MAKE SURE WE GET YOU THE ANSWERS OR REPORT BACK OUT NEXT MONTH.
'CAUSE WE'RE TRYING TO KIND OF HIT A TIMELINE THAT WE REQUESTED TO BY THE CITY COUNCIL.
SO, UM, THE, YOU, IF YOU DIDN'T SEE THOSE LINKS OR IF YOU NEED SOMETHING, LET ME KNOW AND WE'LL MAKE THAT WORK.
SO, UH, ALSO, YOU SHOULD BE AWARE THAT THIS, UM, MEETING IS BEING SHOWN RIGHT NOW THROUGH OUR WEBEX LINK.
WE'VE ALSO BROUGHT TEAM FROM A, UH, A TXN, WHO IS RECORDING THIS SESSION, UH, AND HOPING THAT WE'LL PROVIDE A LITTLE BETTER VIRTUAL EXPERIENCE FOR THOSE THAT ARE ONLINE.
THERE WILL BE A RECORDING OF THIS.
IT TAKES APPROXIMATELY 48 HOURS FOR IT TO POST.
I DON'T KNOW WHAT A FRIDAY DOES TO THAT DEADLINE, BUT, UM, THAT JUST KNOW THAT IT WILL BE POSTED.
SO I HOPE YOU'VE ALL BEEN ABLE TO INTRODUCE YOURSELF, UH, A LITTLE BIT.
AND, UM, WE ARE GONNA, UH, WE'RE GONNA DO A COUPLE, I DID A COUPLE ICEBREAKERS.
DO YOU REMEMBER WHERE WE STOOD UP OR RAISED YOUR HANDS? OKAY.
I WANNA SEE HOW YOUR SUMMER VACATION'S GOING ALONG.
SO YOU CAN STAND UP OR RAISE YOUR HANDS, WHICHEVER IS EASIEST FOR YOU.
SO WHO IS GONE ON VACATION SINCE THE LAST TIME WE GOT TOGETHER? OH, OH, OH.
A COUPLE PEOPLE WHO HAS SWAM AT BARTON SPRINGS THIS SUMMER.
OH TWO, WE GOT A, THE, THE MYSTICAL SPRINGS.
WHO'S BEEN TO THE BEACH THIS SUMMER? ANYBODY BEEN TO THE BEACH? ALL RIGHT.
HOW ABOUT ANYBODY WENT TO A POOL? YOU DIDN'T HAVE TO GET IN.
YOU COULD TAKE GRANDKIDS OR SOMETHING.
HOW ABOUT FLOATED DOWN A RIVER? YOU CAN TELL I LIKE WATER, RIGHT?
I ALWAYS LIKE TO END ON HOPEFULLY HAVING SOMEBODY ALL RAISE THEIR HAND.
I TRIED THIS YESTERDAY IN A RETREAT AND I HAD HALF THE PEOPLE THAT DIDN'T LIKE THE RAIN.
AH, I DON'T KNOW WHAT THEIR PROBLEM WAS, BUT, WE'LL, WE'LL MAKE THAT WORK.
UM, SO OUR AGENDA TODAY, UM, IS THE WELCOME INTRODUCTION.
I'M GONNA BRIEFLY GO OVER WHAT WE HEARD AT WORKSHOP ONE.
YOU SHOULD HAVE ALSO GOTTEN THAT REPORT.
UM, BUT I JUST WANNA REITERATE IT AND SEE IF THERE'S ANY, ANYTHING THAT WE MISSED SOMEHOW.
UM, AND THEN YOU'LL HEAR FROM LISA TALKING ABOUT HOW WE'RE RESPONDING.
WELL, HOW ARE WE USING THE INFORMATION THAT WE'RE GETTING? AND THEN YOU'RE GONNA HEAR ERCOT 1 0 1.
UM, I HAD NO IDEA I'VE LIVED, I MEAN, I'VE BEEN HEARING ABOUT ERCOT, BUT I HAD NO IDEA HOW IT WORKED.
AND WE'RE NOT GONNA GIVE YOU, I THINK YOU COULD TALK LIKE A WHOLE SEMESTER ON ERCOT.
SO I CAN'T ASK ALL THE QUESTIONS, BUT WE'LL JUST DO A BRIEF UPDATE OF THAT.
AND THEN THE BIG, UH, GREAT THING TODAY IS DR. MICHAEL WEBER IS HERE TO IMPART A LOT OF, UH, HIS INFORMATION AND STUDIES, WHICH I THINK IS GREAT.
AND WE'LL TALK MORE RIGHT BEFORE HIS PRESENTATION.
UM, HE REALLY HAS A LOT OF GREAT THINGS TO SAY.
I THINK THEY'LL BE INTERESTING.
WE'RE NOT, WE'RE GONNA BE ABLE TO ASK A LOT OF QUESTIONS.
THE NEXT MEETING, AGAIN, I'M GONNA SAY THIS LIKE SEVEN TIMES 'CAUSE PEOPLE DON'T HEAR IT TILL I SAY IT SEVEN TIMES.
BUT NEXT, THE NEXT MEETING, YOU NEED TO BE HERE BECAUSE THAT'S WHEN YOU ALL ARE GONNA TALK ABOUT ALL OF THIS, AND WE REALLY NEED ALL THE VOICES AT THE TABLE TO HEAR FROM EACH OTHER.
UM, SO THAT'S, THAT'S KINDA WHERE WE'RE GOING.
SO LET ME TALK THROUGH REAL QUICK WHAT WE HEARD AT THE FIRST WORKSHOP.
[00:05:03]
I'M, I GOT CONFUSED HERE A SECOND.BUT BASICALLY, UH, IT THE, WE BASICALLY, YOU LIKED THE MISSION, THE RELIABILITY AND TRANSPARENCY, UH, RE RELIABILITY.
UM, I AM REALLY SORRY I'M MESSING UP HERE.
OH, IS THAT WHAT THE PROBLEM WAS? OKAY.
SO, UM, FOR THOSE WHO HAVE NOT PARTICIPATED IN PREVIOUS RESOURCE GENERATION PLANS, AUSTIN ENERGY IS WRITING A NEW PLAN, NOT JUST UPDATING THE OLD ONE.
UM, AND THESE WORKSHOPS ARE GONNA BE ABLE TO DO THAT.
SO WE WANTED TO TAKE OUT OUR TIME OUT TODAY.
BASICALLY WE LEARNED FROM THE LAST MEETING THAT, UM, THERE'S AGREEMENT WITH THE MISSION PILLARS OF SUSTAINABILITY, RELIABILITY, AND AFFORDABILITY.
BUT WE ALSO HEARD ABOUT THAT EQUITY WAS GONNA BE REALLY IMPORTANT IN THIS PROCESS.
AND SO IS TRANSPARENCY AND COMMUNICATION.
UH, WITH, IN ADDITION TO THESE PILLARS FOR SUSTAIN SUSTAINABILITY INNOVATION, WE HEARD THAT Y'ALL WANT AUSTIN ENERGY TO TAKE A HOLISTIC APPROACH WHEN APPROACHING SOLUTIONS TO PROBLEMS AND TO PRIORITIZE FLEXIBILITY OVER SPECIFICITY.
AND WE HEARD MULTIPLE GROUPS MENTION CRADLE TO GRAVE OR LIFECYCLE ASSESSMENTS AS METHODS TO MEASURE EQUITY CONTINUED TO BE A THEME THROUGHOUT THE DISCUSSION.
AND IT WAS NOT JUST EQUITY WITH AFFORDABILITY OR LOCATION, IT WAS ALSO ON RELIABILITY.
THOSE THAT ARE MOST VULNERABLE ARE THOSE SOMETIMES WITH THE LEAST INCOME.
AND SO RELIABILITY IS IMPORTANT PART OF THAT.
UM, LASTLY, YOU ALL RECOGNIZE THAT A HUNDRED PERCENT RELIABILITY IS LIKELY NOT ENTIRELY ATTAINABLE.
HOWEVER, TRANSPORTATION TRANSPARENCY AND COMMUNICATIONS WERE NOTED HERE AS WELL.
AND YOU WERE ALL ENCOURAGED AUSTIN ENERGY TO BE MORE PREDICTABLE.
WE HEARD A LOT OF GREAT FEEDBACK AT OUR, OUR WORKSHOP.
UM, AND UH, WE ALSO HEARD THAT, UH, WE WENT TO THE EUC AND AT THE EUC, THEY EMPHASIZED THE IMPORTANCE OF KEEPING AUSTIN ENERGY PUBLIC.
AND YOU'RE GONNA HEAR A LITTLE BIT MORE ABOUT THAT.
UM, AND THEY WERE CONCERNED ABOUT THE PILLARS AND AGREEING THAT EQUITY SHOULD BE TOP OF MIND.
MANAGING RISK IS PART OF THE WORK AND THE CHALLENGES THAT BALANCE BETWEEN ALL THE DIFFERENT THINGS.
YOU CAN'T BE A HUNDRED PERCENT RELIABLE, A HUNDRED PERCENT AFFORDABLE AND A HUNDRED PERCENT SUSTAINABLE.
WE'RE GONNA HAVE TO BALANCE ALL OF THOSE KINDS OF THINGS.
AGAIN, PREDICTABILITY IS GREAT, BUT IS IT ALWAYS FEASIBLE? AND THEN TRANSPARENCY.
SO WITH THAT, UM, I'M GOING TO TURN THIS OVER TO LISA.
WHAT ARE YOU DOING WITH ALL THAT INFORMATION? OOPS, SORRY.
YEAH, SO AS LINDA MENTIONED, WE'RE NOT ONLY TAKING YOUR FEEDBACK TO THE ELECTRIC UTILITY COMMISSION, BUT ALSO TO THE CITY COUNCIL.
AND IT IS SHAPING THE WORK THAT WE'RE DOING EVERY DAY.
SO EVERYONE, I'M LISA MARTIN, AUSTIN ENERGY'S CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER.
IT'S SO GREAT TO SEE ALL OF YOU HERE AGAIN TODAY.
AS WE LISTEN TO WHAT YOU HAVE TO SAY, WE ARE TAKING YOUR FEEDBACK TO HEART.
IT IS SHAPING OUR WORK AND OUR DISCUSSIONS SPECIFICALLY WITH REGARDS TO THE RESOURCE GENERATION PLAN EVERY DAY.
SO FOR EXAMPLE, WE HEARD YOU EMPHASIZE EQUITY.
AND SO IN PARTNERSHIP WITH THE CITY OF AUSTIN EQUITY OFFICE, WE ARE ADDING FOCUS POINTS ON EXPLORING EQUITY MEASURES IN A DEEPER AND MORE MEANINGFUL WAY.
YOU SAID LIFECYCLE CONSIDERATIONS ARE IMPORTANT.
AND SEVERAL TIMES, JUST THIS WEEK, I FOUND MYSELF WORKING ALONGSIDE MY TEAM LOOKING TO SEE HOW WE CAN TAKE A WIDER LENS INTO PERSPECTIVE.
AND THEN WHEN WE TOOK YOUR FEEDBACK TO THE ELECTRIC UTILITY COMMISSION, THEY AGREED WITH YOUR FEEDBACK OVERALL.
AND THEY HIGHLIGHTED HOW IMPORTANT IT'S TO MITIGATE THE RISK TO PROTECT THE PUBLIC NATURE OF THE ELECTRIC UTILITY.
ONE COMMISSIONER SAID, AND I QUOTE FOR ME, IT'S ABOUT HOW WE PROTECT THE PUBLIC NATURE OF THE, THE ELECTRIC UTIL, OH, SORRY, IT'S FOR ME, IT'S ABOUT HOW DO WE KEEP AUSTIN ENERGY PUBLIC? HE POINTED OUT THE DIVIDENDS AUSTIN ENERGY GIVES TO THE COMMUNITY.
AND OF COURSE, WE ALL KNOW THAT PART OF THE REASON THAT OUR PUBLIC NATURE GIVES THE COMMUNITY MORE OF AN INVESTMENT, UM, AND AN INTEREST IN THE ABILITY TO BE HEARD.
SO ANYWAY, THANK YOU FOR YOUR FEEDBACK AND PLEASE KEEP IT COMING.
WE'RE GONNA TEACH YOU HOW TO USE THE MICS HERE IN A FEW MINUTES, SO WE'LL SEE HOW WELL I DO.
UM, NEXT YOU'RE GONNA HEAR BRANDON LOPEZ.
HE IS THE MANAGER OF MARKET OPERATIONS.
HE'S GONNA GIVE YOU A REALLY BRIEF OVERVIEW OF HOW ERCOT WORKS.
THAT'S IMPORTANT TO ALL OF THAT.
US, BECAUSE WE HAVE TO WORK WITH ERCOT.
I DID NOT REALIZE HOW CLOSELY THAT WHOLE PROCESS WAS.
SO I'M GONNA TURN IT OVER TO BRANDON.
UH, LIKE SHE SAID, I'M BRANDON LOPEZ AND ENERGY MARKET MANAGER HERE AT AUSTIN ENERGY.
AND, UH, BEFORE I GET STARTED, I ASK A QUESTION.
WHO'S HAPPY THAT IT'S FRIDAY? I'M PRETTY SURE WE CAN GET ALL WELL, ALMOST, SO
[00:10:01]
MAYBE SOME OF Y'ALL GOTTA WORK TOMORROW.OKAY, WELL, UM, ALRIGHT, SO I'M A TEAM OF ABOUT 40 PEOPLE, UM, HERE IN THIS BUILDING UPSTAIRS THAT WE'RE KINDA LIKE ENERGY TRADERS OR WE'RE KINDA LIKE STOCK TRADERS, BUT WE'RE NOT TRADING STOCKS.
WE'RE BUYING AND SELLING ENERGY IN THE ERCOT MARKET.
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN US AND STOCK TRADERS, WELL THE, THE STOCK MARKET CLOSES EVERY DAY, BUT THE ERCOT MARKET DOES NOT CLOSE.
IT'S OPEN 24 7, 365 DAYS A YEAR.
AND BECAUSE OF THAT, WE HAVE A TEAM OF PEOPLE IN HERE IN THIS BUILDING OR IN SOME OF OUR OTHER CONTROL CENTERS THAT ARE WATCHING ENERGY OR WATCHING THE ERCOT MARKET AND THE PRICE OF ENERGY CHANGE EVERY FIVE MINUTES.
SO ELECTRICITY IN THE ERCOT MARKET, THE PRICE CHANGES EVERY FIVE MINUTES.
AND WE HAVE PEOPLE WATCHING THAT 24 7.
SO I MENTIONED ERCOT A COUPLE OF TIMES ALREADY AND I'M SURE EVERYBODY IN HERE HAS HEARD OF ERCOT, BUT WHO ARE THEY AND WHAT DO THEY DO? ERCOT IS ELECTRIC RELIABILITY COUNCIL OF TEXAS.
THEY OPERATE THE STATEWIDE ELECTRIC GRID.
THEY MAINTAIN SYSTEM-WIDE RELIABILITY.
AND THEY DO THIS BY BALANCING, BY, BY SENDING PRICE SIGNALS IN THE ENERGY MARKET TO BALANCE SUPPLY AND DEMAND.
AUSTIN ENERGY IS LEGALLY REQUIRED TO PARTICIPATE IN THE, TO PARTICIPATE IN THE ERCOT MARKET.
WE DON'T HAVE AN OPTION, IT'S NOT VOLUNTARY.
SO I TALK ABOUT THE ERCOT MARKET AND I'VE TALKED ABOUT AUSTIN ENERGY, BUT WHAT DOES THAT REALLY LOOK LIKE IN, IN SOME PRETTY, SOME PRETTY SIMPLE, SIMPLE TERMS. WELL, LET'S SAY THAT THE ERCOT MARKET IS THIS BUCKET OF WATER YOU SEE IN THE CENTER OF THE SCREEN.
AND LET'S SAY ERCOT JOB IS TO MAINTAIN A CERTAIN LEVEL IN THIS BUCKET OF WATER, LET'S CALL IT 75%.
IT CAN'T BE 76%, IT CAN'T BE 74%, IT HAS TO BE STEADY AT 75%.
SO ERCOT IS BALANCING ENERGY, SUPPLY AND DEMAND.
AND WHEN THEY'RE DOING THAT, WE'RE MAINTAINING THAT LEVEL AT 75%.
THAT'S STABILITY AND THAT'S THE STABILITY THAT ERCOT IS CHARGED WITH AUSTIN ENERGY.
SO WHAT DO WE LOOK LIKE IN THAT, IN THAT GRAND SCHEME, AUSTIN ENERGY IS NOT BALANCING SUPPLY AND DEMAND, BUT WE'RE GENERATING ENERGY OR ELECTRICITY AND WE'RE SELLING IT IN THE ERCOT MARKET AND CONTRIBUTING TO THIS BUCKET.
AT THE SAME TIME, WE'RE BUYING ENERGY FROM THAT MARKET TO PROVIDE TO YOU OUR CUSTOMERS.
THERE ARE CERTAIN TIMES WHEN WE NEED TO BUY MORE ENERGY THAN WE'RE SELLING INTO THE MARKET, RIGHT? AND SO WE'RE GETTING THAT FROM OTHER GENERATORS THROUGH THE MARKET.
BUT KEEP IN MIND THAT ALL THESE OTHER GENERATORS AND COMPANIES ARE DOING THE SAME THING.
THEY HAVE OBLIGATIONS THEY'RE SELLING IN AND BUYING AS WELL.
SO I'M GONNA DRAW YOUR ATTENTION TO THE, THE MAP ON THE BOTTOM RIGHT HAND OF THE SCREEN.
EVERYTHING THAT'S NOT GRAY IS THE ERCOT MARKET AND IT'S A PRETTY BIG TERRITORY.
EACH ONE OF THOSE COLORS REPRESENTS A DIFFERENT PRICE ZONE.
AND THE PRICES CAN BE DIFFERENT IN THE ERCOT MARKET AND IN A, ON A REALLY GOOD DAY, THEY CAN BE THE SAME.
SO IT'S KIND OF HARD TO SEE AND YOU'LL SEE IT A LITTLE BIT MORE, BUT THERE'S A MAROON DOT RIGHT THERE IN THE MIDDLE THAT IS OUR SERVICE TERRITORY.
THE BOTTOM LINE ERCOT IS BALANCING SUPPLY AND DEMAND AND WE'RE BALANCING DOLLARS.
SO LITTLE MORE ABOUT THAT BALANCING ACT.
THE MAP ON THE LEFT IS THE BUCKET.
AND YOU CAN SEE ALL THESE DIFFERENT COLORED DOTS.
EACH ONE OF THOSE DOTS REPRESENTS A GENERATION RESOURCE.
IN AUSTIN ENERGY'S PORTFOLIO MIGHT SURPRISE YOU TO SEE THAT THEY'RE SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE STATE, BUT BECAUSE OF THE DESIGN OF THE MARKET, WE CAN HAVE THEM THROUGHOUT THE STATE AND STILL IN ERCOT SYSTEM CONTRIBUTING OR SELLING POWER.
SO I GONNA DRAW YOUR ATTENTION TO THE YELLOW DOTS WAY OUT IN WEST TEXAS AT SOLAR FARMS, THEY'RE PLACED OUT THERE 'CAUSE THERE'S A LOT OF SOLAR OUT THERE OBVIOUSLY, RIGHT? AND THE GREEN DOTS ARE WIND GENERATORS.
SO UP IN THE PANHANDLE AND WAY DOWN IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY, THE ONES DOWN IN RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN PARTICULAR, THERE'S A LOT OF WIND THAT COMES IN OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
AND SO IT'S BLOWING THOSE TURBINES AND AND ALLOWING US TO GENERATE POWER THROUGHOUT THE STATE.
SO BECAUSE OF THE DESIGN OF THE MARKET, WE CAN HAVE THIS DIVERSITY OF PORTFOLIO.
AND BECAUSE OF THAT WE HAVE A 70% CARBON FREE GENERATION PORTFOLIO, WHICH IS REALLY GOOD AND IT'S INDUSTRY LEADING.
UM, THAT'S HELPING US TO ACCOMPLISH SOME OF OUR RENEWABLE GOALS.
BUT THERE'S A DOWNSIDE TO THAT OBVIOUSLY, RIGHT? THERE'S SOME GIVE AND TAKE THE, BECAUSE THESE RESOURCES ARE OUT AWAY FROM, I GUESS YOU COULD CALL IT LOAD CENTERS, RIGHT? THE ENERGY NEEDS TO GET TO WHERE THE DEMAND IS.
AND OBVIOUSLY THAT'S OUTSIDE OF OUR TERRITORY OR OUTSIDE OF OUR, OUR PRICE ZONE.
SO WHEN YOU'RE TRYING TO GET THAT ENERGY IN, YOU'RE BRINGING IT IN FROM THESE OTHER PRICE ZONES AND THAT CAN CREATE A LITTLE BIT OF RISK.
AND SO YOU'RE PROBABLY THINKING RIGHT NOW, WELL HOW CAN THAT BE IF WE'RE ALL PUTTING INTO THE SAME BUCKET AND WE'RE ALL GETTING OUTTA THE SAME BUCKET ENERGY, HOW CAN THE PRICE BE DIFFERENT? AND THERE'S A NUMBER OF DIFFERENT FACTORS THAT CAN AFFECT PRICE.
SO WE'LL JUST, JUST TALK ABOUT ONE OF 'EM REAL QUICK.
AND I'M SURE EVERYBODY'S FAMILIAR WITH THESE PICTURES, RIGHT? WE'VE ALL BEEN THERE CONGESTION.
[00:15:01]
THAT YOU'RE TRYING TO GET ACROSS AUSTIN AND YOU HAVE TO PICK UP YOUR KIDS OR MEET A CLIENT ON THE OTHER SIDE OF TOWN AND LO AND BEHOLD IT'S FIVE O'CLOCK ON A WEEKDAY AND YOU JUMP IN YOUR CAR AND YOU START TRAVELING ACROSS AUSTIN.AND AS YOU GET DOWN 35, IT GETS MORE AND MORE CONGESTED AND YOU START TO SLOW DOWN, RIGHT? THE SAME THING HAPPENS WITH THE ELECTRICITY.
WHEN WE DON'T HAVE ENOUGH GENERATION IN OUR PRICE ZONE OR IN OUR SERVICE TERRITORY, WE'RE REACHING INTO THAT BUCKET IN THESE OTHER PRICE ZONES.
AND THAT ENERGY HAS TO GET TO US AND IT CAN OVERLOAD POWER LINES AS WELL.
BUT WHAT ARE YOU GONNA DO SITTING IN TRAFFIC? YOU'RE GONNA LOOK FOR AN ALTERNATIVE.
HOPEFULLY YOU DON'T CUT ACROSS DOWNTOWN 'CAUSE THAT NEVER WORKS.
BUT UM, SO MAYBE YOU DECIDE TO TAKE THE TOLL ROAD AND YOU JUMP ON THE TOLL ROAD AND YOU ZIP ACROSS TOWN AND YOU GET THERE IN TIME AND YOU PICK UP YOUR KIDS OR YOU MEET YOUR CLIENT AND EVERYTHING'S GREAT.
BUT WHAT DID THAT DO FOR YOUR COMMUTE? YOU PAID A PREMIUM TO GET ACROSS TOWN.
THAT'S MORE THAN IF YOU WOULD'VE MAYBE HAD YOUR NEIGHBORHOOD OR YOUR MAYBE HAD YOUR KIDS IN YOUR NEIGHBORHOOD OR YOUR BUSINESS MEETING IN YOUR NEIGHBORHOOD AND YOU COULD HAVE JUST DRIVEN A BLOCK.
THE SAME THING WITH IMPORTING ENERGY INTO OUR PRICE ZONE.
WHEN OUR GENERATION RESOURCES ARE MAXED OUT AND WE REACH INTO THAT BUCKET, WE'RE BRINGING ENERGY IN FROM OTHER PRICE ZONES.
AND THAT CONGESTION CAUSES PRICE VOLATILITY.
SO I TALKED ABOUT BEING IN THE BUILDING 24 7, 365 DAYS A YEAR WATCHING THE ERCOT MARKET.
WHAT IF WE DIDN'T HAVE THAT? WHAT IF WE DIDN'T HAVE ANYBODY WATCHING THE MARKET FOR US AND WE JUST REACHED INTO THE ERCOT MARKET OR THAT BUCKET TO GET ENERGY? WHAT WOULD THAT COST LOOK LIKE IN THE PREVIOUS 12 MONTHS THAT COST WAS $1.1 BILLION WITH A B.
BUT WE HAVE GENERATING ASSETS BOTH INSIDE AND OUTSIDE OF OUR PRICE ZONE.
AND WE HAVE, WE HAVE A TEAM WATCHING THE PRICE CHANGE EVERY FIVE MINUTES WATCHING THE ERCOT MARKET MAKING MOVES.
AND BECAUSE OF THAT, WE'RE ABLE TO CUT THAT POWER SUPPLY COST IN HALF, WHICH ALLOWS US TO PASS SAVINGS ONTO OUR CUSTOMERS.
SO WHAT ARE SOME KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM THE RESOURCE GENERATION PLAN? ONE, AS I MENTIONED, PARTICIPATION IN THE ERCOT MARKET IS MANDATORY AND WE HAVE TO FOLLOW ALL THE RULES AND GUIDELINES IN THE ERCOT MARKET.
AND LIKE ANY MARKET, THE ERCOT MARKET HAS RISKS AND BENEFITS.
ANY MOVES WE MAKE COULD HAVE A TRADE OFF POSITIVE OR NEGATIVE.
AND FOR THE GENERATION PLAN ITSELF, THE DECISIONS YOU MAKE NOW CAN AFFECT THE TOOLS THAT AUSTIN ENERGY HAS TO MINIMIZE RISK AND MAXIMIZE THE BENEFITS FOR YOUR UTILITY.
DON'T GO TOO FAR HERE A SECOND.
UH, LIKE I SAID, WE COULD PROBABLY TALK ABOUT THIS FOR A WHOLE SEMESTER, BUT ARE THERE ANY, SOME BIG QUESTIONS OR CLARIFICATIONS YOU NEED OUT OF WHAT BRANDON SAID? WE COULD TAKE A COUPLE.
