[Austin Resource Generation Plan Work Shop]
[00:00:03]
YOUR PARTICIPATION IS REALLY VITAL TO THE, TO PROPERLY INFORM THE AUSTIN ENERGY RESOURCE GENERATION PLAN OF 2035.
THAT SOUNDS LIKE A REALLY FAR TIME AWAY, BUT IT'S NOT RIGHT.
UM, JUST A FEW HOUSEKEEPING, UM, TIMES ITEMS. MY JOB IS TO HONOR YOUR TIME.
WE TRY TO START AND END ON TIME, UH, AND ALLOW SPACE TO HEAR FROM EVERYONE.
IF YOU'RE ASKING LOTS AND LOTS OF QUESTIONS TODAY, I MIGHT SLOW YOU DOWN AND ASK FOR OTHERS.
I MIGHT CALL ON YOU IF IT GETS QUIET.
SO BOTH OF THOSE THINGS TURN OFF YOUR PHONES.
THE BATHROOMS ARE OUT THE DOOR INTO THE RIGHT USE AS YOU NEED.
UM, AND WITH, LET'S SEE, WHERE ELSE? OH, WE'VE, HOW MANY RECEIVED AN EMAIL FROM US OR A COUPLE OF EMAILS? ONE SHOULD HAVE HAD A LINK TO THE, LET ME WRITE, MAKE SURE I SAID THE CLIMATE EQUITY PLAN FROM THE CITY OF AUSTIN, OFFICE OF AUSTIN, UH, OF, OF SUSTAINABILITY.
AND YOU SHOULD HAVE ALSO RECEIVED AN AUSTIN ENERGY AFFORDABILITY REPORT.
BOTH OF THOSE WERE KIND OF REQUESTED WITH ADDITIONAL INFORMATION FROM OUR FIRST MEETING.
IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS ON THAT, WE DO NOT HAVE TIME TO ANSWER THOSE QUESTIONS.
BUT ONE OF THE, THE PILES OF PAPER YOU HAVE ON YOUR DESK IS QUESTIONS.
IF YOU WRITE DOWN THOSE QUESTIONS, WE'LL MAKE SURE WE GET YOU THE ANSWERS OR REPORT BACK OUT NEXT MONTH.
'CAUSE WE'RE TRYING TO KIND OF HIT A TIMELINE THAT WE REQUESTED TO BY THE CITY COUNCIL.
SO, UM, THE, YOU, IF YOU DIDN'T SEE THOSE LINKS OR IF YOU NEED SOMETHING, LET ME KNOW AND WE'LL MAKE THAT WORK.
SO, UH, ALSO, YOU SHOULD BE AWARE THAT THIS, UM, MEETING IS BEING SHOWN RIGHT NOW THROUGH OUR WEBEX LINK.
WE'VE ALSO BROUGHT TEAM FROM A, UH, A TXN, WHO IS RECORDING THIS SESSION, UH, AND HOPING THAT WE'LL PROVIDE A LITTLE BETTER VIRTUAL EXPERIENCE FOR THOSE THAT ARE ONLINE.
THERE WILL BE A RECORDING OF THIS.
IT TAKES APPROXIMATELY 48 HOURS FOR IT TO POST.
I DON'T KNOW WHAT A FRIDAY DOES TO THAT DEADLINE, BUT, UM, THAT JUST KNOW THAT IT WILL BE POSTED.
SO I HOPE YOU'VE ALL BEEN ABLE TO INTRODUCE YOURSELF, UH, A LITTLE BIT.
AND, UM, WE ARE GONNA, UH, WE'RE GONNA DO A COUPLE, I DID A COUPLE ICEBREAKERS.
DO YOU REMEMBER WHERE WE STOOD UP OR RAISED YOUR HANDS? OKAY.
I WANNA SEE HOW YOUR SUMMER VACATION'S GOING ALONG.
SO YOU CAN STAND UP OR RAISE YOUR HANDS, WHICHEVER IS EASIEST FOR YOU.
SO WHO IS GONE ON VACATION SINCE THE LAST TIME WE GOT TOGETHER? OH, OH, OH.
A COUPLE PEOPLE WHO HAS SWAM AT BARTON SPRINGS THIS SUMMER.
OH TWO, WE GOT A, THE, THE MYSTICAL SPRINGS.
WHO'S BEEN TO THE BEACH THIS SUMMER? ANYBODY BEEN TO THE BEACH? ALL RIGHT.
HOW ABOUT ANYBODY WENT TO A POOL? YOU DIDN'T HAVE TO GET IN.
YOU COULD TAKE GRANDKIDS OR SOMETHING.
HOW ABOUT FLOATED DOWN A RIVER? YOU CAN TELL I LIKE WATER, RIGHT?
I ALWAYS LIKE TO END ON HOPEFULLY HAVING SOMEBODY ALL RAISE THEIR HAND.
I TRIED THIS YESTERDAY IN A RETREAT AND I HAD HALF THE PEOPLE THAT DIDN'T LIKE THE RAIN.
AH, I DON'T KNOW WHAT THEIR PROBLEM WAS, BUT, WE'LL, WE'LL MAKE THAT WORK.
UM, SO OUR AGENDA TODAY, UM, IS THE WELCOME INTRODUCTION.
I'M GONNA BRIEFLY GO OVER WHAT WE HEARD AT WORKSHOP ONE.
YOU SHOULD HAVE ALSO GOTTEN THAT REPORT.
UM, BUT I JUST WANNA REITERATE IT AND SEE IF THERE'S ANY, ANYTHING THAT WE MISSED SOMEHOW.
UM, AND THEN YOU'LL HEAR FROM LISA TALKING ABOUT HOW WE'RE RESPONDING.
WELL, HOW ARE WE USING THE INFORMATION THAT WE'RE GETTING? AND THEN YOU'RE GONNA HEAR ERCOT 1 0 1.
UM, I HAD NO IDEA I'VE LIVED, I MEAN, I'VE BEEN HEARING ABOUT ERCOT, BUT I HAD NO IDEA HOW IT WORKED.
AND WE'RE NOT GONNA GIVE YOU, I THINK YOU COULD TALK LIKE A WHOLE SEMESTER ON ERCOT.
SO I CAN'T ASK ALL THE QUESTIONS, BUT WE'LL JUST DO A BRIEF UPDATE OF THAT.
AND THEN THE BIG, UH, GREAT THING TODAY IS DR. MICHAEL WEBER IS HERE TO IMPART A LOT OF, UH, HIS INFORMATION AND STUDIES, WHICH I THINK IS GREAT.
AND WE'LL TALK MORE RIGHT BEFORE HIS PRESENTATION.
UM, HE REALLY HAS A LOT OF GREAT THINGS TO SAY.
I THINK THEY'LL BE INTERESTING.
WE'RE NOT, WE'RE GONNA BE ABLE TO ASK A LOT OF QUESTIONS.
THE NEXT MEETING, AGAIN, I'M GONNA SAY THIS LIKE SEVEN TIMES 'CAUSE PEOPLE DON'T HEAR IT TILL I SAY IT SEVEN TIMES.
BUT NEXT, THE NEXT MEETING, YOU NEED TO BE HERE BECAUSE THAT'S WHEN YOU ALL ARE GONNA TALK ABOUT ALL OF THIS, AND WE REALLY NEED ALL THE VOICES AT THE TABLE TO HEAR FROM EACH OTHER.
UM, SO THAT'S, THAT'S KINDA WHERE WE'RE GOING.
SO LET ME TALK THROUGH REAL QUICK WHAT WE HEARD AT THE FIRST WORKSHOP.
[00:05:03]
I'M, I GOT CONFUSED HERE A SECOND.BUT BASICALLY, UH, IT THE, WE BASICALLY, YOU LIKED THE MISSION, THE RELIABILITY AND TRANSPARENCY, UH, RE RELIABILITY.
UM, I AM REALLY SORRY I'M MESSING UP HERE.
OH, IS THAT WHAT THE PROBLEM WAS? OKAY.
SO, UM, FOR THOSE WHO HAVE NOT PARTICIPATED IN PREVIOUS RESOURCE GENERATION PLANS, AUSTIN ENERGY IS WRITING A NEW PLAN, NOT JUST UPDATING THE OLD ONE.
UM, AND THESE WORKSHOPS ARE GONNA BE ABLE TO DO THAT.
SO WE WANTED TO TAKE OUT OUR TIME OUT TODAY.
BASICALLY WE LEARNED FROM THE LAST MEETING THAT, UM, THERE'S AGREEMENT WITH THE MISSION PILLARS OF SUSTAINABILITY, RELIABILITY, AND AFFORDABILITY.
BUT WE ALSO HEARD ABOUT THAT EQUITY WAS GONNA BE REALLY IMPORTANT IN THIS PROCESS.
AND SO IS TRANSPARENCY AND COMMUNICATION.
UH, WITH, IN ADDITION TO THESE PILLARS FOR SUSTAIN SUSTAINABILITY INNOVATION, WE HEARD THAT Y'ALL WANT AUSTIN ENERGY TO TAKE A HOLISTIC APPROACH WHEN APPROACHING SOLUTIONS TO PROBLEMS AND TO PRIORITIZE FLEXIBILITY OVER SPECIFICITY.
AND WE HEARD MULTIPLE GROUPS MENTION CRADLE TO GRAVE OR LIFECYCLE ASSESSMENTS AS METHODS TO MEASURE EQUITY CONTINUED TO BE A THEME THROUGHOUT THE DISCUSSION.
AND IT WAS NOT JUST EQUITY WITH AFFORDABILITY OR LOCATION, IT WAS ALSO ON RELIABILITY.
THOSE THAT ARE MOST VULNERABLE ARE THOSE SOMETIMES WITH THE LEAST INCOME.
AND SO RELIABILITY IS IMPORTANT PART OF THAT.
UM, LASTLY, YOU ALL RECOGNIZE THAT A HUNDRED PERCENT RELIABILITY IS LIKELY NOT ENTIRELY ATTAINABLE.
HOWEVER, TRANSPORTATION TRANSPARENCY AND COMMUNICATIONS WERE NOTED HERE AS WELL.
AND YOU WERE ALL ENCOURAGED AUSTIN ENERGY TO BE MORE PREDICTABLE.
WE HEARD A LOT OF GREAT FEEDBACK AT OUR, OUR WORKSHOP.
UM, AND UH, WE ALSO HEARD THAT, UH, WE WENT TO THE EUC AND AT THE EUC, THEY EMPHASIZED THE IMPORTANCE OF KEEPING AUSTIN ENERGY PUBLIC.
AND YOU'RE GONNA HEAR A LITTLE BIT MORE ABOUT THAT.
