[00:00:01]
[*This meeting was joined in progress*]
[PUBLIC COMMUNICATION: GENERAL ]
HAVE THREE MINUTES.UH, GOOD EVENING COMMISSIONERS.
UH, THANK YOU ALL FOR BEING HERE IN, IN THE EVENING.
UM, I WAS HERE LAST, UM, AT THE LAST MEETING WHEN WE WENT OVER 10 SCENARIOS.
AND, UM, I TALKED ABOUT A FEW THINGS THAT I WANT TO JUST TOUCH ON, BUT, UM, I GOT INTER, UH, I RAN OUT OF TIME.
SO, UH, THERE'S ONE PART I WANT TO GO INTO A LITTLE MORE DETAIL THIS TIME.
UM, WE WE'RE TALKING ABOUT, UH, A HYDROGEN CAPABLE GAS PLANT THAT WAS IN MOST OR ALMOST ALL OF THE SCENARIOS.
AND I MADE THE POINT THAT, UH, HYDROGEN'S INEFFICIENT IT.
IF YOU, THE ONLY HYDROGEN THAT MAKES SENSE TO TRY TO HAVE OUR ENERGY PLAN BE MORE GREEN IS GREEN HYDROGEN.
AND BY THE TIME YOU SHIP IT TO, FROM WHEREVER IT'S MADE, UH, TO WHEREVER YOU, YOU BURN IT, IT'S LOSING, UH, 70% OF ITS ENERGY COMPARED TO SOLAR ENERGY SENT TO BATTERY STORAGE ONLY LOSES 20%.
UM, AND I TALKED ABOUT WHEN WE COMPARE TO A GAS PLANT THAT IS, UM, SUPPOSEDLY HYDROGEN CAPABLE, I'M OPPOSED TO IT UNLESS IT WAS, UM, USING GREEN ENERGY.
BUT THE WHOLE HYDROGEN SCENARIO SEEMS TO BE, UM, NOT WELL DEVELOPED TECHNOLOGY YET.
IT DOESN'T MAKE SENSE UNLESS IT'S GREEN HYDROGEN.
AND, UM, COMPARED TO, I BELIEVE THAT THE BATTERY COSTS AND THE SOLAR COSTS, BATTERY COSTS ARE FALLING AND THE SOLAR COSTS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN TO ALMOST NOTHING.
WHEN YOU TALK ABOUT THE PANELS, THE BATTERY COSTS HAVE FALLEN 80% OVER A DECADE, AND THE INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY PREDICTS THAT THEY'LL FALL AGAIN 40% BY 2030.
AND THEN I STARTED READING SOME EXCERPTS TO YOU LAST TIME, AND THIS IS WHAT I WANT TO FINISH UP WITH.
A NEW YORK TIMES ARTICLE BY DAVID WALLACE WELLS.
UH, THIS AUGUST WAS CALLED THE SHOCKING RISE OF SOLAR IS RESHAPING THE ENERGY LANDSCAPE.
THIS ARRIVED IN MY INBOX WITH THE ALTERNATIVE TITLE, WHAT WILL WE DO WITH ALL THIS POWER? IT SAID THAT SOLAR POWER WILL BE RELIABLY FREE DURING THE SUNNY PARTS OF THE DAY FOR MUCH OF THE YEAR, PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE.
UH, 10 YEARS AGO, IT WAS CONSIDERED A MOONSHOT TO REDUCE THE SOLAR MODULE PRICE TO A DOLLAR PER WATT.
AND NOW IT'S ONE 10TH OF THAT, AND THE PRICE FELL ALMOST IN HALF IN 2023.
THE PANEL PRICES ARE SO INEXPENSIVE NOW THAT IT DOESN'T MATTER MUCH IF THE PANELS ARE NOT OPTIMALLY ANGLED TO THE SUN.
SO THERE'S JUST, UM, GAJILLIONS OF PLACES WHERE YOU COULD PUT THEM.
LIKE PEOPLE LOVE TO PARK IN THE SHADE IN TEXAS, SO YOU COULD PUT 'EM ON PARKING LOTS, YOU COULD PUT 'EM IN A NUMBER OF PLACES, ALL KINDS OF PLACES.
THE ACTUAL SOLAR PANELS ARE BECOMING A SMALLER FRACTION OF THE TOTAL COST.
BUT EVEN THE ALL IN COST, YOU KNOW, FACTORING IN INSTALLATION AND CONNECTION TRANSMISSION IS EXPECTED TO FALL BY HALF IN THE NEXT DECADE.
YOUR TI YOUR TIME HAS EXPIRED.
NEXT SPEAKER IS DEBORAH WHITE.
THANK YOU FOR COMING AND ALLOWING ME TO SPEAK.
UM, THE CLIMATE CRISIS IS HERE AND WE CANNOT AFFORD TO WAIT TO GO TO FULLY SUSTAINABLE, I MEAN FULLY RENEWABLE ENERGY.
AND I WANNA TALK A LITTLE BIT ABOUT SOLAR ENERGY.
UH, I, I DON'T SEE THAT MUCH SOLAR ENERGY GOING UP.
I SEE SO MANY NEW HOMES IN MY NEIGHBORHOOD AND THE DEVELOPERS ARE NOT PUTTING SOLAR PANELS ON THESE NEW HOMES, AND I'M WONDERING WHY.
UM, SO I WOULD LIKE TO SEE THE CITY DO SOMETHING TO HELP OUR, UH, HOMEOWNERS AND OUR, UH, APARTMENT BUILDERS ALSO, UM, DO SOMETHING TO BE, TO ENCOURAGE SOLAR, UM, ENERGY.
UM, I WOULD EVEN LIKE IT THERE TO POSSIBLY BE SOME KIND OF REGULATION THAT NEW BUILDS NEEDED TO HAVE SOLAR PANELS ON
[00:05:01]
THEM.THEY'RE CONSTRUCTING NEW ROOFS.
IT REALLY WOULD NOT BE DIFFICULT FOR THEM TO INCLUDE SOLAR IN THEIR BUILDING.
BUT I WOULD LIKE ALSO FOR THE CITY TO HELP MAKE IT EASIER FOR PEOPLE TO PUT SOLAR ENERGY ON THEIR HOMES.
I'VE PERSONALLY TALKED TO, OH, IT, FIVE OR SIX, UH, DIFFERENT, UH, SOLAR SALESMEN THAT COME TO ME WITH ALL THEIR TALKING POINTS AND THEY WANNA LOOK AT MY BILLS, BUT THEY REALLY DON'T THAT KNOW THAT MUCH ABOUT ENERGY, UH, GENERATION ONE OF THEM DIDN'T EVEN KNOW THAT THERE WAS ANY WIND POWER BEING USED.
AND, UH, THEY OFTEN WILL NOT TELL YOU IF YOU ASK THEM, WHAT IS A SOLAR PANEL GOING TO COST? WHAT WILL THIS INSTALLATION COST? THEY, THEY'RE FUNNY AND THEY WON'T TELL YOU THAT.
SO I THINK THAT THE CITY SHOULD HAVE SOME KIND OF PROGRAM.
NOT THAT THEY WOULDN'T ALLOW THESE GUYS TO GO OUT THERE, BUT IF THEY WOULD HAVE SOME CERTIFICATION PROGRAM SO THEY CAN PUT THE STAMP OF APPROVAL ON CERTAIN SOLAR SALES PEOPLE THAT THEY KNOW ARE WELL TRAINED AND HONEST, AND WE CAN TRUST THEM TO SELL US SOME SOLAR PANELS, ANSWER OUR QUESTIONS, UH, WELL ENOUGH.
AND, UH, SO WE, 'CAUSE RIGHT NOW YOU KIND OF FEEL LIKE YOU CAN'T TELL A, A LEGITIMATE GUY FROM SOMEBODY THAT'S JUST OUT TO MAKE A FAST BUCK ANYWAY.
I THINK SOLAR IS A MUCH BETTER OPTION THAN AN UNPROVEN TECHNOLOGY LIKE A GAS PLANT THAT MIGHT BE ABLE TO GO HYDROGEN, UH, WITH ALL OF THE, UH, UNKNOWN PROBLEMS OF MAKING HYDROGEN.
SO I WOULD REALLY LIKE TO SEE THE CITY DO EVERYTHING THEY CAN TO HELP AUSTIN BECOME A VERY SOLAR ENERGIZED CITY.
I'M NOT SPEAKING ON BEHALF OF THE OFFICE.
I WORK IN, UH, THE UNION THAT I'M A PROUD MEMBER OF OR ANY NONPROFIT BOARD THAT I SERVE ON.
UH, I'M HERE IN MY PERSONAL CAPACITY AS A PROUD RESIDENT OF D FOUR.
UH, AND, UH, I WANNA START BY APPRECIATING THE WORK FOR DOING THIS MODELING AND LOOKING AT THESE THINGS AND ASKING QUESTIONS THAT WE SAW LAST MONTH IN THE PRESENTATIONS.
AND THEN I'M LOOKING FORWARD TO SEEING TODAY.
BUT I DO HAVE SOME, SOME PRETTY BIG CONCERNS ABOUT, ABOUT IT.
UH, ONE IS, ARE WE PRICING IN THE EXTERNALITIES THAT ARE TIED TO FOSSIL FUEL GENERATION? ARE WE PRICING IN COSTS TO OUR, OUR ENVIRONMENT? LIKE THE IMPACT ON CLIMATE CHANGE THAT TECHNOLOGIES THAT ARE BASED ON BURNING STUFF? CAUSE I'M THINKING ABOUT ALSO THE PARTICULATE LIKE 2.5 PPM INTO OUR, INTO OUR AIR, INTO OUR LUNGS.
UH, ARE WE FACTOR? DO WE, DOES THAT EVEN EXIST HONESTLY, IN THE MODELING? IS THERE A WAY TO PRICE THAT IN? BECAUSE I FEEL LIKE WE'RE NOT DOING APPLES TO APPLES WHEN WE COMPARE THINGS THAT, YOU KNOW, EXACERBATE OUR CLIMATE CHANGE CRISIS AND THINGS THAT DON'T CONTRIBUTE TO THAT.
UM, WHEN WE TALK ABOUT THE COSTS AND NET COSTS, ARE WE FACTORING THE FACT THAT, UH, THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT, THROUGH BILLS LIKE THE INFLATION REDUCTION ACT AND OTHER ONES PROVIDE, YOU KNOW, FREE MONEY FOR THINGS THAT, FOR TECHNOLOGIES THAT ARE CARBON NEUTRAL, THERE'S MONEY ON THE TABLE THAT WE CAN GO AFTER.
AND IT'S KIND OF HARD TO, TO PROJECT, UH, IMPACTS ON BILLS YEARS IN THE FUTURE WHEN WE'RE TALKING ABOUT SOME TECHNOLOGIES THAT GET FEDERAL FUNDING AND OTHER ONES THAT WON'T, THAT WE'RE GONNA HAVE TO FIND THAT ARE OURSELF AND FLOAT DEBT FOR IT.
UM, ANOTHER ONE IS, YOU KNOW, PRICES FOR RENEWABLES AND, AND STORAGE HA TECHNOLOGY HAVE DROPPED FASTER THAN OR WAS, YOU KNOW, PREDICTED JUST A FEW YEARS AGO.
ARE WE FACTORING FUTURE PRICE DROPS INTO THOSE TECHNOLOGIES OR ARE, ARE WE JUST TAKING IT AT CURRENT COSTS AND JUST DRAWING THAT LINE FORWARD INTO THE FUTURE? UM, I HAVE GRAVE CONCERNS ABOUT ANY KIND OF FURTHER THINGS THAT ARE BURNING NATURAL GAS, MAYBE WITH THE FACADE OF, HEY, WE COULD THEORETICALLY POSSIBLY, UH,
[00:10:01]
BURN SOME KIND OF HYDROGEN, BUT THERE'S NO PIPELINES FOR IT.AND IF THERE WERE, THEY WOULD BE GOING INTO FERTILIZER.
I CAN HONESTLY SAY THAT IT ALL MY COMMUNITY INTERACTIONS, THERE'S NO APPETITE FOR MORE FOSSIL FUEL BASED GENERATION.
OUR COMMUNITY WANTS THINGS THAT ARE GREEN.
WE WANT THOSE JOBS TO GO TO PEOPLE IN OUR COMMUNITY, THE TRAINING FOR IT.
AND I UNDERSTAND THAT, YOU KNOW, THERE'S A LOT OF, THERE'S A LOT OF HURDLES FOR IT, BUT THERE'S AGAIN, THERE'S FEDERAL MONEY OUT THERE THAT WE MAY BE JUST LEAVING ON THE TABLE IF WE'RE NOT INCLUDING THAT IN THE CALCULUS IN OUR CONVERSATION.
AND REALLY STRIVING FOR THE GOALS SET BY COUNCIL BECAUSE THEY'VE LISTENED TO THE COMMUNITY WHO WANTS A GREEN FUTURE, A LIVABLE FUTURE, A GOOD UNION JOB FUTURE THAT TAKES CARE OF US AND ADDS RESILIENCY TO AUSTIN.
FINAL SPEAKER IS SCOTT JOHNSON.
MEMBERS AND STAFF, I SPOKE TO YOU ALL IN MARCH.
UH, I'M HERE TO REITERATE A POINT, BUT TO EXPAND ON IT, THE REBATE PROGRAM OR INCENTIVE PROGRAM FOR LANDSCAPING EQUIPMENT IS GONNA TRANSFORM.
WE JUST DON'T KNOW THAT TIMELINE OF THAT BECAUSE THE OFFICE OF SUSTAINABILITY IS INVOLVED WITH IT AS WELL.
BUT WHEN I TALK TO STAFF, I WANNA TRY TO HELP THEM BECAUSE I'VE DONE THE PROGRAM PROFESSIONALLY, AS SOME OF YOU MAY REMEMBER FROM MY EARLY OR PRESENTATION IN MARCH, HAVING WORKED WITH AUSTIN ENERGY IN 96 AND 97 TO PUT ON THE FIRST ONE IN TEXAS TO DO AN INCENTIVE PROGRAM WHERE WE SCRAP GAS POWERED LAWNMOWERS, WHICH IS THE MAIN ENVIRONMENTAL BENEFIT OF THAT PROGRAM.
AND I'M GONNA TRY TO STAY ENGAGED AND HOPE THAT THE OFFICE OF SUSTAINABILITY AND AUSTIN ENERGY LOOKS FOR PEOPLE THAT CAN COMMENT ON THEIR TENTATIVE PLAN OR THEIR DRAFT PLAN SO THAT IT CAN BECOME EVEN BETTER POTENTIALLY BROADENING OUT THE CONVERSATION.
I'VE MET WITH IN MY 30 PLUS YEARS OF ADVOCACY, PROBABLY 500 OR 600 STAFF MEMBERS FROM THE CITY OF AUSTIN AND BEEN IN 150 PLUS MEETINGS, INCLUDING AUSTIN ENERGY MEETINGS, BUT WITH OTHER DEPARTMENTS AS WELL.
WHAT I DO KNOW IS THAT AUSTIN IS A CITY THAT WE WANT TO GET ALONG.
WE WANT TO BE MIDWESTERN NICE OR AUSTIN NICE, AND THAT'S GOOD.
BUT WHAT I DON'T SEE WHEN I'M IN THESE MEETINGS, EVEN WITH PEOPLE THAT ARE LIKE-MINDED PROGRESSIVES WHO ARE WILLING TO COMMENT AND TAKE THE TASK, SOME OF THEIR FRIENDS, WE DON'T HAVE ENOUGH OF THAT.
WE NEED PEOPLE WHO SOMETIMES HAVE A CONTRARY OPINION OR BELIEF ABOUT THE DISCUSSION TO SAY, WELL, WAIT, WE NEED TO THINK ABOUT THAT.