AH, I THINK YOU'RE GOOD BRANDON.
PUSH, PUSH THE BUTTON AND SEE WHEN IT'S READ AND THEN MAKE SURE YOU TURN IT BACK OFF.
UM, SO I JUST HAD A QUESTION ABOUT THE OTHER FACTORS THAT IMP OR THAT IMPACT LIKE PRICE INCREASES OR LIKE THE PRICE FLUCTUATION.
SO COULD YOU JUST BRIEFLY LIKE SAY WHAT THE OTHER ONES COULD BE BESIDES CONGESTION? SO MAINTENANCE OR SUPPLY ON THE SYSTEM, RIGHT? IF YOU LOSE A POWER PLANT AT THE WRONG TIME OF DAY, THAT CAN CAUSE THE PRICE TO GO HAYWIRE.
AND IT DEPENDS ON WHAT PART OF THE STATE IT'S IN.
IT'S REALLY, YOU KNOW, THERE'S A LOT OF DIFFERENT SITUATIONS WHERE A POWER PLANT OUTAGE, THE SIZE OF THAT POWER PLANT, IF IT'S SMALL IT'S NEGLIGIBLE.
BUT THAT'S KIND OF THE BENEFIT OF THE ERCOT MARKET.
IT'S REALLY BIG AND THAT BIG ISLAND OF POWER OF GENERATION IS REALLY STABLE.
WHAT IS YOUR PREDICTION IF ERCOT CONNECTS TO, SO THE, SO THE QUESTION IS WHAT'S YOUR PREDICTION? IF ERCOT CONNECTS TO THE LARGER US ELECTRIC GRID, WHAT'S THE IMPACT? WHAT'S THE IMPACT? AND IF YOU DON'T KNOW THAT, YOU DON'T HAVE TO ANSWER, WE CAN COME BACK.
I DON'T, I DON'T REALLY HAVE A PREDICTION FOR IT, BUT YOU KNOW, THERE'S A LOT OF DIFFERENT OPINIONS AND I'D SAY THERE'S BENEFITS AND RISKS TO DOING THAT.
AND THAT, THAT'S, I'D STOP RIGHT THERE.
'CAUSE THAT'S A, THAT'S A BIG, THAT'S A BIG STUDY OR A BIG LOT OF OPINIONS ON THAT, RIGHT? ALL RIGHT, I'M GONNA TAKE TWO MORE AND THEN WE'RE GONNA STOP.
YEAH, WHAT, WHAT PORTION OF THE SAVINGS ARE FROM BOSTON ENERGY SELLING, UH, SELLING ELECTRICITY INTO THE MARKET? SO WHAT, WHAT'S THE PROPORTION OF SAVINGS WHEN WE WENT FROM A BILLION TO 0.58 ON SELLING OUR GENERATION INTO THE SYSTEM? SO YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT JUST LIKE THE IMPACT WAS
[00:20:01]
ROUGHLY CUTTING THE POWER SUPPLY COST BY 50%.AND THAT'S FROM SELLING IT IN OR FROM BUYING IT FROM COST.
IT, IT'S, IT IS A COMBINATION OF THINGS, RIGHT? IT'S, IT'S, THERE'S MARKET TOOLS, THERE'S HEDGES OR TRADES, UM, SELLING ENERGY.
AND, AND THAT, THAT ACTIVITY VARIES THROUGHOUT THE YEAR OR FROM YEAR TO YEAR DEPENDING ON THE, THE, UM, THE, THE WEATHER EVEN.
SO I DON'T REALLY HAVE A, LIKE A SOLID NUMBER FOR YOU.
WE DO SELL INTO THE, WE DO SELL END QUITE A BIT TO THE MARKET.
YES, QUITE A BIT, QUITE A BIT INTO THE MARKET.
A GOOD ANALOGY AS FAR AS TRAFFIC, CAN YOU TALK ABOUT TRANSMISSION CONGESTION AND WHAT IS BEING DONE TO RELIEVE THAT AT THE ERCOT LEVEL? HOW MUCH THEY'RE BUILDING, UM, HOW LONG IT TAKES TO GET THAT TRANSMISSION, THOSE TRANSMISSION BOTTLENECKS THAT CAN INCREASE OUR PRICES ALLEVIATED? YEAH, THAT'S PROBABLY, UM, A QUESTION FOR SOMEBODY ELSE IN THE ROOM.
I'M, I'M LOCKED INTO THE MARKET HERE IN THIS ROOM.
WELL, AND IT MIGHT BE PRETTY COMPLICATED AND WE CAN GET AN ANSWER BACK.
I CAN WRITE THAT DOWN IF YOU, OR IF YOU WANNA TAKE A CRACK AT IT.
YEAH, I CAN TAKE A QUICK, A QUICK MARK AT, UM, A ENERGY HAVING BOTH TRANSMISSION AND GENERATION SIDE, WE HAVE TO KEEP SOME OF THAT INFORMATION SEPARATE SO THAT THEY DON'T, UM, HAVE THE ABILITY TO GET INFORMATION INSIDE THAT IS NOT AVAILABLE TO ALL PARTIES IN THE MARKET.
SO BRANDON DOESN'T GET TO KNOW A LOT ABOUT TRANSMISSION, BUT UH, DAVE TUTTLE'S QUESTION'S REALLY MORE ABOUT IN GENERAL.
AND SO ERCOT IS ALWAYS DOING, UH, STUDIES TO ASSESS THE AMOUNT OF TRANSMISSION CONGESTION THERE IS, YOU KNOW, AND HOW WE CAN MORE EFFICIENTLY MOVE POWER ACROSS THE STATE.
AND, AND SO IT'S, IT'S HIGHLY SIGNIFICANT.
WE CAN CERTAINLY GET INFORMATION TO SHARE LIKE ACTUAL NUMBERS, BUT IT'S, IT'S A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF COST, A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF CONGESTION AND THE TIMELINES FOR UM, UM, RELIEVING SOME OF THAT CONGESTION CAN BE A LONG WAYS OUT, TAKES A LONG TIME TO GET, YOU KNOW, THE, THE, ALL THE DUCKS IN A ROW TO BE ABLE TO BUILD MORE TRANSMISSION CAPACITY.
UM, AND THEN BECAUSE OF THE WAY THE MARKET WORKS, A LOT OF PEOPLE WILL THEN SAY, OH THAT'S BEING BUILT.
THAT'S WHERE WE'RE GONNA CITE OUR NEW SUPPLY.
AND IT KIND OF STARTS THE, THE UH, CHICKEN AND EGG PROBLEM ALL OVER AGAIN.
SO WE'LL GET SOME MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION, BUT DAVE TITLE'S TALKING ABOUT SOMETHING THAT IS A SIGNIFICANT ISSUE THAT'S ALWAYS BEING WORKED ON MARKET.
OKAY, WE'LL TAKE THAT AS AN ACTION ITEM.
UM, FOR IN BETWEEN MEETINGS OR SOMEWHERE IN THAT PROCESS.
I, THERE AGAIN IN FRONT OF YOU ARE TWO THINGS.
SO ON YOUR DESK, SO YOU CAN LOOK AT THAT ONE IS A COPY OF THE SLIDES.
UM, THERE'S ONE SLIDE ON EACH PAGE.
YOU CAN TAKE NOTES, YOU CAN ASK QUESTIONS, ALL OF THOSE KINDS OF THINGS.
UM, AND THE OTHER ONE IS I DIDN'T GET MY QUESTION ANSWERED, SO IF YOU'VE GOT MORE ERCOT QUESTIONS, WRITE IT ON THAT SECOND ONE AND WE'LL COLLECT IT AT THE END OF THIS MEETING, OKAY? BECAUSE WE'RE, WE'RE GONNA TRY TO HONOR YOUR TIME AND KEEP IT GOING.
SO, UM, ALTHOUGH YOU'RE SITTING IN GROUPS TODAY WAS NOT A LOT OF GROUP DISCUSSION WHAT'S GONNA HAPPEN NEXT TIME GROUP DISCUSSION, WE WANT YOU HERE.
UM, SO, BUT DR. MICHAEL WEBER IS HERE TODAY.
HE'S FROM THE WEBER ENERGY GROUP FROM THE COCKRELL SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING AT UT AUSTIN.
A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW YOU HIM ON THAT.
UM, HE'S GONNA GIVE YOU A DEEP DIVE, MEANING HE'S GONNA SPEND ABOUT 40 MINUTES TALKING AND I'D REALLY LIKE YOU TO HOLD YOUR QUESTIONS.
I MEAN IF IT IS LIKE HE'S GOING AND IT IS JUST SO UNCLEAR, RAISE YOUR HAND AND WE'RE GONNA CALL ON YOU.
BUT I'M GONNA TRY TO GET THE QUESTIONS AT THE END OF HIS PRESENTATION AND THAT'S WHY WE GAVE YOU THE POWERPOINT PRESENTATION THERE.
AND YOU CAN TAKE NOTES, MAKE YOURSELF A QUESTION SO WE CAN GO BACK.
OKAY? SO THAT'S WHAT'S THERE, UH, IN FRONT OF YOU.
SO PLEASE HOLD YOUR QUESTIONS AND THEN WITH THAT I'M GONNA TURN THIS OVER TO DR. WEBER AND THEN WE'LL HAVE A QUESTION AND ANSWER PERIOD FOR THE REMAINING PART OF THE TIME.
OKAY, IT IS GOOD TO SEE EVERYBODY, SOME FAMILIAR FACES AND NAMES AND QUESTIONS OUT THERE.
SEE IF I CAN GET THIS GOING FORWARD.
SO I'LL TALK MORE SPECIFICALLY ABOUT AUSTIN ENERGY AND MY NAME'S MICHAEL.
WE HEARD I'M A PROFESSOR AT UT IN ENGINEERING AND ALSO THE OBJ SCHOOL OF PUBLIC AFFAIRS AND I'M ACCOMPANIED BY TWO TEAM MEMBERS, EMILY AUM OVER HERE.
SHE'S A MASTER STUDENT AT UT AND THEN DR.
GLASER GOT HER PHD IN ENVIRONMENTAL WATER RESOURCE ENGINEERING AT UT.
NOW AS A RESEARCH ASSOCIATE LEADING SOME OF THIS RESEARCH, EMILY'S DOING A LOT OF ANALYSIS SO THEY'RE HERE TO ANSWER THE QUESTIONS.
I DON'T KNOW HOW TO ANSWER BECAUSE THEY'VE GOT THE DETAILED VIEW ON THAT.
I'M A FAST TALKER, I'VE GOT A LOT OF SLIDES, YOU'VE GOT THE SLIDES THERE.
WE'LL HAVE PLENTY OF TIME FOR Q AND A AFTER THAT.
AND AS YOU HEARD FROM LINDA, MAYBE SAVE YOUR QUESTIONS FOR THE END UNLESS I'M SAYING SOMETHING THAT'S OBVIOUSLY WRONG OR REALLY CONFUSING, YOU CAN ASK FOR CLARIFICATION ON THAT.
OTHERWISE I'LL SORT OF BLAST THROUGH THE SLIDES AND THEN WE'LL TALK MORE.
I WILL TAKE A MOMENT THOUGH TO ANSWER DAVE TUTTLE'S QUESTION BECAUSE I THINK THE TIMING HE'S ASKING ABOUT ARE WHAT ERCOT ISS DOING.
THE WAY I THINK ABOUT IT IS IN TERMS OF TIME
[00:25:01]
AND TIMING AND DURATION, HOW LONG IT TAKES TO DO THINGS.AND THAT MIGHT BE USEFUL CONTEXT BECAUSE THAT SETS THE STAGE FOR WHAT'S HAPPENING IN AUSTIN AND IN TEXAS AND AROUND THE WORLD RIGHT NOW.
NEW DEMAND OR THE BUILDING A THING THAT REQUIRES ELECTRICITY TAKES LIKE ONE TO TWO YEARS TO BUILD, I THINK LIKE A BIG DATA CENTER OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT.
NEW SUPPLY TAKES LIKE TWO TO FOUR YEARS TO BUILD.
I THINK LIKE A SOLAR FARM OR WIND FARM OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT.
NEW TRANSMISSION TAKES LIKE FOUR TO SIX YEARS TO BUILD.
SO THINGS AREN'T ALL MOVING AT THE SAME PACE.
AND THAT'S PART OF THE SITUATION IN THE CONTEXT FOR US RIGHT NOW.
AND THAT TRANSMISSION, IF IT TAKES FOUR TO SIX YEARS TO BUILD AN ERCOT, THAT'S BECAUSE ERCOT IS REALLY FAST AT IT COMPARED TO OTHER PLACES WHERE IT'S LIKE 10 TO 20 YEARS.
SO IT ONLY TAKES FOUR TO SIX YEARS BUT IT STILL TAKES A WHILE.
AND THESE MISMATCHES IN TIMING REALLY SET THE STAGE FOR SOME OF THE CHALLENGES THAT WE FACE HERE IN AUSTIN AS WELL AS EVERYWHERE ELSE, WHICH IS OUR HUNGER FOR ELECTRICITY IS HERE AND NOW AND MOVING MORE QUICKLY THAN OUR ABILITY TO MEET AT SOMETIMES.
SO WE GOTTA PICK UP THE PACE ON SOME OTHER PARTS.
THAT'S JUST A A GREAT QUESTION.
I THINK THAT SETS UP THE FRAMEWORK FOR WHAT WE MIGHT TALK ABOUT.
SO LET'S TALK ABOUT AUSTIN ENERGY AND RESOURCES AND GENERATION AND CLIMATE PROTECTION PLAN.
LOOKING OUT TO 2035 AND START WITH AUSTIN ENERGY BASICS, REPEATING WHAT YOU'VE ALREADY SEEN AS A PROFESSOR.
I LIKE TO TALK A LOT AND REPEAT MYSELF.
SO YOU'RE GONNA GET A LOT OF REPETITION, A LOT.
UH, AND THIS IS JUST SORT OF MAP, SAME THING YOU JUST SAW FROM BRANDON.
AUSTIN ENERGY SERVICE AREA KIND OF MATCHES TRAVIS COUNTY, BUT NOT REALLY.
IT DOESN'T HAVE ALL THE COUNTY, IT'S GOT A LITTLE BIT OF WILLIAMSON COUNTY, KINDA LIKE ERCOT KIND OF MATCHES TEXAS BUT NOT EXACTLY YOU CAN THINK OF THAT FOR AUSTIN ENERGY.
AND IT HAS UH, OVER HALF A MILLION CUSTOMERS THINK OF A CUSTOMER AS A METER.
AND SO THAT MIGHT BE A HOUSEHOLD AND THERE'S A FEW PEOPLE PER METER, LIKE TWO TO THREE PEOPLE.
SO YOU CAN IMAGINE THAT'S LIKE A MILLION PEOPLE OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT SERVED BY THE HALF MILLION OR SO METERS AND EARNS ABOUT $1.5 BILLION IN REVENUES.
SO IT'S A, IT'S A BIG BUSINESS AND IMPORTANT UTILITY.
ONE OF THE BIGGEST UTILITIES IN THE UNITED STATES IN FACT AND HAS THOUSANDS OF EMPLOYEES.
SO EMPLOYEES, A LOT OF PEOPLE YOU MIGHT KNOW, PEOPLE WHO WORK HERE, THEY'RE IN THE ROOM, SOME OF THEM AND THEY MIGHT BE YOUR NEIGHBORS OR THEY'RE MEMBERS OF YOUR COMMUNITY AND HAS A BUDGET THAT MATCHES ROUGHLY WHAT THE REVENUES ARE.
THE PEAK DEMAND IN 2023 WAS ABOUT THREE GIGAWATTS, 3000 MEGAWATTS, 3064 MEGAWATTS.
YOU'RE GONNA HEAR MEGAWATTS A LOT AND GIGAWATTS, A GIGAWATT IS A THOUSAND MEGAWATTS AND YOU'VE PROBABLY HEARD OF WATTS OR KILOWATTS BEFORE.
SO A MEGAWATT IS A MILLION WATTS AND A GIGAWATT IS A BILLION WATT.
AND THOSE OLD FASHIONED LIGHT BULBS, YOU MIGHT NOT EVEN OWN THEM ANYMORE.
THOSE INCANDESCENT LIGHT BULBS WERE LIKE 20 WATTS TO A HUNDRED WATTS, SOMETHING LIKE THAT.
SO YOU CAN GET A SENSE BASED ON THE OLD LIGHT BULBS THAT HOPEFULLY YOU'VE REPLACED WITH LEDS.
AND THAT GIGAWATT IS A UNIT THAT'S VERY SPECIFICALLY MEANINGFUL IN A SCIENTIFIC WAY, WHICH IS THE RATE AT WHICH WE ARE USING ELECTRICITY.
SO A GIGAWATT MEANS WE'RE USING A LOT OF POWER AT THE MOMENT.
AND THEN THERE'S HOW MUCH ENERGY USE OVERALL IS MEASURED IN GIGAWATT HOURS OR TERAWATT HOURS.
SO WE USE 14 TERAWATT HOURS OR 14,000 PLUS A GIGAWATT HOURS AND THAT'S A FUNCTION OF HOW MANY GIGAWATTS FOR HOW MANY HOURS.
AND IF YOU WANT TO GO BACK TO CALCULUS, IF YOU WANT TO HAVE UH, SORT OF TRAUMATIC FLASHBACKS, IT'S THE AREA UNDER THE CURVE OF YOUR POWER AND GIGAWATTS OVER TIME.
SO FOR THE ENGINEERS IN THE ROOM, THAT MIGHT HAVE BEEN FUN.
WHAT I JUST SAID, FOR EVERYONE ELSE, I APOLOGIZE.
BUT THE, WE'RE GONNA HEAR GIGAWATTS IN GIGAWATT HOURS, GIGAWATTS OR YOU'LL HEAR MEGAWATTS IN MEGAWATT HOURS.
THERE'S THE RATE AT WHICH WE USE ENERGY IN GIGAWATTS OR MEGAWATTS AND THERE'S HOW MUCH ENERGY WE USE OVERALL IN MEGAWATT HOURS OR GIGAWATT HOURS AND WE HAVE TO SATISFY BOTH HERE IN AUSTIN ENERGY SERVICE AREA, WHICH IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE SOMETIMES YOUR GIGAWATTS AREN'T ALWAYS AVAILABLE WHEN YOU NEED IT, BUT YOU NEED IT EVENTUALLY.
AND THAT'S ESPECIALLY TO, FOR EXAMPLE, LIKE CHARGING YOUR PHONE OR YOUR LAPTOP OR YOUR ELECTRIC CAR OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT.
SO THERE COULD BE SOME MISMATCHES IN TIME, NOT JUST THE MISMATCH IN TIME THAT DAVE TUTTLE WAS KIND OF HINTING AT HOW LONG DOES IT TAKE TO BUILD A DATA CENTER VERSUS A POWER PLANT VERSUS TRANSMISSION, BUT ALSO THE MISMATCHES IN TIME BETWEEN WHEN YOUR WIND OR SUNSHINE AVAILABLE AND WHEN YOU NEED YOUR ELECTRICITY.
SO THERE'S A LOT OF MISMATCHES IN TIME AND SOME MISMATCHES IN LOCATION BECAUSE YOUR POWER PLANT MIGHT NOT BE WHERE YOU'RE USING THE ENERGY SO YOU MIGHT HAVE WIRES AND POLES TO MOVE IT.
SO THERE'S ALL SORTS OF SPATIAL TEMPORAL THINGS OR THAT WEAR MATTERS AND THE WHEN MATTERS OF ENERGY AND ALSO ENERGY HAS TO BALANCE THAT IN REAL TIME ALL THE TIME.
AS YOU HEARD, THERE IS A DIVERSE UH, MIX OF RESOURCES.
YOU SAW THIS UH, MAP ON THE LEFT BUT THEN CERTAINLY DONUT CHART TO SHOW YOU HOW IT'S BALANCED OUT.
THERE ARE A LOT OF RESOURCES HERE IN THE AUSTIN AREA OR CLOSE TO AUSTIN, UH, PRIMARILY NATURAL GAS AND SOLAR.
AND THEN THERE ARE OTHER POWER PLANTS FAR AWAY.
THE WIND TENDS TO BE FAR AWAY JUST BECAUSE IT'S NOT VERY WINDY IN AUSTIN, BUT IT IS VERY WINDY ALONG THE COAST AND THE WEST TEXAS AND THE PANHANDLE.
AND WE HAVE SOME SUNSHINE IN AUSTIN.
SO WE GOT SOLAR IN AUSTIN AS WELL AS IN WEST TEXAS.
WE'RE REALLY UH, SUNNY NUCLEAR ON THE COAST.
A COAL PLANT BETWEEN HERE IN AUSTIN, UH, HERE IN HOUSTON, EXCUSE ME.
AND THEN THE BIOMASS PLANT IN NACO DOJA.
THERE'S NOT MUCH HYDRO IN TEXAS.
HYDRO IS FALLING WATER AND IF YOU'RE IN A PLACE OF THE WORLD, SAY ICELAND OR NORWAY OR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHERE WE HAVE A LOT OF HYDRO, YOU TEND TO USE HYDRO IF YOU HAVE IT.
WE DON'T HAVE THAT MUCH AVAILABLE IN TEXAS BECAUSE YOU NEED ALTITUDE DIFFERENCES IN WATER AND WE TEND TO HAVE EITHER ONE OR THE OTHER IS WHAT IT WAY IT WORKS IN TEXAS.
[00:30:01]
THE GOOD NEWS IS IT'S MOSTLY CARBON FREE.LIKE WE'RE WAY AHEAD OF INDUSTRY AVERAGE.
SO AUSTIN ENERGY'S MIXES CLEANER THAN SAY YOUR TYPICAL UTILITY AND CLEANER THAN IN TEXAS IN GENERAL CLEANER THAN ON AVERAGE, FAR CLEANER THAN SAY RUST BELT OR MIDWEST AREAS THAT ARE VERY COLD DEPENDENT.
SO THIS IS GOOD NEWS THAT IT'S PRETTY CLEAN AND A DIVERSE, IT'S DIVERSE IN TERMS OF FUEL MIX AND LOCATION, WHICH IS GOOD AND BAD.
SO THIS IS THE MIX OF WHAT WE GOT IN AUSTIN, RIGHT? GOOD NEWS.
WE SHOULD BE HAPPY ABOUT THAT.
THE CHALLENGE BEFORE US, US AUSTIN ENERGY, US AUSTIN CITIZENS AND AND CUSTOMERS AND CONSUMERS, ANYONE ELSE IS THAT THE GRID HAS TO EXPAND AND DECARBONIZE WHILE THE WORLD IS WARMING.
SO THE WORLD IS WARMING AND THAT INTRODUCES ALL SORTS OF CHALLENGES TO THE GRID IN TERMS OF THE NEED FOR MORE AIR CONDITIONING FOR EXAMPLE, AND MORE VARIABILITY IN DIFFERENT SUPPLIES.
IF POWER PLANTS GET REALLY HOT, THEY CAN TRIP OFFLINE FOR EXAMPLE.
BUT WE ALSO NEED TO GROW THE GRID TO ACCOMMODATE NEW LOADS.
I SEE YOUR SHIRT ELECTRIC BETTER THAN GAS, WHICH IS CORRECT.
SO WE GOT ELECTRIC CARS COMING ON, WHICH ARE BETTER THAN GASOLINE CARS.
SO WE GOT NEW LOADS COMING ON.
A LOAD IS SOMETHING THAT CONSUMES ELECTRICITY.
SO WE HAVE NEW ELECTRIC LOADS LIKE CARS AND DATA CENTERS AND ELECTRIFIED INDUSTRY.
SO WE NEED TO EXPAND THE GRID AND DECARBONIZE IT, MAKE IT CLEANER.
BY DECARBONIZING I MEAN REDUCING THE EMISSIONS, ESPECIALLY WITH COAL AND THE NATURAL GASES AFTER THAT IN TERMS OF UH, CARBON EMISSIONS AND THEN THE WORLD IS WARMING.
SO WE HAVE TO ACCOMMODATE THE FACT THAT THE WEATHER WILL BE DIFFERENT THAN WHAT WE PLANNED FOR WHEN WE BUILT A LOT OF THE POWER PLANTS IN THE 1970S.
THE 1970S, UH, WAS A GREAT DECADE.
IT'S GOT GREAT MUSIC AND GREAT FASHION, BUT IT ALSO HAD MILD WEATHER AND IT WAS A RELATIVELY WET DECADE IN TEXAS HISTORY.
AND SO IT IT, IT'S IMPORTANT BECAUSE A LOT OF WHAT WE DID IN THE SEVENTIES WAS PLANNING FOR THE FUTURE AND THAT WEATHER IS GONE, THE WATER RESOURCE IS DIFFERENT, THE POPULATION'S MORE THAN DOUBLED AND IT'S HOTTER.
AND SO THAT'S SOMETHING WE THINK ABOUT AS WE BUILD MORE RESOURCES IS THAT WE HAVE TO BUILD FOR THE WEATHER OF THE FUTURE, NOT THE WEATHER OF THE PAST.
AND THAT'S THE CHALLENGE BEFORE US EXPAND THE GRID.
DECARBONIZE THE GRID OPERATE IN A WARMER WORLD.
AND THAT IS MAYBE ONE WAY OF THINKING ABOUT THE ENERGY TRANSITION OR I WOULD SAY EXPANDING AND DECARBONIZING THE GRID IN A WARMER WORLD IS ONE PIECE OF THE ENERGY TRANSITION.
AND IN MY OPINION IN THE UNITED STATES WE'RE ABOUT 10 TO 15 YEARS INTO A 30 TO 40 YEAR TRANSITION.
NOW THIS IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE A LOT OF SAY POLICY MAKERS AND POLITICIANS TALK ABOUT THE ENERGY TRANSITION SOMEDAY.
AND I'M LIKE, I THINK IT ALREADY STARTED.