UM, AND THEY WERE CONCERNED ABOUT THE PILLARS AND AGREEING THAT EQUITY SHOULD BE TOP OF MIND.
MANAGING RISK IS PART OF THE WORK AND THE CHALLENGES THAT BALANCE BETWEEN ALL THE DIFFERENT THINGS.
YOU CAN'T BE A HUNDRED PERCENT RELIABLE, A HUNDRED PERCENT AFFORDABLE AND A HUNDRED PERCENT SUSTAINABLE.
WE'RE GONNA HAVE TO BALANCE ALL OF THOSE KINDS OF THINGS.
AGAIN, PREDICTABILITY IS GREAT, BUT IS IT ALWAYS FEASIBLE? AND THEN TRANSPARENCY.
SO WITH THAT, UM, I'M GOING TO TURN THIS OVER TO LISA.
WHAT ARE YOU DOING WITH ALL THAT INFORMATION? OOPS, SORRY.
YEAH, SO AS LINDA MENTIONED, WE'RE NOT ONLY TAKING YOUR FEEDBACK TO THE ELECTRIC UTILITY COMMISSION, BUT ALSO TO THE CITY COUNCIL.
AND IT IS SHAPING THE WORK THAT WE'RE DOING EVERY DAY.
SO EVERYONE, I'M LISA MARTIN, AUSTIN ENERGY'S CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER.
IT'S SO GREAT TO SEE ALL OF YOU HERE AGAIN TODAY.
AS WE LISTEN TO WHAT YOU HAVE TO SAY, WE ARE TAKING YOUR FEEDBACK TO HEART.
IT IS SHAPING OUR WORK AND OUR DISCUSSIONS SPECIFICALLY WITH REGARDS TO THE RESOURCE GENERATION PLAN EVERY DAY.
SO FOR EXAMPLE, WE HEARD YOU EMPHASIZE EQUITY.
AND SO IN PARTNERSHIP WITH THE CITY OF AUSTIN EQUITY OFFICE, WE ARE ADDING FOCUS POINTS ON EXPLORING EQUITY MEASURES IN A DEEPER AND MORE MEANINGFUL WAY.
YOU SAID LIFECYCLE CONSIDERATIONS ARE IMPORTANT.
AND SEVERAL TIMES, JUST THIS WEEK, I FOUND MYSELF WORKING ALONGSIDE MY TEAM LOOKING TO SEE HOW WE CAN TAKE A WIDER LENS INTO PERSPECTIVE.
AND THEN WHEN WE TOOK YOUR FEEDBACK TO THE ELECTRIC UTILITY COMMISSION, THEY AGREED WITH YOUR FEEDBACK OVERALL.
AND THEY HIGHLIGHTED HOW IMPORTANT IT'S TO MITIGATE THE RISK TO PROTECT THE PUBLIC NATURE OF THE ELECTRIC UTILITY.
ONE COMMISSIONER SAID, AND I QUOTE FOR ME, IT'S ABOUT HOW WE PROTECT THE PUBLIC NATURE OF THE, THE ELECTRIC UTIL, OH, SORRY, IT'S FOR ME, IT'S ABOUT HOW DO WE KEEP AUSTIN ENERGY PUBLIC? HE POINTED OUT THE DIVIDENDS AUSTIN ENERGY GIVES TO THE COMMUNITY.
AND OF COURSE, WE ALL KNOW THAT PART OF THE REASON THAT OUR PUBLIC NATURE GIVES THE COMMUNITY MORE OF AN INVESTMENT, UM, AND AN INTEREST IN THE ABILITY TO BE HEARD.
SO ANYWAY, THANK YOU FOR YOUR FEEDBACK AND PLEASE KEEP IT COMING.
WE'RE GONNA TEACH YOU HOW TO USE THE MICS HERE IN A FEW MINUTES, SO WE'LL SEE HOW WELL I DO.
UM, NEXT YOU'RE GONNA HEAR BRANDON LOPEZ.
HE IS THE MANAGER OF MARKET OPERATIONS.
HE'S GONNA GIVE YOU A REALLY BRIEF OVERVIEW OF HOW ERCOT WORKS.
THAT'S IMPORTANT TO ALL OF THAT.
US, BECAUSE WE HAVE TO WORK WITH ERCOT.
I DID NOT REALIZE HOW CLOSELY THAT WHOLE PROCESS WAS.
SO I'M GONNA TURN IT OVER TO BRANDON.
UH, LIKE SHE SAID, I'M BRANDON LOPEZ AND ENERGY MARKET MANAGER HERE AT AUSTIN ENERGY.
AND, UH, BEFORE I GET STARTED, I ASK A QUESTION.
WHO'S HAPPY THAT IT'S FRIDAY? I'M PRETTY SURE WE CAN GET ALL WELL, ALMOST, SO
[00:10:01]
MAYBE SOME OF Y'ALL GOTTA WORK TOMORROW.OKAY, WELL, UM, ALRIGHT, SO I'M A TEAM OF ABOUT 40 PEOPLE, UM, HERE IN THIS BUILDING UPSTAIRS THAT WE'RE KINDA LIKE ENERGY TRADERS OR WE'RE KINDA LIKE STOCK TRADERS, BUT WE'RE NOT TRADING STOCKS.
WE'RE BUYING AND SELLING ENERGY IN THE ERCOT MARKET.
THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN US AND STOCK TRADERS, WELL THE, THE STOCK MARKET CLOSES EVERY DAY, BUT THE ERCOT MARKET DOES NOT CLOSE.
IT'S OPEN 24 7, 365 DAYS A YEAR.
AND BECAUSE OF THAT, WE HAVE A TEAM OF PEOPLE IN HERE IN THIS BUILDING OR IN SOME OF OUR OTHER CONTROL CENTERS THAT ARE WATCHING ENERGY OR WATCHING THE ERCOT MARKET AND THE PRICE OF ENERGY CHANGE EVERY FIVE MINUTES.
SO ELECTRICITY IN THE ERCOT MARKET, THE PRICE CHANGES EVERY FIVE MINUTES.
AND WE HAVE PEOPLE WATCHING THAT 24 7.
SO I MENTIONED ERCOT A COUPLE OF TIMES ALREADY AND I'M SURE EVERYBODY IN HERE HAS HEARD OF ERCOT, BUT WHO ARE THEY AND WHAT DO THEY DO? ERCOT IS ELECTRIC RELIABILITY COUNCIL OF TEXAS.
THEY OPERATE THE STATEWIDE ELECTRIC GRID.
THEY MAINTAIN SYSTEM-WIDE RELIABILITY.
AND THEY DO THIS BY BALANCING, BY, BY SENDING PRICE SIGNALS IN THE ENERGY MARKET TO BALANCE SUPPLY AND DEMAND.
AUSTIN ENERGY IS LEGALLY REQUIRED TO PARTICIPATE IN THE, TO PARTICIPATE IN THE ERCOT MARKET.
WE DON'T HAVE AN OPTION, IT'S NOT VOLUNTARY.
SO I TALK ABOUT THE ERCOT MARKET AND I'VE TALKED ABOUT AUSTIN ENERGY, BUT WHAT DOES THAT REALLY LOOK LIKE IN, IN SOME PRETTY, SOME PRETTY SIMPLE, SIMPLE TERMS. WELL, LET'S SAY THAT THE ERCOT MARKET IS THIS BUCKET OF WATER YOU SEE IN THE CENTER OF THE SCREEN.
AND LET'S SAY ERCOT JOB IS TO MAINTAIN A CERTAIN LEVEL IN THIS BUCKET OF WATER, LET'S CALL IT 75%.
IT CAN'T BE 76%, IT CAN'T BE 74%, IT HAS TO BE STEADY AT 75%.
SO ERCOT IS BALANCING ENERGY, SUPPLY AND DEMAND.
AND WHEN THEY'RE DOING THAT, WE'RE MAINTAINING THAT LEVEL AT 75%.
THAT'S STABILITY AND THAT'S THE STABILITY THAT ERCOT IS CHARGED WITH AUSTIN ENERGY.
SO WHAT DO WE LOOK LIKE IN THAT, IN THAT GRAND SCHEME, AUSTIN ENERGY IS NOT BALANCING SUPPLY AND DEMAND, BUT WE'RE GENERATING ENERGY OR ELECTRICITY AND WE'RE SELLING IT IN THE ERCOT MARKET AND CONTRIBUTING TO THIS BUCKET.
AT THE SAME TIME, WE'RE BUYING ENERGY FROM THAT MARKET TO PROVIDE TO YOU OUR CUSTOMERS.
THERE ARE CERTAIN TIMES WHEN WE NEED TO BUY MORE ENERGY THAN WE'RE SELLING INTO THE MARKET, RIGHT? AND SO WE'RE GETTING THAT FROM OTHER GENERATORS THROUGH THE MARKET.
BUT KEEP IN MIND THAT ALL THESE OTHER GENERATORS AND COMPANIES ARE DOING THE SAME THING.
THEY HAVE OBLIGATIONS THEY'RE SELLING IN AND BUYING AS WELL.
SO I'M GONNA DRAW YOUR ATTENTION TO THE, THE MAP ON THE BOTTOM RIGHT HAND OF THE SCREEN.
EVERYTHING THAT'S NOT GRAY IS THE ERCOT MARKET AND IT'S A PRETTY BIG TERRITORY.
EACH ONE OF THOSE COLORS REPRESENTS A DIFFERENT PRICE ZONE.
AND THE PRICES CAN BE DIFFERENT IN THE ERCOT MARKET AND IN A, ON A REALLY GOOD DAY, THEY CAN BE THE SAME.
SO IT'S KIND OF HARD TO SEE AND YOU'LL SEE IT A LITTLE BIT MORE, BUT THERE'S A MAROON DOT RIGHT THERE IN THE MIDDLE THAT IS OUR SERVICE TERRITORY.
THE BOTTOM LINE ERCOT IS BALANCING SUPPLY AND DEMAND AND WE'RE BALANCING DOLLARS.
SO LITTLE MORE ABOUT THAT BALANCING ACT.
THE MAP ON THE LEFT IS THE BUCKET.
AND YOU CAN SEE ALL THESE DIFFERENT COLORED DOTS.
EACH ONE OF THOSE DOTS REPRESENTS A GENERATION RESOURCE.
IN AUSTIN ENERGY'S PORTFOLIO MIGHT SURPRISE YOU TO SEE THAT THEY'RE SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE STATE, BUT BECAUSE OF THE DESIGN OF THE MARKET, WE CAN HAVE THEM THROUGHOUT THE STATE AND STILL IN ERCOT SYSTEM CONTRIBUTING OR SELLING POWER.