HOW IS THIS NEW PROGRAM GONNA HAVE AN TIGHT EQUITY FOCUS? THE LAWNMOWER PROGRAM AND LANDSCAPING PROGRAM OBVIOUSLY DOESN'T, AND IT'S GONNA BE CHANGED HOPEFULLY TO AN EXCELLENT EXTENT.
THE BICYCLE REBATE PROGRAM ALSO DOESN'T, DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH IS SPENT AND THE FUNDING COMES FROM AUSTIN ENERGY'S BUDGET, WHAT I UNDERSTAND, THEY CAN GET UP TO $600 REBATE.
MY GOOD FRIENDS ARE THE ONES THAT OWN ELECTRIC AVENUE SCOOTERS IN, IN THE TRIANGLE.
THEY'RE ONE OF THE LARGEST RETAILERS IN AUSTIN.
AND THE LOWEST PRICE SCOOTERS THAT ARE FULL SIZE, NOT WITH THE BMX SIZE WHEELS, THEY'RE 3,500 TO 4,000.
THEY HAVE SCOOTERS, SORRY,
NOT ALL OF THEM, BUT SOME OF THEM GETTING $600 OFF OF A E-BIKE THAT COSTS MORE THAN $5,000 IS NOT GONNA MAKE PEOPLE RUN TO IT WHO ARE OF LESSER MEANS.
SO IF YOU HAVE AN UPDATE FROM STAFF LATER THIS YEAR, PLEASE BROADEN THE CONVERSATION TO E-BIKES AS WELL.
I'M AN E-BIKE OWNER AND AN ELECTRIC SCOOTER OWNER, BUT THAT DOESN'T MEAN I SHOULDN'T BE THINKING ABOUT HOW CAN BE THE MONEY BE WELL SPENT.
IT'S VERY IMPORTANT ON THIS PARTICULAR TOPIC, WE NEED TO CHALLENGE OUR FRIENDS IN THE CONVERSATION MORE ABOUT WEIGHT.
WE NEED TO THINK ABOUT THIS MORE, MORE BROADLY AND HOW CAN WE HELP THE COMMUNITY NOT JUST LISTEN TO PROMINENT NONPROFITS WHO ARE GOING IN AND PUSHING ON THINGS OR COALITIONS THAT ARE PUSHING ON THINGS.
THAT'S ALL THE SPEAKERS WE HAVE.
[APPROVAL OF MINUTES]
APPROVAL OF THE MINUTES FROM THE LAST MEETING, SEPTEMBER 30TH.DO WE HAVE ANY COMMENTS? I MOVE APPROVAL.
DO WE HAVE A SECOND? ARE WE APPROVING TWO MEETINGS MINUTES? YES.
JUST FOR CLARITY, JOSH IS RIGHT.
UM, IT'S TWO DIFFERENT MEETINGS.
[00:15:01]
OKAY.YEAH, THEY SHOULD BE IN THE PACKET HERE.
CAN YOU, CAN YOU SAY WHO MADE THE MOTION AGAIN? I'M SORRY.
[Items 2, 5, & 6]
ON DISCUSSION AND ACTION ITEMS TWO THROUGH 10, ANY OF THEM TO BE PULLED? YES.I DECIDED A QUICK QUESTION ON SEVEN, EIGHT, AND NINE, AND I THINK MINE WERE, UH, THREE AND FOUR.
IS THIS, AM I ON? YOU WANT TO TAP IT AND SEE? I GUESS SO.
HOW ABOUT WE GET 2, 5, 6 AND 10, WELL, ACTUALLY 10.
WE'RE GONNA HAVE A, YOU'RE GONNA UH, POST THE POTENTIAL DATES RIGHT ON 10.
THAT'S THE EUC MEETING DATES FOR 2025.
IT'S INCLUDED IN YOUR PACKET IF YOU WANNA TAKE A LOOK AT IT.
UM, BUT WELL, LET'S JUST GO THROUGH TWO AND FIVE, SIX AND THEN WE WILL GET TO 10 LATER.
DO WE HAVE ANY CONCERNS WITH TWO AND FIVE AND SIX? CAN WE VOTE ON THOSE? NO CONCERNS.
IT'S EXCITING THAT WE'RE GONNA GET $31 MILLION IN FEDERAL MONEY FOR SOLAR, UH, PARTICULARLY FOR LOW INCOME FOLKS AND THOSE LIVING IN MULTI-FAMILY HOUSING.
SO I THINK WE SHOULD RECOGNIZE THAT, UH, GOOD JOB STAFF, UH, FOR PURSUING THAT.
BUT YEAH, I'D MAKE A MOTION TO APPROVE THOSE THREE ITEMS. OKAY.
SO AS TO THE SOLAR FOR ALL, RICHARD? YES.
ALL IN FAVOR? OKAY, SO WE'VE GOT TWO, FIVE, AND SIX OUT OF THE WAY.
[Items 3 & 4]
THREE AND FOUR? YEAH.UM, BOTH THREE AND FOUR SAY THAT THEY'RE TO MAKE WAY FOR THE I 35 EXPANSION.
AND I WAS JUST WONDERING, IS TXDOT PAYING FOR THIS? OR LIKE WHAT'S, YEAH, IS THERE ANY ARRANGEMENT THERE? UH, HI, I'M TINA LITTLE, UH, REPRESENTING, UH, ELAINE SALKA WHO'S OUT TODAY.
UM, AND YES, THOSE ARE TECH STOP PROJECTS AND THESE, THESE ARE UP FOR REIMBURSEMENT.
SO ONE OF THEM IS AN IMMINENT DOMAIN AND ONE IS A, UH, UH, REGULAR ACQUISITION.
SO TEXT DOT WILL REIMBURSE THE FULL AMOUNT, THE, THE, THEY WILL BE SUBMITTED BACK TO TDOT FOR REIMBURSEMENT.
AND THE FULL, THEY SHOULD BE THE FULL AMOUNT ON BOTH OF THOSE.
QUICK QUESTION ON THE IM DOMAIN ONE.
WHY, WHY ISN'T IT TDOT THAT'S DOING EMINENT DOMAIN? WHY DOES THE CITY OF AUSTIN HAVE TO DO IT IF IT'S A TECH DOT PROJECT? GOOD QUESTION.
IT'S AN ELECTRIC, IT WAS AN ELECTRIC EASEMENT.
UH, AUSTIN ENERGY WAS, WE WERE IN OUR OWN EASEMENT AND SO WE ACQUIRE A NEW EASEMENT AND THEN THEY REIMBURSE US FOR THAT.
SO WE'RE NOT ON THOSE, WE'RE NOT IN TEXDOT RIGHT AWAY.
WELL, WE'RE IN TEXDOT RIGHT OF WAY, BUT ON A PRIVATE EASEMENT, UH, OVERHANGING PART OF THE RIGHT OF WAY.
DOES THAT MAKE SENSE? SO THEN WE, FOR US TO MOVE, WE'VE GOTTA GET A NEW EASEMENT.
AND I GUESS I'LL ASK THE SAME QUESTION I ASK ON THE OTHER EMINENT DOMAIN, UM, ITEMS. IF YOU, A MONTH OR TWO AGO, ARE THE PROPERTY OWNERS, ARE THEY, YOU KNOW, NOT WANTING TO PART WITH THEIR PROPERTY AT ALL? OR IS IT JUST A MATTER OF SETTLING ON THE AMOUNT THAT I DON'T KNOW.
THE DE YEAH, I DON'T KNOW THE DETAIL OF THAT, BUT THE, THE, FOR US TO GO TO IMMINENT DOMAIN, USUALLY IT'S, WE HAVEN'T AGREED UPON PRICE.
OTHER QUESTIONS ONLINE? ABOUT THREE OR FOUR.
[00:20:01]
SAY AYE.DOES IT MEAN WE ARE IN FAVOR OF THE 35 EXPANSION OR DOES IT MEAN WE'RE IN FAVOR? YEAH.
I DON'T THINK THAT'S, THAT'S NOT IN OUR CARDS.
SO I THINK WE HAVE, LET'S TWEET THAT OUT.
IS THAT CLEAR AS MUD FOR YOUR SORRY, DID KIBA, DID YOU ABSTAIN OR SHE PUT HER HAND UP? VERY UNWILLINGLY.
[Items 7 - 9]
7, 8, 9.JOSH, YOU HAD QUESTIONS ABOUT THAT FOR SEVEN.
IT'S JUST A, IT PROBABLY JUST VERY QUICK.
I COULDN'T TELL FROM THE LANGUAGE.
ARE WE EXTENDING A WATER PIPELINE OR A ELECTRIC, ELECTRIC TRANSMISSION LINE? GOOD EVENING COMMISSION.
KEN SNIPES, VICE PRESIDENT POWER PRODUCTION.
UH, THAT LINE IS TO SUPPORT THE DISTRICT ENERGY COOLING SYSTEM FOR THE CONVENTION CENTER PROJECT.
I, BUT I COULDN'T TELL FROM THE WORDING.
IS IT, IS IT AN ELECTRIC TRANSMISSION LINE OR A CHILLED WATER PIPELINE? IT'S A CHILLED WATER PIPELINE.
THAT WAS, THAT WAS JUST LIKE, AND WHAT ABOUT EIGHT AND NINE? WELL, I WAS CURIOUS ABOUT EIGHT.
SO EIGHT'S ABOUT, UM, DOING SOME, UM, SOME WORK ON THE DAM AROUND DECKER.
IS THERE ANY THAT'S A, IT'S A PRETTY BIG CHUNK OF, OF LAND OUT THERE AND I WAS JUST WONDERING IF THERE, IS THERE ANY, IS THERE, IS THERE ANY MOVEMENT OF, LIKE, IS THERE ANY POSSIBILITY OF EVER OPENING THAT UP TO LIKE A MORE OF A PARK TYPE SITUATION OR SOMETHING? THERE'S LIKE THE LOWER WALNUT CREEK TRAIL RUNS PRETTY CLOSE TO IT ALONG ONE END OF IT.
IT'D BE A REALLY NICE THING TO HAVE IN THE CITY TO HAVE MORE ACCESS TO LIKE THAT AREA.
I KNOW YOU CAN GET INTO THE LAKE LIKE, YOU KNOW, FROM THERE, BUT, UM, THAT'S REALLY THE ONLY WAY IN.
IS THERE ANY, IS THERE ANY DISCUSSION ABOUT OPENING THAT UP IN ANY WAY? I DON'T KNOW IF THAT CONVERSATION HAS TAKEN PLACE, BUT THAT'S NOT PART OF ITEM EIGHT.
ITEM EIGHT IS ABOUT A REPAIR TO THE GATES FOR THE DAM ITSELF.
BUT JUST LIKE, I MEAN DOING INFRASTRUCTURE UPGRADES AND IT'S IN THE SAME AREA ROW, RIGHT? IT'S LIKE IT'S DECKER LAKE, RIGHT? IT IS, IT'S DECKER LAKE.
BUT THIS IS ABOUT A REPAIR TO THE STRUCTURE OF THE DAM ITSELF.
AND YOUR QUESTION IS ABOUT A PARK.
WELL, I WAS JUST, NO, LIKE IT'S THE SAME AREA, SO IT WAS LIKE, UM, YEAH, I, IT IT WOULD BE INFRASTRUCTURE IN THAT SAME AREA.
SO I WAS JUST, YEAH, SO MAYBE IT'S NOT, IT'S NOT THE RIGHT CONVERSATION.
I JUST DIDN'T KNOW IF THAT HAD EVER COME UP OR LIKE, UH, IN, IN DISCUSSIONS AROUND, AROUND THE DAM OR AROUND THE, THAT LAND AROUND THE LAKE.
AND NUMBER NINE, YOU HAD QUESTIONS ON NINE? YEAH, I WAS JUST CURIOUS.
I WAS JUST CURIOUS WHERE WE ARE ON, UH, IF WE HAD AN UPDATE OF WHERE WE ARE ON TREE TRIMMING IN GENERAL SINCE WHAT WE'RE, SINCE THAT'S WHAT THIS ONE'S ABOUT.
HEY, WHAT'S UP GUYS? ELTON RICHARDS, VICE PRESIDENT FIELD OPERATIONS.
WHAT'S QUESTION JOSH? OH, JUST, UH, JUST A, JUST A GENERAL UPDATE ON KIND OF WHERE WE ARE ON THE BACKLOG OF TREE TRIMMING.
I, I THINK IF WE DO THAT, WE'D NEED TO PUT THAT ON ANOTHER AGENDA ITEM.
THIS ONE'S SPECIFICALLY FOR THE BUDGET ON A NEW TREE TRIM CYCLE.
UH, I WILL TELL YOU THAT WE JUST RECEIVED SOME GRANT FUNDS ALSO FOR THE VEGETATION.
SO I'M, I'M FEELING PRETTY COMFORTABLE WHERE WE'RE AT OVER THE NEXT THREE TO FOUR YEARS ON THE VEG.
AND WE'VE ACTUALLY DONE A, A PRETTY INCREDIBLE JOB ON WHAT WE'VE HAD SO FAR.
UH, WE'VE GOTTEN MOST OF THE, THE TOP WILDFIRE RISK AREAS.
UH, WE GOT THE WEST, UH, THE WEST CAMPUS AREA FOR THE SAFE HORN DOWN THERE AND WE CONTINUE TO, TO KNOCK OUT THE CIRCUITS AS BEST WE CAN.
SO IF YOU WANT MORE DETAIL ON WHAT'S COMING UP FOR 2025, WE CAN DEFINITELY PUT THAT ON ANOTHER AGENDA ITEM.
CAN WE GET THAT TO NEXT MONTH? LET'S NOT BE HASTY, DAVE.
WELL YOU'RE ROCKING AND ROLLING.
YOU SEE
IS IT STILL, WHAT YOU GOT, DAVE? THE LAST CYCLE? I MEAN, OR THIS CYCLE? IS IT STILL ON TARGET TO GET DONE BY 2026? WAS IT THE END OF 2027? IF I'M NOT MISTAKEN.
AND THAT'S CALENDAR YEAR 2027 BECAUSE THE WAY THE BUDGETING WENT ON THAT, WE DIDN'T DO IT THE FISCAL YEAR.
OKAY, SO WE HAVE SEVEN, EIGHT, AND NINE.
DO WE HAVE A MOTION? SO MOVED.
DO WE HAVE A SECOND? SECOND CYRUS ALL IN FAVOR SAY AYE.
LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE ALL FOUR ONLINE AND THEN ON 10, I GUESS
[10. Discussion and approval of the 2025 Electric Utility Commission Meeting Schedule]
I EFFECTIVELY PULL THAT.CAN YOU PULL UP AND PUT IT ON THE SCREEN?
[00:25:01]
IT'S, IT LOOKS LIKE IT'S THE SAME SECOND MONDAY OF EVERY MONTH.SO THE ONLY DIFFERENCE FROM THIS YEAR IS THIS YEAR WE WAITED, WE HAD IN MARCH BECAUSE OF SPRING BREAK WE HAD IT IN THE THIRD WEEK, BUT NEXT YEAR WE DON'T NEED TO DO THAT BECAUSE SPRING BREAK IS THE THIRD WEEK AS OPPOSED TO THE SECOND.
UH, ONE FIRST, UH, VARIOUS RELIGIOUS HOLIDAYS HAVE BEEN FACTORED IN MAJOR RELIGIOUS HOLIDAYS.
SO, UH, THE OCTOBER MEETING, WE ALSO, AS YOU KNOW, WE ARE MEETING A WEEK LATER NOW.
UM, AND WE ARE GOING BACK TO THE ORIGINAL SECOND MONDAY IN OCTOBER BECAUSE THAT IS NO LONGER A CITY HOLIDAY.
AND, AND SECONDLY, UH, IN, IN APPROVING THIS, AT LEAST IT'S, IT WOULD BE MY INTENTION THAT THERE WERE NOT IN ESSENCE HANDCUFFING US OUR FUTURE MEMBERS TO THE AGENDA ITEMS SUBMITTED DUE DATE.