IT ALREADY STARTED AND WE GOT A COUPLE DATA POINTS FOR WHY I THINK THAT ONE IS IN THE UNITED STATES, OUR CO2 EMISSIONS PEAKED AROUND 2006 TO 2008, SO QUITE SOME TIME AGO.
AND THOSE EMISSIONS PEAKED PRIMARILY BECAUSE OF DISPLACING COAL WITH GAS, WIND AND SOLAR.
ALSO A LOT OF EFFICIENCY WITH FUEL ECONOMY STANDARDS AND LIGHT BULB STANDARDS AND INCREASINGLY PUSHING TOWARDS LIKE ELECTRIC VEHICLES INSTEAD OF GASOLINE VEHICLES.
SO WE'VE DONE A VARIETY OF THINGS ON THE CONSUMPTION SIDE WITH LIGHT BULBS AND CARS AND ON THE SUPPLY SIDE WITH WIND, SOLAR AND GAS TURNING OFF COAL TO DECARBONIZE THE ECONOMY.
I MEAN WE'RE NOT DONE BUT WE'RE HEADED THE RIGHT DIRECTION IN THE UNITED STATES BUT IT'LL TAKE ANOTHER COUPLE DECADES SAY.
SO WE'RE ALREADY ROLLING, WHICH IS PRETTY GOOD.
WE ARE NOT THE FASTEST MOVER IN THE WORLD BUT WE'RE ACTUALLY PRETTY FAST.
WE'RE MOVING FASTER THAN EUROPE EXCEPT FOR THE UK.
THE UK IS MOVING FASTER THAN WE ARE.
UH, THEY NOW BASICALLY BARELY USE COAL UH, AND WE MAYBE CAN CATCH THEM AT SOME POINT.
SO THAT IS ALREADY HAPPENING, WE'RE ALREADY ALONG THE PROCESS AND A LOT OF PEOPLE LIKE ME, PROFESSORS AT UNIVERSITIES OR NATIONAL LABS OR SMART STUDENTS OR ANALYTICAL GROUPS AND DIFFERENT AGENCIES ANALYZE WHAT IT MIGHT TAKE TO GET TO A ZERO CARBON OR NET ZERO WORLD.
HOW DO WE DECARBONIZE THE ECONOMY AND WE ALL KIND OF COME TO THE SAME CONCLUSION WHICH IS DOING SO CAN BE DONE AND WE SHOULD DO IT AND THAT WOULD BE ECONOMICALLY BENEFICIAL TO DO SO.
THAT DECARBONIZING ECONOMY IS GOOD FOR US FOR A VARIETY OF REASONS.
AND THERE'S A VARIETY OF TERMS YOU CAN THINK ABOUT.
ONE IS HAVING A CARBON FREE WORLD WHERE THERE'S NO EMISSIONS ANYWHERE OR EVER.
AND ANOTHER CONCEPT IS AROUND CARBON NEUTRAL OR NET ZERO WHERE YOU HAVE EMISSIONS IN ONE PLACE BUT YOU TAKE THOSE EMISSIONS OUT AT ANOTHER PLACE AND MOST ANALYSTS CONCLUDE THAT NET ZERO IS CHEAPER, FASTER, OR MORE EQUITABLE THAN ZERO.
ZERO MEANS YOU NEVER HAVE EMISSIONS.
AND SO I'M TRYING TO THINK OF SOME OPTIONS.
NUCLEAR AND HYDROELECTRIC AND GEOTHERMAL AND WIND AND SOLAR HAVE NO EMISSIONS.
AND SO THOSE ARE ZERO CARBON OPTIONS.
NATURAL GAS HAS EMISSIONS AND SO YOU MIGHT HAVE EMISSIONS WITH NATURAL GAS AND THEN HAVE CARBON REMOVAL OR CARBON CAPTURE TO MAKE IT NET ZERO.
AND THEN WIND AND SOLAR, THE OTHER OPTIONS ARE ZERO.
SO THERE THERE'S SOME TENSION BETWEEN DO YOU HAVE THE ZERO EMISSIONS OPTIONS OR DO YOU HAVE THE NET ZERO OR CARBON NEUTRAL OPTIONS? AND IF YOUR GOAL IS TO OPTIMIZE AROUND LOWEST COST AND SPEED AND EQUITY, MOST OF US CONCLUDE NET ZERO ENDS UP BEING CHEAPER, FASTER, EQUITABLE, MORE SECURE, MORE RELIABLE THAN ZERO.
AND THAT'S AN IMPORTANT DISTINCTION, EXCUSE ME.
UM, AND I'M NOT HERE TO ADVOCATE FOR ONE OR THE OTHER, BUT OUR ANALYSIS AGREES WITH THAT.
AND THAT IS SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND FOR AUSTIN ENERGY FOR ITS RESOURCE MIX, WHICH THEY'LL COME BACK WITH I GUESS IN A FEW MONTHS.
AND THAT THAT'S A JUST IMPORTANT CONCEPT AND WE MIGHT COME BACK TO THAT IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS
[00:35:01]
ABOUT WHAT'S THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN CARBON NEUTRAL AND AND ZERO.SO THOSE ARE THINGS THAT HAVE IN MIND IN MY VIEW.
SO THIS IS MY PERSONAL IDEOLOGY PHILOSOPHY THAT I THINK IT'S IMPORTANT TO DECARBONIZE.
AS I SAID, DOING SO IS GOOD ECONOMICALLY AND ENVIRONMENTALLY.
UM, AND THEN TO RAISE THE QUESTION LIKE WELL WHAT SHOULD WE DO IN A WHAT ORDER? AND THIS IS WHAT I RECOMMEND IS A PRIORITY ORDER, FOUR STEPS.
THE FIRST AND MOST IMPORTANT STEP, THE MOST AFFORDABLE STEP.
THE STEP THAT PAYS FOR ITSELF USUALLY IS EFFICIENCY.
THAT ANY INVESTMENTS WHO MAKE EFFICIENCY USUALLY PAY FOR THEMSELVES.
YOU GET DIMINISHING RETURNS AT SOME POINT.
BUT EFFICIENCY AROUND LIKE FUEL ECONOMY STANDARDS, THE LIGHT BULB EFFICIENCY STANDARDS THAT CAME OUT AT THE END OF THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION WHERE WE REPLACED OUR INCANDESCENT LIGHT BULBS, LEDS, THOSE PAID FOR THEMSELVES, EFFICIENCY IS A REALLY GOOD PLACE TO START.
UM, AND IT'S ALSO LIKE BUILDING CODES.
THERE ARE A LOT OF WAYS EFFICIENCY SHOWS UP AND I SAY THE GOOD NEWS IS AUSTIN ENERGY IS A LEADER ON THIS AND HAS BEEN FOR DECADES.
A LOT OF THE GREEN BUILDING CODES ARE BASED ON THINGS AUSTIN HAD DONE DECADES AGO.
THE BAD NEWS IS SOME OF THE EASY EFFICIENCY'S BEEN DONE SO WE GOTTA WORK A LITTLE HARDER.
THERE'S STILL A LOT TO DO SO I DON'T WANNA UH, BELITTLE OR UNDERMINE THAT APPROACH.
UM, BUT OBVIOUSLY HAVING DONE IT HAS SAVED US SOME MONEY THAT WE CAN NOW USE FOR OTHER THINGS AS WELL.
SO EFFICIENCY IS A PLACE TO START AND UH, WE'VE GOT LEADERSHIP THERE.
THE SECOND THING IS ELECTRIFICATION ELECTRIFY AS MUCH AS YOU CAN, AS MUCH AS IS REASONABLE.
UH, I'VE ALREADY TALKED ABOUT LIGHT DUTY VEHICLES, THOSE ARE A VERY OBVIOUS THING TO ELECTRIFY.
THERE ARE OTHER LOADS MAYBE LIKE HOME HEATING OR HOME COOKING THAT COULD BE ELECTRIFIED AS WELL.
UH, THERE'S ALSO ELECTRIFIED INDUSTRY.
WE DON'T HAVE A LOT OF INDUSTRY IN AUSTIN BUT IN TEXAS WE HAVE A LOT OF INDUSTRY.
SO YOU COULD ELECTRIFY OIL AND GAS OR CHEMICALS OR SMELTING OR OTHER THINGS AND ELECTRIFYING TENDS TO REDUCE EMISSIONS, LOWER COST, IMPROVE EFFICIENCY.
SO ELECTRIFICATION ISS QUITE GOOD AND IF YOU ELECTRIFY THE RIGHT WAY, YOU GET THAT FIRST GOAL OF EFFICIENCY.
LIKE ELECTRIC VEHICLES ARE MORE EFFICIENT THAN GASOLINE VEHICLES.
SO IF YOU INVEST IN ELECTRIFICATION, YOUR CAR IS CLEANER BUT ALSO MORE EFFICIENT.
AND THEN SOMETHING UNIQUELY ABOUT ELECTRIC CARS IS AS THE FUEL MIX OF THE POWER SECTOR CLEANS UP, YOUR CAR GETS CLEANER OVER THE 10 YEARS YOU OWN IT, WHEREAS YOUR GASOLINE CAR GETS DIRTIER OVER THE 10 YEARS YOU OWN IT.
SO THERE'S SOME GOOD TRENDS THERE WITH ELECTRIFICATION.
THE THIRD PART IS USING CLEAN MOLECULES FOR THE PARTS OF THE ECONOMY THAT ARE DIFFICULT OR IMPOSSIBLE OR EXPENSIVE TO ELECTRIFY.
THINGS LIKE AVIATION, INDUSTRIAL HEAT, MAYBE HEATING BUILDINGS IN COLD CLIMATES.
SO THAT'S NOT REALLY AUSTIN BUT MAYBE SAY THE NORTHEAST OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT.
UM, MAYBE HEAVY DUTY TRUCKING, MAYBE MAYBE SHIPPING ACROSS THE OCEAN.
SO THERE'S SOME THINGS WHERE CLEAN MOLECULES MIGHT MAKE MORE SENSE THAN ELECTRONS AND THOSE CLEAN MOLECULES MIGHT BE BIOMOLECULES LIKE BIO METHANE OR HYDROGEN OR HYDROGEN CARRIERS LIKE METHANOL OR FORMIC ACID, AMMONIA, THAT KIND OF THING.
SO THERE ARE PLACES WHERE YOU CAN USE CLEAN MOLECULES THAT MIGHT MAKE MORE SENSE THAN USING CLEAN ELECTRONS.
AND THEN THE FOURTH IS CARBON MANAGEMENT USING POINT SOURCE CARBON CAPTURE AT THE SMOKE STACK SAY OR CARBON REMOVAL TO REMOVE THE CO2 FROM THE ATMOSPHERE FOR WHATEVER YOU HAD TO EMIT.
SO I KIND OF BILL THIS AS DO YOUR BEST AND THEN CLEAN UP THE REST LIKE LET'S REDUCE THE MESS AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE AND THEN WHATEVER MESS WE'VE MADE, LET'S GO CLEAN IT UP.
THAT'S KIND OF OUR OBLIGATION TO EACH OTHER AND TO THE FUTURE.
THIS IS A PRIORITY TO THINK ABOUT.
AND SO IF YOU'RE AUSTIN ENERGY EFFICIENCY, YOU'RE ALREADY LEADER AT ELECTRIFICATION IS GOOD FOR YOUR BUSINESS MODEL, THE FIRST TWO STEPS OF THAT ARE REALLY IMPORTANT.
AND THEN YOU MIGHT USE CLEAN MOLECULES TO GENERATE SOME ELECTRICITY AND YOU MIGHT USE CARBON MANAGEMENT TO CLEAN UP THOSE MOLECULES.
SO THIS IS A WAY TO THINK ABOUT HOW WE MIGHT APPROACH DECARBONIZATION AND THIS IS THE WAY I PRESENT IT, BUT MOST ANALYSES AROUND THE WORLD AROUND DECARBONIZATION KIND OF COME TO THE SAME CONCLUSION THAT EFFICIENCY IS THE PLACE TO START.
LET'S ELECTRIFY AS MUCH AS WE CAN WHILE CLEANING UP THE POWER SECTOR.
AND THEN WE HAVE A FEW OTHER OPTIONS AFTER THAT.
IF WE LOOK AT WHAT'S HAPPENED TO AUSTIN, YOU ALREADY HEARD HOW AUSTIN THROUGH BRANDON'S PRESENTATION IS A PART OF ERCOT AND ERCOT IS GOING THROUGH A LOT OF THE SAME THINGS THAT AUSTIN'S GOING THROUGH, WHICH IS GROWTH ERCOT SEEN SIGNIFICANT DEMAND GROWTH FOR POWER IN GIGAWATTS AND OVERALL ELECTRIC CONSUMPTION IN GIGAWATT HOURS AND TRANSMISSION CONGESTION.
AND THAT'S COMING BACK TO DAVE TUTTLE'S QUESTION AND SOME OF THE THINGS THAT BRANDON DIDN'T WANT TO ANSWER THAT LISA ANSWERED AROUND TRANSMISSION.
TRANSMISSION, MOVING THE ELECTRONS FROM WHERE IT'S GENERATED TO WHERE IT'S USED IS AN IMPORTANT PART OF THE EQUATION FOR ERCOT AND ERCOT ISS GOING THROUGH JUST INCREDIBLE GROWTH.
I MEAN A GROWTH THAT IS HARD TO FIND AN ANALOG FOR OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES, BUT LIKE KIND OF LIKE CHINA OR INDIA, THE KIND OF GROWTH WE'RE GOING THROUGH.
SO WE ALREADY HAVE A PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL GRID AND IT MIGHT DOUBLE IN A DECADE.
WE'LL SEE AND THAT WOULD BE REALLY REMARKABLE.
YOU'RE TAKING A COUNTRY SIZE GRID, A GRID THE SIZE OF THE UK OR FRANCE AND DOUBLING IT IN A DECADE.
AND KEEP IN MIND IT TOOK US ABOUT A HUNDRED YEARS TO BUILD IT TO WHERE WE ARE NOW.
SO A LOT OF GROWTH AND THIS IS ONE OF THE AREAS WHERE THERE'S A LOT OF AGREEMENT BETWEEN ENVIRONMENTAL GROUPS AND GOVERNOR ABBOTT AND ELON MUSK.
CAN YOU NAME YOUR PERSON? BASICALLY EVERYONE SAYS YEAH, ELECTRICITY DEMAND IS GONNA GO UP AND PROBABLY SHOULD GO UP BECAUSE WE GET SO MANY ENVIRONMENTAL BENEFITS FROM DOING THAT.
AND I JUST MENTIONED ELON MUSK BECAUSE HE'S, HE'S A LOCAL, HE'S A CUSTOMER OF AUSTIN ENERGIES AND UH, HE UM, HE ALSO SELLS THINGS THAT USE THE ELECTRICITY, AUSTIN ENERGY GENERATES WITH TESLAS AND OTHER THINGS AND THE POWERWALLS.
AND SO I THINK IT'S KIND OF A FASCINATING CONSENSUS AND AS A PERSON WHO'S BEEN IN THE ENERGY SPACE FOR A WHILE, THERE'S NOT ALWAYS CONSENSUS ON ENERGY BUT THERE IS CONSENSUS THAT DEMANDS GOING UP.
[00:40:01]
IF YOU LOOK AT ERCOT FORECAST ON THE LEFT, THAT'S IN GIGAWATT HOURS, THAT'S CONSUMPTION THAT WILL GO UP YEAR OVER YEAR FROM ABOUT 400 PLUS TERAWATT HOURS TO 500 PLUS TERAWATT HOURS JUST BY 2032 OR SO.AND THEN SAME KIND OF THING IN GIGAWATTS GOING FROM PEAK DEMAND TODAY OVER 85 OR SO GIGAWATTS IN ERCOT TO OVER 90 GIGAWATTS IN A FEW YEARS AND MAYBE WELL OVER A HUNDRED GIGAWATTS A FEW YEARS AFTER THAT.
SO SIGNIFICANT GROWTH IN POWER AND ELECTRIC CONSUMPTION THROUGHOUT THE YEAR IN ERCOT AND THEREFORE WE EXPECT SOMETHING SIMILAR IN AUSTIN.
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT NATURE OF OUR MAKEUP BECAUSE WE HAVE NO REFINERIES, WE DON'T HAVE FACTORIES THE SAME WAY, BUT WE DO HAVE A LOT OF PEOPLE, A LOT OF ECONOMIC GROWTH.
THE LOW GROWTHS UP FOR A LOT OF REASONS.
I KEEP TALKING ABOUT ELECTRIC VEHICLES AND I'LL KEEP, YOU'LL SEE WHY I'M OBSESSED WITH ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN A SECOND.
BUT THERE'S ALSO ELECTRIFICATION OF INDUSTRIAL LOADS.
UM, WE DON'T HAVE AS MUCH STEEL OIL AND GAS IN AUSTIN BUT WE DO HAVE IT IN TEXAS.
AND THEN THERE'S DATA CENTERS WHICH FOR A FEW YEARS WERE CRYPTO MINERS, CRYPTOCURRENCY MINING, BUT NOW IS LIKE ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND OTHER USES OF DATA CENTERS.
BUT THERE'S ALSO ELECTRIFICATION OF HOME HEATING REPLACING GAS FURNACES WITH ELECTRIC HEAT PUMPS OR HOME COOKING, REPLACING A GAS COOKTOP WITH AN DEDUCTION COOKTOP FOR EXAMPLE.
AND THEN FUNDAMENTALLY POPULATION GROWTH AND ECONOMIC GROWTH.
THERE'S JUST MORE OF US AND THAT WE AS WE HAVE MORE PEOPLE IN TEXAS OR IN AUSTIN, THEY ALL WILL WANT ELECTRICITY AND AS WE GET RICHER WE TEND TO USE MORE, ALTHOUGH RICH PEOPLE TEND TO INVEST MORE IN EFFICIENCY.
SO THE GROWTH ISN'T EXACTLY LINEAR.
AND THEN WE HAVE THESE WEATHER EVENTS, THE HEAT DOME OF LAST YEAR, THIS IS A MILD WEEK IN TEXAS OR AUSTIN I'LL TAKE IT, BUT LAST YEAR, IF YOU REMEMBER HOW HOT IT WAS FOR HOW LONG THE HEAT DOMES ARE BECOMING A MORE EVER PRESENT PART OF OUR REALITY AS WELL AS POLAR VORTICES, THESE COLD SNAPS LIKE WINTER STORM URI OR THE FREEZE IN 22 OR THE FREEZE IN 23 OR WHATEVER.
WE KEEP HAVING THESE FREEZES AND ONE OF THE CONFOUNDING PARTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IS THE TEMPERATURE GOES UP ON AVERAGE BUT COLD SNAPS WILL BE MORE FREQUENT AND INTENSE.
AND THAT IS SORT OF TOUGH BECAUSE IF YOU'RE A UTILITY, IF TO PREPARE FOR THAT WARMER SEASON THAT'S NOW LIKE FIVE MONTHS LONG BUT YOU HAVE A COLD SNAP THAT'S FIVE DAYS LONG IN THE WINTER AS WELL AND YOU HAVE TO BE READY FOR ALL OF IT.
IF IT WERE JUST GONNA BE HOTTER ALL THE TIME, YOU COULD PLAN FOR THAT DIFFERENTLY.
BUT IF IT'S GONNA BE HOTTER MOST OF THE TIME BUT ALSO COLDER SOMETIMES THAT CHALLENGES HOW YOU DO YOUR MAINTENANCE AND HOW YOU DESIGN YOUR SYSTEM.
SO THAT'S ONE OF THE REALITIES YOU HAVE TO PREPARE FOR.
AND THEN AS LIKE YOU COME BACK TO TRANSMISSION CAPACITY AND ERCOT IS SCARCE AND GETTING SCARCER, THERE'S ONLY SO MANY ELECTRONS YOU CAN MOVE OVER TRANSMISSION LINES AND THERE'S ONLY SO QUICK YOU CAN BUILD THE LINES AND SO LOCAL RESOURCES WILL BECOME MORE IMPORTANT.
THAT'S SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND NOW.
IT WON'T BE IMPOSSIBLE TO MOVE POWER FROM PLACE TO PLACE.
IT JUST GETS EXPENSIVE AND VOLATILE TO DO SO.
SO THAT'S UH, PART OF THE REALITY THAT THE TRADERS LOSS ENERGY HAVE TO OPERATE WITHIN.
AND THEN IF WE THINK OF LIKE THE LARGE UTILITY SCALE WIND FARMS, THEY TEND TO BE PRETTY FAR AWAY.
UM, SOLAR FARMS CAN BE CLOSE OR FAR AND ROOFTOP SOLAR IS VERY CLOSE.
SO THE DIFFERENT RENEWABLES HAVE DIFFERENT UH, SORT OF PROXIMITY BENEFITS OR DISBENEFITS DEPENDING ON WHAT THEY ARE.
LET'S LOOK AT A SPECIFIC VIEW OF LOW GROWTH IN AUSTIN ENERGY SERVICE AREA.
UH, IF WE JUST TAKE IN HISTORICAL DATA 2023 AND BACK, THOSE ARE ACTUAL NUMBERS AND THAT IS IN MEGAWATTS THE PEAK DEMAND HITTING JUST OVER 3000 MEGAWATTS IN PEAK DEMAND IN 2023.
AND THEN A FORWARD PROJECTION OF HOW IT MIGHT GO BASED ON POPULATION GROWTH, ECONOMIC GROWTH KIND OF BUSINESS AS USUAL AS IN BLUE, THE DARKER BLUE.
AND THEN THERE'S A A THIN KIND OF ORANGE LINE THERE AS HOME ELECTRIFICATION IF YOU DID LIKE MORE HOME COOKING OR UH, THINGS LIKE THAT.
AND THEN YOU ADD IN THE LIGHT BLUE AS DATA CENTERS AND THEN IF YOU ADD IN GREEN, THIS IS EV CHARGING.
SO IF WE LOOK AT THE PLANS FOR HOW MANY ELECTRIC VEHICLES THEY'LL BE IN THE AUSTIN ENERGY SERVICE HERE BY 2040, WE EXPECT HUNDREDS AND HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF THEM PARTLY BECAUSE THAT'S WHAT THE AUTO MANUFACTURERS ARE GOING TO MAKE.
THEY'VE ALREADY SAID THEY WILL NOT SELL YOU A GASOLINE ENGINE AFTER 2035.
SO THAT'S WHAT YOU WILL BE BUYING WHETHER YOU WANT IT OR NOT FOR THE MOST PART.
BUT ALSO THAT'S WHAT PEOPLE WANT AND THAT'S PART OF THE CLIMATE PLAN LOSS AND EVERYTHING.
SO WE, WE EXPECT A LOT OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES, THAT'S A GOOD NEW STORY BUT THE RISK IS THAT EVERYONE WILL PLUG IN THEIR CAR AT THESE EXACT SAME MOMENT.
NOW HOPEFULLY THIS DOESN'T HAPPEN 'CAUSE IF YOU DO THAT IN GREEN THEN YOUR PEAK DEMAND GOES UP TO SOMETHING LIKE UH, 7,800 MEGAWATTS.
SO YOU GO FROM 3000 MEGAWATTS OVER 7,800 MEGAWATTS, YOU GET A LOT OF PEAK DEMAND GROWTH IF EVERYONE PLUGS INTO ELECTRIC VEHICLES AT THE SAME TIME, WHICH HOPEFULLY WE WILL NOT DO BECAUSE THAT WOULD BE VERY DIFFICULT FOR THE GRID.
BUT THAT'S THE RISK WE HAVE IF WE'RE NOT CAREFUL AND WE REALLY DON'T KNOW HOW MANY EVS THERE'LL BE, BUT WE KNOW IT'LL BE A LOT.
DATA CENTERS IS KINDA A WILD CARD.
WE HAVE ABOUT 125 MEGAWATTS OF DATA CENTERS IN THE AUSTIN ENERGY SERVICE AREA RIGHT NOW AND WE'RE ANTICIPATING THAT QUADRUPLING GOING UP ANOTHER 500 MEGAWATTS OF DATA CENTERS.
IT COULD BE HIGHER, IT COULD BE LOWER.
SO IF YOU LOOK AT THESE HYPER SCALED DATA CENTERS THAT DO ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE, ONE DATA CENTER MIGHT BE 500 MEGAWATTS.
SOME OF THE DATA CENTERS ARE TALKING ABOUT ARE A THOUSAND TO 2000 MEGAWATTS, THESE HYPER DATA CENTERS.
AND THE NUMBER WE HAVE IN THAT CASE IS SMALLER THAN JUST ONE OF THOSE.
WE'RE THINKING MANY DATA CENTERS AND YOU COULD ARGUE THAT THE BIG DATA CENTERS WILL BE OUTSIDE OF AUSTIN BECAUSE THEY CAN GET THE SPACE, IT'LL
[00:45:01]
BE CHEAPER AND THEY CAN MAYBE NEGOTIATE A LOWER RATE SOMEWHERE ELSE.HOWEVER, YOU COULD ALSO ARGUE THERE'LL BE INSIDE AUSTIN ENERGY SERVICE AREA BECAUSE THIS IS WHERE THE TECH TALENT IS THAT USES THEM FOR THE TRAINING AND FOR ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE IT'S ALL ABOUT A RACE.
IT'S AN ARMS RACE TO GET A UTILITY HOOKUP FASTEST.
SO THEY'LL GO WHEREVER THEY CAN GET HOOKED UP TO THE GRID FASTEST.
SO WE DON'T KNOW IF THAT COULD BE HIGHER THAN 500 MEGAWATTS, IT COULD BE LOWER.
I'LL TELL YOU THAT THE UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WAS JUST AWARDED A WEEK AGO A NEW RESEARCH COMPUTER FROM THE NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION.
IT'S A HIGH SPEED OPEN SCIENCE COMPUTER, THE FASTEST OPEN SCIENCE COMPUTER IN THE WORLD WHEN IT TURNS ON IN A YEAR OR TWO THAT ONE COMPUTER WILL BE 30 MEGAWATTS, ONE COMPUTER, 30 MEGAWATTS.