SO I GONNA DRAW YOUR ATTENTION TO THE YELLOW DOTS WAY OUT IN WEST TEXAS AT SOLAR FARMS, THEY'RE PLACED OUT THERE 'CAUSE THERE'S A LOT OF SOLAR OUT THERE OBVIOUSLY, RIGHT? AND THE GREEN DOTS ARE WIND GENERATORS.
SO UP IN THE PANHANDLE AND WAY DOWN IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY, THE ONES DOWN IN RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN PARTICULAR, THERE'S A LOT OF WIND THAT COMES IN OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
AND SO IT'S BLOWING THOSE TURBINES AND AND ALLOWING US TO GENERATE POWER THROUGHOUT THE STATE.
SO BECAUSE OF THE DESIGN OF THE MARKET, WE CAN HAVE THIS DIVERSITY OF PORTFOLIO.
AND BECAUSE OF THAT WE HAVE A 70% CARBON FREE GENERATION PORTFOLIO, WHICH IS REALLY GOOD AND IT'S INDUSTRY LEADING.
UM, THAT'S HELPING US TO ACCOMPLISH SOME OF OUR RENEWABLE GOALS.
BUT THERE'S A DOWNSIDE TO THAT OBVIOUSLY, RIGHT? THERE'S SOME GIVE AND TAKE THE, BECAUSE THESE RESOURCES ARE OUT AWAY FROM, I GUESS YOU COULD CALL IT LOAD CENTERS, RIGHT? THE ENERGY NEEDS TO GET TO WHERE THE DEMAND IS.
AND OBVIOUSLY THAT'S OUTSIDE OF OUR TERRITORY OR OUTSIDE OF OUR, OUR PRICE ZONE.
SO WHEN YOU'RE TRYING TO GET THAT ENERGY IN, YOU'RE BRINGING IT IN FROM THESE OTHER PRICE ZONES AND THAT CAN CREATE A LITTLE BIT OF RISK.
AND SO YOU'RE PROBABLY THINKING RIGHT NOW, WELL HOW CAN THAT BE IF WE'RE ALL PUTTING INTO THE SAME BUCKET AND WE'RE ALL GETTING OUTTA THE SAME BUCKET ENERGY, HOW CAN THE PRICE BE DIFFERENT? AND THERE'S A NUMBER OF DIFFERENT FACTORS THAT CAN AFFECT PRICE.
SO WE'LL JUST, JUST TALK ABOUT ONE OF 'EM REAL QUICK.
AND I'M SURE EVERYBODY'S FAMILIAR WITH THESE PICTURES, RIGHT? WE'VE ALL BEEN THERE CONGESTION.
[00:15:01]
THAT YOU'RE TRYING TO GET ACROSS AUSTIN AND YOU HAVE TO PICK UP YOUR KIDS OR MEET A CLIENT ON THE OTHER SIDE OF TOWN AND LO AND BEHOLD IT'S FIVE O'CLOCK ON A WEEKDAY AND YOU JUMP IN YOUR CAR AND YOU START TRAVELING ACROSS AUSTIN.AND AS YOU GET DOWN 35, IT GETS MORE AND MORE CONGESTED AND YOU START TO SLOW DOWN, RIGHT? THE SAME THING HAPPENS WITH THE ELECTRICITY.
WHEN WE DON'T HAVE ENOUGH GENERATION IN OUR PRICE ZONE OR IN OUR SERVICE TERRITORY, WE'RE REACHING INTO THAT BUCKET IN THESE OTHER PRICE ZONES.
AND THAT ENERGY HAS TO GET TO US AND IT CAN OVERLOAD POWER LINES AS WELL.
BUT WHAT ARE YOU GONNA DO SITTING IN TRAFFIC? YOU'RE GONNA LOOK FOR AN ALTERNATIVE.
HOPEFULLY YOU DON'T CUT ACROSS DOWNTOWN 'CAUSE THAT NEVER WORKS.
BUT UM, SO MAYBE YOU DECIDE TO TAKE THE TOLL ROAD AND YOU JUMP ON THE TOLL ROAD AND YOU ZIP ACROSS TOWN AND YOU GET THERE IN TIME AND YOU PICK UP YOUR KIDS OR YOU MEET YOUR CLIENT AND EVERYTHING'S GREAT.
BUT WHAT DID THAT DO FOR YOUR COMMUTE? YOU PAID A PREMIUM TO GET ACROSS TOWN.
THAT'S MORE THAN IF YOU WOULD'VE MAYBE HAD YOUR NEIGHBORHOOD OR YOUR MAYBE HAD YOUR KIDS IN YOUR NEIGHBORHOOD OR YOUR BUSINESS MEETING IN YOUR NEIGHBORHOOD AND YOU COULD HAVE JUST DRIVEN A BLOCK.
THE SAME THING WITH IMPORTING ENERGY INTO OUR PRICE ZONE.
WHEN OUR GENERATION RESOURCES ARE MAXED OUT AND WE REACH INTO THAT BUCKET, WE'RE BRINGING ENERGY IN FROM OTHER PRICE ZONES.
AND THAT CONGESTION CAUSES PRICE VOLATILITY.
SO I TALKED ABOUT BEING IN THE BUILDING 24 7, 365 DAYS A YEAR WATCHING THE ERCOT MARKET.
WHAT IF WE DIDN'T HAVE THAT? WHAT IF WE DIDN'T HAVE ANYBODY WATCHING THE MARKET FOR US AND WE JUST REACHED INTO THE ERCOT MARKET OR THAT BUCKET TO GET ENERGY? WHAT WOULD THAT COST LOOK LIKE IN THE PREVIOUS 12 MONTHS THAT COST WAS $1.1 BILLION WITH A B.
BUT WE HAVE GENERATING ASSETS BOTH INSIDE AND OUTSIDE OF OUR PRICE ZONE.
AND WE HAVE, WE HAVE A TEAM WATCHING THE PRICE CHANGE EVERY FIVE MINUTES WATCHING THE ERCOT MARKET MAKING MOVES.
AND BECAUSE OF THAT, WE'RE ABLE TO CUT THAT POWER SUPPLY COST IN HALF, WHICH ALLOWS US TO PASS SAVINGS ONTO OUR CUSTOMERS.
SO WHAT ARE SOME KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM THE RESOURCE GENERATION PLAN? ONE, AS I MENTIONED, PARTICIPATION IN THE ERCOT MARKET IS MANDATORY AND WE HAVE TO FOLLOW ALL THE RULES AND GUIDELINES IN THE ERCOT MARKET.
AND LIKE ANY MARKET, THE ERCOT MARKET HAS RISKS AND BENEFITS.
ANY MOVES WE MAKE COULD HAVE A TRADE OFF POSITIVE OR NEGATIVE.
AND FOR THE GENERATION PLAN ITSELF, THE DECISIONS YOU MAKE NOW CAN AFFECT THE TOOLS THAT AUSTIN ENERGY HAS TO MINIMIZE RISK AND MAXIMIZE THE BENEFITS FOR YOUR UTILITY.
DON'T GO TOO FAR HERE A SECOND.
UH, LIKE I SAID, WE COULD PROBABLY TALK ABOUT THIS FOR A WHOLE SEMESTER, BUT ARE THERE ANY, SOME BIG QUESTIONS OR CLARIFICATIONS YOU NEED OUT OF WHAT BRANDON SAID? WE COULD TAKE A COUPLE.
AH, I THINK YOU'RE GOOD BRANDON.
PUSH, PUSH THE BUTTON AND SEE WHEN IT'S READ AND THEN MAKE SURE YOU TURN IT BACK OFF.
UM, SO I JUST HAD A QUESTION ABOUT THE OTHER FACTORS THAT IMP OR THAT IMPACT LIKE PRICE INCREASES OR LIKE THE PRICE FLUCTUATION.
SO COULD YOU JUST BRIEFLY LIKE SAY WHAT THE OTHER ONES COULD BE BESIDES CONGESTION? SO MAINTENANCE OR SUPPLY ON THE SYSTEM, RIGHT? IF YOU LOSE A POWER PLANT AT THE WRONG TIME OF DAY, THAT CAN CAUSE THE PRICE TO GO HAYWIRE.
AND IT DEPENDS ON WHAT PART OF THE STATE IT'S IN.
IT'S REALLY, YOU KNOW, THERE'S A LOT OF DIFFERENT SITUATIONS WHERE A POWER PLANT OUTAGE, THE SIZE OF THAT POWER PLANT, IF IT'S SMALL IT'S NEGLIGIBLE.
BUT THAT'S KIND OF THE BENEFIT OF THE ERCOT MARKET.
IT'S REALLY BIG AND THAT BIG ISLAND OF POWER OF GENERATION IS REALLY STABLE.
WHAT IS YOUR PREDICTION IF ERCOT CONNECTS TO, SO THE, SO THE QUESTION IS WHAT'S YOUR PREDICTION? IF ERCOT CONNECTS TO THE LARGER US ELECTRIC GRID, WHAT'S THE IMPACT? WHAT'S THE IMPACT? AND IF YOU DON'T KNOW THAT, YOU DON'T HAVE TO ANSWER, WE CAN COME BACK.
I DON'T, I DON'T REALLY HAVE A PREDICTION FOR IT, BUT YOU KNOW, THERE'S A LOT OF DIFFERENT OPINIONS AND I'D SAY THERE'S BENEFITS AND RISKS TO DOING THAT.
AND THAT, THAT'S, I'D STOP RIGHT THERE.
'CAUSE THAT'S A, THAT'S A BIG, THAT'S A BIG STUDY OR A BIG LOT OF OPINIONS ON THAT, RIGHT? ALL RIGHT, I'M GONNA TAKE TWO MORE AND THEN WE'RE GONNA STOP.
YEAH, WHAT, WHAT PORTION OF THE SAVINGS ARE FROM BOSTON ENERGY SELLING, UH, SELLING ELECTRICITY INTO THE MARKET? SO WHAT, WHAT'S THE PROPORTION OF SAVINGS WHEN WE WENT FROM A BILLION TO 0.58 ON SELLING OUR GENERATION INTO THE SYSTEM? SO YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT JUST LIKE THE IMPACT WAS
[00:20:01]
ROUGHLY CUTTING THE POWER SUPPLY COST BY 50%.AND THAT'S FROM SELLING IT IN OR FROM BUYING IT FROM COST.
IT, IT'S, IT IS A COMBINATION OF THINGS, RIGHT? IT'S, IT'S, THERE'S MARKET TOOLS, THERE'S HEDGES OR TRADES, UM, SELLING ENERGY.
AND, AND THAT, THAT ACTIVITY VARIES THROUGHOUT THE YEAR OR FROM YEAR TO YEAR DEPENDING ON THE, THE, UM, THE, THE WEATHER EVEN.