BECAUSE A LOT OF TIMES THERE'S INFORMATION AS, AS STAFF HAS PRESENTED TODAY, UH, THAT COMES IN AND TO, UH, SET, UH, REQUIREMENTS FOR EUC MEMBERS TO SUBMIT MATTERS A WEEK AHEAD IS, IS CHALLENGING.
SO I CERTAINLY, I'M HAPPY TO MOVE THE, UH, UH, MEETING DATES, BUT, UH, KEEP FLEXIBILITY REGARDING, UH, DUE SUBMISSION DUE DATES.
WELL, ARE THERE ONES THAT CONFLICT? I MEAN, ALL THESE ARE JUST SIMPLY THE EUC MEETING DATE MINUS A WEEK, RIGHT? RIGHT, RIGHT.
AND THAT'S WHAT I'M SAYING IS, IS WE'RE NOT HANDCUFFING OURSELF TO THE SECOND COLUMN THAT SAYS, WE COULD SAY TARGET DATES OR SOMETHING OF THAT NATURE, BUT TO, UH, PREVENT, UH, US FROM DRAFTING RESOLUTIONS THAT WE MIGHT WANNA CONSIDER, UH, A WEEK IN ADVANCE IS, IS TOO FAR.
ALSO, I'M GONNA FLAG, I'M GUESSING THAT SEPTEMBER ONE IS LABOR DAY, SO THAT'S NOT A GOOD DUE DATE.
UM, AND I GUESS ON THE OCTOBER MEETING, UM, I KNOW MY ORGANIZATION ACTUALLY DOES HAVE THE DAY WE ARE NOT CELEBRATING COLUMBUS, BUT IT'S ALSO INDIGENOUS PEOPLE'S DAY.
SO I WOULD SUGGEST THAT WE DON'T MEET THAT DAY.
A LOT OF SCHOOLS ARE ALSO CLOSED THAT DAY, SO IT'S NOT A GREAT MEETING TO, SO HOW WOULD YOU WANNA MODIFY IT? DO THE SAME THING WE DID THIS YEAR AND JUST PUSH IT BACK ONE WEEK? OKAY.
SO, AND THAT'S IN OCTOBER? YEAH.
SO WOULD INSTEAD OF OCTOBER 13TH WE'D MEET THE 20TH.
AMY, WHAT DO YOU THINK? UH, IT'S UP TO YOU GUYS.
AS FAR AS OCTOBER 20TH, CAN I ASK A QUESTION ABOUT, SORRY, CAN I ASK A QUESTION ABOUT THE AGENDA ITEM SUBMITTAL DUE DATE? I GUESS, DOES THAT MEAN THE AGENDA ITEM HAS TO BE SUBMITTED, THE SORT OF WHAT'S GONNA BE ON THE AGENDA? OR DOES THAT MEAN THE ACTUAL BACK, YOU KNOW, ALL THE MATERIALS HAVE TO BE SUBMITTED 'CAUSE IT'S NOT THAT BIG A DEAL.
YEAH, IT IT, WHY DON'T WE SIMPLY AGREE ON THE MEETING DATES YEAH.
SO YOU'RE ACTUALLY VOTING ON THE MEETING DATES AND NOT THE AGENDA ITEM.
THAT COLUMN IS, IF YOU HAVE A ITEM YOU WOULD LIKE TO HAVE ON THE AGENDA, THAT'S A DUE DATE FOR YOU TO SUBMIT YOUR ITEM IN YOUR POSTING LANGUAGE AND ALL OF YOUR BACKUP TO US BY THAT DATE.
BUT THAT'S NOT THE DATE THAT THE CLERK'S OFFICE SETS LIKE Y'ALL HAVE SET THAT DATE.
YES, THAT DATE IS SET BY US, NOT THE CLERK'S OFFICE.
AND SO HOW MANY DAYS AHEAD DOES THE CLERK'S OFFICE SAY IT'S JUST THE THREE DAY POSTING? YEAH, SO FRIDAY, I MEAN, OBVIOUSLY, AND SOMETIMES THAT WE ACTUALLY, YOU KNOW, FAIR ENOUGH, THEY NEED TO WRITE THE AGENDA AND, AND GET IT POSTED.
SO I'M NOT SAYING WE SHOULD SUBMIT THINGS ON FRIDAY.
[00:30:01]
HAS A FAIR POINT, LIKE MONDAY IS RIGHT.WELL, AND THIS HAS WORKED PRETTY WELL IN THAT BEING SORT OF A COURTESY TO AUSTIN ENERGY.
SO YOU ALL HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO WORK THROUGH STAFF, RIGHT? CORRECT.
IS THERE SOMETHING THAT YOU CAN MAYBE LIGHTEN IT UP A LITTLE BIT FROM A FULL WEEK IS WEDNESDAY OR SOMETHING INSTEAD OF THE, BY THE WAY, UH, THE, WE HAVE A NEW SET OF MICROPHONES.
I'M NOT SURE HOW THEY'RE WORKING, ESPECIALLY FOR PEOPLE ONLINE.
WE'VE HAD THEM FOR THE LAST SEVERAL MEETINGS.
YOU JUST HAVEN'T, YOU'VE BEEN ONLINE FOR THE LAST FEW MEETINGS, UM, TO RESPOND TO YOUR QUESTION, YEAH, I MEAN, WE, WE HAVE NOT HAD AN ISSUE WITH THE WEEK AHEAD DEADLINE THIS YEAR, SO IT'S WELL YET YOU, YOU, YOU DIDN'T LET ME PUT MY, UH, SOLAR ITEM, MY SOLAR RESOLUTION ON THE AGENDA.
SO WE HAD TO DO IT IN THE, AT THE NEXT MEETING BECAUSE IT WAS LATE.
WELL, IT WAS LATE ACCORDING TO AN ARTIFICIAL SCHEDULE THAT Y'ALL HAVE CREATED
YEAH, BUT I MEAN, TO BE FAIR TO STAFF, YOU CAN'T JUST GIVE US INFORMATION AND THE MEETING IS LIKE IN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
I MEAN, I GAVE IT TO YOU ON A TUESDAY AND I THINK THAT WAS A SITUATION WHERE MONDAY WAS A HOLIDAY.
LIKE I THINK THAT WAS LIKE WE'VE SET OURSELVES UP FOR RIGHT HERE WITH SEPTEMBER 1ST.
WELL, THAT'S WHY WE HAVE THE SCHEDULE TO HELP.
ARE Y'ALL WORKING ON LABOR DAY? NO, WE'RE NOT.
WE CAN TALK OFFLINE ABOUT THE DEADLINES AND THE COURTESIES ASSOCIATED WITH THAT.
THE ONLY ONE I'M HEARING THAT IS SUGGESTED TO BE CHANGED IS OCTOBER 13TH GOING TO OCTOBER 20TH.
DO I HAVE A SECOND? I'LL SECOND.
SO WE'VE GOT THE SCHEDULES LOCKED DOWN AND WE'LL TALK OFFLINE ABOUT THE OTHER THINGS.
[11. Staff briefing and process update on the Resource, Generation, and Climate Protection Plan by Lisa Martin, Deputy General Manager and Chief Operating Officer, and Lynda Rife, President of Rifeline]
TO 11 STAFF BRIEFINGS.GOOD EVENING, CHAIR, TUTTLE, VICE CHAIR, WHITE AND COMMISSIONERS, UH, HERE AND ONLINE.
I'M LISA MARTIN, AUSTIN ENERGY'S CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER.
TONIGHT WE HAVE TWO PRESENTATIONS FOR YOU.
I'LL COME UP BEFORE EACH ONE OF THEM.
UM, BUT THEY'RE BOTH REGARDING THE RESOURCE GENERATION PLAN EFFORTS.
FIRST STEP, WE HAVE LINDA RIFE HERE TO PRESENT A REPORT OUT ON THE FOURTH STAKEHOLDER WORKSHOP.
THANK YOU FOR HAVING ME HERE TONIGHT.
LET ME SEE IF I GET THIS RIGHT.
I SHOULD HAVE ASKED THIS QUESTION AS A REMINDER.
THIS IS THE GROUP OF PEOPLE THAT ARE IN THE STAKEHOLDER MEETINGS.
IT LOOKS A LITTLE DIFFERENT BECAUSE WE FINALLY HAD TIME TO FIND EVERYBODY'S LOGOS AND PUT THEM UP THERE, BUT IT WAS A WIDE RANGING GROUP OF PEOPLE THAT WE TALKED WITH.
SO WE, UM, DID WORKSHOP NUMBER FOUR, UM, WITH AUSTIN ENERGY ON THURSDAY, OCTOBER 3RD.
I'M SORRY, I'M HAVING SUCH A PROBLEM WITH THIS.
UM, WHERE WE TALKED REALLY ABOUT THE RESULTS FROM THE OTHER MEETINGS.
WE'VE BEEN TALKING TO PEOPLE AND LISTENING FOR ABOUT THREE MEETINGS.
AND NOW WE WERE REALLY, WE'RE PROVIDING BACK HERE'S WHAT WE'VE HEARD AND HOW WE'RE USING IT.
AND SO WE ALSO TALKED ABOUT SOME VALUES AND OBJECTIVES, AND WE'LL TALK THROUGH THAT HERE NOW.
SO WE DID PROVIDE THEM WITH THE SAME REPORT OUT THAT WE HAD TALKED TO YOU ALL ABOUT.
UM, AND IN THE KEY TAKEAWAYS FOR WORKSHOP THREE, WE GOT A THUMBS UP THAT THEY FELT THAT WE HAD REPORTED OUT WHAT THEY THOUGHT, UM, THAT, THAT WE, THEY'VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT THAT REBUT LIABILITY IS A COMMUNITIES TOP PRIORITY.
ACROSS BOARD EQUITY CONTINUES TO BE A MAJOR THEME AND DISCUSSION POINT THROUGHOUT THE WORKSHOP.
THE IMPACTS OF OUTAGES CAN BE DETRIMENTAL TO VULNERABLE COMMUNITIES.
AND AUSTIN ENERGY'S ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY LEADERSHIP SHOULD BE APPLAUDED.
UM, WE ALSO TALK SPECIFICALLY ABOUT EQUITY AND THE GROUP FELT LIKE WE WERE GENERALLY ME, UH, MOVING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION.
LISA PRESENTED SOME INFORMATION ON PROCEDURAL EQUITY, WHICH FOCUSES ON ENSURING FAIR AND INCLUSIVE PARTICIPATION IN THE DECISION MAKING PROCESS.
[00:35:01]
RECOGNITION EQUITY AIMS TO UNDERSTAND AND ADDRESS PAST AND PRESENT, UH, ENERGY EQUITIES AND DISTRIBUTIONAL EQUITY FOCUSES ON JUST AND EQUITABLE DISTRIBUTION OF BENEFITS AND IMPACTS IN AUSTIN'S CLEAN ENERGY TRANSITION.WE DID HEAR SOME CONCERNS ABOUT THE MEDICALLY VULNERABLE AND ENCOURAGING AUSTIN ENERGY TO EXPAND THAT CAP PROGRAM, BUT IN GENERAL, WE GOT A THUMBS UP ON THE DIRECTION THAT AUSTIN ENERGY WAS TAKING.
WE ALSO, UM, AUSTRIAN ENERGY PREVENTED, UH, PRESENTED SOME VALUE STATEMENTS.
UM, AND THEY HAD A VALUE STATEMENT ON RELIABILITY, AFFORDABILITY, ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY, AND ENERGY EQUITY.
UM, AND AGAIN, WE HAD A GENERALLY MOVING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION.
I'M GONNA KEEP GOING HERE 'CAUSE I'M GONNA READ YOU SOME CHANGES HERE IN A MINUTE OF HOW THOSE CHANGED.
SO THEY WERE PRESENTED ORIGINALLY LIKE THIS IN THIS AREA, BUT WHAT WE HEARD WAS TO STRENGTHEN WORDS LIKE UNDERSTANDING AND ASSESSING AND TO MAKE THESE STATEMENTS MORE ACTIONABLE.
WE ALSO HEARD PREDICTABILITY, UH, WITH BOTH RELIABILITY AND AFFORDABILITY AND IMPROVED COMMUNICATION IN THE COMMUNITY AND INCLUDE MORE REFERENCES TO CLIMATE CHANGE ISSUES ON THE VALUES.
AUSTIN ENERGY HAS MADE THOSE CHANGES TO UPDATE THE VALUE STATEMENTS THEY PRESENTED RELIABILITY STAYED THE SAME, BUT AFFORDABILITY, THEY TALKED ABOUT, UM, ASSESSING THE IMPACTS AND PROMOTING FAIRNESS, UH, OF COST.
UH, AND IN ENERGY EQUITY, THEY MADE MORE SPECIFIC REFERENCE TO WHAT THEY WERE MEANING IN, IN UNDERSTANDING, AND TALKED ABOUT REDUCING THE IMPACT OF OPERATIONS ON THE COMMUNITY IN REGARD TO CLIMATE CHANGE.
THOSE ARE REALLY MORE REFLECTED MORE IN THE OBJECTIVES AND, AND WILL IN THE KEY RESULTS AS WELL.
SO THOSE ARE THE CHANGES THAT WERE BEING MADE.
WE'LL PRESENT THOSE BACK TO THE STAKEHOLDERS IN UPCOMING, UM, EITHER A SURVEY OR EMAIL OR MEETING.
WE'RE NOT QUITE SURE YET ON THE OBJECTIVES.
UM, THE, THERE WAS THREE OBJECTIVES THAT AUSTIN ENERGY PROJE, UM, PRESENTED.
UM, AND MOST OF THESE WORDS CAME FROM MEETING THE, ALL THE INPUT WE'VE HAD.
THEY DIDN'T SIT IN THE DARK ROOM AND MAKE UP THESE THINGS.
THEY, WE WERE LOOKING AT THE WORDS THE GROUP SAID, WE GOT A GENERAL THUMBS UP THAT THEY WERE MOVING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION ON THESE OBJECTIVES.
HOWEVER, WE DID HEAR SOME SPECIFIC THINGS ON MAKING CHANGES.
AND WHAT WE, UM, HEARD IS, UM, PRIORITIZE, UH, RELIABILITY, BUT THEY DON'T AGREE WITH THE RELIABILITY AND RESILIENCE OVER ALL OTHER VALUES.
BE CAREFUL THAT WE AREN'T PROMISING A HUNDRED PERCENT RELIABILITY.
SHORT DURATION OUT, UH, OUTAGES MUST, MIGHT, MIGHT BE OKAY.
LOOK AT BI IMPACTS TODAY AS WELL AS IN THE FUTURE WHEN LOOKING AT AFFORDABILITY.
CONSIDER THE FEES ASSOCIATED WITH DISCONNECTIONS OR LATE PAYMENTS.
CLARIFY THE LANGUAGE OF MAINTAINING SUPPORTABLE LEVELS.
EXPAND EMISSIONS TO INCLUDE OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTANTS OR ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS.
EXPAND ENVIRONMENTAL AND SUSTAINABILITY TO INCLUDE RESOURCE CONSERVATION, TAKE INTO ACCOUNT LIFECYCLE ASSESSMENTS AND FULL TRANSPARENCY.
AND THEN THERE WAS A QUESTION ABOUT WHAT MITIGATE REMAINING EMISSIONS MEANS.
SO WHAT, UM, AUSTIN ENERGY HAS DONE IN THE MEANTIME IS ON RELIABILITY.
UM, WE TOOK OUT THE LANGUAGE THAT SAID OVER OTHER VALUES, SO PRIORITIZE RELIABILITY AND RESILIENCE, BUT REMOVED OVER OTHER VALUES.