AND SO IT'S EASY TO IMAGINE WE'LL HAVE A LOT OF COMPUTERS IN HUNDREDS OF MEGAWATTS AND THAT'S A HALF BILLION DOLLAR COMPUTER WITH ANOTHER HALF BILLION DOLLARS OF SUPPORT AND OPERATIONS OVER 10 YEARS.
SO IT'S A BIG DEAL AND UT WILL PROBABLY APPLY FOR ANOTHER COMPUTER LIKE TWO YEARS LATER BY THE WAY 'CAUSE WE'VE GOT A VERY GOOD ADVANCED COMPUTING CENTER.
SO SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND IS DATA CENTERS ARE HARD TO PREDICT.
EVS ARE HARD TO PREDICT HOW MANY WE'LL HAVE AND WHEN THEY'LL CHARGE.
BUT IF WE HAVE HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS LIKE WE HOPE AND EXPECT AND THEY ALL CHARGE AT THE SAME TIME, THE DEMAND WILL GO UP A LOT AT THAT MOMENT.
IN PURPLE IS OUR SUPPLY, WHICH ACTUALLY DROPS OVER THE YEARS AS POWER PLANTS.
UH, SORT OF AGREEMENTS THESE PPAS OR POWER PURCHASE AGREEMENTS SAY WITH WIND FARMS AND SOLAR FARMS AS THEY EXPIRE.
OUR SUPPLY WILL DROP AS TIME GOES ON AND THERE'LL BE A MISMATCH BETWEEN THE DEMAND AND THE SUPPLY AND THAT'S WHY WE'RE HERE TALKING TODAY.
ALRIGHT, SO THIS IS THE SITUATION.
IF EVERYONE PLUGS IN THEIR ELECTRIC VEHICLES AT THE SAME TIME, WHICH THEY SHOULD NOT DO, HERE'S A MORE SMOOTH SITUATION WHERE EVERYONE PLUGS IN THEIR EVS BUT IN A STAGGERED WAY AROUND THE CLOCK.
SO YOU ONLY HAVE LIKE 4% OF EVS PLUGGED IN AT ANY TIME AND NOW YOUR PEAK DEMAND IS NOT 7,800 MEGAWATTS.
SO SHIFTING HOW WE CHARGE MAKES A HUGE DIFFERENCE ON OUR PEAK DEMAND AND THAT'S ACTUALLY ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT TAKEAWAYS FOR YOU IS SMART CHARGING MANAGEMENT WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT FOR AUSTIN ENERGY IN ITS SURFACE AREA SO THAT WE DON'T BLOW UP THE GRID OF THAT PEAK DEMAND.
THE PEAK DEMAND COMES LOWER AND NOW DATA CENTERS BECOME MORE IMPORTANT ON PEAK DEMAND THAN THE EVS.
SO THAT'S SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND THAT'S REALLY AROUND THE CLOCK SMOOTH CHARGING.
IT'S HARD TO IMAGINE EVERYONE PLUGS IN THEIR CAR AT THE EXACT SAME MOMENT.
IT'S ALSO HARD TO IMAGINE THAT EVERYONE WILL PERFECTLY CHARGE THEIR CAR, UH, OUT OF SYNC WITH THEIR NEIGHBOR.
AND SO HERE'S WHAT ERCOT ACTUALLY PREDICTS.
IT'S ABOUT 10% OF EVS WILL BE PLUGGED IN AT PEAK TIMES.
AND SO MAYBE THIS IS A MORE REALISTIC PREDICTION, STILL GROWTH FROM 3000 MEGAWATTS TO SOMETHING LIKE 4,400 HUNDRED MEGAWATTS IN THE NEXT, THE NEXT 16 YEARS OR SO.
DAVE, COULD YOU CLARIFY ALSO HOW IF YOU HAVE SMART CHARGING, IT COULD ACTUALLY IMPROVE THE ECONOMICS? I'LL GET TO THAT OF THE GRID.
SO WHEN CHARGING SMARTLY, MEANING DON'T ALL PLUG IT IN AT THE EXACT SAME MOMENT, UM, WILL SPARE A LOT OF HEARTACHE ON STRAIN ON THE GRID, BUT ALSO MIGHT IMPROVE THE FINANCES DRAMATICALLY FOR THE UTILITY.
SO I'LL COME TO THAT IN A LITTLE BIT.
ALRIGHT, SO WHEN WE CHARGE EVS WILL MATTER I GUESS IS THE POINT I'M TRYING TO SAY.
DATA CENTERS TEND TO BE ON AND THEY JUST STAY ON ELECTRIC COOKTOPS FOR ELECTRIC COOKING AT HOME.
WE TEND TO COOK AT BREAKFAST TIME AT DINNER.
SO THERE ARE VERY SPECIFIC TIMES WE COOK.
AND HOME HEATING, WE TEND TO HEAT WHEN IT'S COLD OUTSIDE.
SO THERE'S CERTAIN PATTERNS YOU MIGHT KNOW AHEAD OF TIME DRIVEN BY WHEN WE GO TO WORK OR THE WEATHER AND THERE ARE OTHER PATTERNS WE MIGHT NOT KNOW, WHICH IS WHEN WE CHARGE OUR VEHICLES.
ALRIGHT, SO LET'S TALK ABOUT IS IT REALLY POSSIBLE FOR HUMANS ACROSS A WIDE AREA TO ACTUALLY ENGAGE IN SYNCHRONOUS BEHAVIOR? AND THE ANSWER IS YES.
WE DO IT FOR WEATHER ALL THE TIME.
WE TEND TO OPERATE OUR HEATERS OR AIR CONDITIONERS AT THE SAME TIME DRIVEN BY THE WEATHER.
SO WE ALREADY HAVE THESE SPIKES IN DEMAND FOR AIR CONDITIONERS OR ELECTRIC HEATERS AS WE SAW IN WINTER STORM URI OR IN THE HEAT DOME LAST YEAR.
SO THIS IS PRETTY TYPICAL FOR A WEATHER EVENT BECAUSE THE WEATHER IS USUALLY ACROSS A A PRETTY BIG AREA.
WINTER STORM URI WAS THE ENTIRE STATE OF TEXAS, FOR EXAMPLE, BUT WE ALSO DO IT FOR NON WEATHER ACTIVITIES.
SO I'LL GIVE A COUPLE EXAMPLES OF THAT IN UH ENGLAND, I TALKED ABOUT UK EARLIER 'CAUSE OF DECARBONIZING.
THERE'S A POPULAR SOAP OPERA CALLED THE EAST ENDERS ON BBC.
AND WHEN THAT SHOW ENDS, THERE'S A HUGE SURGE IN DEMAND FOR POWER BECAUSE 1.75 MILLION LGT KETTLES ARE TURNED ON AT THE EXACT SAME MOMENT, WHICH IS RIGHT OFF THE SHOW ENDS.
AND YOU GET A SURGE IN DEMAND OF THREE GIGAWATTS FOR THREE TO FIVE MINUTES.
THREE GIGAWATTS IS ABOUT THREE NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS WORTH OF POWER.
AND IN FACT, FRANCE WILL HAVE NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS ON STANDBY.
AND YOU ALSO HAVE HYDROELECTRIC ON STANDBY AND WHALES JUST TO SERVE THIS SURGE A LOAD FOR A FEW MINUTES.
SO THIS IS SOMETHING THAT'S A WELL KNOWN PHENOMENA THAT THIS IS NOT WEATHER DRIVEN, IT'S DRIVEN BY THIS SHOW.
WE DID THE SAME THING IN AMERICA, BUT RATHER THAN, UH, THROUGH DRINKING TEA, IT'S FROM FLUSHING TOILETS.
IT'S CALLED THE SUPER BOWL FLUSH, THAT THERE ARE SPIKES IN WASTEWATER FLOWS AS WE ALL FLUSH AT THE EXACT SAME MOMENT, WHICH IS HALFTIME OR THE COMMERCIALS WHEN THE SUPER BOWL HAPPENS.
AND AS A CONSEQUENCE, THERE'S A BIG POLE OF WATER FROM THE RESERVOIR.
THIS IS FOR THE NEW YORK CITY SYSTEM.
AND YOU CAN LOOK AT THE SUNDAY PRIOR TO SUPER BOWL AND THE LOWER CHART AND THEN THE SUPER BOWL SUNDAY.
UH, IN THE SAME YEAR AT THE TOP CHART, THERE ARE THESE SURGES IN POLES OF WATER FROM THE RESERVOIR AND WAVES OF WATER GOING DOWN THE WASTEWATER SEWAGE SYSTEM.
IF ANY OF YOU SAW THE ANIMATED MOVIE FLUSHED AWAY, IT'S A KIDS' MOVIE.
THEY TALK ABOUT THE SUPER BOWL FLUSH, RIGHT? IT'S IN THE MOVIE.
SO OUR POPULAR CULTURE ALREADY ACKNOWLEDGES
[00:50:01]
THIS PHENOMENON.AND SO THIS IS SOMETHING THAT KEEP IN MIND IS THAT YES, WE HUMANS ARE ABLE, I GUESS AT LEAST FOR TV SHOWS TO ACT THE SAME WAY.
BUT WE ALSO DO IT FOR HOLIDAYS.
HERE'S A TRAFFIC JAM IN LA WHERE I LIVED FOR MANY YEARS THANKSGIVING TR LIKE WE WILL, THAT'S NOT WEATHER DRIVEN, THAT'S HOLIDAY DRIVEN.
WE WILL DO THE EXACT SAME THING AT THE SAME TIME QUITE OFTEN, AND THAT'S THE RISK WE HAVE TO PREPARE FOR WITH ELECTRIC VEHICLES THAT WE'LL ALL PLUG IN AT 5:00 PM ON A HOT AUGUST AFTERNOON COMING BACK, KIND OF HINTING AT WHAT DAVE TUTTLE WAS ASKING ABOUT, UH, THE WAY I SAY IT IS WHETHER ELECTRIC VEHICLES BREAK OR SAVE THE GRID DEPENDS ON WHAT TIME OF DAY YOU CHARGE THEM.
AND THIS HAS BEEN A KNOWN RISK FOR QUITE SOME TIME.
SO RESEARCH COMMUNITY'S BEEN TALKING ABOUT THIS FOR A WHILE.
THESE ARE SOME FIGURES FROM A, A PAPER PUBLISHED IN 2008 ON THE RIGHT AND FOR THIS IS FOR CALIFORNIA BASED ON HOW MANY VEHICLES YOU HAVE, 1 MILLION, 5 MILLION OR 10 MILLION VEHICLES VERSUS ACTUAL CHARGING.
IF EVERYONE PLUGS IN IN THE EVENING, SAY THAT'S LIKE SIX TO 10:00 PM YOU GET THAT HUGE SURGE IN THE, THE SORT OF COLORS, THE MAGENTA BLUE AND RED ON THE RIGHT.
AT PEAK TIMES YOU WOULD HAVE TO EXPAND PEAK CAPACITY IN THIS CASE FROM 30 GIGAWATTS TO 42 GIGAWATTS OR SO TO ACCOMMODATE THE PEAK DEMAND FROM ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN CALIFORNIA.
IF EVERYONE PLUGS IN AT THE SAME TIME BUT ON THE LEFT, WELL WHAT IF THEY DID WHAT'S CALLED VALLEY FILLING WHERE YOU CHARGE IN THE OFF HOURS, SAY BETWEEN 2:00 AM OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT AND 7:00 AM WELL THEN YOU ACTUALLY DON'T HAVE TO INCREASE YOUR CAPACITY AT ALL.
YOU'RE FILLING IN WHEN YOU HAVE EXCESS CAPACITY, BUT LOW SUPPLY AND THIS AND ULTIMATELY IMPROVES THE ECONOMICS, WHICH I THINK YOU'RE ASKING ABOUT FOR THE UTILITY.
'CAUSE NOW YOU TAKE THE SAME POWER PLANTS BUT YOU RUN THEM 20 HOURS A DAY INSTEAD OF 14 HOURS A DAY.
SO YOU TAKE YOUR SAME ASSET AND MAKE MORE REVENUE.
SO ELECTRIC VEHICLES ACTUALLY BE QUITE GOOD FOR THE ECONOMICS OF UTILITY AND LOWER COSTS FOR EVERYBODY IF WE MANAGE THE CHARGING.
BUT IF YOU DON'T MANAGE THE CHARGING, YOU HAVE A SURGE AT PEAK TIME, YOU CAN STRAIN THE GRID AND YOU HAVE TO BUILD A LOT OF POWER PLANTS JUST FOR THAT.
SO JUST KEEP THAT IN MIND THAT ELECTRIC VEHICLES ARE GREAT, BUT WE HAVE TO BE MINDFUL ABOUT WHEN WE CHARGE THEM.
NOW TALK ABOUT THE RISING DEMAND FROM DATA CENTERS AND HOME HEATING ELECTRIC VEHICLES.
BUT THERE'S ALSO THIS UH, FALLING UH, GENERATING CAPACITY, AT LEAST IN OS ENERGY'S UH, SERVICE AREA.
HERE ARE TWO CHARTS SHOWING THE CAPACITY THAT OS ENERGY CONTROLS.
WHATEVER THEY DON'T CONTROL THEY HAVE TO BUY FROM ERCOT.
YOU HEARD THAT THERE'S SOME POWER BOUGHT FROM ERCOT AND SOME POWER SOLD TO ERCOT AND THE SHORTFALLS MADE UP FOR BY THE MARKETS BUYING POWER FROM ERCOT.
AND FAYETTE POWER PLANT IS A COAL PLANT.
OSS ENERGY IS A PART OWNER OF THAT IS SCHEDULED SAY TO TURN OFF IN 2032 BY THE EPA RULES AND THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION, BIDEN ADMINISTRATION BASICALLY HAS SAID WITH EPA, IF YOU WANT TO HAVE A COAL PLANT, THAT'S OKAY, BUT YOU'RE GONNA HAVE TO SCRUB IT FROM 2032 AND BEYOND.
AND FOR MOST COAL PLANTS THAT WON'T MAKE ECONOMIC SENSE, THEY'LL JUST SHUT DOWN.
SO PROBABLY FIT SHUTS DOWN BY 2032 IF THOSE RULES BECOME UH, BECOME LAW OF THE LAND.
SO WHO KNOWS HOW THAT WILL UH, SHAPE UP.
AND THEN A LOT OF LOCAL PREFERENCES SHUT DOWN SOONER.
SO WE SHOWED FAYETTE SHUTTING DOWN IN 29 OR 32, BUT NO MATTER WHEN FAYETTE SHUTS DOWN, THERE'S ALREADY A SHORTFALL.
THE SHORTFALL GETS BIGGER AS THE PPAS, THE POWER PURCHASE AGREEMENTS FOR WIND SOLAR ROLL OFF AS WELL.
SO THIS IS A CHALLENGE IF YOUR SUPPLY IS DROPPING, YOUR DEMAND'S GOING UP, YOU HAVE TO FILL THE MIX WITH SOMETHING EITHER BUYING FROM MARKET OR BUILDING YOUR OWN POWER PLANTS OR SOMETHING.
AND THAT'S WHERE WE ARE TODAY.
THERE ARE SOME OPTIONS FOR US ENERGY TO FILL THAT GAP TO MEET RESOURCE ADEQUACY.
RESOURCE ADVOCACY MEANS YOU HAVE AS MANY ELECTRONS AVAILABLE AS YOU NEED AND UH, YOU HEARD FROM BRANDON, SORT OF ONE WE THINK ABOUT IS THROUGH DOLLARS ANOTHER WAY THINK ABOUT'S THROUGH THE MEGAWATT HOURS OR KILOWATT HOURS.
AND YOU GOTTA BALANCE BOTH AT LEAST TO SOME DEGREE.
AND SO THERE ARE OPTIONS FOR US ENERGY TO SATISFY RESOURCE ADEQUACY REQUIREMENTS.
UM, WE'LL TALK ABOUT THE NON GENERATORS FIRST.
GENERATORS ARE THINGS THAT GENERATE ELECTRICITY, BUT NON GENERATION OPTIONS ARE ENERGY EFFICIENCY WE TALKED ABOUT.
THIS IS GREAT BECAUSE IT REDUCES THE NEED FOR ELECTRICITY.
BUT IN PARTICULAR IF WE THINK ABOUT BUILDING CODES AND MORE EFFICIENT HOMES, A MORE EFFICIENT MOMENTS LIKE BETTER INSTALLATION, UH, MAYBE WEATHER STRIPPING OR WHATEVER IT'S CALLED THESE DAYS AROUND DOORS AND UH, BETTER INSULATION OF THE WALLS AND AND TRIPLE PANE WINDOWS AND EVERYTHING ELSE.
THEN IF THERE'S A POWER OUTAGE LIKE WE HAD DURING WINTER STORM URI, THEN YOUR HOME STAYS COMFORTABLY AND UH, COMFORTABLE AND SAFE FOR LONGER.
SO THERE'S LESS RISK TO HUMAN HEALTH AND COMFORT.
OR IF THERE'S A HEAT DOME AND THE POWER GOES OUT, YOUR HOME WILL STAY COMFORTABLY COOL FOR LONGER AS WELL.
I FEEL LIKE I DO EVERYTHING WRONG AT MY PERSONAL LEVEL WHEN IT COMES TO MY ENERGY.
I LOSE HEAT IN THE WINTER AND LOSE COOLING IN THE SUMMER.
LIKE I, SO I DON'T KNOW WHAT HAPPENED LA WE LOST OUR AC DURING THE HEAT DOME LAST YEAR AND WE ALSO LOST OUR HEAT DURING THE FREEZE LAST YEAR.
SO I DON'T KNOW WHAT I'M DOING.
BUT HAVING AN INSULATED HOME MADE A BIG DIFFERENCE 'CAUSE OUR HOME WASN'T DEADLY AND DANGEROUS, IT WAS JUST KIND OF UNCOMFORTABLE.
WE DIDN'T HAVE HEATING AND COOLING.
SO EFFICIENCY REMAINS A VERY IMPORTANT OPTION FOR AUSTIN ENERGY IN A VARIETY OF WAYS.
ALSO, DEMAND RESPONSE IS IMPORTANT, ESPECIALLY IN THE RESIDENTIAL SECTOR.
THERE'S SOME DEMAND RESPONSE IN COMMERCIAL AND INDUSTRIAL, BUT WE DON'T HAVE A LOT OF INDUSTRIAL LOAD HERE.
BUT DEMAND RESPONSE MEANS TURNING THINGS OFF.
UH, AT TIMES YOU DON'T NEED THEM FOR EXAMPLE.
AND IN TERMS OF GRID BALANCING OR RESOURCE ADEQUACY, TURNING A LOAD OFF IS JUST AS GOOD AS TURNING UP SUPPLY ON.
YOU CAN EITHER TURN MORE POWER PLANTS ON OR TURN SOME LOADS OFF AND THERE'S SOME THINGS LIKE HOT WATER HEATERS OR POOL PUMPS.
YOU CAN ROTATE ON AND OFF IN A WAY THAT DOESN'T DO DAMAGE TO THE EQUIPMENT.
AND EVEN THE ESSENTIAL LOADS LIKE HEATING
[00:55:01]
AND COOLING, YOU CAN KIND OF ROTATE OFF MAYBE 10 MINUTES AN HOUR OR SOMETHING AND MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE AREA WIDE.IN FACT, AUSTIN ENERGY'S A LEADER IN SOME OF THIS WITH THE POWER PARTNERS PROGRAM AND HAS BEEN FOR A WHILE WITH ROTATING AIR CONDITIONS OFF.
BUT THERE'S AN OPPORTUNITY TO EXPAND THAT.
AND THEN YOU CAN ALSO USE BATTERIES OR OTHER STORAGE SYSTEMS WHICH ARE PRETTY HELPFUL.
THESE DAYS ARE LIMITED DURATION BATTERIES MIGHT BE TWO OR FOUR HOURS, BUT LONGER DURATION BATTERIES ARE COMING.
THERE'S ALSO OTHER WAYS TO STORE ENERGY FOR LONGER.
AT UT WE DO THERMAL ENERGY STORAGE.
WE CH WE STORE CHILLED WATER, WE MAKE CHILL WATER AT NIGHT AND THEN WE USE THAT CHILL WATER TO COOL THE BUILDINGS DURING THE DAY.
AND THAT HAS LIKE 10 HOURS OF DURATION.
SO WE DON'T USE LITHIUM BY BATTERIES BUT YOU CAN USE BATTERY.
THERE'S A LOT OF WAYS TO DO STORAGE AND ALL OF THESE ARE NOT GENERATING ELECTRICITY, BUT THEY HAVE SOME BENEFICIAL IMPACT ON THE GRID IN TERMS OF BALANCING SUPPLY AND DEMAND AND MAKING OUR LIVES SAFER, MORE COMFORTABLE.
YOU ALSO HAVE GENERATION OPTIONS.
RENEWABLES IN PARTICULAR ARE GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR TEXAS AND FOR AUSTIN ENERGY.
AND I WOULD RECOMMEND RENEWING THE EXISTING PPAS.
THESE POWER PURCHASE AGREEMENTS ARE OUT OF THE SERVICE AREA GENERALLY AND RENEWING THEM FOR WHEN SOLAR WOULD PROBABLY BE GOOD.
THERE MIGHT BE AN OPPORTUNITY TO REPOWER AND INCREASE THE POWER OUTPUT.
SO SOME OF THESE WIND FARMS ARE 20 YEARS OLD NOW YOU CAN USE THE TOWER AND THEN ON TOP OF THE TOWER IS THE WHAT'S CALLED THE NELLE AND THE BLADES.
YOU CAN KEEP THE TOWER, REPLACE THE THE POWERTRAIN AND THE BLADES AND GET MORE POWER OUTTA THE SAME LOCATION TODAY THAN WHAT WE DID 20 YEARS AGO.
SAME THING WITH SOLAR FARMS. IF YOU HAVE A SOLAR FARM, YOU HAVE SOLAR PANELS, THERE'S SOME DAMAGE FROM HAIL.
LIKE A COUPLE MONTHS AGO YOU MIGHT'VE SEEN THE SOLAR PANELS GET DAMAGED.
WELL THOSE SOLAR PANELS ARE NOW OFF THE SHELF MATERIAL SO YOU CAN REPLACE 'EM LIKE IN 10 DAYS OR WHATEVER IT TAKES.
AND SOMETIMES WHEN THEY PUT THE NEW PANELS IN THOSE SAME, THOSE NEW PANELS GENERATE MORE POWER IN THE AREA THAN THE OLD PANELS.
SO YOU CAN REPOWER EXISTING SITES AND MAYBE GET A LITTLE MORE BOOST OUT OF IT.
THAT'S ONE THING TO KEEP IN MIND.
HOWEVER, THE LAWS HAVE CHANGED.
UH, IN THE OLD DAYS, MEANING 20 YEARS AGO, UH, AUSTIN ENERGY WOULD NOT QUALIFY FOR THE TAX BENEFITS OF BUILDING WIND AND SOLAR FARMS. SO THEY NEGOTIATED THESE PPAS WHERE THE DEVELOPER WOULD GET THE TAX CREDIT AND PASS THE SAVINGS ONTO AUSTIN ENERGY.
BUT NOW AUSTIN ENERGY ACTUALLY HAS TAX TRANSFERABILITY CAN BENEFIT DIRECTLY FROM THE TAX CREDITS BECAUSE OF THE INFLATION REDUCTION ACT WHICH CHANGED THE LAW.
AUSTIN ENERGY MAYBE HAS AN OPTION TO BUILD AND OWN THE POWER PLANTS TODAY THAT WOULDN'T HAVE BEEN APPEALING 20 YEARS AGO.
AND THEN THERE'S AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOLAR IN THE AUSTIN ENERGY SERVICE AREA.
THE WIND RESOURCE IN AUSTIN'S PRETTY BAD BUT THE SOLAR RESOURCE IS PRETTY GOOD.
AND WE HAVE A LOT OF ROOFTOPS, ESPECIALLY FOR LIKE WAREHOUSES OR THESE DATA CENTERS OR COMMERCIAL LOCATIONS.
I'D SAY EVERY PARKING LOT SHOULD HAVE UM, SOLAR SHADING AND THERE ARE OTHER PLACES AS WELL.
AND THEN IT COULD ALSO CONSIDER EXPANDING SOLAR OUT SERVICE AREA BUT BE MINDFUL OF THE TRANSMISSION CONGESTION.
SO THESE ARE SOME OPTIONS FOR MORE SUPPLY AND THERE ARE ALSO OTHER SOURCES THAT CAN BE AVAILABLE THAT ARE DISPATCHABLE.
SO WIND AND SOLAR ARE REALLY CHEAP, REALLY CLEAN, DON'T REQUIRE WATER FOR COOLING.
UM, DISPATCHABLE MEANS YOU CAN TURN ON AS YOU NEED.
THERE ARE DISPATCHABLE OPTIONS AND WE WANT IT TO BE CLEAN.
AND THE DISPATCHABLE CARBON FREE GENERATION ARE THINGS LIKE GAS WITH CARBON CAPTURE OR REMOVAL SOMEWHERE OR GAS WITH FLEXIBLE FUEL, WHICH MAYBE COULD BE LIKE BIO METHANE OR HYDROGEN OR EVENTUALLY GO STRAIGHT TO HYDROGEN OR AMMONIA AT FA POWER PLANT.
THE COAL PLANT MAYBE COULD DO EITHER WOOD PELLETS OR WOOD PELLET BLENDING OR CARBON CAPTURE OR SOME MIX.
AND THEN EVENTUALLY YOU CAN CONSIDER THESE ARE FARTHER AWAY IN THE FUTURE.
SO THEY'RE NOT REALLY AVAILABLE TODAY IN AUSTIN ENERGY SERVICE AREA.
GEOTHERMAL FOR POWER GENERATION YOU CAN USE GEOTHERMAL FOR HEATING AND COOLING LIKE IT'S DONE IN WHISPER VALLEY, THE LOCAL SUBDIVISION.
OR YOU CAN USE GEOTHERMAL FOR POWER GENERATION.