SO I DON'T REALLY HAVE A, LIKE A SOLID NUMBER FOR YOU.
WE DO SELL INTO THE, WE DO SELL END QUITE A BIT TO THE MARKET.
YES, QUITE A BIT, QUITE A BIT INTO THE MARKET.
A GOOD ANALOGY AS FAR AS TRAFFIC, CAN YOU TALK ABOUT TRANSMISSION CONGESTION AND WHAT IS BEING DONE TO RELIEVE THAT AT THE ERCOT LEVEL? HOW MUCH THEY'RE BUILDING, UM, HOW LONG IT TAKES TO GET THAT TRANSMISSION, THOSE TRANSMISSION BOTTLENECKS THAT CAN INCREASE OUR PRICES ALLEVIATED? YEAH, THAT'S PROBABLY, UM, A QUESTION FOR SOMEBODY ELSE IN THE ROOM.
I'M, I'M LOCKED INTO THE MARKET HERE IN THIS ROOM.
WELL, AND IT MIGHT BE PRETTY COMPLICATED AND WE CAN GET AN ANSWER BACK.
I CAN WRITE THAT DOWN IF YOU, OR IF YOU WANNA TAKE A CRACK AT IT.
YEAH, I CAN TAKE A QUICK, A QUICK MARK AT, UM, A ENERGY HAVING BOTH TRANSMISSION AND GENERATION SIDE, WE HAVE TO KEEP SOME OF THAT INFORMATION SEPARATE SO THAT THEY DON'T, UM, HAVE THE ABILITY TO GET INFORMATION INSIDE THAT IS NOT AVAILABLE TO ALL PARTIES IN THE MARKET.
SO BRANDON DOESN'T GET TO KNOW A LOT ABOUT TRANSMISSION, BUT UH, DAVE TUTTLE'S QUESTION'S REALLY MORE ABOUT IN GENERAL.
AND SO ERCOT IS ALWAYS DOING, UH, STUDIES TO ASSESS THE AMOUNT OF TRANSMISSION CONGESTION THERE IS, YOU KNOW, AND HOW WE CAN MORE EFFICIENTLY MOVE POWER ACROSS THE STATE.
AND, AND SO IT'S, IT'S HIGHLY SIGNIFICANT.
WE CAN CERTAINLY GET INFORMATION TO SHARE LIKE ACTUAL NUMBERS, BUT IT'S, IT'S A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF COST, A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF CONGESTION AND THE TIMELINES FOR UM, UM, RELIEVING SOME OF THAT CONGESTION CAN BE A LONG WAYS OUT, TAKES A LONG TIME TO GET, YOU KNOW, THE, THE, ALL THE DUCKS IN A ROW TO BE ABLE TO BUILD MORE TRANSMISSION CAPACITY.
UM, AND THEN BECAUSE OF THE WAY THE MARKET WORKS, A LOT OF PEOPLE WILL THEN SAY, OH THAT'S BEING BUILT.
THAT'S WHERE WE'RE GONNA CITE OUR NEW SUPPLY.
AND IT KIND OF STARTS THE, THE UH, CHICKEN AND EGG PROBLEM ALL OVER AGAIN.
SO WE'LL GET SOME MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION, BUT DAVE TITLE'S TALKING ABOUT SOMETHING THAT IS A SIGNIFICANT ISSUE THAT'S ALWAYS BEING WORKED ON MARKET.
OKAY, WE'LL TAKE THAT AS AN ACTION ITEM.
UM, FOR IN BETWEEN MEETINGS OR SOMEWHERE IN THAT PROCESS.
I, THERE AGAIN IN FRONT OF YOU ARE TWO THINGS.
SO ON YOUR DESK, SO YOU CAN LOOK AT THAT ONE IS A COPY OF THE SLIDES.
UM, THERE'S ONE SLIDE ON EACH PAGE.
YOU CAN TAKE NOTES, YOU CAN ASK QUESTIONS, ALL OF THOSE KINDS OF THINGS.
UM, AND THE OTHER ONE IS I DIDN'T GET MY QUESTION ANSWERED, SO IF YOU'VE GOT MORE ERCOT QUESTIONS, WRITE IT ON THAT SECOND ONE AND WE'LL COLLECT IT AT THE END OF THIS MEETING, OKAY? BECAUSE WE'RE, WE'RE GONNA TRY TO HONOR YOUR TIME AND KEEP IT GOING.
SO, UM, ALTHOUGH YOU'RE SITTING IN GROUPS TODAY WAS NOT A LOT OF GROUP DISCUSSION WHAT'S GONNA HAPPEN NEXT TIME GROUP DISCUSSION, WE WANT YOU HERE.
UM, SO, BUT DR. MICHAEL WEBER IS HERE TODAY.
HE'S FROM THE WEBER ENERGY GROUP FROM THE COCKRELL SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING AT UT AUSTIN.
A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW YOU HIM ON THAT.
UM, HE'S GONNA GIVE YOU A DEEP DIVE, MEANING HE'S GONNA SPEND ABOUT 40 MINUTES TALKING AND I'D REALLY LIKE YOU TO HOLD YOUR QUESTIONS.
I MEAN IF IT IS LIKE HE'S GOING AND IT IS JUST SO UNCLEAR, RAISE YOUR HAND AND WE'RE GONNA CALL ON YOU.
BUT I'M GONNA TRY TO GET THE QUESTIONS AT THE END OF HIS PRESENTATION AND THAT'S WHY WE GAVE YOU THE POWERPOINT PRESENTATION THERE.
AND YOU CAN TAKE NOTES, MAKE YOURSELF A QUESTION SO WE CAN GO BACK.
OKAY? SO THAT'S WHAT'S THERE, UH, IN FRONT OF YOU.
SO PLEASE HOLD YOUR QUESTIONS AND THEN WITH THAT I'M GONNA TURN THIS OVER TO DR. WEBER AND THEN WE'LL HAVE A QUESTION AND ANSWER PERIOD FOR THE REMAINING PART OF THE TIME.
OKAY, IT IS GOOD TO SEE EVERYBODY, SOME FAMILIAR FACES AND NAMES AND QUESTIONS OUT THERE.
SEE IF I CAN GET THIS GOING FORWARD.
SO I'LL TALK MORE SPECIFICALLY ABOUT AUSTIN ENERGY AND MY NAME'S MICHAEL.
WE HEARD I'M A PROFESSOR AT UT IN ENGINEERING AND ALSO THE OBJ SCHOOL OF PUBLIC AFFAIRS AND I'M ACCOMPANIED BY TWO TEAM MEMBERS, EMILY AUM OVER HERE.
SHE'S A MASTER STUDENT AT UT AND THEN DR.
GLASER GOT HER PHD IN ENVIRONMENTAL WATER RESOURCE ENGINEERING AT UT.
NOW AS A RESEARCH ASSOCIATE LEADING SOME OF THIS RESEARCH, EMILY'S DOING A LOT OF ANALYSIS SO THEY'RE HERE TO ANSWER THE QUESTIONS.
I DON'T KNOW HOW TO ANSWER BECAUSE THEY'VE GOT THE DETAILED VIEW ON THAT.
I'M A FAST TALKER, I'VE GOT A LOT OF SLIDES, YOU'VE GOT THE SLIDES THERE.
WE'LL HAVE PLENTY OF TIME FOR Q AND A AFTER THAT.
AND AS YOU HEARD FROM LINDA, MAYBE SAVE YOUR QUESTIONS FOR THE END UNLESS I'M SAYING SOMETHING THAT'S OBVIOUSLY WRONG OR REALLY CONFUSING, YOU CAN ASK FOR CLARIFICATION ON THAT.
OTHERWISE I'LL SORT OF BLAST THROUGH THE SLIDES AND THEN WE'LL TALK MORE.
I WILL TAKE A MOMENT THOUGH TO ANSWER DAVE TUTTLE'S QUESTION BECAUSE I THINK THE TIMING HE'S ASKING ABOUT ARE WHAT ERCOT ISS DOING.
THE WAY I THINK ABOUT IT IS IN TERMS OF TIME
[00:25:01]
AND TIMING AND DURATION, HOW LONG IT TAKES TO DO THINGS.AND THAT MIGHT BE USEFUL CONTEXT BECAUSE THAT SETS THE STAGE FOR WHAT'S HAPPENING IN AUSTIN AND IN TEXAS AND AROUND THE WORLD RIGHT NOW.
NEW DEMAND OR THE BUILDING A THING THAT REQUIRES ELECTRICITY TAKES LIKE ONE TO TWO YEARS TO BUILD, I THINK LIKE A BIG DATA CENTER OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT.
NEW SUPPLY TAKES LIKE TWO TO FOUR YEARS TO BUILD.
I THINK LIKE A SOLAR FARM OR WIND FARM OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT.
NEW TRANSMISSION TAKES LIKE FOUR TO SIX YEARS TO BUILD.
SO THINGS AREN'T ALL MOVING AT THE SAME PACE.
AND THAT'S PART OF THE SITUATION IN THE CONTEXT FOR US RIGHT NOW.
AND THAT TRANSMISSION, IF IT TAKES FOUR TO SIX YEARS TO BUILD AN ERCOT, THAT'S BECAUSE ERCOT IS REALLY FAST AT IT COMPARED TO OTHER PLACES WHERE IT'S LIKE 10 TO 20 YEARS.
SO IT ONLY TAKES FOUR TO SIX YEARS BUT IT STILL TAKES A WHILE.
AND THESE MISMATCHES IN TIMING REALLY SET THE STAGE FOR SOME OF THE CHALLENGES THAT WE FACE HERE IN AUSTIN AS WELL AS EVERYWHERE ELSE, WHICH IS OUR HUNGER FOR ELECTRICITY IS HERE AND NOW AND MOVING MORE QUICKLY THAN OUR ABILITY TO MEET AT SOMETIMES.
SO WE GOTTA PICK UP THE PACE ON SOME OTHER PARTS.
THAT'S JUST A A GREAT QUESTION.
I THINK THAT SETS UP THE FRAMEWORK FOR WHAT WE MIGHT TALK ABOUT.
SO LET'S TALK ABOUT AUSTIN ENERGY AND RESOURCES AND GENERATION AND CLIMATE PROTECTION PLAN.
LOOKING OUT TO 2035 AND START WITH AUSTIN ENERGY BASICS, REPEATING WHAT YOU'VE ALREADY SEEN AS A PROFESSOR.
I LIKE TO TALK A LOT AND REPEAT MYSELF.
SO YOU'RE GONNA GET A LOT OF REPETITION, A LOT.