WE ADDED MITIGATE OR THEY ADDED, MITIGATE THE RISK OF LONG DURATION STATEWIDE AND LOCALIZED SYSTEM OUTRAGE OUTAGE EVENTS.
THEY ALSO TALKED ABOUT TIMELY COMMUNICATION, WHICH WAS ASKED FOR IN WHAT THEY HEARD ON THE AFFORDABILITY.
UM, HERE THE BIG ISSUE WAS ADDING PREDICTABILITY IN THERE.
SO THAT HAS BEEN, UM, IN THERE AND RE REMOVED WAS MAINTAINING SUPPORTABLE LEVELS AND JUST TALKED SPECIFICALLY ABOUT IN SUPPORT AND MADE THAT STATEMENT MORE ACTIONABLE OF RELIABLE AND ENVIRONMENTAL ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY.
AND IN ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY OBJECTIVE, WE, UM, THEY DID EXPAND THAT TO INCLUDE OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS AS AND UM, ALSO JUST, UH, EMPHASIZE TO MITIGATE ANY REMAINING EMISSIONS WHILE SUPPORTING AFFORDABILITY.
SO THOSE ARE THE CHANGES THAT WILL BE MADE AND WE'LL SEND THOSE BACK OUT TO STAKEHOLDERS.
IN GENERAL, WE ASK ABOUT THE PROCESS AND KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM THAT PROCESS.
UM, WHAT WE HEARD BACK FROM THE PARTICIPANTS IS, AUSTIN ENERGY HAS TO FACE TOUGH BALANCE BETWEEN ALL THE NEEDS.
THE WORKSHOPS HAVE BEEN A REAL EYE-OPENER.
A LOT OF THESE STAKEHOLDERS, THEY'RE NEW TO THIS PROCESS AND THEY LEARNED A LOT.
ENSURE THIS PLAN AND THIS PROCESS IS COMMUNICATED TO THE PUBLIC.
UM, CLIMATE HAS TO BE PRIORITIZED.
WE NEED TO KEEP CLIMATE DISASTERS IN MIND, SUCH AS THE RECENT HURRICANES, A LOOK AT NUCLEAR AS PART OF THE PO PORTFOLIOS
[00:40:01]
AND INCREASE ENERGY EFFICIENCIES.WHEN WE WENT AROUND THE ROOM, WE ASKED PEOPLE IF THEY JUST WANTED TO COMMENT IN THE, IN THE MEETING NOTES THAT YOU EITHER HAVE RECEIVED OR WILL RECEIVE.
YOU CAN READ THE FULL TRANSCRIPTION OF ALL THE COMMENTS, BUT I PICKED A FEW THAT I FELT THAT, UM, WAS PARTICULARLY GOOD.
NANCY CRUTHERS WITH ADAPT, UM, SAID.
I JUST WANTED TO RE REITERATE ALSO ABOUT THE AGING OF OUR COMMUNITY AND LOOKING FORWARD TO THEIR LONGEVITY AND STABILITY HERE IN AUSTIN.
THERE ARE SOME FOLKS THAT HAVE BEEN HERE FOR 80 YEARS AND THEY SAY THEY CAN'T TAKE IT ANYMORE.
CAN'T AFFORD IT, CAN'T DO ANYTHING ANYMORE.
THAT'S A SAD THING TO SAVE OUR COMMUNITY.
THAT'S WHAT WE'VE GOT TO REMEMBER.
IT'S OUR COMMUNITY AND SO LET'S DO IT RIGHT.
UH, TEAM AND CANNON SAID, I DON'T THINK WE TALK ABOUT SMALL BUSINESSES AND LOCAL OPERATIONS THAT ARE JUST TRYING TO SUSTAIN EVERY DAY.
THEY'RE LOOKING AT RISING COST, BOTH FROM VERY GOOD TAX RATE ELECTIONS THAT'S COMING ABOUT, BUT ALSO RISING HEALTHCARE COST.
I WANNA MAKE SURE WE'RE INCLUDING IN THE DISCUSSION WHEN WE'RE TALKING ABOUT MARGINALIZED COMMUNITIES, THAT WE INCLUDE WHAT, UH, WE CALL OUR MOM AND MOM AND POP AND POP SHOPS.
THAT'S TINA CANNON WITH THE LGBT CHAMBER OF COMMERCE.
UM, WE ALSO TALKED, UM, LUKE METZNER METZKER WITH ENVIRONMENT.
TEXAS SAID, I THINK CLIMATE HAS TO BE A CENTRAL ORGANIZING PRINCIPLE OF OUR UTILITY BECAUSE WE NEED TO DO WHAT WE CAN TO AVOID HURRICANE HELENA AND THE MILLIONS OF CLIMATE REFUGEES THAT GLOBAL WARMING IS CAUSING.
I'M PERFECTLY HAPPY TO LOSE POWER FOR A FEW HOURS A YEAR IF IT MEANS WE'RE AVOIDING POLLUTING THE PLANET.
AT THE SAME TIME, WE NEED TO ABSOLUTELY PROTECT THE MEDICAL FRAGILE.
AND THEN CARMEN TILTON WITH THE TEXAS ASSISTED LIVING ASSOCIATION.
AUSTIN ENERGY HAS A GREAT PLAN AND HAD AND HAVE HAD A BIG ROOM WITH GOOD CONVERSATIONS.
I WOULD LOVE TO SEE BETTER ENGAGEMENT AND DIALOGUE BETWEEN THE UTILITY AND THE COMMUNITY SO THAT THE BROADER AUSTIN COMMUNITY BUSINESSES, RESIDENTS, COMMERCIAL IS AWARE OF WHAT'S GOING ON AND FEELS LIKE THEY KNOW HOW TO ENGAGE WITH THEIR UTILITY PROVIDER WHEN THEY HAVE ISSUES, QUESTIONS, AND THINGS ARE GOING ON.
SO WE GOT A LOT OF GOOD, GOOD INFORMATION FROM A LOT OF BROAD DIVERSE GROUPS OF PEOPLE AND THEY WERE VERY PLEASED THAT THEY WERE INCLUDED.
SO THANK YOU FOR YOUR, UM, SUPPORT OF THAT PROCESS.
UM, THAT PARTNERSHIP CONTINUES.
UM, WE PROMISED THAT WE WOULD INFORM, UM, THAT WE ASK THEM IF THEY WOULD INFORM AND EDUCATE THEIR ORGANIZATIONS IN THE COMMUNITIES AND THE PEOPLE THAT THEY REPRESENT.
WE'VE, UM, ASKED THEM TO STAY IN TOUCH WITH US AND IF THEY WANNA REACH OUT, IF THERE'S EVENTS OR OTHER THINGS THEY NEED, WE TOLD THEM THAT WE WOULD PROVIDE THEM INFORMATION ABOUT THE WORK THAT YOU WERE DOING AS WELL AS THE COUNCIL AND, UH, MAKE SURE THAT THEY HAD COPIES OF THE PLAN SO THEY STAY ENGAGED IN THE PROCESS.
UM, I KNOW THAT WAS KIND OF A LOT, BUT THAT'S IN YOUR PACKAGE.
BUT IS THERE ANY QUESTIONS OR ANYTHING ELSE THAT YOU'D LIKE TO ASK ME? NO, JUST THANK YOU FOR THE WORK AND APPRECIATE THE WAY THAT, UH, YOU'RE USING THE PROCESS TO LOOK AT THOSE, UM, OBJECTIVES AND VALUES.
THEY, THOSE WORDS ALL CAME OUT OF A LOT OF THOSE NOTES.
SO WE CAN, WE CAN TRACK 'EM BACK.
LISA'S TECHNICAL ABOUT ALL THAT STUFF.
ANY QUESTIONS ONLINE? ALL RIGHT.
WELL, AND THANK YOU FOR YOUR PATIENCE WHILE I TURN MY CLICKER UPSIDE DOWN.
NEXT WE HAVE MICHAEL, LISA, DO
[12. Staff briefing and Modeling Overview for the Resource, Generation, and Climate Protection Plan by Michael Enger, Vice President of Energy Market Operations.]
YOU HAVE SOMETHING? ALL RIGHT.I'M JUST GONNA INTRODUCE MICHAEL.
AND, UH, SO, UM, AFTER THE LAST MEETING WHEN MICHAEL PRESENTED, UM, ALL THE ROUND ONE PORTFOLIO, UH, MODELING RESULTS, UM, SEVERAL OF THE EEC COMMISSIONERS WORKED WITH AUSTIN ENERGY TO REFINE SOME OF THE PORTFOLIOS.
SO THANK YOU ALL FOR YOUR ENGAGEMENT ON THAT.
UM, FOR A ROUND TWO OF MODELING TONIGHT, TONIGHT, MICHAEL WILL PRESENT THE RESULTS OF THREE OF THOSE PORTFOLIOS DEFINED BY THE EUC.
BUT I DID WANNA JUST CLARIFY 'CAUSE I KNOW YOU RECEIVED A COUPLE OF EMAILS FROM ME OVER THE WEEKEND, UM, THAT WE DID HAVE A FOURTH PORTFOLIO, WE CALL IT PORTFOLIO 14.
AND AFTER WE, UM, IDENTIFIED THAT THERE WAS AN ERROR IN THE RESULTS, WE LOOKED A LITTLE DEEPER AND, AND DETERMINED THAT THAT ONE NEEDED TO BE RERUN.
SO WE PULLED THOSE RESULTS OUT ENTIRELY FROM THE PRESENTATION TONIGHT.
WE WILL SEND THOSE TO YOU AS SOON AS WE HAVE THEM AVAILABLE, AND WE WILL MAKE OURSELVES AVAILABLE TO DISCUSS THAT WITH YOU.
UM, IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS, UM, I APOLOGIZE FOR THAT.
UM, BUT WE WANTED TO MAKE SURE THAT YOU HAD, UM, CLEAN RESULTS.
AND SO WE'RE ONLY LOOKING AT 15, 16, AND 17 TONIGHT.
UM, ALSO WE SENT OUT A DECK WITH APPENDICES, UM, VIA EMAIL.
I THINK AMY SENT THAT OUT, UM, JUST BEFORE THIS MEETING.
SO PLEASE REFER TO THAT VERSION FOR TONIGHT'S PRESENTATION.
YOU MAY HAVE SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT THOSE APPENDICES.
UM, AND WE HAVE THOSE AVAILABLE IF YOU DO HAVE QUESTIONS.
[00:45:01]
COULD, DO YOU HAVE ANY SENSE OF THE TIMING OF WHEN WE GET THE, FOR MODEL ONE 14? I THINK IT'S GONNA BE ABOUT A WEEK.WE WANNA MAKE SURE WE HAVE APPROPRIATE QA, QC TO SEND IT TO YOU AND NOT HAVE TO PULL IT BACK.
SO I THINK IT'S GOING TO BE ABOUT A WEEK.
SO I'M LOOKING LIKE AT SLIDE 11 AND I SEE 14 IS STILL ON THERE.
TELL ME WHAT SLIDE YOU'RE THE PRINTED VERSION.
SO, SO WE HAVE INCLUDED IT IN THE, YOU'LL SEE IT REFERENCED ON SLIDE SIX, SEVEN AND, AND 11, BECAUSE THAT JUST DESCRIBES WHAT THAT PORTFOLIO MAKEUP IS.
BUT WE PULLED OUT ALL OF THE RESULTS.
YES, THANK YOU FOR THE CLARIFICATION.
YEAH, WE JUST WANTED YOU TO BE ABLE TO SEE WHAT IT WAS AND WHAT IT WILL BE AND AS WE RERUN IT, AND CYRUS, I, I THINK, I THINK IT'S ABOUT A WEEK, BUT I, WE GOTTA MAKE SURE THAT THE TEAM GETS IT RIGHT.
SO, ALL RIGHT, I'LL TURN IT OVER TO MIKE.
UH, MY NAME IS MICHAEL ENGER, VICE PRESIDENT OF ENERGY MARKET OPERATIONS AND RESOURCE PLANNING.
AND WE'RE HERE TO TALK ABOUT ROUND TWO MODELING RESULTS.
SO JUST TO START OFF WITH A QUICK AGENDA, WE'LL DO A RECAP OF THE MODELING TIMELINE.
UH, WE'LL GO OVER SOME OF THE ROUND TWO MODELING RESULTS FOR 15, 16, AND 17 AS MENTIONED EARLIER.
WE'LL TALK A LITTLE BIT ABOUT IN SOME INSIGHTS FROM MODELING TO DATE, AND THEN WE'LL WRAP UP WITH DISCUSSION AND NEXT STEPS.
ALL RIGHT, SO MODELING TIMELINE, JUST TO KIND OF TAKE, TAKE A LOOK BACK, UH, YOU KNOW, WE MET BACK IN JULY IS WHEN WE, UH, REVIEWED MODELING FRAMEWORK, WHICH WAS THE INPUT AND ASSUMPTIONS AND DISCUSSED AND TALKED ABOUT THOSE.
THEN IN AUGUST, UH, WE LOOKED AT THE EUC FOR SOME PORTFOLIO INPUTS ON HOW TO FORM SOME OF THE PORTFOLIOS.
UH, WE CAME BACK AT THE VERY END OF SEPTEMBER AND WE PRESENTED RESULTS THERE FROM THOSE PORTFOLIOS.
THAT'S WHAT WE DID LAST TIME AROUND.
UH, FROM THERE WE HAD SOME OFFICE HOURS.
UH, WE HAD SOME NEW PORTFOLIOS FROM THE EUC AS, AS WELL AS ONE THAT WE'RE STILL RUNNING HERE AT AE.
UM, AND SO NOW WE'RE BACK TODAY TO TALK ABOUT THOSE RESULTS, UH, FROM THOSE, THOSE THREE NEW PORTFOLIOS.
AND WE'RE ALSO WANNA TALK A LITTLE BIT ABOUT HOW WE'RE NOW TRANSITIONING A LITTLE BIT AS WE TALK ABOUT RESOURCE PLANNING AND THE DEVELOPMENT.
UM, SO WE HAVE BEEN REALLY HEAVY IN THE, IN THE RESOURCE MODELING PHASE, AND WE'VE BEEN DOING THAT TO BETTER UNDERSTAND HOW DIFFERENT PORTFOLIO MIXES WOULD HELP US MEET AND THE GOALS AND VALUES OF OUR COMMUNITY.
WE WANTED TO LOOK AT DIFFERENT TRADE-OFFS, UH, DIFFERENT COSTS, THINGS OF THAT NATURE, AND, AND SEE HOW ALL THAT WOULD WORK WITHIN, UM, WITHIN THE MODEL.
SO WE COULD KIND OF COMPARE AND CONTRAST.
UH, NOW THAT WE'RE WRAPPING UP THE MODELING PORTION, I KNOW THERE'S STILL A LITTLE BIT MORE TO GO, BUT WE'RE GONNA MOVE MORE INTO THE RESOURCE PLANNING PHASE, AND THAT'S WHERE WE USE, UTILIZE ALL THOSE INSIGHTS THAT WE LEARNED FROM THE MODELING AND ALL THE WORK WE HAVE DONE, UH, TO THEN LOOK TO INFORM THE PLAN AND SEE HOW, UH, WE CAN BUILD THE PORTFOLIO THAT WILL HELP MEET ALL THOSE VALUES, UH, THAT ARE IMPORTANT TO OUR COMMUNITY.
SO REALLY LEVERAGING WHAT CHARACTERISTICS WE FOUND THROUGH THAT WHOLE MODELING EXERCISE.
UH, AS LISA MENTIONED, WE DID HAVE A PORTFOLIO 14 THAT WE ARE STILL RUNNING THROUGH, UH, A FEW OF THE YEARS THERE.
THAT WAS A VARIATION ON PORTFOLIO 10, UH, WITH NEW INCREMENTAL LOCAL STORAGE AND GAS.