AND THE POWER GENERATION OPPORTUNITY FOR GEOTHERMAL LOSS ENERGY IS NOT VERY CHEAP BECAUSE YOU HAVE TO DRILL PRETTY DEEP.
SO IF IT COSTS A LOT OF MONEY BUT MAYBE THE TECHNOLOGIES GET BETTER THERE AND GEOTHERMAL'S RENEWABLE 24 7, SUSTAINABLE CLEAN, LIKE IT'S REALLY GOOD, IT'S JUST EXPENSIVE IN AUSTIN.
NUCLEAR FISSION AND NUCLEAR FUSION ALSO FEEL FAR AWAY IN TERMS OF AFFORDABILITY AND ABILITY TO BUILD QUICKLY AND UH, OR TECHNOLOGY IMMATURITY LIKE UH, FUSION'S PRETTY NASCENT AS A TECHNOLOGY ALTHOUGH IF YOU BELIEVE THE FUSION PEOPLE, THEY SAY THEY'RE BUILDING POWER PLANTS BY 2028, WE SHALL SEE.
AND FISSION WE ALREADY HAVE STP NUCLEAR, IT'D BE HARD TO BUILD NUCLEAR IN AUSTIN I THINK SO MIGHT BE EASIER TO EXPAND THE NUCLEAR CAPACITY AT STP ON THE COAST.
AND THEN IN THE AUSTIN ENERGY SERVICE AREA, THIS IS KIND OF THE, THE SET OF OPTIONS.
I DIDN'T LIST HYDROELECTRIC 'CAUSE IT'S NOT A GREAT OPPORTUNITY FOR AUSTIN, BUT IN OTHER PLACES YOU MIGHT DO HYDROELECTRIC AS WELL.
SO THREE TYPES OF RESOURCES, NON GENERATORS, EFFICIENCY AND STORAGE AND DEMAND RESPONSE, THE VARIABLE WIND AND SOLAR AND THEN THE DISPATCHABLE, CARBON FREE OPTIONS.
THOSE ARE KIND OF THE THREE SETS OF OPTIONS YOU MIGHT PULL FROM, OTHERWISE YOU BUY FROM THE MARKETS WHICH YOU CAN ALSO DO.
YOU JUST GET EXPOSED TO PRICE VOLATILITY AND TRANSMISSION CONGESTION.
LET'S TALK UH, JUST A LITTLE BIT ABOUT SPECIAL CONSIDERATIONS FOR AUSTIN ENERGY.
UH, I THINK THAT FOR AUSTIN ENERGY IN PARTICULAR BUILDING DISPATCHABLE POWER WITHIN THE SERVICE ZONE, IT WOULD BE PRETTY INTERESTING BECAUSE IT REDUCES YOUR EXPOSURE TO THE PRICE VOLATILITY.
THE BULK GRID IN TEXAS IN GENERAL IS PRETTY CHEAP, WHICH IS GREAT.
HOWEVER, IT CAN HAVE SIGNIFICANT PRICE SPIKES, WHICH IS NOT GREAT.
[01:00:01]
SO JUST REDUCING YOUR EXPOSURE TO THAT VOLATILITY.AND I WOULD SAY EVEN THE OTHER WAY I'M LOOKING AT BRANDED, LIKE SELLING INTO THAT VOLATILITY MIGHT BE QUITE NICE, RIGHT? SO WHEN THE PRICE GO HIGH ELSEWHERE, BEING ABLE TO UM, GET SOME MONEY INTO THE, INTO THE LOCAL AREA WOULD BE GREAT.
MAYBE REDUCING YOUR EXPOSURE TO TRANSMISSION CONGESTION PRICING, WHICH I EXPECT WILL GET WORSE AS TIME GOES ON.
AND THEN ALSO IF YOU HAVE VOLTAGE CONTROL LOCALLY, THERE ARE A VARIETY OF WAYS TO DO THAT THAT CAN IMPROVE RELIABILITY.
SO DISPATCHABLE POWER IS GOOD, ESPECIALLY IF IT'S IN THE SERVICE ZONE.
ROTATING MACHINES, THESE ARE TURBINES THAT ROTATE LIKE GAS TURBINES, HYDROGEN TURBINES, COLD TURBINES, HYDROELECTRIC TURBINES, NUCLEAR TURBINES, THE STEAM TURBINES.
ROTATING MACHINES ARE PARTICULARLY VALUABLE FOR MANAGING VOLTAGE AND FREQUENCY.
WE DIDN'T REALLY TALK MUCH ABOUT THAT YET.
UM, THOSE ARE YOUR TYPICAL THERMAL POWER PLANTS.
BUT THERE'S ALSO THINGS CALLED SYNCHRONOUS CONDENSERS.
THERE ARE WAYS TO MANAGE VOLTAGE IN THE AUSTIN ENERGY SERVICE ZONE THAT WE NEED TO THINK ABOUT AS WELL, ESPECIALLY AS WE ADD MORE VARIABILITY.
AND THEN THE POWER PURCHASE AGREEMENTS I MENTIONED MIGHT NOT BE AS DESIRABLE TODAY BECAUSE AUSTIN ENERGY CAN JUST BUILD AND OWN THE POWER PLANTS MAYBE.
AND THEN MY VIEW IS MUNICIPAL UTILITIES OR MUNIS FOR SHORT ARE UNIQUELY POSITIONED TO ADDRESS THIS BECAUSE OF THE ABILITY TO BUILD AND OWN AND OPERATE AND DEAL WITH TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION.
LIKE WE'RE IN BETTER POSITION THAN A LOT OF OTHER PARTS OF TEXAS OR THE NATION.
I THINK BECAUSE OF HOW THE UTILITIES OWNED AND OPERATED, THAT'S MY VIEW.
WE CAN GET AHEAD OF THE CURVE.
WE'VE BEEN AHEAD OF THE CURVE ALREADY ON CLEAN ENERGY.
WE'VE BEEN AHEAD OF THE CURVE IN EFFICIENCY AND I THINK THAT'S PARTLY BECAUSE IT'S A MUNICIPAL UTILITY.
A LITTLE MORE UH, TO CONSIDER FOR AUSTIN ENERGY IS EQUITY.
I THINK VERLIN YOU TALKED ABOUT THAT WAS ONE OF THE PRIORITIES THAT CAME OUTTA THE LAST WORKSHOP.
THERE ARE A VARIETY OF EQUITY ISSUES TO KEEP IN MIND AND THE WAY I THINK ABOUT EQUITY IS WHO SUFFERS THE DOWNSIDE OF ENERGY AND WHO GETS THE UPSIDE BENEFITS OF THE ENERGY AND THE DOWNSIDES OF ENERGY TEND TO BE UM, THINGS LIKE FENCE LINE POLLUTION OR OTHER NUISANCES LIKE NOISE OR LIGHTS OR YOU GOTTA LOOK AT IT AND MAYBE IT'S UGLY OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT.
BUT THE GOOD STUFF IS ACCESS TO THE JOBS, HAVING ACCESS TO AFFORDABLE ELECTRICITY AND ACCESS TO RELIABLE ELECTRICITY.
SO IF WE ARE THOROUGH ABOUT OUR EQUITY CONSIDERATIONS, WE'LL CONSIDER ALL OF THESE HISTORICALLY EQUITY CONSIDERATIONS HAVE BEEN AROUND FENCE LINE POLLUTION THAT THE POLLUTION TENDS TO HIT MARGINALIZED COMMUNITIES THE MOST.
AND AS WE CLEAN UP THE FUEL MIX, THE THAT POLLUTION WILL GO DOWN AND THEN WE NEED TO MAKE SURE THAT UM, EVERYONE GETS ACCESS TO THE EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES OR JUST THE CHEAP ELECTRICITY.
WE CAN'T MAKE ELECTRICITY TOO EXPENSIVE OR UNRELIABLE, UNRELIABLE ELECTRICITY ESPECIALLY HITS MARGINALIZED COMMUNITIES THE HARDEST.
THEY'RE LEAST LIKELY TO HAVE AN EXTRA RANCH TO GO TO WHEN THE POWER GOES OUT OR A GENERATOR AND THAT KIND OF THING.
AND SO WE HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT ALL OF THESE ISSUES AT THE SAME TIME.
AND I MEAN MY VIEW ON THIS IS WE'LL SEE WITH ELECTRIC VEHICLES, UM, THE ELECTRIC VEHICLES ARE PARTICULARLY A GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR EQUITY BECAUSE WE TEND TO BUY GASOLINE FROM OUT OF SERVICE AREA OF REFINERS.
LIKE THERE'S NO REFINERY IN AUSTIN, SO WE'RE BUYING IT FROM VALERO OR EXXON MO, YOU NAME THE REFINERY, THEY'RE NOT IN AUSTIN.
SO WE ARE EMPLOYING PEOPLE ELSEWHERE BUT SUFFERING THE POLLUTION HERE FROM THE TAILPIPE.
AND IF WE GO TO ELECTRIC VEHICLES, WE NO LONGER HAVE THE POLLUTION, AT LEAST WE DON'T HAVE THE TAILPIPE POLLUTION.
WE MIGHT HAVE SMOKESTACK POLLUTION, BUT THOSE SMOKESTACKS TEND TO BE SOMEWHERE ELSE.
BUT THE ELECTRICITY'S BOUGHT LOCALLY SO IT'S VERY GOOD ECONOMICALLY TO SWITCH TO ELECTRIC VEHICLES AND GOOD ENVIRONMENTALLY AND IT'S JUST LIKE LESS NOISY AND ALL THIS KIND OF STUFF.
SO I REALLY LIKE ELECTRIC VEHICLES ARE VERY HERE AND NOW OPPORTUNITY TO IMPROVE THE EQUITY SITUATION FROM OUR ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN AUSTIN.
AND THE POLLUTION TRADE-OFFS ARE NON-OBVIOUS.
SO, UH, LET ME MAKE THIS ONE POINT BASED ON SOME RESEARCH WE PUBLISHED QUITE SOME TIME AGO.
UH, MY TEAM TOGETHER WITH DAVE ALLEN, SOME OF YOU MIGHT KNOW IS THAT AN ELECTRIC CAR, EVEN IF IT'S CHARGED OFF A COAL PLANT, IS STILL CLEANER THAN A GASOLINE CAR.
THE COAL PLANTS EMISSIONS ARE NOT AS BAD AS THE GASOLINE EMISSIONS.
FIRST OF ALL, THE QUANTITY OF EMISSIONS IS LOWER, BUT ALSO THE LOCATION AND THE TIME OF DAY AND THE ALTITUDE IS DIFFERENT.
SO LET'S TAKE A RURAL SMOKE STACK, FAYETTE POWER PLANT, A COAL-FIRED POWER PLANT.
THE SMOKE STACK IS, I DUNNO WHAT, 500 FEET TALL OR WHATEVER IT IS THAT POLLUTION IS AT NIGHT FROM CHARGING YOUR CAR IN A RURAL AREA WHERE THERE ARE FEW PEOPLE TO BREATHE IN THE POLLUTION AND AT A HIGHER ALTITUDE.
SO IT MIXES THE ATMOSPHERE AND DISPERSES MORE QUICKLY.
BUT BECAUSE IT'S AT NIGHT, IT DOESN'T HAVE PHOTONS BECAUSE THERE'S NO SUNLIGHT.
SO YOU DON'T GET PHOTOCHEMICAL SMOG.
BY CONTRAST, A GASOLINE TAILPIPE IS AT GROUND LEVEL DURING THE DAY WHEN IT'S GOT SUNLIGHT OUT AND WE ARE BREATHING IT IN IN AN URBAN AREA WITH A LOT OF PEOPLE.
SO SHIFTING FROM AN URBAN GROUND LEVEL, DAYTIME SMOKES OR TAILPIPE, UH, FROM THAT TO A NIGHTTIME RURAL COAL-FIRED SMOKE STACK IS AN IMPROVEMENT.
NOW IMAGINE REPLACING THAT COAL WITH NATURAL GAS OR WIND SOLAR GETS EVEN BETTER.
SO THERE'S SOME TRADE-OFFS IN TERMS OF WHO BREEDS IN THE POLLUTION AND HOW MUCH POLLUTION THERE IS.
NOT THAT I WANT TO POLLUTE OTHER PEOPLE, BUT THE IN TERMS OF NUMBER OF PEOPLE WHO ARE EXPOSED AND WHO'S GETTING THE MONEY, THERE'S A LOT OF BENEFITS FROM ELECTRIFYING OUR LOADS, ESPECIALLY SINCE WE HAVE ELECT A LOCAL ELECTRIC SELLER SO TO SPEAK.
SO THIS IS RESEARCH THAT'S WELL KNOWN IN THE RESEARCH COMMUNITY ABOUT THE TRADE-OFFS ON THE AIR QUALITY IMPACTS.
IN SUMMARY, I'LL SAY THAT UTILITIES NEED TO PREPARE FOR AN ERROR OF UNPRECEDENTED GROWTH IN ELECTRICITY.
UH, WE HAD ABOUT A HUNDRED YEARS OF GROWTH IN THE POWER SECTOR THAN 20 YEARS OF FLAT.
NOW WE'RE ABOUT TO GO THROUGH MORE
[01:05:01]
GROWTH AND THIS GROWTH WE'RE GOING THROUGH IS FASTER THAN WHAT WE EXPERIENCED A HUNDRED YEARS AGO.AND SO I THINK THAT'S PRETTY EXCITING.
AS A CONSEQUENCE, AUSTIN ENERGY SHOULD CONSIDER A WHOLE RANGE OF RESOURCES FOR SUPPLY AND DEMAND TO MINIMIZE THEIR EXPOSURE TO PRICE VOLATILITY AND TRANSMISSION CONGESTION.
AND THERE'S A VARIETY OF GENERATION OPTIONS LISTED HERE AND A VARIETY OF EFFICIENCY AND DEMAND RESPONSES, STORAGE TO THINGS WE CAN CONSIDER.
AND THAT ELECTRIFICATION OF VEHICLES AND HEAT WILL HAVE A LOT OF BENEFITS TO THE LOCAL AREA.
AND I WOULD SAY THAT COMING BACK TO DAVE TUTTLE'S QUESTION EARLIER, IF WE DO IT THE RIGHT WAY, IT ACTUALLY IMPROVES THE FINANCIAL HEALTH UTILITY, WHICH THEREFORE PROVIDES FINANCIAL BENEFITS TO THE CITY OF AUSTIN.
'CAUSE THE CITY OF AUSTIN OWNS UTILITY.
SO IT CAN MAYBE LOWER OUR COSTS OF LIFE HERE IN AUSTIN IN A VARIETY OF WAYS.
AND THEN MY LAST POINT, THIS IS WHEN I TEACH A SEMESTER LONG CLASS, I WAS LIKE THE LENS OF ENERGY IS TRADE-OFFS.
THERE IS NO FORM OF ENERGY THAT'S ALL BAD OR ALL GOOD.
WE HAVE TO MANAGE THE MIX TO OPTIMIZE AROUND RELIABILITY, AFFORDABILITY, ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT IN THAT KIND OF THING.
SO I DON'T KNOW WHAT MY TIMING WAS.
DID I GO WAY TOO LONG OR WAY TOO SHORT? NOPE.
ALRIGHT, FIRST OF ALL, LUKE, STAND UP.
WHAT'S YOUR SHIRT SAY? AND THAT, I MEAN, HOW LONG HAVE YOU HAD THAT SHIRT? THREE OR FOUR YEARS.
SO I'LL SEE THE SHIRTS ON TOWN LAKE, I'LL SEE, I CALL IT TOWN LAKE LADY.
SO I'LL SEE THOSE SHIRTS ALL AROUND TOWN AND THAT'S LIKE, I, I THINK LIKE IT'S ELECTRIC IS BETTER THAN GAS.
UH, I WOULD JUST SAY BETTER THAN GASOLINE ESPECIALLY, BUT IT'S ESPECIALLY TRUE IN AUSTIN AND ESPECIALLY TRUE WITH CARS, THAT'S WHAT WE'RE LOOKING FOR.
ELECTRICITY IS BETTER THAN GAS.
JUST THERE, I'M GONNA TRY TO GO FROM TABLE TO TABLE WITH SOME QUESTIONS.
CARISSA, I KNOW THAT YOU ARE GOT, WE'VE ALREADY GOT TWO QUESTIONS OFF OF THAT, SO I PROMISE I'LL POP BACK TO YOU IN A SECOND.
I SAW ONE QUESTION FROM TIFFANY ABOUT DEMAND RESPONSE, BUT I TRIED TO ANSWER IT SO I DON'T KNOW IF THAT'S NOT THERE OR NOT.
UM, ASK TIFFANY IF THE DEMAND RESPONSE STILL NEEDS TO HAPPEN AND THEN WHO NE WHO HAS A QUESTION? I THINK LUKE, YOU DID HAVE A QUESTION, SO GO AHEAD AND OH, FIRST OF ALL, OKAY, THERE ARE MICS ON YOUR TABLE.
THEY'RE NOT CONNECTED, THEY'RE WIRELESS.
WE CANNOT HAVE MORE THAN THREE RED BUTTONS OPEN, SO TURN IT OFF AS SOON AS YOU'RE DONE.
SO FIRST, UH, ON YOUR OPTIONS FOR, UH, ADDITIONAL RENEWABLE GENERATION, I DON'T THINK YOU INCLUDED AUSTIN ENERGY'S BUILDING ITS OWN, YOU KNOW, UH, WEST OR SOUTH TEXAS WIND OR SOLAR.
I'M CURIOUS WHY, WHY YOU LEFT THAT OFF.
SO I I DID NOT TRY TO IMPLY THAT THAT CAN'T BE DONE.
ABSOLUTELY THAT COULD BE DONE.
AND THEN SECOND QUESTION THEN IS, UH, WHAT, WHAT ARE YOUR RECOMMENDATIONS, WHAT DO YOU THINK AUSTIN ENERGY SHOULD DO FOR ITS GENERATION PLANT? THAT'S A GREAT QUESTION.
SO, UM, SO ABSOLUTELY THE OUTER AREA, WIND AND SOLAR RENEWING THE PPAS ARE BUILDING THEIR OWN.
I THINK THAT'S WHERE THE RESOURCE IS RICHEST.
SO YOU CAN DO THE LARGE FARMS, ESPECIALLY IN WIND AND SOLAR BECAUSE THEY'RE OUT A PHASE OF EACH OTHER COMBINED ARE PRETTY USEFUL FOR AUSTIN.
SO I LIKE THE, THE LARGE OUTTA SERVICE AREA IN TERMS OF THE ABILITY TO ACHIEVE SCALE AND LOW COST.
BUT THEN YOU HAVE ALL THIS TRANSMISSION PROBLEM.
SO I'D LOVE TO SEE SOME MORE OF THAT, BUT A LOT MORE IN SERVICE AREA, ROOFTOP SOLAR, ESPECIALLY COMMERCIAL ROOFTOP I THINK IN EVERY PARKING LOT.
I MEAN I, WHEN I SEE A PARKING LOT WITHOUT SOLAR, I'M LIKE, WHAT A MISSED OPPORTUNITY.
SO THAT'S ESPECIALLY GOOD OPPORTUNITY HERE.
I WOULD LOVE TO SEE MORE BATTERIES IN DEMAND RESPONSE.
WE DID A STUDY WITH AUSTIN ENERGY A YEAR AGO.
I LOOKED AT THE OPPORTUNITY FOR LIKE ONE MEGAWATT BATTERIES AT EVERY SUBSTATION AND THOSE BATTERIES PAY FOR THEMSELVES.
SO IF YOU HAVE A LOT OF STORAGE SPREAD AROUND THE SUBSTATIONS, I THINK THAT'S A GOOD IDEA.
I WOULD LOVE TO SEE SOME DISPATCHABLE GENERATION FOR THOSE STRETCHES WHEN IT'S NEITHER SUNNY NOR WINDY.
AND WE HAVE A FEW OF THEM PER YEAR IN TEXAS WHERE YOU HAVE LIKE THREE DAYS OR SEVEN DAYS OR NINE DAYS, IT'S NEITHER WINDY OR SUNNY.
SO HAVING SOME LOW CAPACITY FACTOR THERMAL RESOURCES WHERE YOU USE 'EM LIKE 4% OF THE YEAR OR SOMETHING, PROBABLY PRETTY HANDY.
AND PROBABLY THAT'S GAS WITH CARBON CAPTURE OR HYDROGEN OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT.
SO SOME MIX OF RESOURCES CAN BE GOOD.
UH, THE TECHNO OPTIMIST TO ME WOULD LOVE TO HAVE SOME FUSION AND FISSION SOMEDAY, BUT I DON'T THINK THAT'S A WIDELY HELD VIEW IN THE AUSTIN ENERGY SERVICE AREA THAT THOSE MIGHT BE WAY TOO SLOW AND EXPENSIVE.
SO I I I THINK THOSE ARE NOT OPTIONS BETWEEN NOW AND 2040, BUT MAYBE BEYOND 2040 OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT.
SO I SEE A MIX OF THINGS, UM, TO GET THERE AND I FRANKLY I'D LIKE TO SEE MORE GROWTH IN POWER DEMAND IF IT'S BEING USED TO TURN OFF GASOLINE OR SOMETHING LIKE I THINK THAT'D BE REALLY GOOD FOR US.
SO A MIX OF ALL OF THOSE, I'D SAY.
UM, SO TALKING ABOUT NET ZERO VERSUS LIKE CARBON FREE, I KNOW THAT UM, CARBON MANAGEMENT IS A BIG THING.
SO HOW DO YOU TALK TO PEOPLE ABOUT, UM, CARBON CAPTURE, LIKE DIRECT SOURCE CAPTURE OR LIKE DIRECT AIR CAPTURE? LIKE WHAT DO YOU SAY TO CRITICS OF IT? BECAUSE I KNOW THERE'S A LOT OF PEOPLE WHO THINK IT'S TOO EXPENSIVE OR IT'S LIKE BAD FOR THE ENVIRONMENT 'CAUSE YOU HAVE TO DRILL INTO THE GROUND TO PUT THE CARBON INTO UM, THE ROCK.
SO LIKE WHAT'S YOUR ELEVATOR PITCH FOR THE I, THE WAY I THINK ABOUT IT IS GASEOUS WASTE IS NOT SO DIFFERENT THAN LIQUID WASTE.
LIKE OUR SEWAGE OR OUR SOLID WASTE LIKE TRASH.
[01:10:01]
REUSE, RECYCLE, THAT'S KIND OF WHAT YOU DO.LIKE YOU SHOULD FIRST REDUCE HOW MUCH WASTE YOU GENERATE, THEN REUSE WHATEVER YOU CAN THEN RECYCLE IT AND RECYCLE ONES MAYBE A FORM OF REUSE AND THE LAST THING YOU WANNA DO IS LANDFILL.
AND WE'VE ALREADY DONE THAT WITH SOLID WASTE.
LIKE OUR, OUR, WE HAVEN'T SOLVED OF A SOLID WASTE, BUT WE'RE BETTER NOW THAN WE USED TO BE SAY IN THE 1970S WHERE WE SHOULDN'T GENERATE SO MUCH SOLID WASTE.
LET'S REDUCE OUR PACKAGING, LET'S REDUCE HOW MANY MATERIALS WE'RE USING, THEN LET'S, UM, REUSE THEM.
IF WE CAN REUSE THE SHOPPING BAGS OR WHATEVER IT IS, THEN RECYCLE AND THEN LANDFILL IS YOUR LAST OPTION.
I THINK THE SAME IS TRUE WITH CO2.
LET'S REDUCE OUR EMISSIONS, LET'S REUSE THAT CO2, WE CAN USE THAT CO2 AS A BUILDING BLOCK FOR FUELS OR DRYWALL OR AGGREGATE AND CEMENT AND OTHER THINGS.
AND THEN LAND FILLING THE CO2 IS THE LEAST PREFERRED OPTION, BUT IS AN OPTION.
AND THE LANDFILL, THAT'S THE SAME AS SEQUESTRATION DRILLING DOWN AND INJECTING THE CO2 TO MIX WITH THE ROCK OR BASALT OR AQUIFER, WHATEVER IT IS.
SO I THINK THAT SEQUESTRATION OR LANDFILL AND CO2 IS AN OPTION, BUT IT'S THE LAST OPTION.
WE SHOULD DO THE OTHER THINGS FIRST AND IT'S THE LAST OPTION PARTLY BECAUSE IT IS EXPENSIVE.
NOW IT'S CHEAP IN TEXAS TO LANDFILL IT COSTS, I KNOW 20 BUCKS A TON TO LANDFILL, YOU'RE SOLID WASTE.
BUT IN EUROPE IT'S LIKE 85 BUCKS A TON.
SO THEY USE THE WASTE DIFFERENTLY 'CAUSE IT'S EXPENSIVE TO DISPOSE OF IT.
AND I THINK, UM, THAT WILL BE TRUE FOR US WITH CARBON.
IF WE LOOK AT POINT SOURCE CARBON CAPTURE, CAPTURING THE CO2 AT A SMOKESTACK VERSUS DIRECT, DIRECT CAPTURE, REMOVING IT FROM THE ATMOSPHERE AS A WHOLE.
THE ATMOSPHERE IS ABOUT 0.04% CO2, BUT THE CO2 AT A GAS, NATURAL GAS POWERPOINT SMOKE STACK MIGHT BE 4% OR SOMETHING.
SO IT'S A LOT EASIER TO CAPTURE AT THE GAS SMOKESTACK THAN THE ATMOSPHERE AS A WHOLE.
A COAL SMOKE STACKS EVEN HIGHER FRACTION.
SO IT'S EVEN EASIER TO CAPTURE THE COAL PLANT, BUT MOST PEOPLE DON'T WANT COAL.
IF YOU'RE SERIOUS ABOUT CARBON, YOU WOULDN'T HAVE A COAL PLANT.
SO COAL CARBON CAPTURE MIGHT NOT MAKE SENSE.