UH, AND THIS IS JUST SORT OF MAP, SAME THING YOU JUST SAW FROM BRANDON.
AUSTIN ENERGY SERVICE AREA KIND OF MATCHES TRAVIS COUNTY, BUT NOT REALLY.
IT DOESN'T HAVE ALL THE COUNTY, IT'S GOT A LITTLE BIT OF WILLIAMSON COUNTY, KINDA LIKE ERCOT KIND OF MATCHES TEXAS BUT NOT EXACTLY YOU CAN THINK OF THAT FOR AUSTIN ENERGY.
AND IT HAS UH, OVER HALF A MILLION CUSTOMERS THINK OF A CUSTOMER AS A METER.
AND SO THAT MIGHT BE A HOUSEHOLD AND THERE'S A FEW PEOPLE PER METER, LIKE TWO TO THREE PEOPLE.
SO YOU CAN IMAGINE THAT'S LIKE A MILLION PEOPLE OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT SERVED BY THE HALF MILLION OR SO METERS AND EARNS ABOUT $1.5 BILLION IN REVENUES.
SO IT'S A, IT'S A BIG BUSINESS AND IMPORTANT UTILITY.
ONE OF THE BIGGEST UTILITIES IN THE UNITED STATES IN FACT AND HAS THOUSANDS OF EMPLOYEES.
SO EMPLOYEES, A LOT OF PEOPLE YOU MIGHT KNOW, PEOPLE WHO WORK HERE, THEY'RE IN THE ROOM, SOME OF THEM AND THEY MIGHT BE YOUR NEIGHBORS OR THEY'RE MEMBERS OF YOUR COMMUNITY AND HAS A BUDGET THAT MATCHES ROUGHLY WHAT THE REVENUES ARE.
THE PEAK DEMAND IN 2023 WAS ABOUT THREE GIGAWATTS, 3000 MEGAWATTS, 3064 MEGAWATTS.
YOU'RE GONNA HEAR MEGAWATTS A LOT AND GIGAWATTS, A GIGAWATT IS A THOUSAND MEGAWATTS AND YOU'VE PROBABLY HEARD OF WATTS OR KILOWATTS BEFORE.
SO A MEGAWATT IS A MILLION WATTS AND A GIGAWATT IS A BILLION WATT.
AND THOSE OLD FASHIONED LIGHT BULBS, YOU MIGHT NOT EVEN OWN THEM ANYMORE.
THOSE INCANDESCENT LIGHT BULBS WERE LIKE 20 WATTS TO A HUNDRED WATTS, SOMETHING LIKE THAT.
SO YOU CAN GET A SENSE BASED ON THE OLD LIGHT BULBS THAT HOPEFULLY YOU'VE REPLACED WITH LEDS.
AND THAT GIGAWATT IS A UNIT THAT'S VERY SPECIFICALLY MEANINGFUL IN A SCIENTIFIC WAY, WHICH IS THE RATE AT WHICH WE ARE USING ELECTRICITY.
SO A GIGAWATT MEANS WE'RE USING A LOT OF POWER AT THE MOMENT.
AND THEN THERE'S HOW MUCH ENERGY USE OVERALL IS MEASURED IN GIGAWATT HOURS OR TERAWATT HOURS.
SO WE USE 14 TERAWATT HOURS OR 14,000 PLUS A GIGAWATT HOURS AND THAT'S A FUNCTION OF HOW MANY GIGAWATTS FOR HOW MANY HOURS.
AND IF YOU WANT TO GO BACK TO CALCULUS, IF YOU WANT TO HAVE UH, SORT OF TRAUMATIC FLASHBACKS, IT'S THE AREA UNDER THE CURVE OF YOUR POWER AND GIGAWATTS OVER TIME.
SO FOR THE ENGINEERS IN THE ROOM, THAT MIGHT HAVE BEEN FUN.
WHAT I JUST SAID, FOR EVERYONE ELSE, I APOLOGIZE.
BUT THE, WE'RE GONNA HEAR GIGAWATTS IN GIGAWATT HOURS, GIGAWATTS OR YOU'LL HEAR MEGAWATTS IN MEGAWATT HOURS.
THERE'S THE RATE AT WHICH WE USE ENERGY IN GIGAWATTS OR MEGAWATTS AND THERE'S HOW MUCH ENERGY WE USE OVERALL IN MEGAWATT HOURS OR GIGAWATT HOURS AND WE HAVE TO SATISFY BOTH HERE IN AUSTIN ENERGY SERVICE AREA, WHICH IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE SOMETIMES YOUR GIGAWATTS AREN'T ALWAYS AVAILABLE WHEN YOU NEED IT, BUT YOU NEED IT EVENTUALLY.
AND THAT'S ESPECIALLY TO, FOR EXAMPLE, LIKE CHARGING YOUR PHONE OR YOUR LAPTOP OR YOUR ELECTRIC CAR OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT.
SO THERE COULD BE SOME MISMATCHES IN TIME, NOT JUST THE MISMATCH IN TIME THAT DAVE TUTTLE WAS KIND OF HINTING AT HOW LONG DOES IT TAKE TO BUILD A DATA CENTER VERSUS A POWER PLANT VERSUS TRANSMISSION, BUT ALSO THE MISMATCHES IN TIME BETWEEN WHEN YOUR WIND OR SUNSHINE AVAILABLE AND WHEN YOU NEED YOUR ELECTRICITY.
SO THERE'S A LOT OF MISMATCHES IN TIME AND SOME MISMATCHES IN LOCATION BECAUSE YOUR POWER PLANT MIGHT NOT BE WHERE YOU'RE USING THE ENERGY SO YOU MIGHT HAVE WIRES AND POLES TO MOVE IT.
SO THERE'S ALL SORTS OF SPATIAL TEMPORAL THINGS OR THAT WEAR MATTERS AND THE WHEN MATTERS OF ENERGY AND ALSO ENERGY HAS TO BALANCE THAT IN REAL TIME ALL THE TIME.
AS YOU HEARD, THERE IS A DIVERSE UH, MIX OF RESOURCES.
YOU SAW THIS UH, MAP ON THE LEFT BUT THEN CERTAINLY DONUT CHART TO SHOW YOU HOW IT'S BALANCED OUT.
THERE ARE A LOT OF RESOURCES HERE IN THE AUSTIN AREA OR CLOSE TO AUSTIN, UH, PRIMARILY NATURAL GAS AND SOLAR.
AND THEN THERE ARE OTHER POWER PLANTS FAR AWAY.
THE WIND TENDS TO BE FAR AWAY JUST BECAUSE IT'S NOT VERY WINDY IN AUSTIN, BUT IT IS VERY WINDY ALONG THE COAST AND THE WEST TEXAS AND THE PANHANDLE.
AND WE HAVE SOME SUNSHINE IN AUSTIN.
SO WE GOT SOLAR IN AUSTIN AS WELL AS IN WEST TEXAS.
WE'RE REALLY UH, SUNNY NUCLEAR ON THE COAST.
A COAL PLANT BETWEEN HERE IN AUSTIN, UH, HERE IN HOUSTON, EXCUSE ME.
AND THEN THE BIOMASS PLANT IN NACO DOJA.
THERE'S NOT MUCH HYDRO IN TEXAS.
HYDRO IS FALLING WATER AND IF YOU'RE IN A PLACE OF THE WORLD, SAY ICELAND OR NORWAY OR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHERE WE HAVE A LOT OF HYDRO, YOU TEND TO USE HYDRO IF YOU HAVE IT.
WE DON'T HAVE THAT MUCH AVAILABLE IN TEXAS BECAUSE YOU NEED ALTITUDE DIFFERENCES IN WATER AND WE TEND TO HAVE EITHER ONE OR THE OTHER IS WHAT IT WAY IT WORKS IN TEXAS.
[00:30:01]
THE GOOD NEWS IS IT'S MOSTLY CARBON FREE.LIKE WE'RE WAY AHEAD OF INDUSTRY AVERAGE.
SO AUSTIN ENERGY'S MIXES CLEANER THAN SAY YOUR TYPICAL UTILITY AND CLEANER THAN IN TEXAS IN GENERAL CLEANER THAN ON AVERAGE, FAR CLEANER THAN SAY RUST BELT OR MIDWEST AREAS THAT ARE VERY COLD DEPENDENT.
SO THIS IS GOOD NEWS THAT IT'S PRETTY CLEAN AND A DIVERSE, IT'S DIVERSE IN TERMS OF FUEL MIX AND LOCATION, WHICH IS GOOD AND BAD.
SO THIS IS THE MIX OF WHAT WE GOT IN AUSTIN, RIGHT? GOOD NEWS.
WE SHOULD BE HAPPY ABOUT THAT.
THE CHALLENGE BEFORE US, US AUSTIN ENERGY, US AUSTIN CITIZENS AND AND CUSTOMERS AND CONSUMERS, ANYONE ELSE IS THAT THE GRID HAS TO EXPAND AND DECARBONIZE WHILE THE WORLD IS WARMING.
SO THE WORLD IS WARMING AND THAT INTRODUCES ALL SORTS OF CHALLENGES TO THE GRID IN TERMS OF THE NEED FOR MORE AIR CONDITIONING FOR EXAMPLE, AND MORE VARIABILITY IN DIFFERENT SUPPLIES.
IF POWER PLANTS GET REALLY HOT, THEY CAN TRIP OFFLINE FOR EXAMPLE.
BUT WE ALSO NEED TO GROW THE GRID TO ACCOMMODATE NEW LOADS.
I SEE YOUR SHIRT ELECTRIC BETTER THAN GAS, WHICH IS CORRECT.
SO WE GOT ELECTRIC CARS COMING ON, WHICH ARE BETTER THAN GASOLINE CARS.
SO WE GOT NEW LOADS COMING ON.
A LOAD IS SOMETHING THAT CONSUMES ELECTRICITY.
SO WE HAVE NEW ELECTRIC LOADS LIKE CARS AND DATA CENTERS AND ELECTRIFIED INDUSTRY.
SO WE NEED TO EXPAND THE GRID AND DECARBONIZE IT, MAKE IT CLEANER.
BY DECARBONIZING I MEAN REDUCING THE EMISSIONS, ESPECIALLY WITH COAL AND THE NATURAL GASES AFTER THAT IN TERMS OF UH, CARBON EMISSIONS AND THEN THE WORLD IS WARMING.
SO WE HAVE TO ACCOMMODATE THE FACT THAT THE WEATHER WILL BE DIFFERENT THAN WHAT WE PLANNED FOR WHEN WE BUILT A LOT OF THE POWER PLANTS IN THE 1970S.
THE 1970S, UH, WAS A GREAT DECADE.