AND IT WAS REALLY DESIGNED TO KIND OF TEST WHAT, WHAT IS THAT FLOOR LEVEL OR THAT, THAT MINIMUM AMOUNT WE MIGHT NEED IN ORDER TO REALLY GET BETTER RELIABILITY RESULTS AS WE MOVED OUT OVER IN TIME AS THE LOAD CONTINUED TO GROW.
UM, WE ALSO HAD PORT PORTFOLIO 15, 16 AND 17 FROM THE EUC, AND THOSE WERE REALLY VARIATIONS OFF OF ORIGINALLY PORTFOLIO 12.
UM, YOU KNOW, THEY HAD VARYING AMOUNTS OF LOCAL STO, SOLAR, UH, STORAGE AND DR.
AND THEN TWO OF THOSE PORTFOLIOS KEPT SANDHILL, THE SANDHILL UNITS AND THE DECKER UNITS RUNNING THROUGH 2035 AND NOT SHUTTING DOWN AT THE END OF 2034 AS WELL.
UM, THIS IS JUST A, A REFERENCE SO YOU CAN LOOK AT WHAT THOSE DIFFERENCES WOULD BE.
SO SHADED AND GRAY ARE KIND OF THE, THE REFERENCE PORTFOLIOS 10 AND 12 AND THEN 14, 15, 16 AND 17.
YOU CAN SEE WHAT THOSE DIFFERENCES WERE.
SO FOR EXAMPLE, JUST, UH, HOW YOU MIGHT READ THIS IS IN PORTFOLIO 12.
ORIGINALLY WE HAD 525 MEGAWATTS OF LOCAL STORAGE.
YOU CAN SEE IN PORTFOLIO 15 THAT WAS INCREASED TO 625 MEGAWATTS OF LOCAL STORAGE.
SO THOSE ARE SOME OF THE CHANGES BETWEEN PORTFOLIO 12, 15, 16, AND 17.
UH, QUICK QUESTION, MICHAEL, ON YES ON, AND I KNOW YOU HAVEN'T YET COMPLETED 14, BUT IS THERE, IS THERE A CERTAIN YEAR WHEN YOU'RE ASSUMING THAT LOCAL STORAGE AND THE LOCAL PEAKERS WOULD COME ONLINE? UH, WE DO.
AND THAT SHOULD BE LISTED IN THE APPENDICES.
I BELIEVE THAT, UM, I'D HAVE TO GO BACK AND LOOK TO TELL YOU EXACTLY, BUT YEAH, WE LIST OUT WHEN THE MEGAWATTS ARE COMING ON FOR EACH YEAR FOR EACH TECHNOLOGY TYPE.
[00:50:05]
UM, THERE WAS ALSO A CHANGE THAT WE MADE IN ALL OF THE NEW PORTFOLIOS, 14, 15, 16, UH, AND 17 ALL INCLUDED.AND THAT WAS THE ADDITION OF, UH, TRANSMISSION IMPORT CAPACITY OF 250 MEGAWATTS.
AND THAT IS ABOVE AND BEYOND, UH, WHAT AUSTIN ENERGY'S ALREADY DOING IN THE TRANSMISSION DISTRIBUTION AREA, UH, WITH ALREADY PLANNED, UH, AND APPROVED PROJECTS.
SO THAT WOULD BE EVERYTHING WE'RE ALREADY PLANNING ON DOING OVER THE NEXT 11 YEARS, AS WELL AS SOME ADDITIONAL, UM, TRANSMISSION PROJECTS TO INCREASE THAT IMPORT CAPACITY.
AND THAT IMPORT CAPACITY CAME ON IN 2031.
AND THAT WAS JUST REALLY DESIGNED AROUND, UH, THE LENGTH OF TIME IT WOULD TAKE IF WE STARTED TODAY TO GET NEW TRANSMISSION LINES, UH, PLANNED, APPROVED, THE EQUIPMENT ORDERED AND THOSE BUILT.
SO, YOU KNOW, THERE'S A LITTLE BIT OF A LEAD TIME AND A LOT OF HIGH VOLTAGE EQUIPMENT.
UH, AND THERE'S A, A PROCESS YOU GO THROUGH WITH ERCOT IN ORDER TO GET PROJECTS, UH, APPROVED.
UH, AND WE CAN GO THROUGH WHAT, WHY THAT'S IMPORTANT.
I THINK WE'VE ALREADY TALKED ABOUT LOAD ZONE PRICE SEPARATION, UH, AT QUITE A LENGTH, BUT IF ANYBODY HAS ANY QUESTIONS AROUND THAT WOULD LIKE TO DISCUSS IMPORT CAPACITY, I'M HAPPY TO TALK ABOUT THAT AS WELL.
J JUST QUICK CLARIFICATION, I THINK 17 DID NOT INCLUDE THAT, JUST TO BE CLEAR.
COURSE 2014 AND THEN, UM, IT'S NOT THAT WE IDENTIFIED A SPECIFIC PROJECT, RIGHT? IT WAS JUST WE MADE AN ASSUMPTION OR HAVE YOU GUYS IDENTIFIED A SPECIFIC PROJECT, CORRECT.
IT WAS NOT, IT WAS NOT A SET OF PROJECTS.
UH, WE UTILIZED, UH, AN ASSUMPTION WITHIN THE MODEL TO, TO OPEN UP THAT TRANSMISSION CAPACITY, IMPORT CAPACITY.
BUT YES, IF WE WERE GONNA MOVE FORWARD TO GET THE ADDITIONAL 250 MEGAWATTS OF IMPORT CAPACITY, THAT WOULD REQUIRE QUITE A BIT OF WORK, UH, THAT WE WOULD HAVE TO DO TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHICH PROJECTS THAT WOULD BE.
UH, AND THAT WOULD, THAT WOULD CHANGE OVER TIME AS THINGS WITHIN THE SYSTEM CHANGED AS WELL.
SO THAT'S KIND OF MORE OF AN ITERATIVE PROCESS AS WE GET CLOSER TO DOING THAT.
UM, SO ALSO IN ADDITION TO, TO RUNNING THE, THE PORTFOLIOS, WE ALSO RAN SOME ADDITIONAL, WHAT WE'RE CALLING SCENARIOS HERE AS WELL.
AND THAT IS TO, TO LOOK AT OVER THE NEXT 11 YEARS ON SOME FUTURE STATES, IF, IF SOME OF OUR ASSUMPTIONS ARE, ARE TOO LOW OR, OR NOT CORRECT, HOW DO THESE PORTFOLIOS PERFORM? RIGHT? WE WANNA UNDERSTAND HOW WE PERFORM THROUGH DIFFERENT, UH, DIFFERENT RISK MATERIALIZING, WHETHER OR NOT WE ASSUME THEY'RE GONNA HAPPEN OR NOT.
AND SO JUST BEING AWARE OF, OF WHAT WOULD OCCUR.
AND SO ONE OF THOSE WAS AUSTIN ENERGY LOAD.
UH, WE HEAR A LOT IN ERCOT ABOUT HOW FAST THE LOAD IS GROWING.
WE HEAR A LOT ABOUT AI AND DATA CENTERS AND WHERE THEY MAY OR MAY NOT COME.
AND SO IF LOAD GROWS A LOT FASTER OR GROWS FASTER THAN WHAT OUR LOAD FORECAST WAS, UH, HOW DO THESE PORTFOLIOS PERFORM? SO IF IT WAS MORE IN LINE WITH THE WEBER GROUP'S ENERGY FORECAST, WHICH IS WHAT WE USE FOR OUR HIGHER LOAD FORECAST, WE ALSO WANNA LOOK AT HOW WE PERFORM DURING EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS.
UH, WE JUST HEARD A COUPLE PEOPLE TALK ABOUT MORE EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS THAT WE'RE SEEING A LITTLE BIT MORE OFTEN.
SO HOW DO THESE PORTFOLIOS PERFORM IN THOSE EVENTS AS WELL? AND WE TALKED A LITTLE BIT ABOUT WHAT THOSE EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS IN THE WERE IN THE PAST WHERE WE'RE USING ERCOT ASSUMPTIONS ON THEIR EXTREME SCENARIOS.
UH, WE LOOKED AT, UH, EXTREME LOCAL CON CONGESTION.
SO WHAT HAPPENS IF, IF A POWER LINE GOES OUT OR A POWER PLANT BREAKS, UH, DURING THOSE HIGH LOAD PERIODS OF TIME, HOW DOES THAT IMPACT BILLS AND AFFORDABILITY? AND THEN ALSO NATURAL GAS PRICES.
WE HAVE ASSUMPTIONS MADE THAT ARE LARGELY AROUND WHERE THAT FORWARD CURVE IS TRADING TODAY, AS WELL AS MAYBE SOME FORECASTED ASSUMPTIONS PAST THE FORWARD CURVE FROM SOMEONE LIKE WOOD MCKENZIE.
UH, BUT AS WE ALL SAW IN 2022, UH, THAT GEOPOLITICAL, UM, EVENTS CAN IMPACT LOCAL NATURAL GAS PRICES.
IN THAT INSTANCE, IT WASN'T REALLY FUNDAMENTAL.
IT WAS A MOMENT MO MORE OF A MOMENTUM MOVE IN THE MARKET.
AND SO WE DIDN'T SEE IT LAST AND WE CAME RIGHT BACK DOWN TO LOW $2 AN M-M-B-T-U, BUT THERE COULD BE OTHER EVENTS THAT COULD HAPPEN IN THE FUTURE THAT COULD DRIVE UP PRICES.
FOR EXAMPLE, WE IMPORT ABOUT FIVE, UH, BCFF NATURAL GAS FROM CANADA, UH, ON A DAILY BASIS, IF THOSE PIPELINES FOR WHATEVER REASON WERE TO STOP IMPORTING NATURAL GAS THE UNITED STATES, THAT WOULD INCREASE PRICES AS WELL.
SO UNDERSTANDING IF NATURAL GAS PRICES INCREASE, HOW DOES THAT IMPACT THE PORTFOLIO AND HOW DOES IT IMPACT RATES WITH THESE DIFFERENT PORTFOLIO MIXES? AND THEN YOU'VE SEEN THIS SLIDE BEFORE, BUT IT'S JUST IMPORTANT CONTEXT FOR THIS DISCUSSION IS THAT THE MODELS ARE INTENDED TO PROVIDE US INFORMATION TO HELP US MAKE BETTER DECISIONS THAN THE RESOURCE PLAN, BUT NONE OF THESE PORTFOLIOS HAVE BEEN RECOMMENDED AS A RESOURCE PLAN OR AS A SPECIFIC RESOURCE PLAN TO DATE.
SO THIS WAS THE SLIDE 11 THAT WAS MENTIONED EAR EARLIER.
THIS IS SHOWING SOME OF THE ASSUMPTIONS FROM THE PORTFOLIOS THAT WE PUT IN.
UH, HERE YOU HAVE PORTFOLIO 14, 15, 16, AND 17, UH, AND YOU HAVE THE ASSUMPTIONS FOR ENERGY EFFICIENCY, DEMAND RESPONSE, AND LOCAL SOLAR THAT WERE USED WITHIN THE MODEL.
UH, WE ALSO HAVE A DOTTED BLACK LINE THAT YOU CAN SEE GOING ACROSS EACH ONE OF THOSE.
[00:55:01]
THE MAX ECONOMIC MARKET POTENTIAL FROM THE RECENT DMV STUDY THAT WE COMMISSIONED.LET ME, LET ME ASK, UH, ON THE FIRST ONE, ENERGY EFFICIENCY, UH, WHEN WE LOOKED AT IT BEFORE, IT APPEARED TO BE MAXED OUT, CORRECT? UH, AND, AND YET THIS WOULD INDICATE IN THREE OF THOSE THAT THERE IS MASSIVE OPPORTUNITY.
WELL, THOSE ARE THE ASSUMPTIONS WE MODELED, UH, PER THE EUC.
THAT IS NOT NECESSARILY WHAT THE DMV STUDY TOLD US WAS FEASIBLE OR POSSIBLE FOR US TO DO GIVEN THAT CURRENT STUDY.
SO THERE'S KIND OF ABOVE AND BEYOND, UH, WHAT DMV BELIEVES IS THE MAX ECONOMIC, UH, MARKET POTENTIAL.
OKAY? IT'S AN ASSUMPTION THAT WE COULD GO 50%, BASICALLY IT'S 180 MEGAWATTS HIGHER, RIGHT? IS THAT RIGHT? IS 180 MEGAWATT.
IT'S BASICALLY SAYING OVER THE NEXT 10 YEARS WE COULD BUMP UP EACH YEAR'S GOALS BASICALLY BY 50%.
SO IT'S, IT'S AN, IT'S AN ASSUMPTION, BUT IT'S NOT A RESOURCE PLAN, BUT IT DOES GIVE SOME INFORMATION.
SO WE'LL START OFF WITH LOOKING AT SOME OF THE RESULTS WITH NET COST.
UH, WE WENT OVER WHAT NET COST WAS, UH, LAST TIME, SO I WAS JUST GONNA JUST BRIEFLY SHOW IT, BUT MOVE ON UNLESS ANYBODY HAD QUESTIONS AROUND NET COST.
AND AS YOU'RE ALL AWARE, WE BRING ALL THE, THE NET COST BACK TO A NET PRESENT VALUE THAT RECOGNIZES THAT WE'LL BE MAKING DIFFERENT INVESTMENTS AT DIFFERENT TIME PERIODS AND EACH OF THESE DIFFERENT PORTFOLIOS AND TO PULL UP BALL BACK TO A NET PRESENT VALUE OF THAT ENTIRE PORTFOLIO SO WE CAN KIND OF COMPARE THEM APPLES TO APPLES.
SO HERE YOU CAN SEE THE NET PRESENT VALUE FOR, UM, EACH FOR PORT PORTFOLIO, 15, 16, AND 17.
UH, THAT ORANGE BAR IS THE U PLAN RESULTS AND THEIR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
AND THEN THAT GRAY BAR WOULD BE, UH, ASCENDS MEAN, AND THEN YOU'LL SEE A LITTLE LINE THERE WITH TWO LITTLE DOTS AND THAT RECOGNIZES THE P 95 AND THE P FIVE VALUES AS WELL, WHICH AS YOU'LL REMEMBER, THAT'S KIND OF THE LOWEST FIFTH PERCENT PILE, THE HIGHEST 95TH PERCENTILE, AND KIND OF EVERYTHING IN BETWEEN.
SO IT GIVES US KIND OF A LITTLE BIT OF A, A RANGE OF OUTCOMES.
I'M JUST WONDERING, UH, WHY YOU DON'T HAVE THAT FOR THE U PLAN RESULTS.
YOU'VE RUN THOSE MULTIPLE TIMES TOO, RIGHT? SO U PLAN IS A MORE OF A DETERMINISTIC MODEL THAT IS RUN BASED ON SETS OF ASSUMPTIONS.
SO YOU COULD RUN DIFFERENT SETS TO GET RANGES, WHICH WHAT WE, WHAT WE DO, WHICH IS THE NEXT KIND OF GRAPHIC.
SO DIFFERENT SETS OF ASSUMPTIONS GIVE YOU DIFFERENT OUTPUTS.
UH, ASCEND IS RUNS A STOCHASTIC MODEL, AND SO IT USES, UM, SOME ERROR ERROR VARIABLES, IF YOU WILL, IN THEIR SIMULATIONS TO CREATE KIND OF A RANGE AROUND POSSIBILITIES THROUGH THE DIFFERENT SIMULATIONS.
SO YOU'RE SAYING THAT IF YOU RUN THE U PLAN MODEL WITH THE SAME ASSUMPTIONS 10 TIMES, YOU'RE GONNA GET THE EXACT SAME RESULTS? PRETTY MUCH, YES.