SO CARBON CAPTURE AT THE POINT PROBABLY DOES MAKE SENSE THOUGH IS CEMENT AND STEEL AND CHEMICAL FACTORIES, PLACES WHERE YOU HAVE REALLY HIGH CONCENTRATIONS OF CO2 AND IT'S HARDER TO ABATE.
SO I THINK WE'LL HAVE A MIX OF POINT SOURCE CARBON CAPTURE AT THOSE BIG FACTORIES OR SMELTERS OR WHEREVER IT IS WHERE IT'S HARD TO DISPLACE THE CO2 ENTIRELY.
AND THEN WE'LL USE DIRECTOR CAPTURE REMOVALS FOR SOME OF THE PLACES WHERE YOU HAVE LOWER CONCENTRATIONS.
I DID GET TO VISIT THE DIRECTOR CAPTURE CARBON REMOVAL SITE IN ICELAND A COUPLE YEARS AGO AT THE, WHERE THEY'RE ACTUALLY BUILDING A SYSTEM TO VACUUM THE SKY.
VACUUMING THE SKY SOUNDS RIDICULOUS, BUT THEY'RE DOING IT.
IT COSTS ABOUT A THOUSAND DOLLARS A TON.
THE COSTS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN TO ABOUT 600 BUCKS A TON.
AND NOW LATEST BIDS I SAW, I DON'T KNOW IF THEY'RE REAL, BUT THEY'RE LIKE 400 BUCKS A TON.
AND SO IT'S POSSIBLE DIRECTOR OF CAPTURE WILL DROP LIKE BATTERIES AND SOLAR, WHICH MEANS LIKE DROP LIKE 95% IN 10 TO 20 YEARS, WHICH MEANS IT'LL GO FROM A THOUSAND DOLLARS A TON DOWN TO LIKE 50 TO A HUNDRED BUCKS A TON.
AND IF YOU'RE LIKE 50 BUCKS TO A HUNDRED BUCKS A TON TO DO CARBON RULES, OKAY, NOW WE'RE IN BUSINESS.
LIKE YOU CAN DO A LOT OF THINGS WITH THAT POTENTIALLY.
SO WE'LL SEE WHAT THE COST CURVES GO.
LIKE, UH, I I AM PRONE TO TECHNO OPTIMISM, WHICH I GET TOO ENTHUSIASTIC AT THE PACE OF TECHNOLOGICAL LEARNING AND CAN BE CAUGHT BY SURPRISE SOMETIMES.
BUT I THINK THAT COSTS WILL COME DOWN AND REMAINS AN OPTION.
BUT EVEN IF COSTS COME DOWN, IT'LL BE CHEAPER TO AVOID THE EMISSIONS IN THE FIRST PLACE THAN THE CLEANED UP LATER.
GREAT QUESTION, CARISSA, WE'RE GOING TO ONLINE.
THERE ARE SEVERAL QUESTIONS THAT UM, AND I CAN REPEAT THE QUESTION SO I DON'T THINK YOU HAVE A MIC.
SO, UM, UM, SO A FEW QUESTIONS THAT WE'VE GOT FROM THE WEB PARTICIPANT PARTICIPANTS.
UM, SO ONE PERSON WAS CURIOUS ABOUT SPECIFICALLY HOW MUCH DEMAND RESPONSE CAN AUSTIN ENERGY PLAY WITH ON EV AND OTHER DERS.
UM, THEY'RE CURIOUS WHAT AUSTIN ENERGY IS DOING TO PREPARE FOR CONTROLLING DEVICES.
I CAN'T ANSWER THE SECOND QUESTION, BUT THE FIRST QUESTION.
AUSTIN ENERGY'S HAD A DEMAND RESPONSE PROGRAM FOR QUITE SOME TIME THROUGH THE POWER PARTNERS PROGRAM AND I'M A MEMBER OF IT WHERE YOUR THERMOSTAT CAN BE CONTROLLED TO ROTATE OFF YOUR AIR CONDITION 10 MINUTES AN HOUR OR WHATEVER IT IS TO, TO REDUCE THE DEMAND ON THE GRID.
AND I BELIEVE, I GUESS LIKE 80 MEGAWATTS OR SOMETHING.
SO IT'S A NON-TRIVIAL AMOUNT OF DEMAND RESPONSE THAT IS AVAILABLE FROM THE EXISTING PROGRAM.
UM, LISA HAS HEARD ME SAY THAT I SAY TO BOB CONDOS, I THINK THERE'S HUNDREDS OF MEGAWATTS OF OPPORTUNITY FOR DEMAND RESPONSE IF WE REALLY RAMP UP ON JUST AIR CONDITIONERS ALONE.
IF YOU RAMP UP ON SMART CHARGING MANAGEMENT SOMEDAY WE MIGHT HAVE THOUSANDS OF MEGAWATTS OF DEMAND FOR EVS THAT IF WE SMARTLY MANAGE WE'LL BE ON THE ORDER OF TENS TO HUNDREDS OF MEGAWATTS.
'CAUSE WE CAN REDUCE IT A LOT.
SO THE DEMAND RESPONSE OPPORTUNITY WILL GO UP AS WE GET MORE ELECTRIC VEHICLES POTENTIALLY, BUT IT WILL REQUIRE, UM, SMART MANAGEMENT OR SMART CONTROLS OR SOMETHING.
AND, AND I DON'T KNOW WHAT ALL SYN IS DOING ON THAT, BUT I DUNNO, LISA OR SOMEONE ELSE HAS AN ANSWER ON THAT.
WE'LL BRING YOU SOME MORE INFORMATION.
WE'LL TAKE THAT AS AN ACTION ITEM.
I'LL GO BECAUSE I KEEP FORGETTING THE ONLINE PEOPLE.
I'M GONNA ASK A SECOND QUESTION THEN I'LL MOVE TO ANOTHER TABLE.
OKAY, YEAH, WE DO HAVE SEVERAL, BUT I'M HAPPY TO KIND OF, IF WE CAN GO AROUND THE ROOM.
SO ANOTHER ONE WE'VE GOT IS REGARDING ELECTRIFICATION.
UM, HOW DOES AUSTIN ENERGY FORECAST HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL ELECTRICITY WILL BE NEEDED WITH EVS AND TRANSITIONING FROM
[01:15:01]
GAS HEATERS TO ELECTRIC HEAT PUMPS? THAT IS GREAT.SO WE, WE DON'T KNOW WHAT AUSTIN ENERGY HAS FORECAST, BUT SOMEONE MIGHT HAVE AN ANSWER FOR, IS THAT A MODEL THAT WE'RE GONNA BE TALKING ABOUT IN THE FOURTH MEETING? ALL RIGHT.
LISA'S COMING UP HERE TO ANSWER THAT ONE.
YES, SO WELL, SO, UM, WHEN WE DO OUR, UH, MODELING, A LOT OF IT IS BASED OFF OF HISTORIC AND BASED OFF OF FORECASTING.
AND, UM, WHAT WE DO FOR TAKING INTO ACCOUNT WHAT'S GONNA HAPPEN WITH REGARDS TO ELECTRIFICATION IS, UM, WE HAVE KINDA A BASE, UM, FORECAST WHICH IS USED FOR OUR RATE MAKING SITUATIONS.
AND THEN WHEN WE DO MODELING, WE USE SENSITIVITIES TO DO EXTREME CASES.
WHAT HAPPENS IF THERE'S A LOT MORE ELECTRIFICATION THAN WE EXPECT, OR A LOT MORE HOME HEATING THAN WE EXPECT.
ALL RIGHT, I'M GONNA MOVE TO, BUT I I WOULD EXPECT THAT YOUR ANALYSIS, LIKE EVERYONE'S WILL SHOW GROWTH.
LIKE IT'S JUST, IT MIGHT BE, UH, PEOPLE AGREE ON DIFFERENT LEVELS OF GROWTH OR DON'T AGREE, BUT THERE'LL BE GROWTH FOR SURE.
ALL RIGHT, I'M LOOKING TO THIS SIDE OF THE ROOM QUESTIONS OVER HERE.
ONE IS, UH, I NOTICED THAT UH, BATTERIES WERE NOT LISTED UNDER THE SLIDE OF LIKE DISPATCHABLE SOURCES FOR POWER.
SO I WANTED TO GET YOUR THOUGHTS ON, UH, THAT UH, IN THE AUSTIN ENERGY SERVICE TERRITORY.
UH, AND THEN I WANTED TO ASK ABOUT THE SLIDE WHERE BASICALLY YOU'RE SHOWING THE SORT OF PEAK SHAVING FROM EV CHARGING.
AND SO WHAT KIND OF POLICIES WOULD, WHAT THAT LIKE, WOULD THAT BE SOME OF USE RATES OR OTHER THINGS? THAT'S GREAT.
SO I HAVE BATTERIES LISTED HERE UNDER NON GENERATORS.
THEY DON'T REALLY GENERATE POWER, THEY JUST STORE THE POWER THAT IS GENERATED BY SOMETHING ELSE.
SO THAT'S THE WAY I THINK OF IT.
SO THEY'RE VERY, THEY'RE A VERY IMPORTANT TOOL IN THE TOOLBOX.
SO BATTERIES OR OTHER FORMS OF STORAGE, WHICH COULD BE THE CHILL WATER STORAGE, LIKE UT DOES PHASE CHANGE MATERIALS.
YOU CAN STORE STEAM, YOU CAN DO MOLTEN SALT.
THERE'S A LOT OF WAYS TO STORE ENERGY.
BATTERIES ARE THE MOST TYPICAL WAY TODAY.
UM, BUT THERE ARE OTHER OPTIONS AND THAT ISN'T AN ORIGINAL SOURCE OF ELECTRICITY.
YOU STILL HAVE TO MEET THE ELECTRICITY FROM SOMETHING ELSE FIRST AND THEN YOU SORT BATTERY.
SO THAT'S WHY I LISTED UNDER NON GENERATORS.
BUT I THINK WE'RE GONNA NEED A LOT, I THINK WE'LL NEED HUNDREDS OF MEGAWATTS OR WHATEVER THE NUMBER IS IN LOSS ENERGY SERVICE AREA.
AND IF YOU LOOK AT ERCOT, ERCOT IS KIND OF A PREDICTOR OF WHAT'S HAPPENING.
THE GROWTH TODAY IN NEW SOURCES, PRIMARILY AS SOLAR AND BATTERIES TOGETHER, THE BATTERIES TO STORE THE SOLAR AND WE ALREADY BUILT THE WIND WIND'S STILL GROWING BUT WIND'S NOT GROWING AS FAST AS IT WAS SAY A DECADE AGO.
BUT SOLAR AND BATTERIES ARE, ARE GROWING AND SO I, I DON'T THINK OF IT AS A SOURCE, I THINK OF IT AS A STORAGE MECHANISM, BUT IT, IT'S AN IMPORTANT TOOL WITHOUT A DOUBT.
SO COULD WE FOR EXAMPLE, USE UH, YOU KNOW, UTILITY SCALE BATTERY, CHARGE IT AT NIGHT AND THEN DISPATCH IT, UH, DURING, YOU KNOW, PEAKS OR WHENEVER AND YOU KNOW, AND THEN NOT NEED TO BUILD A NEW POWER PLANT FOR EXAMPLE? YES.
SO YOU, WELL ABSOLUTELY YOU CAN USE BATTERIES TO STORE SOLAR OR WIND OR WHATEVER YOU WANT.
UM, YOU CAN USE THE STORE NUCLEAR.
SO ONE OF THE BIG PROPONENTS OF STORAGE THESE DAYS ARE NUCLEAR PEOPLE WHO HAVE TROUBLE DIALING DOWN AT NIGHT.
SO THEY MIGHT WANNA USE BATTERIES OR SOMETHING TO UM, TO ACCUMULATE THE ENERGY THEN RELEASE IT LATER.
SO BATTERIES ARE DISPATCHABLE, I I THINK OF THEM AS A DISPATCHABLE RESOURCE BUT NOT A DISPATCHABLE GENERATOR.
BUT IT MIGHT BE JUST A SEMANTIC THING LIKE OTHER PEOPLE MIGHT LIST IT ON THIS SLIDE, BUT I LISTED ON THE OTHER SLIDE.
BUT STORAGE IS IMPORTANT USING THE BATTERIES TO STORE THE SOLAR OR WIND IN PARTICULAR.
BATTERIES ARE A GREAT FIT FOR WIND AND SOLAR.
I WOULD SAY IT MAKES A LOT OF ECONOMIC SENSE AND I THINK WE WILL DO A LOT OF THAT.
UM, BUT YOU WOULD STILL HAVE TO BUILD THE SOLAR POWER PLANT OR THE WIND PLANT AND WE HAVE GOT WIND, SOME WIND AND SOLAR BUILT.
BUT IF SOME POINT WE'LL HAVE TO BUILD EVEN MORE WIND AND SOLAR.
THE OTHER THING TO KEEP IN MIND IS THE DURATION OF THE STORAGE.
TYPICAL BATTERIES TODAY ARE TWO TO FOUR HOURS OF STORAGE.
IT'S NOT THAT HARD TO BUILD EIGHT HOURS OF STORAGE.
THERE ARE NEW BATTERY CHEMISTRIES BEYOND LITHIUM ION LIKE UH, IRON AIR BATTERIES THAT WILL DO A HUNDRED HOURS OF STORAGE AND YOU START TO NEED MULTI-DAY STORAGE FOR THOSE.
IT'S RARE BUT A FEW TIMES A YEAR WHERE YOU DON'T HAVE WIND OR SUNSHINE, YOU NEED SOMETHING.
AND SO THAT COULD BE REALLY LONG DURATION STORAGE OR THAT'S WHERE YOU COULD HAVE THESE OTHER OPTIONS.
UH, UH, A POWER PLANT THAT'S MOSTLY IDLE THAT YOU WOULD TURN ON THOSE FEW TIMES.
AND THEN YOU HAD ANOTHER QUESTION ABOUT THE ELECTRIC VEHICLES I THINK AS WELL.
YEAH, ABOUT HOW THERE ARE A LOT OF WAYS YOU CAN DO IT, BUT TIME OF USE RATES IS ONE WAY TO DO IT.
UH, THEY'VE HAD TIME OF USE RATES IN ENGLAND FOR LIKE 20 YEARS WHERE PEOPLE, UH, WHEN THEY LOAD THEIR DISHES, THEY HIT TWO HOUR DELAY.
THIS LITTLE BUTTON SAYS TWO HOUR DELAY FOR YOUR DISHWASHER.
SO IT DOESN'T START TILL AFTER 10:00 PM 'CAUSE THE RATES DROP A LOT.
SO HAVING THAT BUILT INTO A CAR CHARGER AND MOST CAR CHARGERS HAVE THIS CAPABILITY, I HAVE IT.
I'M ONE OF THOSE LAZY PEOPLE PLUGGING AT 5:00 PM SO I'M PART OF THE PROBLEM, BUT I SHOULD HAVE A BUTTON RIGHT THERE THAT SAYS TWO HOUR DELAY, FOUR HOUR DELAY.
OR MAYBE I GET AN ALERT THAT SAYS, ARE YOU SURE YOU WANT TO CHARGE NOW IT'S GONNA COST YOU 10 BUCKS BUT IF YOU CHARGE LATER IT'LL BE SUPER CHEAP OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT.
SO THERE, THERE ARE A VARIETY OF WAYS TO GET THERE WITH TIME OF USE RATES OR CONTROLS WHERE IT'S JUST PROHIBITED OR YOU
[01:20:01]
CANNOT CHARGE AND YOU HAVE TO OVERRIDE IT.SAY YES I HAVE TO CHARGE 'CAUSE I HAVE SOME IMPORTANT REASON WHY I NEED TO CHARGE NOW, OTHERWISE THE DEFAULT SHOULD BE LATE AT NIGHT.
I THINK DEFAULT SETTINGS WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT AND THERE ARE A LOT OF POLICY OPTIONS FOR US ENERGY ON HOW TO IMPLEMENT THAT.
ALL RIGHT, WE'RE GONNA GET A FERDINAND AND THEN BACK TO CARISSA.
UM, MY QUESTION IS, UH, HYDROGEN UH, IN THE FUTURE HOW THAT FITS IN THE BIG PICTURE? GREAT QUESTION ABOUT HYDROGEN.
SO HYDROGEN HISTORICALLY HAS BEEN THOUGHT OF AS AN ENERGY CARRIER.
SO YOU START WITH ENERGY IN THE FORM OF ELECTRICITY OR IN METHANE AND YOU CAN USE THAT ELECTRICITY OR METHANE TO MAKE HYDROGEN, WHICH THEN YOU COULD USE TO STORE ENERGY.
SO IF YOU COULD STORE ENERGY IN A BATTERY, YOU COULD ALSO STORE IT IN A CHEMICAL FORM, A FUEL FORM LIKE HYDROGEN AND THEN YOU CAN USE A HYDROGEN IN MANY WAYS.
ONCE YOU HAVE HYDROGEN, YOU CAN GET HEAT OR ELECTRICITY OR MOTION OR CHEMICALS, HYDROGEN'S A GREAT FUEL, YOU CAN MAKE WHATEVER YOU WANT WITH IT.
IT'S JUST HARD TO MAKE, MOVE AND STORE.
SO A LOT OF THE RESEARCH WORLD IS HOW TO MAKE HYDROGEN, HOW TO MOVE IT MAYBE IN PIPELINES OR CARRIERS OR LIQUIFIED OR WHATEVER IT IS OR HOW TO STORE IT.
SO HYDROGEN'S GOT A LOT OF BENEFITS BUT IT HAS THOSE CHALLENGES.
UH, TODAY MOST OF THE NEWS IS AROUND USING ELECTRICITY AND WATER ELECTROLYSIS USING ELECTRICITY TO SPLIT WATER TO MAKE HYDROGEN AND THEN THAT ELECTRICITY COULD BE CLEAN FROM WIND AND SOLAR, THEN THAT HYDROGEN'S RELATIVELY CLEAN.
MOST OF THE WAY WE MAKE HYDROGEN THOUGH IS FROM STEAM METHANE REFORMING START WITH METHANE AND THEN YOU MAKE HYDROGEN AND THAT PROCESS HAS THE METHANE LEAKS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOURCE OF THE FUEL AS WELL AS THE CO2 THAT'S RELEASED FROM THE STEAM METHANE REFORMING.
SO THE WAY WE MAKE HYDROGEN TODAY IS PRETTY DIRTY AND IT WOULDN'T MAKE SENSE TO INCREASE HYDROGEN USE UNLESS WE CLEANED UP ITS PROCESS WHICH COULD BE STEAM METHANE REFORMING WITH CARBON CAPTURE WHICH WE TALKED ABOUT EARLIER OR ELECTROLYSIS OR PYROLYSIS OR LYSIS LIKE MANY WAYS TO MAKE HYDROGEN THAT ARE CLEANER.
AND I WOULD SUGGEST MAYBE WE USE A CLEAN WAY RATHER THAN DIRTY WAY THAT HYDROGEN'S MOST VALUABLE USE HISTORICALLY IS FOR CHEMICALS.
SO TO MAKE THESE LIKE FERTILIZERS OR AS A BUILDING BLOCK FOR OTHER HIGH VALUE CHEMICALS OR TO CLEAN UP CRUDE.
SO THE, ONE OF THE BIGGEST USERS OF HYDROGEN TODAY IS ACTUALLY REFINERIES TO LIGHTEN AND SWEETEN THE CRUDE, THE PETROLEUM TO MAKE IT LESS POLLUTING WHEN WE BURN IT.
WE MIGHT NOT NEED THAT HYDROGEN IN THE FUTURE IF WE DON'T NEED CRUDE OIL THOUGH.
SO THAT USE OR OF HYDROGEN MIGHT NOT BE NECESSARY BUT WE'LL STILL WANT FERTILIZERS AND AGROCHEMICALS AND THINGS LIKE THAT PROBABLY.
AND THEN THE NEW USE OF HYDROGEN BEYOND AGROCHEMICALS IN PARTICULAR, I MEAN LIKE AMMONIA FERTILIZER MIGHT BE TO BUILD AVIATION FUELS OR MARINE FUELS OR INDUSTRIAL HEAT OR A FEW THINGS THAT ARE HARD TO ELECTRIFY AND THEN IT WILL MATTER A LOT HOW YOU MADE THE HYDROGEN.
UH, ONE OF THE THINGS WE'VE TALKED ABOUT BEFORE IN THIS ROOM IS THAT THERE ARE PLACES AROUND THE WORLD WHERE YOU CAN DRILL FOR HYDROGEN LIKE WE DRILL FOR OIL OR GAS OR DRILL FOR HEAT LIKE WITH GEOTHERMAL AND NATURAL HYDROGEN'S PRETTY CLEAN.
SO WE'LL SEE BECAUSE THEN YOU DON'T HAVE TO MAKE THE HYDROGEN FROM SOMETHING ELSE, YOU CAN JUST EXTRACT IT FROM A RESERVOIR.
SO HOW YOU MAKE THE HYDROGEN WILL BE REALLY IMPORTANT AND THEN WE'LL WANT TO USE IT ONLY WHERE IT MAKES SENSE.
AND LET'S TALK ABOUT LIGHT DUTY VEHICLES.
TOYOTA MAY A MADE A BIG BET A DECADE AGO THAT WE'LL WANT HYDROGEN FUEL CELL VEHICLES.
MEANWHILE THE REST OF THE MANUFACTURERS BET WE WOULD WANT ELECTRIC VEHICLES AND ELECTRICITY IN FACT IS CHEAPER AND HIGHER PERFORMING SO IT WILL WIN.
SO HYDROGEN FOR LIGHT DUTY VEHICLES REALLY DOESN'T MAKE SENSE.
YOU KNOW, NOW WE'RE HAVING THAT COMPETITION FOR HEAVY DUTY TRUCKING AND A LOT OF TRUCK MANUFACTURERS ARE MAKING HYDROGEN TRUCKS BUT YOU ALSO HAVE TESLA AND OTHERS MAKING ELECTRIC TRUCKS.
SO WE'LL SEE HOW THAT BATTLE SORTS OUT.
BUT THERE'S A BATTLE BETWEEN HYDROGEN AND ELECTRONS FOR DIFFERENT UM, SORT OF TRANSPORTATION USES.
BUT I THINK FOR AVIATION THAT'LL BE HARDER TO ELECTRIFY THAT HYDROGEN EITHER BECOMES THE FUEL FOR AVIATION OR THE BUILDING BLOCK FOR THE FUEL FOR AVIATION.
AND THEN MARINE SHIPPING PROBABLY YOU CONVERT THE HYDROGEN INTO AMMONIA OR METHANOL OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT.
SO THERE'LL BE A FEW PLACES WHERE HYDROGEN REALLY MAKE SENSE.
AND THEN A LOT OF PLACES WHERE IT DOESN'T, FROM THE AUSTIN ENERGY PERSPECTIVE IT WILL BE DOES ALL ENERGY HAVE CUSTOMERS USING ELECTRICITY TO MAKE HYDROGEN WITH ELECTROLYSIS OR CAN ALL ENERGY USE THAT HYDROGEN AS THAT DISPATCHABLE FUEL ON RESERVE FOR THE TIMES IT'S NOT WINDY OR SUNNY? AND THE ANSWER IS ALL ENERGY COULD USE HYDROGEN AS A BACKUP OF FUEL IF WIND THE SOLAR'S NOT AVAILABLE AS LONG AS THE HYDROGEN'S MADE CLEANLY, IF THE HYDROGEN'S MADE IN A DIRTY WAY THEN IT WOULDN'T BE SO INTERESTING.
SO HYDROGEN'S GOT A LOT OF QUESTIONS AROUND IT, BUT IT'S PRETTY EXCITING IN TERMS OF LIKE THE PRIVATE INVESTMENT GOING TO IT AND SOME OF THE INNOVATION QUESTION.
ALRIGHT, WE'RE GONNA GOING ONLINE.
IT'S MY UNDERSTANDING THAT EVA WOULD LIKE TO ASK HER OWN QUESTION.
THERE MIGHT BE SOME COMPLEXITY THERE WHERE AGAIN WE'RE KEEPING THIS TO QUESTION SO IF WE COULD UNMUTE UM, HER AND THEN HAVE HER ASK THE QUESTION.
UM, WELL IT REALLY WAS I GUESS MORE OF A COMMENT, BUT I GUESS I CAN PUT IT IN THE FORM OF A QUESTION
YEAH, SO, UH, DR. WEBER GAVE THE SAME PRESENTATION TO COUNSEL AND I KNOW HE CLARIFIED HIS POINT THAT HE MADE REGARDING THE EQUITY BETWEEN OR THE EQUITY BENEFITS OF NET ZERO VERSUS ZERO CARBON.
AND AT THAT MEETING HE CLARIFIED THAT HE WAS REFERRING TO THE COST OF ONE VERSUS THE OTHER AS AS OPPOSED TO OTHER FACTORS.
AND I KNOW THAT OTHER ANALYSIS
[01:25:01]
POINTS TO NET ZERO BEING LESS EQUITABLE WHEN IT COMES TO EMISSIONS BECAUSE IT INHERENTLY MEANS THAT TO HIS, YOU KNOW, POINT THAT HE MADE HERE THAT EMISSIONS WOULD CONTINUE IN SOME AREAS AND THEN YOU KNOW, THAT UM, THOSE GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS, THAT CARBON WOULD THEN BE REMOVED IN SOME OTHER AREA.AND SO WITH THE CARBON EMISSIONS GENERALLY COMES OTHER POLLUTANTS AND GENERALLY AROUND THOSE POLLUTING FACILITIES IT'S MORE LIKELY TO BE PEOPLE OF COLOR AND MORE LIKELY TO BE POORER NEIGHBORHOODS.
SO THEY BEAR A DISPROPORTIONATE BURDEN IN THAT SCENARIO.
SO I GUESS MY QUESTION IS HOW IS THAT BEING ACCOUNTED FOR? IF WE'RE TALKING ABOUT THE EQUITY BETWEEN, YOU KNOW, THE BENEFIT OF WHEN IT COMES TO EQUITY BETWEEN NET ZERO OR ACTUALLY GETTING TO ZERO? THERE'S A GREAT QUESTION.