IT'S GOT GREAT MUSIC AND GREAT FASHION, BUT IT ALSO HAD MILD WEATHER AND IT WAS A RELATIVELY WET DECADE IN TEXAS HISTORY.
AND SO IT IT, IT'S IMPORTANT BECAUSE A LOT OF WHAT WE DID IN THE SEVENTIES WAS PLANNING FOR THE FUTURE AND THAT WEATHER IS GONE, THE WATER RESOURCE IS DIFFERENT, THE POPULATION'S MORE THAN DOUBLED AND IT'S HOTTER.
AND SO THAT'S SOMETHING WE THINK ABOUT AS WE BUILD MORE RESOURCES IS THAT WE HAVE TO BUILD FOR THE WEATHER OF THE FUTURE, NOT THE WEATHER OF THE PAST.
AND THAT'S THE CHALLENGE BEFORE US EXPAND THE GRID.
DECARBONIZE THE GRID OPERATE IN A WARMER WORLD.
AND THAT IS MAYBE ONE WAY OF THINKING ABOUT THE ENERGY TRANSITION OR I WOULD SAY EXPANDING AND DECARBONIZING THE GRID IN A WARMER WORLD IS ONE PIECE OF THE ENERGY TRANSITION.
AND IN MY OPINION IN THE UNITED STATES WE'RE ABOUT 10 TO 15 YEARS INTO A 30 TO 40 YEAR TRANSITION.
NOW THIS IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE A LOT OF SAY POLICY MAKERS AND POLITICIANS TALK ABOUT THE ENERGY TRANSITION SOMEDAY.
AND I'M LIKE, I THINK IT ALREADY STARTED.
IT ALREADY STARTED AND WE GOT A COUPLE DATA POINTS FOR WHY I THINK THAT ONE IS IN THE UNITED STATES, OUR CO2 EMISSIONS PEAKED AROUND 2006 TO 2008, SO QUITE SOME TIME AGO.
AND THOSE EMISSIONS PEAKED PRIMARILY BECAUSE OF DISPLACING COAL WITH GAS, WIND AND SOLAR.
ALSO A LOT OF EFFICIENCY WITH FUEL ECONOMY STANDARDS AND LIGHT BULB STANDARDS AND INCREASINGLY PUSHING TOWARDS LIKE ELECTRIC VEHICLES INSTEAD OF GASOLINE VEHICLES.
SO WE'VE DONE A VARIETY OF THINGS ON THE CONSUMPTION SIDE WITH LIGHT BULBS AND CARS AND ON THE SUPPLY SIDE WITH WIND, SOLAR AND GAS TURNING OFF COAL TO DECARBONIZE THE ECONOMY.
I MEAN WE'RE NOT DONE BUT WE'RE HEADED THE RIGHT DIRECTION IN THE UNITED STATES BUT IT'LL TAKE ANOTHER COUPLE DECADES SAY.
SO WE'RE ALREADY ROLLING, WHICH IS PRETTY GOOD.
WE ARE NOT THE FASTEST MOVER IN THE WORLD BUT WE'RE ACTUALLY PRETTY FAST.
WE'RE MOVING FASTER THAN EUROPE EXCEPT FOR THE UK.
THE UK IS MOVING FASTER THAN WE ARE.
UH, THEY NOW BASICALLY BARELY USE COAL UH, AND WE MAYBE CAN CATCH THEM AT SOME POINT.
SO THAT IS ALREADY HAPPENING, WE'RE ALREADY ALONG THE PROCESS AND A LOT OF PEOPLE LIKE ME, PROFESSORS AT UNIVERSITIES OR NATIONAL LABS OR SMART STUDENTS OR ANALYTICAL GROUPS AND DIFFERENT AGENCIES ANALYZE WHAT IT MIGHT TAKE TO GET TO A ZERO CARBON OR NET ZERO WORLD.
HOW DO WE DECARBONIZE THE ECONOMY AND WE ALL KIND OF COME TO THE SAME CONCLUSION WHICH IS DOING SO CAN BE DONE AND WE SHOULD DO IT AND THAT WOULD BE ECONOMICALLY BENEFICIAL TO DO SO.
THAT DECARBONIZING ECONOMY IS GOOD FOR US FOR A VARIETY OF REASONS.
AND THERE'S A VARIETY OF TERMS YOU CAN THINK ABOUT.
ONE IS HAVING A CARBON FREE WORLD WHERE THERE'S NO EMISSIONS ANYWHERE OR EVER.
AND ANOTHER CONCEPT IS AROUND CARBON NEUTRAL OR NET ZERO WHERE YOU HAVE EMISSIONS IN ONE PLACE BUT YOU TAKE THOSE EMISSIONS OUT AT ANOTHER PLACE AND MOST ANALYSTS CONCLUDE THAT NET ZERO IS CHEAPER, FASTER, OR MORE EQUITABLE THAN ZERO.
ZERO MEANS YOU NEVER HAVE EMISSIONS.
AND SO I'M TRYING TO THINK OF SOME OPTIONS.
NUCLEAR AND HYDROELECTRIC AND GEOTHERMAL AND WIND AND SOLAR HAVE NO EMISSIONS.
AND SO THOSE ARE ZERO CARBON OPTIONS.
NATURAL GAS HAS EMISSIONS AND SO YOU MIGHT HAVE EMISSIONS WITH NATURAL GAS AND THEN HAVE CARBON REMOVAL OR CARBON CAPTURE TO MAKE IT NET ZERO.
AND THEN WIND AND SOLAR, THE OTHER OPTIONS ARE ZERO.
SO THERE THERE'S SOME TENSION BETWEEN DO YOU HAVE THE ZERO EMISSIONS OPTIONS OR DO YOU HAVE THE NET ZERO OR CARBON NEUTRAL OPTIONS? AND IF YOUR GOAL IS TO OPTIMIZE AROUND LOWEST COST AND SPEED AND EQUITY, MOST OF US CONCLUDE NET ZERO ENDS UP BEING CHEAPER, FASTER, EQUITABLE, MORE SECURE, MORE RELIABLE THAN ZERO.
AND THAT'S AN IMPORTANT DISTINCTION, EXCUSE ME.
UM, AND I'M NOT HERE TO ADVOCATE FOR ONE OR THE OTHER, BUT OUR ANALYSIS AGREES WITH THAT.
AND THAT IS SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND FOR AUSTIN ENERGY FOR ITS RESOURCE MIX, WHICH THEY'LL COME BACK WITH I GUESS IN A FEW MONTHS.
AND THAT THAT'S A JUST IMPORTANT CONCEPT AND WE MIGHT COME BACK TO THAT IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS
[00:35:01]
ABOUT WHAT'S THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN CARBON NEUTRAL AND AND ZERO.SO THOSE ARE THINGS THAT HAVE IN MIND IN MY VIEW.
SO THIS IS MY PERSONAL IDEOLOGY PHILOSOPHY THAT I THINK IT'S IMPORTANT TO DECARBONIZE.
AS I SAID, DOING SO IS GOOD ECONOMICALLY AND ENVIRONMENTALLY.
UM, AND THEN TO RAISE THE QUESTION LIKE WELL WHAT SHOULD WE DO IN A WHAT ORDER? AND THIS IS WHAT I RECOMMEND IS A PRIORITY ORDER, FOUR STEPS.
THE FIRST AND MOST IMPORTANT STEP, THE MOST AFFORDABLE STEP.
THE STEP THAT PAYS FOR ITSELF USUALLY IS EFFICIENCY.
THAT ANY INVESTMENTS WHO MAKE EFFICIENCY USUALLY PAY FOR THEMSELVES.
YOU GET DIMINISHING RETURNS AT SOME POINT.
BUT EFFICIENCY AROUND LIKE FUEL ECONOMY STANDARDS, THE LIGHT BULB EFFICIENCY STANDARDS THAT CAME OUT AT THE END OF THE BUSH ADMINISTRATION WHERE WE REPLACED OUR INCANDESCENT LIGHT BULBS, LEDS, THOSE PAID FOR THEMSELVES, EFFICIENCY IS A REALLY GOOD PLACE TO START.
UM, AND IT'S ALSO LIKE BUILDING CODES.
THERE ARE A LOT OF WAYS EFFICIENCY SHOWS UP AND I SAY THE GOOD NEWS IS AUSTIN ENERGY IS A LEADER ON THIS AND HAS BEEN FOR DECADES.
A LOT OF THE GREEN BUILDING CODES ARE BASED ON THINGS AUSTIN HAD DONE DECADES AGO.
THE BAD NEWS IS SOME OF THE EASY EFFICIENCY'S BEEN DONE SO WE GOTTA WORK A LITTLE HARDER.
THERE'S STILL A LOT TO DO SO I DON'T WANNA UH, BELITTLE OR UNDERMINE THAT APPROACH.
UM, BUT OBVIOUSLY HAVING DONE IT HAS SAVED US SOME MONEY THAT WE CAN NOW USE FOR OTHER THINGS AS WELL.
SO EFFICIENCY IS A PLACE TO START AND UH, WE'VE GOT LEADERSHIP THERE.
THE SECOND THING IS ELECTRIFICATION ELECTRIFY AS MUCH AS YOU CAN, AS MUCH AS IS REASONABLE.
UH, I'VE ALREADY TALKED ABOUT LIGHT DUTY VEHICLES, THOSE ARE A VERY OBVIOUS THING TO ELECTRIFY.
THERE ARE OTHER LOADS MAYBE LIKE HOME HEATING OR HOME COOKING THAT COULD BE ELECTRIFIED AS WELL.
UH, THERE'S ALSO ELECTRIFIED INDUSTRY.
WE DON'T HAVE A LOT OF INDUSTRY IN AUSTIN BUT IN TEXAS WE HAVE A LOT OF INDUSTRY.
SO YOU COULD ELECTRIFY OIL AND GAS OR CHEMICALS OR SMELTING OR OTHER THINGS AND ELECTRIFYING TENDS TO REDUCE EMISSIONS, LOWER COST, IMPROVE EFFICIENCY.
SO ELECTRIFICATION ISS QUITE GOOD AND IF YOU ELECTRIFY THE RIGHT WAY, YOU GET THAT FIRST GOAL OF EFFICIENCY.
LIKE ELECTRIC VEHICLES ARE MORE EFFICIENT THAN GASOLINE VEHICLES.
SO IF YOU INVEST IN ELECTRIFICATION, YOUR CAR IS CLEANER BUT ALSO MORE EFFICIENT.
AND THEN SOMETHING UNIQUELY ABOUT ELECTRIC CARS IS AS THE FUEL MIX OF THE POWER SECTOR CLEANS UP, YOUR CAR GETS CLEANER OVER THE 10 YEARS YOU OWN IT, WHEREAS YOUR GASOLINE CAR GETS DIRTIER OVER THE 10 YEARS YOU OWN IT.