THAT'S HOW IT'S GONNA CALCULATE, BUT ASCEND IS GONNA, WE'RE GONNA GIVE ASCEND ONE LOAD FORECAST, FOR EXAMPLE, AND THEN THEY'RE GONNA RUN A HUNDRED DIFFERENT SIMULATIONS ON WEATHER AND GET A HUNDRED DIFFERENT LOAD FORECASTS WITH THE MEAN COMING BACK TO THE LOAD FORECAST THAT WE GAVE THEM.
SO A LITTLE BIT OF RANGE AROUND IT.
SO THIS, THESE BASICALLY SHOW US ALL THREE HAVE VERY SIMILAR COSTS.
17 MAY BE A LITTLE BIT LESS IN THE ASCEND MODEL, BUT THEY'RE PRETTY, PRETTY CLOSE, RIGHT? SIMILAR COST.
AND SO THIS IS, YOU PLAN WITH SOME OF THOSE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS, THE FOUR DIFFERENT SCENARIOS WE TALKED ABOUT EARLIER, WHICH WAS THAT EXTREME WEATHER CONDITIONS, THE HIGH LOW GROWTH, THE HIGH FUEL COST, WHICH THE HIGHER NATURAL GAS COST, AND THEN, UH, THOSE HIGH CONGESTION SCENARIOS.
AND SO THAT'S WHERE YOU CAN RUN DIFFERENT ASSUMPTIONS AND SEE DIFFERENT OUTCOMES.
AND SO THE WAY YOU MIGHT READ THIS IS THE WIDER, MAYBE THE BAR OR THE FATTER THAT BAR, THE MORE RISK THERE IS TO THAT PARTICULAR, UH, PORTFOLIO IN THAT SCENARIO.
SO FOR EXAMPLE, YOU COULD SEE THAT, UM, PORTFOLIO 16, UH, HAS A LOWER IMPACT UNDER AN EXTREME WEATHER EVENT THAN PORTFOLIO 15, FOR EXAMPLE.
UM, WHICH EXTREME WEATHER SCENARIO WAS THAT THE HOT AUGUST OR THE COLD? WE ARE USING ERCOT HAS, UH, THEY HAVE DIFFERENT, UH, SCENARIOS AND THEY HAVE AN EXTREME WEATHER SCENARIO, I BELIEVE THAT'S BOTH A WINTER AND A SUMMER SCENARIO.
SO THEY'RE, THERE'S ACTUALLY LIKE A STACKING OF TWO IN THAT ONE BAR, IS THAT WHAT YOU'RE SAYING? THE YES, THE HIGH WEATHER SCENARIO WOULD BE RUN IN THE U PLAN CASE, AND I BELIEVE IT HAS BOTH A WINTER AND A SUMMER SCENARIO IN THAT YEAR.
[01:00:09]
UH, THE NEXT GRAPH WE HAVE, UH, THE NET PRESENT VALUE ON A 20 YEAR ANNUAL COST BASIS WITH THE SENSITIVITY AROUND FOUR BATTERY COSTS.UH, AND THIS IS, THIS CAME OUT OF OUR DISCUSSIONS.
WE HAD IN THE OFFICE HOURS WITH THE NRA STUDY, WITH THE DECLINING COST CURVE FOR BATTERIES AND WANTING TO LOOK AT WHAT THE DIFFERENCE IMPACTS WOULD BE.
AND SO WE WERE ABLE TO, SO THE REVENUES WILL NOT CHANGE IN THE MODEL BASED ON THE BATTERY CAPITAL COST, BUT THE CAPITAL COST COULD CHANGE.
SO WE WERE ABLE TO RECALCULATE, UH, CAPITAL COST AND BRING IT BACK IN A PRESENT VALUE.
AND I THINK THAT THE MAIN TAKEAWAY HERE IS EVEN WITH THE DECLINING, UH, COST OF BATTERIES, THE IMPACT WAS NOT VERY LARGE.
IT WAS ABOUT 2% DIFFERENCE IN AVERAGE COST, UH, BETWEEN THE ASSUMPTIONS WE HAD IN JULY VERSUS THAT DECLINING COST CURVE FOR BATTERIES.
SORRY, BUT I GOT A, I HAD A QUESTION ON THE SLIDE BEFORE IT JUST THAT COULDN'T PUT IT TOGETHER IN TIME.
SO ARE THE, ARE, ARE ANY OF THE, UM, SO WE, WE SEE LIKE ALL THE, SO LIKE FOR 16 YOU'VE GOT THE NORMAL CONDITIONS AND THEN LIKE ALL THE OTHERS ARE LIKE THE, BASICALLY THE, THE WORST CASE SCENARIO FOR EACH OF THE INDIVIDUAL PIECES.
SO THAT'S LIKE HOW IF EVERYTHING HAPPENED AT ONCE, THAT'S WHERE WE'D BE, BUT YEAH, IF ALL FOUR THINGS MATERIALIZED IN THE SAME YEAR, YES.
UM, BUT IF ANY ONE OF THEM DID, THEN IT WOULD JUST BE NORMAL PLUS THE, THAT OTHER BAR STACKED ON IT.
IS THERE ANY, SO THERE'S NO IMPLIED CORRELATION, BUT LIKE IF, IF WE GET NO, THE EXTREME WEATHER SCENARIO, WE ALSO GET HIGH CONGESTION SCENARIO, IS THERE ANY IMPLIED CORRELATION THERE? NO, THERE'S NO CORRELATION.
THERE'S, IT'S, IT'S BASICALLY FIVE SEPARATE RUNS, IF YOU WOULD, WITH DIFFERENT SETS OF ASSUMPTIONS.
ANY QUESTIONS ONLINE? YEAH, I, I HAVE A QUESTION ON THIS ONE.
SO MICHAEL, UH, THIS IS ONE THING THAT JUST QUALITATIVELY DOESN'T QUITE MAKE SENSE TO ME.
JONATHAN, CAN YOU GET CLOSER TO THE MICROPHONE PLEASE? HEY, CAN YOU HEAR ME? YEAH, BETTER.
YEAH, SO THIS IS ONE THAT QUALITATIVELY JUST DOESN'T QUITE MAKE SENSE TO ME BECAUSE THE, THE PREVIOUS ASSUMPTIONS, YOU KNOW, WE WERE USING PRESENT COSTS AND ESCALATING IT, SO A BATTERY COST GOING UP.
AND NOW WITH NREL WE'RE USING BATTERY COSTS THAT ARE DECLINING, I GUESS, YOU KNOW, QUALITATIVELY IF THE BATTERY COST DOESN'T REALLY MATTER AND LIKE WE'RE BUILDING A LOT OF BATTERY OF STORAGE IN THESE MODEL RUNS.
LIKE, SO WHAT IS IT THAT'S THE, YOU KNOW, WHY DOES IT NOT MAKE A BIGGER DIFFERENCE? AND WHAT IS THE LEVER THEN THAT, THAT REALLY DOES MAKE A DIFFERENCE.
I THINK YOUR, SO YOUR MARKET REVENUES ARE, ARE NOT CHANGING.
UM, SO IF THE COST OF THE BATTERY GOES DOWN BY MILLIONS OF DOLLARS, YOU'LL HAVE MILLIONS OF DOLLARS LESS IN NET COST.
UM, BUT, UM, BUT WHAT WE'RE SEEING IN A LOT OF OUR MODELING IS, AND WHAT WE'RE SEEING IN 2024 ACTUALLY, IS A LOT OF TIMES THE REVENUES THAT BATTERIES ARE ABLE TO EARN IN THE MARKET ARE NOT RECOVERING THEIR FULL CAPITAL COST ACOS.
AND I BELIEVE, ADAM, DID YOU DO THE MODELING ON THIS? IF I WANNA PHONE A FRIEND TO GET MORE INTO THE, UH, ME AND MICHAEL.
UM, I'M ADAM MCINROY, THE DIRECTOR FOR RISK MANAGEMENT AND MARKET SETTLEMENTS AT AUSTIN ENERGY.
UM, WE DID TAKE A LOOK AT THIS THROUGH A FEW LENSES.
I THINK THE KEY DRIVERS IN MY MIND, UH, COMMISSIONER BLACKBURN, ARE, UM, THAT THE BATTERIES ARE PHASED IN OVER TIME.
AND SO THE COST CURVE, UH, SORT OF, IT GETS TO BE A TIME AVERAGE OF THOSE CHANGES.
SO IF YOU LOOK AT SORT OF A FLAT OR GROWING AT 2%, UM, CURVE, AND THEN THE NRA CURVE, WHICH KIND OF COMES DOWN AT SAY 7%.
UM, YOU KNOW, IF YOU, IF YOU, UM, INVESTED IN BATTERIES THIS YEAR, YOU WOULD SEE NO CHANGE.
IF YOU INVESTED IN 10 YEARS, YOU WOULD SEE A, A MODERATE CHANGE.
BUT ALL OF THE CHANGES AND INVESTMENTS IN THE MODELS ARE HAPPENING IN THE FIRST 10 YEARS.
AND SO IT'S SORT OF, UM, THAT'S ONE OF THE BIG DILUTIONS HERE, UM, IS WHAT WE FOUND AND, AND THE MAIN DRIVER.
A DETAILED, UM, I GUESS SPREADSHEET LIKE WE DID BEFORE THAT SHOWS WHEN THE DIFFERENT RESOURCES ARE ADDED.
HOW MUCH? I THINK IT'S IN APPENDIX.
YEAH, I BELIEVE THAT'S IN THE APPENDIX.
WELL, WE'LL HAVE THAT IN THE APPENDIX.
YEAH, WE CAN DEFINITELY GET THAT FOR YOU.
[01:05:01]
ALL RIGHT.NEXT WE WERE GONNA TALK ABOUT BILL IMPACT.
UH, WE WENT OVER THIS LAST TIME AS WELL, AND THAT'S LOOKING AT THE, THE AVERAGE MONTHLY BILL IN 2035.
OR ACTUALLY WE HAVE IT GOING OUT THROUGH EACH YEAR, SO WE COULD SEE AS WHERE THAT AVERAGE MONTHLY BILL WOULD LOOK UNDER THE VARIOUS PORTFOLIOS.
UH, AND THEN YOU CAN SEE THAT DOTTED BLACK LINE THERE IS THAT 2% AFFORDABILITY.
I BELIEVE IT WAS PASSED AWAY BACK IN 2014.
NOW, I BELIEVE, UM, THAT 2% AFFORDABILITY LINE, UH, PER COUNCIL, AND YOU CAN KIND OF SEE HOW EACH ONE OF THESE PERFORMS OVER TIME.
SO, SO COULD, IF YOU COULD DISCUSS THAT F FOR A MINUTE.
AS OPPOSED TO ALL THREE BA ALL THREE CONVERGE.
REGARDLESS, REGARDLESS, YEAH, THERE'S A RANGE OF ABOUT $10 THERE BETWEEN A DIFFERENT PORTFOLIO, A RELATIVELY SMALL RANGE.
I CAN'T REMEMBER WHAT THE REFERENCE IS.
IS THAT JUST BUSINESS AS USUAL? THAT IS, YES.
THAT IS UNDER OUR CURRENT RESOURCE PLAN.
IF WE WERE TO MEET THE 65% RENEWABLE, UH, AND SHUT DOWN, UH, OUR GAS ASSETS AT THE END OF 2034.
SO THAT'S A REFERENCE OF CURRENT RESOURCE PLAN, NO CHANGES.
ON JUST THE AFFORDABILITY ASPECT.
UM, JUST IN TERMS OF COMMUNICATION, I THINK, YOU KNOW, SORT OF IN LINE WITH THAT QUESTION, A SUGGESTION THAT IT, IT MIGHT BE HELPFUL TO LIKE PUT THE, WHERE, WHAT PERCENTAGE INCREASE THEY LAND ON AT THE END.
KIND OF DO THE FUZZY MATH IN OUR HEAD, BUT IT JUST IN TERMS OF COMMUNICATING AS WE MOVE FORWARD, IT MIGHT BE HELPFUL.
A PERCENTAGE INCREASE FROM THE AFFORDABILITY GOAL OR FROM TODAY, I GUESS IF THAT'S A 2% LINE, YOU KNOW, PUTTING, PUTTING ANOTHER LINE OR I, YOU KNOW, I DON'T KNOW HOW YOU WANNA DO IT.
YOU COULD HAVE THE OTHER SIDE OF THE UM, GOTCHA.
BUT YOU'RE LOOKING FOR IN TERMS OF PERCENTAGES, NOT TERMS OF DOLLARS TO MAYBE FOR COLOR? WELL, YOU COULD HAVE BOTH.
SO YOU COULD, IT JUST MIGHT HELP WITH A COMMUNICATION.
YEAH, WE COULD DEFINITELY LOOK AT MODELING IT OR DISPLAYING IT THAT WAY AS WELL.
EE EVEN INFORMATION ON THE BOTTOM, ON THE BOTTOM WHERE YOU HAVE DISCLAIMER, BUT HAVING THE PERCENTAGE AND DOLLARS WOULD BE VERY HELPFUL.
WE CAN CERTAINLY CALCULATE THE PERCENTAGES, BUT THE REASON THOSE SPIKE UP STARTING IN 2034 IS IN SOME OF THE CASES RETIRING DECKER AND SANDHILL, UH, IN SOME OF THE CASES THAT WOULD BE PART OF IT, YES.
BUT I THINK YOU'LL SEE MORE ALONG THE RELIABILITY OF RISK HOURS WITH THE RETIREMENT OF DECKER AND SANDHILL THAN NECESSARILY AN AFFORDABILITY.
BUT WELL MAYBE JUST CLARIFY PLEASE.
SO WHAT'S THE DRIVING FORCE GOING FROM 2034 THAT MAKES ALL OF THEM SPIKE UP? WELL, SO THE REFERENCE CASE, YOU'LL SEE SPIKE UP AND YOU'LL SEE PORTFOLIO 15 REALLY KIND OF TAKE A TURN.
AND THAT'S RETIREMENT OF SANDHILL AND DECKER.
YOU'LL SEE THE OTHER ONES ARE MORE OF A STRAIGHT LINE AND DON'T NECESSARILY HAVE THE SAME BEND.
SO, SO THE SCENARIO THAT THAT KEEPS SAN SAN, THE EXISTING SANDHILL, UH, DOES, DOES AWAY WITH FAYETTE AND RIGHT.
ALL THESE SCENARIOS, THE EXISTING GAS RESOURCES AVAILABLE, UH, CORRECT.
IS IS WHAT'S DRIVING UP THE LARGEST PERCENTAGE OF THE THREE SCENARIOS.
I THINK THAT'S A, THAT'S A, A GOOD PORTION OF IT.
WE CAN, WE CAN TRY TO DO A BREAKDOWN TO LOOK AT ALL THE DIFFERENT DRIVERS, BUT YES, I THINK WHEN YOU SEE SOME OF 'EM HAVE MORE OF A BEND UP AND SOME OF 'EM A LITTLE BIT MORE OF A, A SMOOTHER SLOPE, IF YOU WILL.
AND I THINK THAT'S THE RETIREMENT AND THE LOSS OF REVENUE FOR THOSE ASSETS.
IS, IS IT JUST AN ILLUSION THAT 16 LOOKS LIKE IT ALSO BECAUSE 16 KEEPS DECKER AND SANDHILL RUNNING THROUGH 35? IS IT MAYBE I IT DOES BEND.
IT DOESN'T BEND AS MUCH, BUT IT DOESN'T BEND AS MUCH.
SO WE, WE CAN DIG INTO THAT AND, AND, AND WE, THAT'S CERTAINLY SOMETHING FOR US AS DISCUSSED DURING OFFICE HOURS AND UNDERSTAND KIND OF THE BEND IN, IN VARIOUS YEARS AND WHAT'S CREATING THAT 'CAUSE THAT COULD LEAD TO SOME ADDITIONAL INSIGHTS ON HOW WE COULD MOVE THINGS AROUND A LITTLE BIT TO GET A SMOOTHER SLOPE.