SO, UM, WE MIGHT HAVE DIFFERENT INTERPRETATIONS IN THE ROOM WHAT EQUITY MEANS.
FOR ME, EQUITY IS A COMPLEX COMBINATION OF MAKING SURE YOU REDUCE FENCE LINE POLLUTION AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE, MAKING SURE THAT THE LOCAL LOCAL COMMUNITY GETS TO PARTICIPATE IN THE EMPLOYMENT OR ECONOMIC BENEFITS, MAKING SURE THAT THE ENERGY OR ELECTRICITY REMAINS AFFORDABLE AND MAKING SURE IT REMAINS RELIABLE.
SO IT'S A LIKE A FOUR PART TENSION I WOULD SAY BETWEEN ALL OF THAT, BETWEEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT, THE ECONOMIC UPSIDE, THE RELIABILITY AND THE AFFORDABILITY.
AND IF FENCE LINE POLLUTION IS THE ONLY FACTOR THAT MATTERS, THEN DO YOU WANT ZERO EMISSIONS.
BUT IF YOU ALSO WANT AFFORDABILITY, RELIABILITY AND, AND JOBS AND OTHER THINGS, THEN YOU MIGHT CONSIDER THOSE OTHER FACTORS.
AND MOST OF THE ANALYTICAL COMMUNITY, AT LEAST FROM THE ACADEMIC WORLD AND THE NATIONAL LABS, THAT KIND OF THING WILL CONSIDER THE WHOLE RANGE OF FACTORS IN WHICH CASE COST BECOMES REALLY IMPORTANT IN GETTING TO A LOWER COST SOLUTION.
WHICH MEANS SOMETIMES YOU HAVE A POWER PLANT THAT YOU USE 4% OF THE YEAR OR WHATEVER THE NUMBER IS THAT IS OF LOWERING THE COST A LOT AND THAT IT HAS EQUITY BENEFITS.
SO THAT'S PART OF THE ANALYSIS THAT HAPPENS.
IF YOU HAVE A SYSTEM THAT'S NOT RELIABLE, IT'S THE PEOPLE OF COLOR OR MARGINALIZED COMMUNITIES OR POOR PEOPLE WHO SUFFER DISPROPORTIONATELY FROM THE OUTAGES.
AND WE'RE SEEING THAT RIGHT NOW WITH WHAT'S HAPPENED IN HOUSTON IN THE LAST FEW WEEKS.
SO THAT IS ALSO A FACTOR CONSIDERED.
SO IT MIGHT COME DOWN TO HOW YOU DEFINE EQUITY AND HOW YOU PUT THAT INTO YOUR, YOUR MODEL.
UM, AND MOST OF US HAVE A COUPLE DIFFERENT FACTORS AND SO WE'LL COME UP WITH THIS THING, BUT A LOT OF IT IS THE RATE AT WHICH WE GET TO ZERO.
IF YOU WANT TO GET TO ZERO USING ONLY ZERO EMITTING DEVICES, YOU END UP HAVING TO OVERBUILD A LOT OF WIND AND SOLAR AND STORAGE AND THINGS LIKE THAT THAT ADDS UP AND BECOMES MORE EXPENSIVE.
SO THAT'S WHY LEASE COST OPTIMIZATION, UM, EVENTUALLY RUNS OUTTA ROOM FROM OUR WIND AND SOLAR AND IT CONCLUDES THAT A LITTLE BIT OF CARBON REMOVAL ENDS UP BEING CHEAPER 'CAUSE THEN YOU DON'T HAVE TO BUILD AS MANY GIGAWATTS OF WIND SOLAR.
SO IT IS JUST KIND OF ATTENTION.
BUT IF WE DON'T ALL HAVE THE EXACT SAME OPTIMIZATION, BUT WE KIND OF COME TO THE SAME CONCLUSIONS, I GUESS THOSE OF US WHO ARE MODELING WITH AN OPTIMIZATION FRAMEWORK, OPTIMIZING AROUND COST AS ONE FACTOR ALONG WITH THE OTHER ONE.
I DUNNO IF THAT REALLY ANSWERED THE QUESTION, BUT GREAT POINT THAT THERE ARE DIFFERENT FACTORS OF EQUITY TO CONSIDER.
SORRY, I JUST WANTED TO FOLLOW UP.
SO CA EVA, WE'RE WE'RE GOING FROM PLACE TO PLACE AND I I'LL GET BACK TO YOU, I PROMISE.
THE GENTLEMAN OVER HERE IN THE ORANGE SHIRT HAD WAS THE NEXT PERSON YOU WITH THE LONG? YES.
OH, I WAS ACTUALLY GONNA ASK ABOUT HYDROGEN.
I DID WANNA ASK ABOUT, UH, LIKE IN YOUR OPINION THE COMBUSTION HYDROGEN.
UH, I CAN, YEAH, I CAN REPEAT THE QUESTION TOO, BUT, UM, IN YOUR OPINION IS THE COST OF PRODUCING A POWER PLANT THAT WOULD COMBUST HYDROGEN, UM, IN THE LONG TERM AFTER COMBUSTING NATURAL GAS FOR SOME TIME, IS THAT, WOULD THAT OFFSET THE COST AND THE BENEFITS OF AND ENHANCED LOCAL SOLAR AND DEMAND RESPONSE AND ALL OF THE THINGS WE CAN DO AT A LOCAL LEVEL TO MITIGATE THOSE RARITY EVENTS THAT WOULD CAUSE THAT PRICE SPIKE? DO YOU MEAN LIKE, UM, RETROFITTING A GAS PLANT FOR HYDROGEN OR LIKE, LIKE A NEW HYDROGEN PLANT? YEAH, LIKE RETROFITTING A GAS PLANT TO COMBUST HYDROGEN? THAT'S A GOOD QUESTION.
SO, UM, I MEAN I THINK LOCAL ENERGY GENERALLY SPEAKING HAS A LOT OF BENEFITS FOR US ENERGY, WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING IF THERE'S A PLACE, SAY IN SOUTH TEXAS WHERE THE WIND RESOURCE IS REALLY GOOD.
SO SOMETIMES YOU WANT TO, YOU WANNA MOVE TO WHERE THE RESOURCE IS REALLY GOOD OR YOU WANNA MOVE TO WHERE THE RESOURCE IS REALLY PROXIMATE, LIKE REALLY CLOSE BY.
AND SO THE HYDROGEN BENEFITS MIGHT DEPEND ON WHERE IT'S LOCATED, HOW YOU MAKE IT, AND WHETHER YOU'RE BUILDING A NEW PLANT OR RETROFITTING, YOU CAN TAKE A NATURAL GAS POWER PLANT AND RETROFIT TO BLEND IN SOME HYDROGEN.
TYPICAL RULE OF THUMB IS YOU CAN BLEND UP TO 20% HYDROGEN IN YOUR METHANE MIX AND THAT REDUCES YOUR, UM, GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS FROM THE SMOKE STACK BY LIKE SEVEN OR 8%.
SO HYDROGEN'S MUCH MORE VOLUMINOUS, IT TAKES MORE VOLUME.
AND SO IF YOU OFFSET 20%, 20% BY VOLUME, YOU'RE OFFSETTING LIKE SEVEN TO 9% BY ENERGY.
SO YOU OFFSET 20% OF YOUR GAS, BUT YOU ONLY OFFSET SEVEN TO 9% OF YOUR GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS, WHICH IS STILL SOMETHING.
SO THAT DOESN'T MEAN IT'S NOT WORTH PURSUING.
AND YOU CAN LEVERAGE THE EXISTING EQUIPMENT, WHICH IS GOOD, BUT IF YOU GO TO HIGHER BLENDS, AND WE DON'T KNOW THE EXACT UPPER LIMIT, WE USED TO SAY THE GRID COULDN'T HANDLE MORE THAN 20% WIND,
[01:30:01]
THAT'S CLEARLY FALSE.THE GRID CAN HANDLE A LOT MORE THAN 20% WIND.
NOW WE SAY THE TURBINES CAN'T HANDLE MORE THAN 20% HYDROGEN.
WE'LL FIND OUT IF THAT'S TRUE OR NOT, BUT AT SOME POINT THE, THE FLAME SPEEDS ARE DIFFERENT AND YOU HAVE TO CHANGE YOUR TURBINE BLADE DESIGN AND OTHER THINGS.
SO YOU GET SOME DIFFERENT FUNDAMENTALS IN THE COMBUSTION IF YOU GET TO HIGHER BLENDS OF HYDROGEN.
AND SO A LITTLE BIT OF HYDROGEN BLENDING MIGHT BE A WAY TO LEVERAGE AN ASSET, ESPECIALLY IF THAT ASSET'S LIKE 30 YEARS OLD AND MAYBE YOU THINK IT'S GOT 15 YEARS LEFT, BUT YOU'RE NOT SURE YOU NEED 50 YEARS OF HYDROGEN PLANT.
SO BLENDING CAN BE A WAY TO GET IT.
YOU SOLVE THE PROBLEM OF WHERE TO GET THE HYDROGEN AND WAS IT CLEAN AND THAT KIND OF THING.
THE EMISSION SUGAR GONNA HAVE FROM GREENHOUSE GASES THOUGH FOR SURE.
UM, YOUR OTHER EMISSIONS THINKING OF LIKE YOUR CRITERIA POLLUTANTS, LIKE SULFUR OXIDES CERTAINLY SHOULD GO DOWN.
THE HYDROGEN'S VERY CLEAN FROM A SULFUR PERSPECTIVE.
YOUR NOX OR NITROGEN OXIDE POLLUTION CAN GO UP DEPENDING ON WHAT YOUR NOX CONTROLS ARE AND YOUR BURN TEMPERATURE AND EVERYTHING ELSE.
SO THE GOOD NEWS IS HYDROGEN BURNS AT A HIGH TEMPERATURE.
THAT MEANS IT'S MORE EFFICIENT.
THE BAD NEWS AT A HIGH TEMPERATURE YOU GET MORE KNOCKS.
SO THIS WILL BE A, A TRADE OFF.
YOU DON'T HAVE TO BURN HYDROGEN TO GET ELECTRICITY, YOU CAN RUN IT THROUGH A FUEL CELL OR THERE ARE OTHER DEVICES AND THOSE OPERATE A LOW TEMPERATURE IN WHICH CASE YOU DON'T HAVE ANY POLLUTION.
SO IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW YOU'RE USING IT AND WHETHER YOU'RE BLENDING OR DOING A DEDICATED TURBINE, THE TURBINE MANUFACTURER OF SIEMENS, GE, TOSHIBA, MITSUBISHI, YOU NAME IT, THEY'RE ALL MAKING HYDROGEN READY OR HIGHER HYDROGEN FRACTION TURBINES.
YOU CAN GO UP TO LIKE A HUNDRED PERCENT HYDROGEN.
THE JAPANESE MANUFACTURERS ARE ALSO MAKING AMMONIA TURBINES.
AMMONIA IS NH THREE HAS A LOT OF HYDROGEN, NO GREENHOUSE GASES.
IT ALSO HAS A NOX CONCERN YOU HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT, BUT YOU, LIKE, YOU AVOID THE GREENHOUSE GAS POLLUTION YOU SOLVE TO MANAGE THE NOX POLLUTION.
SO IT'S NOT PERFECT AND YOU WOULDN'T WANT TO DO IT ANYMORE THAN YOU NEED TO.
I WOULD SAY LIKE YOU'D RATHER USE THE OTHER RESOURCES THE WAY I THINK OF IT, LIKE THESE TURBINES ARE GREAT WHEN YOU DON'T HAVE OTHER OPTIONS AND MOVING AWAY FROM USING AROUND THE CLOCK IS PROBABLY THE WAY TO GO UNLESS IT'S A CLEAN SOURCE WITH CARBON CAPTURE OR NUCLEAR OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT.
ALL RIGHT, AGAIN, WE'RE LOOKING FOR QUESTIONS.
ANY QUESTIONS? I THOUGHT I SAW A HAND UP HERE, BUT MAYBE THAT WAS TAKEN CARE OF.
CARISSA, WE'LL GO BACK TO YOU OR KAY, HOWEVER YOU NEED THAT TO DO THAT.
UH, THIS IS A DIFFERENT PARTICIPANT.
UM, THE QUESTION IS WHAT IMPACT WILL THE ADVANCE ACT HAVE ON ACCELERATING ADOPTION OF NUCLEAR? THAT'S A GREAT QUESTION.
SO THERE'S BEEN A LOT OF LEGISLATION AROUND CLEAN ENERGY.
THERE WAS THE CHIPS ACT, THE BIPARTISAN INFRASTRUCTURE LAW, THE INFLATION REDUCTION ACT.
NOW THE ADVANCED ACT, THE ADVANCED ACT IS REALLY AROUND ADVANCED NUCLEAR.
AND UH, I'M A FAN OF NUCLEAR AS MANY ENGINEERS ARE, BUT NUCLEAR IS NOT CHEAP.
WE LIKE, WE JUST HAVE TO REMIND MYSELF LIKE IT IS NOT CHEAP AND IT'S NOT FAST.
AND SO IF WE'RE LOOKING AT WHAT AUSTIN ENERGY NEEDS IN THE NEXT 10 OR 15 YEARS, MAYBE NUCLEAR CATCHES THE TAIL END OF THAT, BUT I DON'T SEE IT AS A 2020 OPTION.
HOWEVER, THE ADVANCED ACT SHOWS THAT THERE'S SOME INTERESTING BIPARTISAN COLLABORATION AROUND THIS.
UH, DEMOCRATS AND REPUBLICANS TEND TO AGREE THAT NUCLEAR NEEDS SUPPORT AND WILL GIVE IT SOME SUPPORT.
AND SO IT WILL GET SOME SUPPORT AND WE'LL BUILD SOME MORE.
I HAVE ASKED THIS QUESTION TO YOU, UTILITY EXECUTIVES, DIFFERENT AUDIENCES, YOU KNOW, RAISE YOUR HANDS BASED ON WHETHER YOU THINK WE'LL BUILD A CONVENTIONAL FISSION REACTOR FIRST, A SMALL MODULAR FISSION REACTOR OR FUSION REACTOR FIRST.
AND WE DON'T KNOW WHICH OF THOSE THREE WILL BE THE FIRST NEXT NEW THING TO MARKET JUST 'CAUSE IT TAKES SO LONG TO BUILD.
BUT I, I THINK THE ADVANCED ACT WILL HELP BUY DOWN SOME OF THE COSTS AND BUY DOWN SOME OF THE TIME, BUT WIND, SOLAR AND BATTERIES ARE STILL FASTER AND CHEAPER.
RIGHT? BUT, BUT I'M SAYING THAT AS A FAN OF NUCLEAR, RIGHT, I REALLY WANT MORE NUCLEAR.
IT'S JUST, IT HAS DIFFERENT PERFORMANCE FEATURES IS WHY I LIKE IT.
OKAY, OTHER QUESTIONS? YES, SIR.
UM, HOW DO YOU FEEL ABOUT THE BOSTON ENERGY INSTALLS? SOMETHING REAL SMALL, LIKE MAYBE 20 KILOWATT BATTERY AT EACH METER THAT THEY HAVE AND THEN THEY USE IT FOR DEMAND RESPONSE.
THEY KEEP THE MONEY TILL THE, TILL THE SYSTEM PAYS FOR ITSELF AND THEN AFTER THAT THE CUSTOMER WILL GET THE MONEY.
SO MAYBE DO A 20 KILOWATT BATTERY AT EACH METER.
YOUR HOUSE MIGHT BE FIVE KILOWATTS, 10 KILOWATTS.
MAYBE YOU COULD DO 20 KILOWATT BATTERY.
AND YOU COULD EVEN DO IT PRIVATELY WITH A TESLA POWERWALL.
I THINK WE MIGHT GET THERE THROUGH OUR ELECTRIC VEHICLES FIRST BECAUSE YOUR ELECTRIC VEHICLE MIGHT HAVE ALREADY 80 KILOWATT HOURS OF STORAGE THAT COULD PUT OUT 10 KILOWATTS OR SOMETHING.
SO IT MIGHT BE OUR ENERGY DOESN'T HAVE TO DO THAT 'CAUSE WE'RE ALL GONNA BUY A FORD F-150 OR, OR CHEVY BOLT OR WHATEVER IT IS THAT CAN, THAT HAS A BIGGER BATTERY THAN THEY MIGHT GIVE US ANYWAY.
AND THEN WE NEED TWO-WAY CHARGING.
AND THE THING IS WE'RE BUYING THESE POWERFUL BATTERIES NOT TO BACK UP OUR HOUSE, BUT JUST GET FROM POINT TO POINT AND THEN WE CAN USE IT AS A BACKUP AS A SECOND.
SO IT MIGHT BE THE ELECTRIC VEHICLES SOLVE THAT CAPACITY, THAT CAPABILITY FOR US.
IF WE HAVE TWO-WAY CHARGING AND THAT KIND OF THING.
AUSTIN ENERGY COULD PROVIDE THE BATTERIES POTENTIALLY.
I DON'T KNOW IF THE ECONOMICS PENCIL OUT AND THERE'S A STARTUP IN TOWN CALLED BASE POWER TRYING TO DO THAT OUTSIDE OF AUSTIN WHERE THEY'LL, THEY'LL SET YOU UP WITH A BATTERY, THEY'RE USING IT TO PLAY THE MARKETS TO MAKE MONEY.
BUT WHEN THE POWER GOES OFF YOUR ISLAND, YOU CAN BACK UP YOUR HOME.
AND THAT'S ALREADY, THERE ARE PEOPLE DOING THAT FOR INDUSTRY AND COMMERCIAL SECTOR AS WELL.
SO THERE ARE BUSINESS MODELS AROUND THAT AND I, HOPEFULLY IT GOES WELL.
UM, BUT ELECTRIC VEHICLES WILL COMPETE WITH THAT I THINK.
[01:35:01]
ONLINE.AND I KNOW KABA WAS TRYING TO ASK ANOTHER QUESTION TOO AS WELL, SO WHOEVER WAS FIRST THERE KRISA.
SO KABA CAN, IF SOMEONE CAN GO AHEAD AND UNMUTE, I KNOW SHE HAD A FOLLOW UP QUESTION.
YEAH, I JUST WAS, I, MAYBE I JUST DIDN'T HEAR IT, BUT I WAS JUST TRYING TO ACTUALLY, UH, GET AN ANSWER TO THE, THE QUESTION THAT I ASKED, WHICH IS HOW WILL THAT BURDEN OF POLLUTION BE FACTORED INTO THE MODELING? SO THERE ARE REAL COST THAT COME WITH THAT FOR THOSE PEOPLE, YOU KNOW, IN TERMS OF HEALTH COST IN PARTICULAR, BUT MISSED DAYS OF WORK AND SCHOOL.
SO, YOU KNOW, THERE I THINK ARE WAYS OF ACCOUNTING FOR THAT, BUT I JUST, YEAH, MY QUESTION IS HOW IS IT GONNA BE ACCOUNTED FOR? 'CAUSE IF WE'RE TALKING ABOUT AN EQUITY BENEFIT ON ONE METRIC, WE NEED TO, YOU KNOW, TALK ABOUT IT ON UM, YOU KNOW, WE NEED TO FACTOR IT IN QUANTITATIVELY ON THE OTHERS AS WELL.
SO I CAN'T SAY AUSTIN ENERGY'S GONNA DO THEIR MODEL AND I HAVE NOT MODELED THAT, UH, THOSE SET OF COSTS FOR AUSTIN ENERGY, BUT WE DID IT FOR ALL OF TEXAS WITH OUR REPORT THAT CAME OUT TWO YEARS AGO.
AND THE WAY YOU MODEL THOSE EQUITY IMPACTS IS JUST WITH DOLLARS.
IT JUST WITH A COST AND IT'S DOLLARS PER TON OF CO2 EMITTED IS ONE COST.
THEN YOU HAVE, UH, DOLLARS PER TON OF NOX OR SOCKS FOR PART TICKET MATTER.
SO YOU PUT A PRICE ON IT AND THE PRICE FOR NOX AND SOCKS, A PARTIC MATTER IS IN THE MANY THOUSANDS TO TENS OF THOUSANDS OR SOME CASES, HUNDREDS OF THOUSAND DOLLARS A TON.
WHEREAS THE COST OF CO2 MIGHT BE LIKE 150 BUCKS A TON OR SO IF YOU PUT A PRICE ON IT.
AND NOXS AND SOCKS IN PARTICULAR MATTER IN PARTICULAR ARE VERY EXPENSIVE, BUT THERE'S FEWER TONS EMITTED.
SO YOU CAN BALANCE THAT ALL OUT.
AND THE COST OF THE NOXS AND SOCKS IN PARTICULAR MATTER VARIES BY COUNTY.
SO WE WOULD VARY 'CAUSE A A, THE DAMAGE DONE BY THE NEXT TON OF NOX THAT'S EMITTED WILL DEPEND ON HOW MANY TONS OF KNOX ARE ALREADY IN THAT COUNTY AND HOW MANY PEOPLE ARE IN THAT COUNTY.
SO WE WOULD VARY BY COUNTY AND LOOK AT WHAT IS THE BASELINE POLLUTION IN THAT COUNTY AND IF WE ADD A TON OF KNOX, DOES IT DO A LITTLE DAMAGE OR LAW DAMAGE? WE PUT A DOLLAR SIGN ON IT.
AND THEN YOU DO THE SAME THING WITH SOX, DO THE SAME THING, PARTICULAR MATTER.
AND THEN CO2 IS EVENLY DISPERSE THE ATMOSPHERE.
SO YOU DON'T HAVE TO VARY BY COUNTING AND YOU JUST USE A STRAIGHT UP NUMBER.
THE COST IS 150 BUCKS A TON OR WHATEVER THE COST IS.
AND THAT'S LIKE THE SOCIAL COST CARBON.
SO YOU PUT A DOLLAR VALUE ON THOSE, THOSE POLLUTANTS AND THAT FACTORS IN.
AND THEN YOU GO FOR LEASE COST SOLUTION.
AND SO THE EQUITY COSTS OF POLLUTION ARE CONSIDERED WITH LOCATIONAL SPECIFICITY AND BY TIME OF DAY IN SOME CASES, AND BY MARGINAL POLLUTION, HOW MUCH ALREADY POLLUTION YOU ALREADY HAVE AND WHAT THE NEXT TON IS.
AND THEN YOU GO FOR LEASE COST.
AND THEN MOST OF US CONCLUDE THAT A LITTLE BIT OF EMISSIONS THAT YOU SCRUB OUT OR CLEAN OUT ELSEWHERE ENDS UP BEING CHEAPER THAN GOING TO ZERO EMISSIONS.
BUT THAT'S BY, OKAY, TO ANSWER YOUR QUESTION, YOU PUT A DOLLAR SIGN ON IT.
WHAT IS THE, THE DAMAGE FROM THAT.
OTHER QUESTIONS? WE HAVE TIME FOR MAYBE ONE OR TWO MORE QUESTIONS.
CHRIS, IS THERE ANYBODY ELSE ONLINE? GO AHEAD.
SO, UM, THE QUESTION IS, DO YOU KNOW IF AUSTIN RESIDENTS AND BUSINESSES ARE PURCHASING BACKUP GENERATORS? I KNOW THAT'S HAPPENING IN THE HOUSTON AREA, BUT WASN'T SURE IF THAT WAS HAPPENING HERE AS WELL.
SO, UM, IT'S REALLY EXPENSIVE AND FOR THE MOST PART DOESN'T MAKE SENSE, BUT PEOPLE BUY BACKUP BATTERY SYSTEMS, THEY BACK UP, UH, DIESEL GENERATORS AND BACKUP UP GAS GENERATORS.
SO THERE ARE A VARIETY OF WAYS YOU CAN GO INTO THIS.
AND I'VE LOOKED INTO THE PRICES 'CAUSE I'M CURIOUS, AND IF YOU CALL RIGHT NOW YOU'LL PAY 15 OR $20,000 FOR A GAS GENERATOR, BUT IT WOULD'VE BEEN $10,000 FOUR MONTHS AGO.
SO AFTER A HURRICANE, THE PRICES SPIKE, IT DEMAND GOES UP, IT USUALLY DOESN'T MAKE SENSE FOR RESIDENCES.
YOU'LL PAY THOUSANDS TO BELOW TENS OF THOUSANDS DOLLARS FOR A GENERATOR THAT YOU USE A COUPLE HOURS A YEAR MAYBE.
AND YOU PROBABLY DON'T EVEN USE IT A COUPLE HOURS A YEAR.
IT MIGHT BE YOU USE IT FOR 10 HOURS EVERY FIFTH YEAR OR SOMETHING.
SO IT BECOMES PRETTY EXPENSIVE POWER.
YOU WOULDN'T DO IT UNLESS YOU'RE, UH, AT A VERY IMPORTANT OR VALUABLE PLACE LIKE A HOSPITAL OR A DATA CENTER WHERE EITHER THE ELECTRICITY IS VERY VALUABLE LIKE AT A DATA CENTER OR VERY CRITICAL LIKE AT A HOSPITAL.
SO IT DOESN'T MAKE SENSE FOR MOST HOMEOWNERS TO DO THAT, BUT PEOPLE DO IT FOR A VARIETY OF REASONS.
THEY MIGHT HAVE, UH, SOMEONE A HOME THAT IS ON DIALYSIS AND THEY JUST HAVE TO HAVE THE POWER OR MAYBE THEY JUST REALLY WANT THE ELECTRIC ON OR WHATEVER IT IS.
IT'S PRETTY EXPENSIVE AND IT DOESN'T PENCIL OUT.
SO I'VE LOOKED INTO IT MANY TIMES.
LIKE THERE'S, THERE'S NO WAY I COULD JUSTIFY DOING THAT.
IT'S A LOT CHEAPER FOR ME TO PAY A THOUSAND DOLLARS FOR AN ISLANDING SWITCH AND A TWO-WAY CHARGER OFF MY ELECTRIC CAR.
LIKE THERE ARE CHEAPER WAYS TO GET THERE WITH, WITH A ELECTRIC MICROGRID FOR EXAMPLE.