SO THERE'S SOME GOOD TRENDS THERE WITH ELECTRIFICATION.
THE THIRD PART IS USING CLEAN MOLECULES FOR THE PARTS OF THE ECONOMY THAT ARE DIFFICULT OR IMPOSSIBLE OR EXPENSIVE TO ELECTRIFY.
THINGS LIKE AVIATION, INDUSTRIAL HEAT, MAYBE HEATING BUILDINGS IN COLD CLIMATES.
SO THAT'S NOT REALLY AUSTIN BUT MAYBE SAY THE NORTHEAST OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT.
UM, MAYBE HEAVY DUTY TRUCKING, MAYBE MAYBE SHIPPING ACROSS THE OCEAN.
SO THERE'S SOME THINGS WHERE CLEAN MOLECULES MIGHT MAKE MORE SENSE THAN ELECTRONS AND THOSE CLEAN MOLECULES MIGHT BE BIOMOLECULES LIKE BIO METHANE OR HYDROGEN OR HYDROGEN CARRIERS LIKE METHANOL OR FORMIC ACID, AMMONIA, THAT KIND OF THING.
SO THERE ARE PLACES WHERE YOU CAN USE CLEAN MOLECULES THAT MIGHT MAKE MORE SENSE THAN USING CLEAN ELECTRONS.
AND THEN THE FOURTH IS CARBON MANAGEMENT USING POINT SOURCE CARBON CAPTURE AT THE SMOKE STACK SAY OR CARBON REMOVAL TO REMOVE THE CO2 FROM THE ATMOSPHERE FOR WHATEVER YOU HAD TO EMIT.
SO I KIND OF BILL THIS AS DO YOUR BEST AND THEN CLEAN UP THE REST LIKE LET'S REDUCE THE MESS AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE AND THEN WHATEVER MESS WE'VE MADE, LET'S GO CLEAN IT UP.
THAT'S KIND OF OUR OBLIGATION TO EACH OTHER AND TO THE FUTURE.
THIS IS A PRIORITY TO THINK ABOUT.
AND SO IF YOU'RE AUSTIN ENERGY EFFICIENCY, YOU'RE ALREADY LEADER AT ELECTRIFICATION IS GOOD FOR YOUR BUSINESS MODEL, THE FIRST TWO STEPS OF THAT ARE REALLY IMPORTANT.
AND THEN YOU MIGHT USE CLEAN MOLECULES TO GENERATE SOME ELECTRICITY AND YOU MIGHT USE CARBON MANAGEMENT TO CLEAN UP THOSE MOLECULES.
SO THIS IS A WAY TO THINK ABOUT HOW WE MIGHT APPROACH DECARBONIZATION AND THIS IS THE WAY I PRESENT IT, BUT MOST ANALYSES AROUND THE WORLD AROUND DECARBONIZATION KIND OF COME TO THE SAME CONCLUSION THAT EFFICIENCY IS THE PLACE TO START.
LET'S ELECTRIFY AS MUCH AS WE CAN WHILE CLEANING UP THE POWER SECTOR.
AND THEN WE HAVE A FEW OTHER OPTIONS AFTER THAT.
IF WE LOOK AT WHAT'S HAPPENED TO AUSTIN, YOU ALREADY HEARD HOW AUSTIN THROUGH BRANDON'S PRESENTATION IS A PART OF ERCOT AND ERCOT IS GOING THROUGH A LOT OF THE SAME THINGS THAT AUSTIN'S GOING THROUGH, WHICH IS GROWTH ERCOT SEEN SIGNIFICANT DEMAND GROWTH FOR POWER IN GIGAWATTS AND OVERALL ELECTRIC CONSUMPTION IN GIGAWATT HOURS AND TRANSMISSION CONGESTION.
AND THAT'S COMING BACK TO DAVE TUTTLE'S QUESTION AND SOME OF THE THINGS THAT BRANDON DIDN'T WANT TO ANSWER THAT LISA ANSWERED AROUND TRANSMISSION.
TRANSMISSION, MOVING THE ELECTRONS FROM WHERE IT'S GENERATED TO WHERE IT'S USED IS AN IMPORTANT PART OF THE EQUATION FOR ERCOT AND ERCOT ISS GOING THROUGH JUST INCREDIBLE GROWTH.
I MEAN A GROWTH THAT IS HARD TO FIND AN ANALOG FOR OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES, BUT LIKE KIND OF LIKE CHINA OR INDIA, THE KIND OF GROWTH WE'RE GOING THROUGH.
SO WE ALREADY HAVE A PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL GRID AND IT MIGHT DOUBLE IN A DECADE.
WE'LL SEE AND THAT WOULD BE REALLY REMARKABLE.
YOU'RE TAKING A COUNTRY SIZE GRID, A GRID THE SIZE OF THE UK OR FRANCE AND DOUBLING IT IN A DECADE.
AND KEEP IN MIND IT TOOK US ABOUT A HUNDRED YEARS TO BUILD IT TO WHERE WE ARE NOW.
SO A LOT OF GROWTH AND THIS IS ONE OF THE AREAS WHERE THERE'S A LOT OF AGREEMENT BETWEEN ENVIRONMENTAL GROUPS AND GOVERNOR ABBOTT AND ELON MUSK.
CAN YOU NAME YOUR PERSON? BASICALLY EVERYONE SAYS YEAH, ELECTRICITY DEMAND IS GONNA GO UP AND PROBABLY SHOULD GO UP BECAUSE WE GET SO MANY ENVIRONMENTAL BENEFITS FROM DOING THAT.
AND I JUST MENTIONED ELON MUSK BECAUSE HE'S, HE'S A LOCAL, HE'S A CUSTOMER OF AUSTIN ENERGIES AND UH, HE UM, HE ALSO SELLS THINGS THAT USE THE ELECTRICITY, AUSTIN ENERGY GENERATES WITH TESLAS AND OTHER THINGS AND THE POWERWALLS.
AND SO I THINK IT'S KIND OF A FASCINATING CONSENSUS AND AS A PERSON WHO'S BEEN IN THE ENERGY SPACE FOR A WHILE, THERE'S NOT ALWAYS CONSENSUS ON ENERGY BUT THERE IS CONSENSUS THAT DEMANDS GOING UP.
[00:40:01]
IF YOU LOOK AT ERCOT FORECAST ON THE LEFT, THAT'S IN GIGAWATT HOURS, THAT'S CONSUMPTION THAT WILL GO UP YEAR OVER YEAR FROM ABOUT 400 PLUS TERAWATT HOURS TO 500 PLUS TERAWATT HOURS JUST BY 2032 OR SO.AND THEN SAME KIND OF THING IN GIGAWATTS GOING FROM PEAK DEMAND TODAY OVER 85 OR SO GIGAWATTS IN ERCOT TO OVER 90 GIGAWATTS IN A FEW YEARS AND MAYBE WELL OVER A HUNDRED GIGAWATTS A FEW YEARS AFTER THAT.
SO SIGNIFICANT GROWTH IN POWER AND ELECTRIC CONSUMPTION THROUGHOUT THE YEAR IN ERCOT AND THEREFORE WE EXPECT SOMETHING SIMILAR IN AUSTIN.
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT NATURE OF OUR MAKEUP BECAUSE WE HAVE NO REFINERIES, WE DON'T HAVE FACTORIES THE SAME WAY, BUT WE DO HAVE A LOT OF PEOPLE, A LOT OF ECONOMIC GROWTH.
THE LOW GROWTHS UP FOR A LOT OF REASONS.
I KEEP TALKING ABOUT ELECTRIC VEHICLES AND I'LL KEEP, YOU'LL SEE WHY I'M OBSESSED WITH ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN A SECOND.
BUT THERE'S ALSO ELECTRIFICATION OF INDUSTRIAL LOADS.
UM, WE DON'T HAVE AS MUCH STEEL OIL AND GAS IN AUSTIN BUT WE DO HAVE IT IN TEXAS.
AND THEN THERE'S DATA CENTERS WHICH FOR A FEW YEARS WERE CRYPTO MINERS, CRYPTOCURRENCY MINING, BUT NOW IS LIKE ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND OTHER USES OF DATA CENTERS.
BUT THERE'S ALSO ELECTRIFICATION OF HOME HEATING REPLACING GAS FURNACES WITH ELECTRIC HEAT PUMPS OR HOME COOKING, REPLACING A GAS COOKTOP WITH AN DEDUCTION COOKTOP FOR EXAMPLE.
AND THEN FUNDAMENTALLY POPULATION GROWTH AND ECONOMIC GROWTH.
THERE'S JUST MORE OF US AND THAT WE AS WE HAVE MORE PEOPLE IN TEXAS OR IN AUSTIN, THEY ALL WILL WANT ELECTRICITY AND AS WE GET RICHER WE TEND TO USE MORE, ALTHOUGH RICH PEOPLE TEND TO INVEST MORE IN EFFICIENCY.
SO THE GROWTH ISN'T EXACTLY LINEAR.
AND THEN WE HAVE THESE WEATHER EVENTS, THE HEAT DOME OF LAST YEAR, THIS IS A MILD WEEK IN TEXAS OR AUSTIN I'LL TAKE IT, BUT LAST YEAR, IF YOU REMEMBER HOW HOT IT WAS FOR HOW LONG THE HEAT DOMES ARE BECOMING A MORE EVER PRESENT PART OF OUR REALITY AS WELL AS POLAR VORTICES, THESE COLD SNAPS LIKE WINTER STORM URI OR THE FREEZE IN 22 OR THE FREEZE IN 23 OR WHATEVER.
WE KEEP HAVING THESE FREEZES AND ONE OF THE CONFOUNDING PARTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IS THE TEMPERATURE GOES UP ON AVERAGE BUT COLD SNAPS WILL BE MORE FREQUENT AND INTENSE.
AND THAT IS SORT OF TOUGH BECAUSE IF YOU'RE A UTILITY, IF TO PREPARE FOR THAT WARMER SEASON THAT'S NOW LIKE FIVE MONTHS LONG BUT YOU HAVE A COLD SNAP THAT'S FIVE DAYS LONG IN THE WINTER AS WELL AND YOU HAVE TO BE READY FOR ALL OF IT.
IF IT WERE JUST GONNA BE HOTTER ALL THE TIME, YOU COULD PLAN FOR THAT DIFFERENTLY.
BUT IF IT'S GONNA BE HOTTER MOST OF THE TIME BUT ALSO COLDER SOMETIMES THAT CHALLENGES HOW YOU DO YOUR MAINTENANCE AND HOW YOU DESIGN YOUR SYSTEM.