BUT THAT SPREADSHEET THAT SHOWS US WHEN DIFFERENT THINGS
[01:10:01]
ARE ADDING, WELL, I'M GUESSING, EXPLAIN THAT.COMMISSIONER STUART RILEY, DEPUTY GENERAL MANAGER OF BUSINESS SERVICES, ONE THING I JUST WANTED TO POINT OUT, AS A REMINDER, ANYTIME YOU'RE LOOKING AT THIS, IT'S LOOKING AT THE ALL IN BILL INCREASE, BUT IT DOES NOT ASSUME ANY BASE RATE INCREASES.
SO THIS IS LOOKING AT INCREASES ONLY THAT WOULD BE ATTRIBUTABLE ON THE PSA SIDE OR FOR BUILDING OUT THOSE ASSETS, BUT IT'S NOT ASSUMING THERE'S ANY RESILIENCY, UPGRADES, WAGE INCREASES FOR EMPLOYEES, THOSE KINDS OF THINGS THAT HAVE BEEN OUR TYPICAL BASE RATE INCREASES.
SO IT SUBSUME WOULD SUBSUME THAT WHOLE 2% AND THEN SOME, BUT THAT'S WITHOUT BAKING IN ANY OF THOSE OTHER BASE RATE TYPE COMPONENTS.
I JUST WANTED TO MAKE SURE WE WERE ALL CLEAR ON THAT.
THE THREE SCENARIOS, THE THREE EUC SCENARIOS ALSO ALL SPIKE IN 2030.
THEY ALL HAVE THE SAME SLOPE UP TO 2030 AND A, A RATHER LARGE INCREASE WITHIN A COUPLE YEARS, DO WE NOT 17.
SO YEAH, THAT'S WHERE I THINK THAT THAT SPREADSHEET THAT
AND YOU'RE SEEING SOME OF THAT NET COST THAT YOU'RE NOT MAYBE FULLY CAPTURING THE NET REVENUE TO OFFSET.
UM, BUT WE COULD DEFINITELY DIG INTO THAT AND LOOK AT WHY, WHY WE'RE SEEING DIFFERENT CHANGES AT DIFFERENT TIME PERIODS.
I JUST WANNA STAND CORRECTLY, THE BAR CHARTS THAT SHOW THE CAPACITY BY HERE ARE IN DEPENDENCIES RIGHT NOW.
SO THEY'RE IN DEPENDENCIES RIGHT NOW, BUT THAT'S PROBABLY A BETTER DISCUSSION FOR OFFICE HOURS TO DIG IN ON THE NITTY GRITTY ON EACH ONE OF THESE SCENARIOS.
THEY CAN'T HEAR ME, SO CAN YOU REPEAT, UH, LISA SAID THAT THE APP DEPENDENCIES THAT SHOW THE BAR CHARTS ON WHEN RESOURCES ARE ADDED FOR EACH PORTFOLIO OR IN THE APPENDICES TODAY.
SO THE, THE BUMP THAT HITS OF 2028 IS, IS THAT INTENDED TO GUESSTIMATE, GUESSTIMATE THE, UH, LOSS OF REVENUE FROM FAYETTE CLOSER? WELL, SO I BELIEVE IN THESE SCENARIOS.
WE RETIRED FAYETTE AT THE END, END OF 2024.
AND SO FAYETTE IS NOT, NOT IN THESE SCENARIOS, NOT INVOLVED HERE.
AND AND THE COST OF CLEANUP OF FAYETTE WOULD NOT BE REFLECTED IN HERE.
THOSE ARE NOT REFLECTED IN ANY OF THESE NUMBERS? NO.
ISN'T THERE A FUND THAT'S BEEN ACCUMULATING OVER THE YEARS? THERE IS, YES.
UH, AND THAT FUND FOR NON-NUCLEAR, IS IT SUFFICIENT? I THINK WE BELIEVE THAT IT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT.
I THINK UNTIL YOU GO TO ACTUALLY DO IT, YOU WON'T KNOW THE, THE TRUE COST.
BUT, BUT THE, THE IDEA IS TO PLAN TO HAVE THE FUNDS IN THAT, IN ORDER TO FUND THAT WHEN WE DO RETIRE THE UNIT, YES.
BUT AS YOU'RE PROBABLY WELL AWARE WITH INFLATION, EVERYTHING ELSE COST FOR DIFFERENT THINGS CAN CHANGE AND THEY CAN CHANGE SUDDENLY OR THEY CAN BE, AS WE ASSUME.
WE'VE CERTAINLY SEEN THAT WITH THE TRANSIT PLANS.
UM, WE ALSO WANTED TO GO OVER ELECTRICITY BURDEN, HOW THAT IMPACTS SOME OF OUR LMI CUSTOMERS OR LOW TO MODERATE INCOME.
UH, WE WENT OVER THIS, UH, DEFINITION AS WELL, SO I WON'T LINGER ON IT, BUT IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS, I'M HAPPY TO ANSWER THOSE.
AND THEN AS WE LOOK AT ELECTRICITY BURDEN, SO THE 2023 CURRENT, UH, CAP CALCULATION WOULD BE THAT DOTTED ORANGE LINE RIGHT THERE.
UH, THE BLUE BAR WOULD BE WHERE WE WOULD SEE IT GOING IN 2035 BASED ON THE DIFFERENT PORTFOLIOS.
AND THEN THAT TOP DOTTED LINE IS, UH, THE TEXAS AVERAGE FOR 2023.
SO YOU CAN SEE WHILE THESE PORTFOLIOS ARE A LITTLE BIT ABOVE THE CURRENT CAP AVERAGE, UH, THEY STILL FALL BELOW, UM, THE, UM, TEXAS AVERAGE.
I, I'M, I'M CONFUSED BY THAT DATA, UH, BECAUSE TEXAS HAS NOT HAD A DISCOUNT PROGRAM FOR YEARS.
SO LOOKING, COMPARING WHAT RETAIL ELECTRIC PROVIDERS AND I, I, I ASSUME THERE'S SOME MINIS IN HERE IN CO-OPS, UH, BUT ALL OF WHICH IS IN THE GENERAL ERCOT MARKET WITHOUT THE SYSTEM BENEFIT FUND BEING AVAILABLE, UH, YEAH, I THINK IT'S LIKE THE LINE AT THE TOP SEEMS IRRELEVANT.
WELL, I THINK IT'S MORE OF A, OF A CALCULATION ON THE STATE OF TEXAS AS A WHOLE, WHAT IS THAT ELECTRIC, UH, BUR ELECTRICITY BURDEN FOR THAT, THAT LEVEL OF, OF INCOME THAT WE'RE LOOKING AT VERSUS WHAT IS THAT
[01:15:01]
ELECTRICITY BURDEN VERSUS THE LEVEL OF INCOME OF OUR CAP CUSTOMERS AND HOW THAT CHANGES OVER TIME.UM, YOU DO KNOW THAT WE ALSO HAVE SOME OF THE LOWER BILLS IN TEXAS AS WELL.
UM, AND SO THAT THAT CERTAINLY HELPS.
YEAH, I I'M JUST SAYING IT'S KIND OF APPLES TO ORANGES WHEN YOU COMPARE WHERE WE ARE FORTUNATELY IN THE CITY OF AUSTIN VERSUS IN COMPETITIVE OR COMMERCIAL AREAS.
WE CERTAINLY TRY TO DO BETTER.
SO YOU'RE NOT SAYING THAT, THAT THAT UPPER LINE IS A UNIVERSE OF CUSTOMERS THAT ARE GETTING DISCOUNTS, YOU'RE JUST SAYING IT'S A UNIVERSE OF CUSTOMERS THAT FALL INTO THAT INCOME RANGE AND THAT'S RIGHT.
IF YOU LOOKED AT THE, THE AVERAGE BILL AMOUNT OR COST VERSUS THAT INCOME RANGE, WHAT IS THAT PERCENTAGE VERSUS WHAT IS IT HERE IN AUSTIN, JUST FOR A RELATIVE COMPARISON? OKAY.
AND NEXT WE MOVE ON TO LIQUIDITY RISK.
WE'VE TALKED ABOUT THE DEFINITION FOR AS WELL.
THAT'S HOW WELL WE'RE ABLE TO HAVE, UH, LIQUID ASSETS AVAILABLE AND TO PAY OUR BILLS IN THE EVENT OF, OF SOME TYPE OF MARKET EVENT OR A WEATHER EVENT.
AND SO WE, WE HEARD, UH, FEEDBACK LAST TIME TO SHOW NOT JUST THE YURI EVENT, UH, SHOW A WINTER EVENT PLUS A SUMMER EVENT AND ALSO LOOK AT IT WITH THE NEW, UH, EPP, THE OR EMERGENCY PRICING PROGRAM.
I BELIEVE I REMEMBER THOSE TERMS CORRECTLY.
UH, WHEREAS UH, AFTER ERIE, THERE WERE SOME CHANGES MADE IN ORDER TO PROTECT A LITTLE BIT BETTER.
UM, AND, AND PROBABLY TRY TO LIMIT THE NUMBER OF BANKRUPTCIES IN AN EVENT LIKE THAT.
UM, SO WHAT YOU'LL SEE HERE IS THE BLACK LINE IS THE YURI BACKCAST, UM, WITH THAT HIGH, UM, OFFER PRICE NOT GOING DOWN AFTER AN EMERGENCY EVENT.
UH, THE YELLOW LINE IS THE YURI BACKCAST WITH THE EPP, WHICH IS BASICALLY AFTER 12 HOURS OF AN EMERGENCY IN A ROW, THEN THE CAP DROPS FROM $5,000 TO $2,000.
SO WE'RE ON BOTH SIDES OF THAT.
WE'RE BOTH GENERATION AND LOAD.
SO YOU GET LESS FOR YOUR GENERATORS, BUT YOU PAY LESS FOR YOUR LOAD.
AND THEN THE ORANGE BAR, THERE IS A 2023 SUMMER BACK HOUSE WHERE WE SAW SOME FAIRLY, UH, EXTREME WEATHER IN THE SUMMERTIME PERIOD WHERE IT HAD VERY, VERY HOT LOADS AT THE END OF AUGUST AND INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER.
ALSO WITH VERY, VERY LOW WIND IN THE STATE.
UH, WHICH LED TO I THINK 13 DIFFERENT, UM, CALLS FOR CONSERVATION.
SO YOU CAN SEE THAT, UM, CERTAINLY PORTFOLIO 16 AND 17 HAVE DONE QUITE A BIT TO REDUCE LIQUIDITY RISK WITH THOSE NEW PORTFOLIOS.
AND HERE'S JUST ANOTHER VIEW OF THE REFERENCE PORTFOLIOS VERSUS ALL 21 PORTFOLIOS THAT WE'VE RUN, UH, WITH 14 PULLED OUT.
'CAUSE WE'RE STILL WORKING ON RUNNING THAT.
SO YOU CAN ALSO SEE KIND OF THE, THE RELATIVE LIQUIDITY RISK OF SOME OF THE NEW PORTFOLIOS VERSUS, UM, SOME OF THE EARLY PORTFOLIOS THAT WERE RUN AND SEE SOME OF THOSE IMPROVEMENTS AS WELL.
AND THEN WE'LL MOVE ON TO RELIABILITY COMPARISONS.
SO HERE'S WHERE WE HAVE RELIABILITY RISK HOURS.
UH, WE WENT OVER THAT LAST TIME AS WELL, BUT HAPPY TO ANSWER ANY QUESTIONS THERE.
BUT WE'RE REALLY LOOKING AT THOSE HOURS WHEN WE'RE AT RISK TO HAVING AN EVENT THAT COULD CAUSE SOME TYPE OF LOCALIZED LOAD HEAD.
WHEN WE LOOK AT RELIABILITY RISK HOURS IN THE ASCEND MODEL FOR 15, 16, AND 17, HERE YOU HAVE, UH, THE MEANS RIGHT THERE IN THE MIDDLE WITH THE P 95 AND THEN THE P FIVE, SO THE P 95 AT THE TOP AND THE P FIVE BELOW.
UM, AND SO YOU CAN KIND OF SEE THE REAL BIG DIFFERENCE THAT THAT ADDITIONAL IMPORT CAPACITY IN 2031 MAKES.
BUT YOU CAN SEE THAT ALL PORTFOLIOS SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE THOSE RELIABILITY RISK HOURS AS WE GET OUT TILL 2035 AND LOOKING AT THOSE SAME METRIC.
BUT WITH THE U PLAN MODEL, NOT AN ASCEND.
UH, YOU CAN SEE AT THE TOP, UNDER NORMAL SCENARIOS, UH, WE SEE THAT ALL THE PORTFOLIOS OR 16 AND 17 HAVE VERY, VERY LOW RELIABILITY RISK HOURS AND DRIVE THAT DOWN TO ZERO AS WE GET TOWARDS 2035 PORTFOLIO 15 WHERE WE RETIRE THE SAN TILL UNITS AND THE DECKER UNIT AT THE END OF 2034.
YOU CAN SEE THAT KIND OF SPIKES UP AND YOU HAVE QUITE A BIT MORE RELIABILITY RISK HOURS, KINDA REALLY INDICATING THE KIND OF THE BALANCE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND.
UH, AND THEN WHAT'S MORE INTERESTING IS YOU LOOK DOWN UNDER A HIGH LOW GROWTH SCENARIO, SO MORE OF THE WEBER ENERGY GROUP LOAD GROWTH FOR THE AUSTIN AREA.
YOU CAN SEE THAT THE PORTFOLIOS DON'T QUITE PERFORM QUITE AS WELL, UH, WHICH MAKES SENSE.
'CAUSE YOU'RE, WE'RE WE'RE TRYING TO BALANCE SUPPLY WITH DEMAND AND IF YOUR DEMAND INCREASES, UH, AND WE HAVE THE SAME AMOUNT OF OF SUPPLY WE HAD IN THE LOWER DEMAND ENVIRONMENT, YOU MAY NOT HAVE QUITE THAT SAME RELIABILITY PROTECTION YOU HAVE
[01:20:01]
ON THE, ON THE, ON THE 200, ON THE EXTRA 250 MEGAWATTS OF LIKE IMPORT CAPACITY.THAT WOULD UM, PRESUMABLY THAT WOULD BE SOMETHING THAT LIKE WOULD BE ALL LIKE, THAT'D BE ALLOCATED TO ALL LOAD, NOT JUST AUSTIN ENERGY, RIGHT? LIKE IT'D BE IN THE GENERAL TRANSMISSION.
THE THE TRANSMISSION PORTION YEAH.
WOULD BE, COULD BE ALLOCATED TO, TO EVERYBODY, UH, AND REVERSED OVER TIME.
UH, DISTRIBUTION LINES MAY NOT BE THE SAME.
SO IT WOULD DEPEND ON ULTIMATELY AS WE STUDY THE SYSTEM, HOW WE GOT THE IMPORT CAPACITY WHERE AND HOW IT WAS BUILT, UH, WHO WOULD FUND THE TOTAL AMOUNT.
YEAH, NO, BUT UM, SURE NOT, YEAH, I KNOW THE DISTRIBUTION WOULD, BUT LIKE IF WE, IF WE WERE ABLE TO GET LIKE MORE TRANSMISSION CAPACITY AND LIKE THAT, THAT THAT WOULD BE IN LIKE THE GENERAL, THAT WOULD BE AT THE, WOULD IT BE UNDERSTANDING THAT THAT WOULD BE LIKE IN THE GENERAL LIKE TRANSMISSION, UM, COST POOL THAT LIKE THE ENTIRE I THINK OLIVER ERCOT WOULD PAY? I THINK A GOOD PORTION WOULD BE, I THINK THERE WOULD ALSO BE STUFF THAT WOULD NEED TO BE DONE ON THE DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM AS WELL.