THE OTHER THING IS THOSE GAS AND DIESEL GENERATORS ARE NOT AS RELIABLE AS YOU THINK.
I'VE ANECDOTALLY TALKED TO A LOT OF LIKE, YEAH, IT DIDN'T WORK DURING WINTER STORM URI OR WHATEVER, 'CAUSE THE GAS PRESSURES WERE LOW AND THE ENGINE WAS COLD.
THINK OF YOUR DIESEL TRUCK AND HOW HARD IT IS TO GET IT STARTED WHEN IT'S COLD OUTSIDE AND YOU HAVE TO TURN THEM OVER ONCE A WEEK.
SO YOU BURNING GAS OR DIESEL ONCE A WEEK FOR YEARS FOR THAT ONE TIME YOU NEED IT.
UH, SO I'M NOT A HUGE FAN OF IT.
HAVING SAID THAT, FOR LIKE HEB IT MAKES SENSE BECAUSE IF THEY HAVE A POWER OUTAGE, THEY THROW AWAY LIKE A QUARTER MILLION DOLLARS OF FOOD.
SO THEY MIGHT PAY FOR A GAS BACKUP GENERATOR.
BUT THE, THE, THEY'VE GOT A DIFFERENT VALUE PROPOSITION THAN ME LOSING $12 OF ELECTRICITY OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT.
[01:40:01]
ARE PEOPLE BUYING GENERATORS.UM, IT MOSTLY DOESN'T MAKE SENSE FOR MOST RESIDENCES UNLESS YOU HAVE SOME VERY PARTICULARLY CRITICAL NEED OR YOU HAVE A LOT OF MONEY LAYING AROUND AND, AND THERE ARE A LOT OF PEOPLE WHO MEET THOSE CRITERIA IN AUSTIN SO THAT IT IS A BOOMING BUSINESS.
BUT I WOULD SAY THAT'S NOT THE HIGHEST USE CASE OF BACKUP SYSTEMS. AT LEAST NOT THAT WAY.
UM, I COULD, LUKE, OH, YOU'VE ASKED A QUESTION LUKE, SO LET ME GO TO THIS GENTLEMAN.
UH, YEAH, SO MY, MY QUESTION IS KIND OF, UM, WHAT IS THE ROLE OF THESE BIG CORPORATIONS AND THESE BIG POWER USERS IN BEING ABLE TO PARTICIPATE AND CONTRIBUTE MORE INTO THE, THE, THE, THE GENERATION OF POWER AND EVEN STORAGE OF POWER? 'CAUSE I FEEL LIKE LOOKING AT THESE NUMBERS AND THESE GRAPHS, IT ALMOST KIND OF PUTS THE, THE ANALYSIS ON AN INDIVIDUAL LEVEL AND NOT REALLY, YOU KNOW, THESE POWER HUNGRY, YOU KNOW, PLACES WHERE I THINK THERE SHOULD BE A FOCUS INTO CONTRIBUTIONS AND, YOU KNOW, FOR, FOR AN EQUITY PURPOSE.
UH, THAT'S A GOOD QUESTION ABOUT LIKE THE BIG U LIKE INDUSTRIAL USERS.
WE DON'T HAVE A BIG INDUSTRIAL BASE IN AUSTIN, BUT WE DO IN TEXAS.
SO THERE'S A HUGE ISSUE FOR TEXAS.
NOT MAYBE A HUGE ISSUE FOR AUSTIN.
OUR BIGGEST INDU INDUSTRIAL USERS WILL BE DATA CENTERS AND MAYBE SOME CHIP FABS AND THIS KIND OF THING.
THEY, UM, SO THEY ARE MAYBE IN A NEGATIVE WAY YOU SAY COMPETING WITH US FOR POWER.
SO THEY'RE BAD, HOWEVER, THEY'RE BUYING POWER AROUND THE CLOCK AND EASY TO SERVE LOAD 'CAUSE THEY DON'T VARY VERY MUCH.
SO THEY ACTUALLY LOWER THE COST FOR EVERYBODY.
SO THEY'RE BOTH GOOD AND BAD DEPENDING ON YOUR LENS, HOW YOU MIGHT LOOK AT IT.
UM, THE BIG INDUSTRIAL CUSTOMERS FOR THE MOST PART DON'T LIKE TO DO DEMAND RESPONSE BECAUSE IF YOU'RE A CHIP FAB, YOU, IF YOU'RE FABRICATING SEMICONDUCTOR CHIPS, YOU ELECTRICITY'S VERY VALUABLE.
YOU CAN TURN A $40 PER MEGAWATT HOUR ELECTRON INTO A A HUNDRED THOUSAND DOLLARS PER MEGAWATT HOUR CHIP.
YOU MAKE A LOT OF MONEY OFF THAT ELECTRICITY YOU'D RATHER NOT TURN OFF.
AND SO THE REAL HIGH VALUE INDUSTRIAL USERS DON'T WANT TO TURN OFF.
THERE ARE SOME INDUSTRIAL USERS, UH, I THINK LIKE CRYPTO MINERS, THEY CAN TURN ON OFF ALL DAY.
SO SOME OF THEM ARE REALLY FLEXIBLE, SOME OF THEM ARE VERY INFLEXIBLE AND THEY PAY ACCORDINGLY.
IF YOU'RE INFLEXIBLE, YOU PAY A HIGHER PRICE THAN IF YOU'RE FLEXIBLE.
AND SO I THINK IT'S FINE, OBVIOUSLY.
SO IT'S NOT REALLY AN ISSUE FOR AUSTIN THAT MUCH.
IT IS AN ISSUE FOR TEXAS BECAUSE A LOT OF THE NEW LOAD IS INDUSTRIALIZED LOAD, LIKE ESPECIALLY OIL AND GAS, ELECTRIFYING OIL AND GAS PRODUCTION IN WEST TEXAS OR ELECTRIFYING COMPRESSORS FOR THE PIPELINES OR ELECTRIFYING EVEN SOME OF THE REFINERIES YOU CAN DO ELECTRO REFINING THAT KIND OF, THAT THOSE ARE MUCH BIGGER USERS AND THE BIG HYPERSCALE DATA CENTERS FOR ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE, THAT KIND OF THING.
UH, BIG USERS, BUT THEY'RE ALSO WILLING TO PAY MORE, WHICH IS INTERESTING.
SO THEY'RE, YOU KNOW, THEY, THEY WANT POWER.
UH, YOU HAVE PLACES IN ILLINOIS, THEY ARE LOOKING TO TAKE A NUCLEAR POWER PLANT OFFLINE AND BEHIND THE METER TO HAVE THAT NUCLEAR POWER PLANT SERVE A DATA CENTER.
SO IS THAT GOOD OR BAD? IS THAT, WELL THEY'RE TAKING SUPPLY OUT OF THE GRID, SO THAT'S BAD.
HOWEVER, THEY'RE TAKING AN OLD ASSET OFF THE GRID SO THERE'S ROOM TO BUILD MORE WIND AND SOLAR.
I DON'T, SO I WOULDN'T SAY IT'S, IT'S SIMPLY GOOD OR BAD.
IT'S JUST SORT OF THAT CHANGES THE, THE MAKEUP OF THE CUSTOMER BASE AND HOW IT FLOWS.
AND IT'S MOSTLY IRRELEVANT FOR AUSTIN, I WOULD SAY FROM A NARROW LENS.
I DUNNO IF THAT REALLY ANSWERED YOUR QUESTION.
DID THAT GET TO WHAT YOU'RE GOING AFTER? I GUESS WHAT I'M ASKING IS, AGAIN, JUST THE ROLE OF OF OF OF BIGGER USERS COMPARED TO SMALLER USERS AND, AND JUST THAT ANALYSIS.
BECAUSE AGAIN, I SEE AGGREGATES HERE AND, AND NOT AN ANALYSIS AGAIN, FROM THE EQUITABLE PERSPECTIVE.
AS THE USAGE GENERALLY SPEAKING, THE BIG USERS THERE AREN'T THAT MANY.
THEY ARE CHEAPER TO SERVE, THEY'RE EASIER TO SERVE BECAUSE THEIR LOAD DOESN'T VARY.
THE CHALLENGE FOR A GRID BALANCING AREA IS THE VARIABILITY, THE UP AND DOWN, WHICH IS MOSTLY HOMES FROM OUR HEATERS AND OUR AIR CONDITIONERS.
SOME BUSINESSES, BUT INDUSTRIAL, THE BIG USERS TEND TO BE VERY FLAT, VERY LEVEL.
IT'S PRETTY EASY LOAD TO SERVE, THEREFORE THEY GET A LOWER RATE AND THAT KIND OF THING.
SO IT'S, UM, BUT IT'S NOT A, I DUNNO, IT'S JUST NOT HIGHLY RELEVANT.
I MEAN, I THINK WE HAVE 12 BIG, HOW MANY BIG CUSTOMERS AUSTIN HAVE 12 OR SOMETHING? I'M LOOKING AT LEAST, I DON'T KNOW IF GO, BUT WE DON'T HAVE LIKE THOUSANDS OF BIG USERS HERE IN AUSTIN.
WE HAVE HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF SMALL USERS IN A FEW BIG USERS.
SO I, I THINK A LOT OF THE QUESTION MIGHT BE DOING WITH THE RATE CASE OR THE COST STUFF, WHICH IS PROBABLY ON A DIFFERENT TOPIC, BUT MAYBE WE CAN GET YOU SOME ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THAT.
I'LL TAKE IT AS AN ACTION ITEM.
CAN'T GUARANTEE I CAN GET YOU AN ANSWER, BUT WE'LL SEE WHAT WE CAN DIG AROUND AND FIND OUT.
I'D LIKE THE LAST 15 MINUTES FOR US TO JUST KIND OF TALK AMONGST OURSELVES FOR JUST A SECOND.
I KNOW LUKE, YOU HAD A QUESTION, BUT WRITE IT DOWN ON YOUR SHEET AND WE'LL WE'LL GET IT THERE FOR YOU.
'CAUSE I WANNA HONOR EVERYBODY'S TIME AND I KNOW WE COULD TALK ABOUT THIS FOR A LONG, SO THANK YOU FOR BEING SO KIND TO ME.
I WANT YOU TO TURN TO YOUR NEIGHBOR A SECOND AND YOU CAN WIGGLE AROUND 'CAUSE I KNOW WE'VE BEEN SITTING FOR A REALLY LONG TIME.
AND, AND TALK TO YOUR NEIGHBOR AND AND TELL THEM WHAT ARE THE TWO OR THREE BIG TAKEAWAYS FOR YOU IN EVERYTHING YOU'VE HEARD FOR THE LAST HOUR AND IN THE PROCESS.
LET'S ALSO, UH, GIVE A RANDOM APPLAUSE FOR DR.
[01:45:06]
SO TURN TO YOUR NEIGHBOR.WHAT ARE YOUR BIG TAKEAWAYS? WHAT DID YOU LEARN YOUR SURPRISE MOMENTS.
AND I'M GONNA ASK THAT TO ALL Y'ALL HERE IN JUST LIKE A MINUTE.
YOU GOT ABOUT, UH, 30 SECONDS LONGER HERE? YES.
I'M GONNA PULL US ALL BACK TOGETHER HERE.
I KNOW I DIDN'T GIVE YOU ANY TIME TO TALK.
I PROMISE NEXT TIME WE'LL TALK A LOT.
WHO CAN SHARE ONE OF THEIR BIG TAKEAWAYS FROM TODAY? ANYBODY? WHAT'S THE BIG, WHAT'D YOU JUST TELL YOUR FRIEND? I'LL GO HERE WITH THE LOVELY LADY BACK HERE SMILING AT ME.
SO WHAT, WHAT WAS YOUR BIG TAKEAWAY FROM TODAY? THAT'S YOU
I AM WITH THE AUSTIN HOUSING AUTHORITY.
AND SO HEARING WHAT, UM, WHAT YOU SAID ABOUT, ABOUT EQUITY IS ALWAYS IMPORTANT FOR US FROM THAT LENS HEARING WHAT YOU SAID ABOUT, UM, ABOUT UH, SERVING LOW INCOME.
BOTH WE ARE DOING, WE HAD A LOT OF STUFF WE GONNA FROM BUT VERY MEDICALLY VULNERABLE, BOTH.
AND SO WE ARE DOING THOSE MORE GENERATOR PROJECTS.
TRY AND INCREASE RELIABILITY ANYWAY, THIS IS NOT THE WORLD THAT I USUALLY LIVE IN.
THIS TREMENDOUSLY HELPFUL, I THINK REALLY HELPFUL IN S PROCESS,
SO EQUITY, LOW INCOME AND RELIABILITY, ALL ALL MAJOR BIG TAKEAWAYS.
[01:50:01]
OTHER PEOPLE JUST SHOUT OUT ANYTHING ELSE THERE IS A BIG TAKEAWAY.I DON'T KNOW IF WE NEED TO DO MICROPHONES OR NOT.
IT'D BE GREAT IF WE COULD
AND WHILE ALL OF THOSE ARE VERY MUCH CONSUMER ORIENTED THINGS THAT WE CAN DO, I DO THINK IT STARTS TO BECOME THIS WILD SITUATION WHERE WE'RE EXPECTING EACH INDIVIDUAL PERSON TO BECOME SOME SORT OF PARTIAL EXPERT IN SOMETHING LIKE GENERATORS AND ELECTRICITY AND KNOWING WHEN PEAK TIMES ARE.
AND I DON'T KNOW AT WHAT POINT WE NEED TO TAKE A STEP BACK AND SAY, YEAH, THAT'S NOT MY JOB, RIGHT?
WHY DO I HAVE TO BE THE ONE TO FOCUS ON SMOOTHING OUT WHAT TIME DISHWASHERS RUN OR LIKE WHY IS MY HOUSING AUTHORITY BECOMING AN EXPERT IN GENERATORS? THAT IS NOT THE BEST ALLOCATION OF OUR TIME USAGE, NOR LIKELY OUR BACKGROUNDS.
SO I, I THINK THERE'S, I WOULD LIKE TO SEE A LITTLE BIT OF A DISCUSSION OR SOME ACKNOWLEDGEMENT THAT MAY BE RELYING ON END USERS TO MANAGE ALL OF THIS STUFF IS NOT A REALISTIC, UH, WHERE IT GO EXPECTATION MOVING FORWARD.
WE CAN TALK MORE ABOUT THAT THIS IN THIS NEXT MEETING.
AND I DON'T KNOW IF YOU WANNA SAY ANYTHING ELSE, DR. WEBER, BUT I'M GONNA WAIT A SECOND, BUT I PROMISE YOU I AGREE.
OTHER BIG TAKEAWAYS YOU HEARD FROM TODAY, CARISSA? YEAH, FROM ONE OF OUR WEB PARTICIPANTS.
UM, THE TAKEAWAY IS THAT THERE ARE LOTS OF CHANGES HAPPENING.
SOME OF IT IS STILL IN THE R AND D PHASE AND SOME OF IT IS MORE SOFTWARE THAN BUILDING GENERATION.
I'D BE INTERESTED TO HEAR HOW INVOLVED AUSTIN ENERGY GETS IN R AND D AND HOW THEY'RE GOING TO SCALE UP SOFTWARES TO CONTROL THE GRID WITHIN THEIR TERRITORY OR PROGRAM DESIGN.
ARE THERE OTHER OPTIONS THEY CAN EMPLOY BEFORE RESORTING TO BUILDING NEW GENERATION OR ARE WE ALREADY PAST THAT? DOES THE PUBLIC GET TO WEIGH IN ON LOAD FORECASTING, WHICH IS GOING TO DRIVE HOW MUCH NEW GENERATION AUSTIN ENERGY THINKS THEY NEED? ALL RIGHT, THANK YOU.
OTHER BIG, UH, BIG TAKEAWAYS? ANYTHING ON CARBON NEUTRAL OR CARBON FREE OR CARBON, WHATEVER.
THERE WAS ALL SORTS OF THOSE
ANY OTHER THOUGHTS ON ANY OF THAT? I HAVE ONE.
YEP, GO FOR IT CAN GIVE EACH ONE OF US $10,000 FOR SOLAR.
WELL I, I APPRECIATE THAT INPUT.
I APPRECIATED THE CLARIFICATION DR. WEBER GAVE OF IT'S, YOU KNOW, THE SLIDE KIND OF READ OR SOUNDED LIKE, OH, MAYBE 50 50 CARBON NEUTRAL CARBON FREE IS GOOD, BUT THAT'S ACTUALLY HARMFUL.
AND WHAT WE REALLY NEED IS, YOU KNOW, PRIMARILY CARBON FREE AND THEN WHERE IT'S COST PROHIBITIVE OR YOU KNOW, THERE'S A INDUSTRIAL PROCESS, YOU CAN'T MAKE CARBON FREE, THEN WE GO CARBON NEUTRAL.
SO I APPRECIATE THAT CLARIFICATION.
HOW ABOUT, HOW ABOUT WHAT DO YOU THINK THE BIG CHALLENGES ARE FOR AUSTIN ENERGY HERE IN DR. WEBER? WAS THERE SOME BIG CHALLENGES YOU SAW? I MEAN, WE HEARD A LITTLE BIT OF THAT IN SOME QUESTIONS.
HOW ARE YOU GONNA FORECAST LOADS? BUT IS THERE ANY OTHER BIG CHALLENGES? WELL, YEAH, I THINK IT'S INTERESTING THAT THE PLACES WHERE WE CAN GENERATE THE MORE SCALE OR MORE COSTLY ARE NOT NECESSARILY IN OUR SERVICE, RIGHT? THE TENSION, RIGHT? AND I THINK IT A TENSION TO TRY TO GET THAT POWER INTO, BUT ALSO JUST THE WAY THAT OUR SET UP, WE'RE HAVING TO BUY PROBABLY A LOT MORE POWER THAN WE ACTUALLY GENERATE.
AND HOW DO WE MANAGE THAT, RIGHT? SO THE, IT'S JUST THE GEOGRAPHY OF WHERE THE POWER IS, THE TRANSMISSION TO GET HERE AND HOW DO YOU BALANCE THAT OUT? 'CAUSE EVERYTHING GOES IN THEIR CUP BUCKET AND THEN COMES BACK OUT.
SO JUST REPEATING THAT 'CAUSE WE DIDN'T HAVE A MIC OVER THERE.
ANY, ANY OTHER LIKE BIG CHALLENGES YOU FEEL LIKE THAT AUSTIN ENERGY'S FACING HERE WHEN THEY'RE, WHEN YOU HEARD DR. WEBER.
UM, NOW THAT, AGAIN, MY UNDERSTANDING, I'M, I MAY BE WRONG, THAT AUSTIN ENERGY BUYING AND SELLING ON THE MARKET AND PRODUCING, UH, ANYBODY LOOKED AT WHY EVEN AUSTIN ENERGY IS IN THE PRODUCTION BUSINESS ANYMORE.
YOU KNOW, JUST, JUST LEAVE IT TO THE PRIVATE SECTOR AND JUST BUY FROM THE GRID AND LET SOMEBODY ELSE TO BUILD IT AND MANAGE IT AND, UH, YOU KNOW, NOT BE IN THE PRODUCTION BUSINESS.
[01:55:01]
SO NOT OWNING A ELECTRIC COMPANY IS WHAT YOUR QUESTION WAS? NO, UH, THE, YOU KNOW, THEY THEY ARE, THEY HAVE AN ELECTRICAL COMPANY, BUT AS FAR AS THE POWER PLANTS AND STUFF YEAH, SOMEBODY ELSE THAT ARE IN THE BUSINESS, UH, LET THEM DO IT AND JUST YOU BUY IT OFF THE GRID.WELL, AND I THINK WHAT ONE OF THE THINGS THAT BRANDON HAD AT THE BEGINNING IS IT WOULD'VE COST ABOUT TWICE AS MUCH TO DO THAT.
AND SO I'LL CHECK TO MAKE SURE I'M RIGHT ABOUT THAT.
BUT TO JUST GET THEM OUT OF GENERATION TOTALLY IT WOULD, THE COST WOULD BE TWICE AS EXPENSIVE.
YEAH, THAT'S I THINK WHAT HE SAID.
SO BRANDON, IS HE STILL HERE? ALL RIGHT BRENDA? UM, NOPE, YOU'RE GONNA HAVE TO COME UP HERE.
COME ON UP DR. WEBER, YOU CAN COME TAKE MINE.
SO, UH, YOUR QUESTION MORE SPECIFICALLY IS WHY ARE WE EVEN IN THE GENERATION BUSINESS? SO BEING ABLE TO PRODUCE ELECTRICITY HELPS MINIMIZE THE AMOUNT OF POWER WE HAVE TO BUY FROM THE MARKET.
SO THERE, THERE WAS A SLIDE IN THERE THAT TALKED ABOUT CUTTING THE COST IN HALF.
SO IF WE WERE TO BUY ALL OF THAT ENERGY FROM THE MARKET AND NOT PRODUCE ANY, NOT HAVE ANY MARKET TOOLS, IT WOULD BE $1.1 BILLION, BUT WE CUT THAT IN HALF.
SO APPROXIMATELY FOR RESIDENTIAL CUSTOMERS, YOU'RE, AND THIS IS JUST AN APPROXIMATION, IT'D BE DIFFERENT.
SO BECAUSE WE HAVE TOOLS, WE HELP KEEP THOSE COSTS DOWN, IT'S A, IT'S A MARKET HEDGE, RIGHT? WE TURN POWER ON TO PROTECT OURSELVES FROM THE MARKET OR THE VOLATILITY IN THE MARKET, RIGHT? DETECTIVE WEBER IS GONNA ADD SOME.
SO, UH, YOU'D BE AT THE RISK OF THE MARKET FOR COST BUT ALSO FOR CLEANLINESS.
SO IF YOU WANNA MAKE SURE THE MIX IS CLEAN, THEN YOU CAN CONTROL IT BETTER IF YOU OWN THE ASSETS.
SO AUSTIN ENERGY'S MIX IS CLEANER THAN TYPICAL, BUT IF YOU DEPEND ON THE MARKET, YOU WOULD HAVE NO SAY ON HOW CLEAN IT IS.
SO THAT THAT'S ANOTHER RISK THAT MIGHT BE MORE EXPENSIVE AND DIRTIER.
I THINK THE SLIDE YOU SHOWED IS THAT THE GENERATION DEMAND AT THE POINT
SO YOU'RE ALREADY BUYING FROM THE MARKET.
SO AUSTIN ENERGY IS NOT FULLY SELF-SUFFICIENT EVERY HOUR OF THE YEAR.
SO THERE'S SOME PURCHASE FROM THE MARKET AND THEN WHAT WE SEE IS IF THOSE POWER PURCHASE AGREEMENTS ARE WHEN SOLAR ROLL OFF AND DEMAND GOES UP, THEN MORE WILL BE BOUGHT FROM THE MARKET UNLESS AUSTIN ENERGY PROCURES OTHER RESOURCES, IS IT DEGREE EVEN HAVE THAT BIG CAPACITY RIGHT NOW FOR THAT SITE.
IT'S, WELL NOT RIGHT NOW IN THE FUTURE BUT MIGHT BUILD IT.
SO A LOT OF THINGS ARE BEING BUILT IN ERCOT.
SO ERCOT MIGHT HAVE THOSE RESOURCES AVAILABLE, BUT WHEN AUSTIN ENERGY BUILDS SOMETHING THAT'S CONSIDERED PART OF THE RESOURCE OF ERCOT, SO THAT'S PART OF THE CONSTRUCTION.
I WANNA HONOR EVERYBODY'S TIME.
IF WE DID NOT GET TO YOUR QUESTIONS, WRITE DOWN ON THAT SHEET OF PAPER OR SEND IT TO US OR ALL OF THOSE KINDS OF THINGS.
I KNOW I NEED TO QUIT WALKING AROUND
I WANNA WALK AND TALK TO YOU AND POINT BETTER AND ALL THAT KINDA STUFF, BUT THEY'VE GOT ME LOCKED IN.
UM, SO OUR NEXT MEETING IS, YOU CAN SEE UP THERE IS IS A THURSDAY, IT'S NOT FRIDAY, AUGUST THE 22ND.
IT IS AT LUNCH BECAUSE YOU GUYS ALL VOTED AND SAID LUNCH WORKS BETTER FOR MOST OF YOU.
WE WILL HAVE A VERY SHORT PRESENTATION, UH, AND THEN WE WILL BE WORKING IN GROUPS.
SO REALLY IF THERE'S A WAY FOR YOU TO BE HERE IN THAT AUGUST MEETING, THAT WOULD BE GREAT.
UM, IF YOU'RE WATCHING THIS VIDEO AND YOU DIDN'T GET TO SHOW UP THIS MEETING, SEE IF YOU OR SOMEONE FROM YOUR ORGANIZATION COULD BE THERE.
'CAUSE AS THIS TODAY WAS A LOT OF OF INFORMATION OUT AND THEN NEXT MEETING IT'S INFORMATION COMING BACK IN.
SO IF YOU'RE NOT AT THE TABLE, THEN YOUR VOICE IS NOT GONNA BE HEARD.
SO I CAN'T EMPHASIZE THAT ENOUGH.
I THINK THAT WAS SIX TIMES, BUT, UM,
BUT COME NEXT TIME IF YOU CAN, UH, AND UH, WE GREATLY APPRECIATE IT.
YOUR INPUT'S THERE, ASK YOUR QUESTIONS, WE'LL GET THAT INFORMATION BACK TO YOU.
UM, AND WE WILL GET A REPORT BACK OUT TO YOU ON WHAT WE HEARD TODAY.
GRANTED, IT'S GONNA BE A LITTLE BIT DIFFERENT THAN WHAT WE HEARD LAST TIME 'CAUSE YOU'VE GOT A LOT OF INFORMATION.
BUT THE QUESTIONS THAT WE'RE ASKING AND ALL OF THOSE THINGS WILL BE PART OF IT.
SO WITH THAT, I THANK YOU VERY MUCH.
HAPPY WEEKEND AND UM, YOU TAKE CARE AND STAY COOL.