SO THAT'S ONE OF THE REALITIES YOU HAVE TO PREPARE FOR.
AND THEN AS LIKE YOU COME BACK TO TRANSMISSION CAPACITY AND ERCOT IS SCARCE AND GETTING SCARCER, THERE'S ONLY SO MANY ELECTRONS YOU CAN MOVE OVER TRANSMISSION LINES AND THERE'S ONLY SO QUICK YOU CAN BUILD THE LINES AND SO LOCAL RESOURCES WILL BECOME MORE IMPORTANT.
THAT'S SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND NOW.
IT WON'T BE IMPOSSIBLE TO MOVE POWER FROM PLACE TO PLACE.
IT JUST GETS EXPENSIVE AND VOLATILE TO DO SO.
SO THAT'S UH, PART OF THE REALITY THAT THE TRADERS LOSS ENERGY HAVE TO OPERATE WITHIN.
AND THEN IF WE THINK OF LIKE THE LARGE UTILITY SCALE WIND FARMS, THEY TEND TO BE PRETTY FAR AWAY.
UM, SOLAR FARMS CAN BE CLOSE OR FAR AND ROOFTOP SOLAR IS VERY CLOSE.
SO THE DIFFERENT RENEWABLES HAVE DIFFERENT UH, SORT OF PROXIMITY BENEFITS OR DISBENEFITS DEPENDING ON WHAT THEY ARE.
LET'S LOOK AT A SPECIFIC VIEW OF LOW GROWTH IN AUSTIN ENERGY SERVICE AREA.
UH, IF WE JUST TAKE IN HISTORICAL DATA 2023 AND BACK, THOSE ARE ACTUAL NUMBERS AND THAT IS IN MEGAWATTS THE PEAK DEMAND HITTING JUST OVER 3000 MEGAWATTS IN PEAK DEMAND IN 2023.
AND THEN A FORWARD PROJECTION OF HOW IT MIGHT GO BASED ON POPULATION GROWTH, ECONOMIC GROWTH KIND OF BUSINESS AS USUAL AS IN BLUE, THE DARKER BLUE.
AND THEN THERE'S A A THIN KIND OF ORANGE LINE THERE AS HOME ELECTRIFICATION IF YOU DID LIKE MORE HOME COOKING OR UH, THINGS LIKE THAT.
AND THEN YOU ADD IN THE LIGHT BLUE AS DATA CENTERS AND THEN IF YOU ADD IN GREEN, THIS IS EV CHARGING.
SO IF WE LOOK AT THE PLANS FOR HOW MANY ELECTRIC VEHICLES THEY'LL BE IN THE AUSTIN ENERGY SERVICE HERE BY 2040, WE EXPECT HUNDREDS AND HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF THEM PARTLY BECAUSE THAT'S WHAT THE AUTO MANUFACTURERS ARE GOING TO MAKE.
THEY'VE ALREADY SAID THEY WILL NOT SELL YOU A GASOLINE ENGINE AFTER 2035.
SO THAT'S WHAT YOU WILL BE BUYING WHETHER YOU WANT IT OR NOT FOR THE MOST PART.
BUT ALSO THAT'S WHAT PEOPLE WANT AND THAT'S PART OF THE CLIMATE PLAN LOSS AND EVERYTHING.
SO WE, WE EXPECT A LOT OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES, THAT'S A GOOD NEW STORY BUT THE RISK IS THAT EVERYONE WILL PLUG IN THEIR CAR AT THESE EXACT SAME MOMENT.
NOW HOPEFULLY THIS DOESN'T HAPPEN 'CAUSE IF YOU DO THAT IN GREEN THEN YOUR PEAK DEMAND GOES UP TO SOMETHING LIKE UH, 7,800 MEGAWATTS.
SO YOU GO FROM 3000 MEGAWATTS OVER 7,800 MEGAWATTS, YOU GET A LOT OF PEAK DEMAND GROWTH IF EVERYONE PLUGS INTO ELECTRIC VEHICLES AT THE SAME TIME, WHICH HOPEFULLY WE WILL NOT DO BECAUSE THAT WOULD BE VERY DIFFICULT FOR THE GRID.
BUT THAT'S THE RISK WE HAVE IF WE'RE NOT CAREFUL AND WE REALLY DON'T KNOW HOW MANY EVS THERE'LL BE, BUT WE KNOW IT'LL BE A LOT.
DATA CENTERS IS KINDA A WILD CARD.
WE HAVE ABOUT 125 MEGAWATTS OF DATA CENTERS IN THE AUSTIN ENERGY SERVICE AREA RIGHT NOW AND WE'RE ANTICIPATING THAT QUADRUPLING GOING UP ANOTHER 500 MEGAWATTS OF DATA CENTERS.
IT COULD BE HIGHER, IT COULD BE LOWER.
SO IF YOU LOOK AT THESE HYPER SCALED DATA CENTERS THAT DO ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE, ONE DATA CENTER MIGHT BE 500 MEGAWATTS.
SOME OF THE DATA CENTERS ARE TALKING ABOUT ARE A THOUSAND TO 2000 MEGAWATTS, THESE HYPER DATA CENTERS.
AND THE NUMBER WE HAVE IN THAT CASE IS SMALLER THAN JUST ONE OF THOSE.
WE'RE THINKING MANY DATA CENTERS AND YOU COULD ARGUE THAT THE BIG DATA CENTERS WILL BE OUTSIDE OF AUSTIN BECAUSE THEY CAN GET THE SPACE, IT'LL
[00:45:01]
BE CHEAPER AND THEY CAN MAYBE NEGOTIATE A LOWER RATE SOMEWHERE ELSE.HOWEVER, YOU COULD ALSO ARGUE THERE'LL BE INSIDE AUSTIN ENERGY SERVICE AREA BECAUSE THIS IS WHERE THE TECH TALENT IS THAT USES THEM FOR THE TRAINING AND FOR ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE IT'S ALL ABOUT A RACE.
IT'S AN ARMS RACE TO GET A UTILITY HOOKUP FASTEST.
SO THEY'LL GO WHEREVER THEY CAN GET HOOKED UP TO THE GRID FASTEST.
SO WE DON'T KNOW IF THAT COULD BE HIGHER THAN 500 MEGAWATTS, IT COULD BE LOWER.
I'LL TELL YOU THAT THE UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS WAS JUST AWARDED A WEEK AGO A NEW RESEARCH COMPUTER FROM THE NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION.
IT'S A HIGH SPEED OPEN SCIENCE COMPUTER, THE FASTEST OPEN SCIENCE COMPUTER IN THE WORLD WHEN IT TURNS ON IN A YEAR OR TWO THAT ONE COMPUTER WILL BE 30 MEGAWATTS, ONE COMPUTER, 30 MEGAWATTS.
AND SO IT'S EASY TO IMAGINE WE'LL HAVE A LOT OF COMPUTERS IN HUNDREDS OF MEGAWATTS AND THAT'S A HALF BILLION DOLLAR COMPUTER WITH ANOTHER HALF BILLION DOLLARS OF SUPPORT AND OPERATIONS OVER 10 YEARS.
SO IT'S A BIG DEAL AND UT WILL PROBABLY APPLY FOR ANOTHER COMPUTER LIKE TWO YEARS LATER BY THE WAY 'CAUSE WE'VE GOT A VERY GOOD ADVANCED COMPUTING CENTER.
SO SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND IS DATA CENTERS ARE HARD TO PREDICT.
EVS ARE HARD TO PREDICT HOW MANY WE'LL HAVE AND WHEN THEY'LL CHARGE.
BUT IF WE HAVE HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS LIKE WE HOPE AND EXPECT AND THEY ALL CHARGE AT THE SAME TIME, THE DEMAND WILL GO UP A LOT AT THAT MOMENT.
IN PURPLE IS OUR SUPPLY, WHICH ACTUALLY DROPS OVER THE YEARS AS POWER PLANTS.
UH, SORT OF AGREEMENTS THESE PPAS OR POWER PURCHASE AGREEMENTS SAY WITH WIND FARMS AND SOLAR FARMS AS THEY EXPIRE.
OUR SUPPLY WILL DROP AS TIME GOES ON AND THERE'LL BE A MISMATCH BETWEEN THE DEMAND AND THE SUPPLY AND THAT'S WHY WE'RE HERE TALKING TODAY.
ALRIGHT, SO THIS IS THE SITUATION.
IF EVERYONE PLUGS IN THEIR ELECTRIC VEHICLES AT THE SAME TIME, WHICH THEY SHOULD NOT DO, HERE'S A MORE SMOOTH SITUATION WHERE EVERYONE PLUGS IN THEIR EVS BUT IN A STAGGERED WAY AROUND THE CLOCK.
SO YOU ONLY HAVE LIKE 4% OF EVS PLUGGED IN AT ANY TIME AND NOW YOUR PEAK DEMAND IS NOT 7,800 MEGAWATTS.
SO SHIFTING HOW WE CHARGE MAKES A HUGE DIFFERENCE ON OUR PEAK DEMAND AND THAT'S ACTUALLY ONE OF THE MOST IMPORTANT TAKEAWAYS FOR YOU IS SMART CHARGING MANAGEMENT WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT FOR AUSTIN ENERGY IN ITS SURFACE AREA SO THAT WE DON'T BLOW UP THE GRID OF THAT PEAK DEMAND.
THE PEAK DEMAND COMES LOWER AND NOW DATA CENTERS BECOME MORE IMPORTANT ON PEAK DEMAND THAN THE EVS.
SO THAT'S SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND THAT'S REALLY AROUND THE CLOCK SMOOTH CHARGING.
IT'S HARD TO IMAGINE EVERYONE PLUGS IN THEIR CAR AT THE EXACT SAME MOMENT.
IT'S ALSO HARD TO IMAGINE THAT EVERYONE WILL PERFECTLY CHARGE THEIR CAR, UH, OUT OF SYNC WITH THEIR NEIGHBOR.
AND SO HERE'S WHAT ERCOT ACTUALLY PREDICTS.
IT'S ABOUT 10% OF EVS WILL BE PLUGGED IN AT PEAK TIMES.
AND SO MAYBE THIS IS A MORE REALISTIC PREDICTION, STILL GROWTH FROM 3000 MEGAWATTS TO SOMETHING LIKE 4,400 HUNDRED MEGAWATTS IN THE NEXT, THE NEXT 16 YEARS OR SO.
DAVE, COULD YOU CLARIFY ALSO HOW IF YOU HAVE SMART CHARGING, IT COULD ACTUALLY IMPROVE THE ECONOMICS? I'LL GET TO THAT OF THE GRID.