BUT NOT, AND SO UNTIL WE REALLY GOT INTO THE EXACT PROJECTS AND WHAT NEEDED TO HAPPEN TO GET THAT IMPORT CAPACITY, IT WOULD BE TOUGH TO GIVE YOU AN EXACT NUMBER.
I THINK WE HAVE PUT A NUMBER IN THE MODEL OF ABOUT 115 TO $120 MILLION I BELIEVE FOR THE UPGRADES TO MAKE THAT HAPPEN.
UM, BUT, BUT YOU'LL HAVE TO PUT THE CASH UP, UP FRONT AND THEN RECOVER EVEN TRANSMISSION COSTS.
UM, BUT THERE COULD BE SOME BOTTLENECKS THAT ARE HAPPENING ON THE DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM THAT ARE FEEDING BACK UP TO THE TRANSMISSION LINES AS WELL THAT WOULD NEED BE, NEED TO BE ADJUSTED TO INCREASE THAT IMPORT CAPACITY.
SO CAN YOU GO BACK ONE PLEASE? UH, SURE.
SO WHAT STRIKES ME HERE IS THAT NOT ONLY DOES THAT JUST EVEN MILD 10% INCREASE, MAKE A HUGE DIFFERENCE IN TERMS OF RELIABILITY RISK HOURS.
WHAT JOSH WAS GETTING TO IS THAT WE GET A 96.5% DISCOUNT ON THAT BECAUSE THE COSTS ARE SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF ERCOT CUSTOMERS.
SO IT'S LIKE AUSTIN ENERGY CUSTOMERS FOR YEARS HAVE BEEN PAYING FOR MM-HMM.
WE'LL BE PAYING FOR WEST TEXAS TRANSMISSION TO GO HOOK UP MORE OIL AND GAS.
IT'S ESPECIALLY ATTRACTIVE TO GO GET AS MUCH AS YOU CAN PUSH.
IT ALSO NEEDS, WE ALSO NEED TO GET IT APPROVED THROUGH THE ERCOT SYSTEMS 'CAUSE EVERYBODY PAYS FOR IT.
IT'S HARD AS YOU JUST MENTIONED.
AND SO THERE'S A PROCESS TO DO THERE.
BUT YES, TRANSMISSION IS, IT'S VALUABLE.
TRANSMISSION IS RECOVERED BY ALL THE LOAD IN TEXAS AND NOT JUST AN INDIVIDUAL CITY AND RIGHT.
SO HERE WE HAVE THE MODEL OF EMISSIONS, UH, THE ENERGY STACK, CO2 EMISSIONS BY YEAR VERSUS, UH, SO IF HISTORICAL IS THE DOTTED LINE AND THEN THE, THE LINES THERE THAT ARE, I SOLID SHOW HOW IT PROGRESSES OVER TIME.
SO YOU CAN SEE THEY ALL KIND OF GET DOWN THERE WITH THAT.
AND JUST TO BE CLEAR, THIS IS IF WE MAGICALLY CAN WISH THEY HAD A WAY IN 2025.
SO IT'S NOT YES, WE'RE MAKING THAT ASSUMPTION.
THAT'S THE ASSUMPTION FROM THE MODELING.
SO WE CAN UNDERSTAND THAT THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THESE PORTFOLIOS WITHOUT FAYETTE, BUT IN REALITY YOU HAVE TO, UH, OFFER THE NOTICE OF SUSPENDED OPERATIONS TO ERCOT 150 DAYS IN ADVANCE OF THE DATE YOU'RE GONNA SHUT DOWN.
AND THEN WE ALSO, THAT WAS JUST A LINE OF THE MODEL OF EMISSIONS OVER TIME HERE WOULD BE, UM, STACK EMISSIONS OVER THE 11 YEAR TIME PERIOD THAT WE STUDIED.
SO WE CAN SEE THE TOTAL AS WELL.
'CAUSE IT'S NOT JUST AT A GIVEN YEAR, BUT WHAT THE, UH, OVERALL AMOUNT IS.
AND SO YOU CAN SEE PORTFOLIO OF 15, 16 AND 17, UH, FOR CO2 EMISSIONS HERE ON THE LEFT.
AND THEN ON THE RIGHT IS YOUR TOTAL NO EMISSIONS OVER THAT 11 YEAR TIME HORIZON AS WELL.
I THINK THE BIG DIFFERENCES THERE BETWEEN 15, 16 AND 17 ARE HAVING THE ADDITIONAL ASSETS RUNNING IN THAT 2035 TIME PERIOD.
AND THEN KIND OF JUST LOOKING AT A COMPARISON, OOPS, SORRY.
SO LOOKING AT A COMPARISON OF P 12, SO KIND OF THE INITIAL PORTFOLIO AND THEN THE VARIATIONS 15, 16, AND 17.
WHEN WE LOOK OVER THAT 11 YEAR TIME HORIZON, UH, YOU CAN SEE THAT WE WERE ABLE TO REALLY, OR THESE, SORRY, NOT WE, THESE PORTFOLIOS WERE ABLE TO REALLY REDUCE THOSE TOTAL RELIABILITY RISK HOURS, UH, ESPECIALLY 16 AND 17, REALLY BRINGING THOSE DOWN.
UH, WE WERE ABLE TO DO THAT AT A RELATIVELY SIMILAR COST TO POTENTIALLY A LOWER COST.
UH, AND YOU'RE SEEING A SLIGHT UPTAKE OF, OF YOUR EMISSIONS THERE AS WELL FOR 16 AND 17 FOR THOSE ADDITIONAL RELIABILITY HOURS.
[01:25:07]
AND SO THEN KIND OF KEY INSIGHTS FROM MODELING TO DATE AND THEN TO TALK ABOUT NEXT STEPS.SO ONCE AGAIN, WE'RE, WE'RE TRANSITIONING TO PLAN DEVELOPMENT.
UH, I KNOW WE STILL HAVE A FEW MODELING RESULTS TO GET TO YOU ALL AND WE HAVE OFFICE HOURS TO DISCUSS AND WALK THROUGH AND TALK ABOUT THOSE MODELING RESULTS.
BUT AS WE GET MORE AND MORE COMFORTABLE WITH THE RESOURCE MODELING RESULTS, UH, AND WHAT WE LEARNED FROM THAT, THE INSIGHTS, THE, THE TRADEOFFS, UM, AND DIFFERENT PORTFOLIO MIXES, THEN WE'LL BE MOVING INTO THAT RESOURCE PLANNING.
WE'LL BE LOOKING AT WHAT CHARACTERISTICS THAT THAT REALLY WORKED.
WHAT DO WE REALLY NEED IN THIS PORTFOLIO IN ORDER TO BUILD A PORTFOLIO THAT MEETS OUR COMMUNITY'S, UH, VALUES AND NEEDS.
SO SOME KEY INSIGHTS FROM MODELING RESULTS FROM THE AUSTIN ENERGY TEAM IS, AS I THINK I MENTIONED EARLIER, THE ADDITIONAL 250 MEGAWATTS OF IMPORT CAPACITY, UH, BEYOND THE KNOWN TRANSMISSION UPGRADES THAT WE'RE ALREADY DOING SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCES RELIABILITY RISKS AND NET COSTS.
UH, WHEN YOU'RE ERCOT IS AN ENERGY ONLY MARKET THAT GIVES YOU PRICE SIGNALS.
SO HIGHER COSTS IN AN AREA OR HIGHER LMPS IN AN AREA IS A PRICE SIGNAL INDICATION OF A LOOMING RELIABILITY ISSUE.
SO THOSE KIND OF GO HAND IN HAND.
UM, SO CERTAINLY IF YOU CAN REDUCE RELIABILITY RISKS, YOU'RE GONNA BE ABLE TO REDUCE NET COST AS WELL.
UH, WE ALSO SAW THAT THE LOSS OF GENERATION FROM DECKER AND SANDHILL, UH, CAN SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE THOSE RELIABILITY RISKS.
ONCE AGAIN, THAT IS JUST, UH, SUPPLY DEMAND BALANCING.
SO IF YOU'RE GOING TO REDUCE, UH, 800 MEGAWATTS OF LOCAL GENERATION, YOU WILL HAVE CERTAIN HOURS WHERE YOU HAVE TO IMPORT QUITE A BIT MORE POWER, WHICH CAN LEAD TO MORE RELIABILITY RISK HOURS.
UH, WE SAW HIGH LEVELS OF NEW ENERGY EFFICIENCY, DEMAND RESPONSE, LOCAL SOLAR AND STORAGE PLUS EXISTING GENERATION REALLY MANAGE RELIABILITY AS WELL AS LIQUIDITY RISKS.
UM, IT MAY BE AT A HIGH COST VERSUS SOME ALTERNATIVES.
UH, AND THEN THE OTHER CONCERN THERE IS MAYBE THE PACE OF ADOPTION EXCEEDS THE ESTIMATED FEASIBILITY FROM THE DMV STUDY THAT WE RECENTLY HAD RUN.
AND THEN, UH, THE LAST TAKEAWAY THERE, AS YOU SAW FROM EARLIER, UH, VERSUS OUR LOAD SCENARIO VERSUS THE WEBER ENERGY GROUP, WHICH IS A HIGHER LOAD SCENARIO, IS THAT THE MODEL RESULTS ARE VERY SENSITIVE TO HIGH LOAD GROWTH.
UH, AND THAT PLAYS BACK INTO THOSE RELIABILITY AND THAT AFFORDABILITY.
IF YOU'RE IMPORTING MORE AND MORE AND YOU'RE GETTING HIGHER PRICES IN YOUR LOAD ZONE, THAT'S GONNA IMPACT YOUR AFFORDABILITY.
AND IF YOU'RE IMPORTING MORE AND MORE POWER, THAT'S GONNA IMPACT YOUR RELIABILITY AS WELL.
CAN, CAN I JUST MAKE A COMMENT THERE? CERTAINLY THE, THE NOTE THERE ABOUT THE PACE OF ADOPTION, I, YOU KNOW, I JUST WANNA RE REMIND FOLKS THAT THE DNV STUDY DID NOT LOOK AT THE STANDARD OFFER AT ALL, RIGHT? BECAUSE IT WAS NOT COMPLETED.
I DO THINK THEY LOOKED AT LOCAL SOLAR CAPACITY, UH, FEASIBILITY.
I DON'T THINK THEY LOOKED AT THE STANDARD OFFER IN PARTICULAR AND HOW THAT MIGHT ACCELERATE IT.
UH, BUT WE CAN CERTAINLY DISCUSS THAT IN OFFICE HOURS AS WELL.
WHAT WE WERE PREVIOUSLY TOLD WAS THAT THEY EVALUATED THE POTENTIAL OF THE CURRENT PROGRAMS PLUS, UH, SOLAR FOR ALL TO DELIVER.
IT WASN'T BASED ON AVAILABLE ROOF SPACE OR EVEN FEEDER CAPACITY.
IT WAS BASED ON THOSE PROGRAMS BEING ABLE TO DELIVER.
AND THAT PROGRAM, THE STANDARD OFFER WASN'T, YOU KNOW, WASN'T DONE SO THEY DIDN'T INCLUDE IT.
SO I JUST, YOU KNOW, I THINK THAT'S A NOTABLE ASTERISK THERE.
UH, ANY OTHER QUESTIONS OR THOUGHTS HERE? UM, ONE, UM, ONE SLIDE THAT WAS USEFUL IN THE PREVIOUS DECK THAT WE DON'T HAVE HERE IS WHAT PERCENTAGE OF TIME WE THINK THE, THAT LOCAL GENERATION, THE, THE DECKER IN SAND HILL WOULD ACTUALLY RUN IN THESE MODELS? CAPACITY FACTORS? IS THAT, IS THAT INFORMATION SOMEWHERE? I, I KNOW WE'VE PUT THAT TOGETHER.
I BELIEVE THAT MAY BE IN THE APPENDIX, BUT THAT'S CERTAINLY SOMETHING, CAPACITY FACTORS ON THOSE DIFFERENT ASSETS IS SOMETHING I THINK WE SHOULD PROVIDE AND WE'D LIKE TO PROVIDE.
I KNOW IN A LOT OF THE SCENARIOS, ESPECIALLY THE ONES RUN BY ASCEND, WE SAW A LOT OF PEAKING UNITS REALLY 8% OR LESS YEAR OVER YEAR KIND OF DECLINING OVER TIME, AS YOU WOULD EXPECT, AS THERE'S MORE AND MORE SUPPLY IN THE SYSTEM THAT IS RENEWABLE THAT'S GONNA DISPATCH FIRST.
UM, AND WITH THE ADDITION OF BATTERIES THAT WOULD HELP YOU NOT USE PEAKING UNITS QUITE AS MUCH ON THOSE SHORTER DURATION EVENTS.
UM, AND, AND I'M CURIOUS ABOUT, UM, THE COMBINED CYCLE UNIT TWO AND HOW THAT WOULD RUN.
AND I DON'T KNOW IF YOU GUYS LOOKED AT THAT AS PART OF THE MODEL, HOW MUCH THE, IF THAT, IF THAT'S NOT CURRENTLY IN THE APPENDICES, THEN I THINK WE CAN PULL THAT OUT AND WE CAN HAVE THAT READY, UM, PROBABLY PRIOR TO THE END OF THE WEEK SO WE CAN SHARE THAT INFORMATION.
[01:30:01]
EMMA ONLINE? WE DO HAVE SOME QUESTIONS FOR YOU ALL THOUGH.UM, SO WE SHOULD, IT'S KIND OF OUR INSIGHTS.
UH, SO WE'RE ALSO INTERESTED IN WHAT DID YOU OBSERVE, UH, IS THERE ANYTHING THAT SURPRISED YOU? AND THEN WHAT INSIGHTS DID YOU GAIN? UM, AND I THINK WE ARE LOOKING TO DO THAT THROUGH A SURVEY AND NOT NECESSARILY RIGHT HERE TODAY, BUT IF YOU'D LIKE TO START TALKING ABOUT RIGHT HERE TODAY, WE'RE, WE'RE HAPPY TO DO THAT AS WELL AND TAKE THOSE NOTES.
I, I WAS, UH, JUST QUESTIONING EARLIER THE TIMING THAT TO REALISTIC WHEN CITY COUNCIL, UH, WILL HAVE THIS DATA, UH, AND WITH OUR RECOMMENDATIONS IN ORDER TO HAVE A VOTE, UH, AS I RECALL THE, THE GOAL, THE PLAN AND UH, WAS THAT IT WOULD BE DONE BY THE CITY COUNCIL BEFORE THE END OF THE YEAR.
IS THAT REALISTIC? WE ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR A VOTE BY THE END OF THE YEAR.
WE HAVE TO PIVOT AWAY FROM MODELING TO KEY INSIGHTS AND CHARACTERISTICS THAT YOU WANNA SEE IN THE PLAN.
UM, MY HOPE IS THAT WE WILL BE BRINGING YOU, UH, YOU KNOW, REFLECTING YOUR KEY INSIGHTS BACK TO YOU SOME OF OUR OWN, UM, IN THE FORM OF KEY RESULTS AND THAT YOU'LL BE ABLE TO VOTE IN THE NEXT MEETING.
WE MAY HAVE TO HAVE SOME DISCUSSION AND OFFICE HOURS TO ALLOW TO MAKE SURE THAT YOU HAVE TIME TO REVIEW THOSE AND UNDERSTAND WHAT THEY ARE.
BUT THAT IS MY, UM, ANTICIPATED PLAN.
AND, UM, COUNCIL SHOULD HAVE, UH, TIME TO VOTE BEFORE THE END OF THE YEAR.
IS COUNCIL GONNA BE, UH, SCHEDULED TO MEET IN DECEMBER? THEY ARE, YES.
WE HAVE A UOC IN NOVEMBER AND THEY HAVE A MEETING IN DECEMBER.
WHAT I UNDERSTAND IS THERE, IT'LL BE NOVEMBER 19TH THAT THE COMMITTEE AND THEN DECEMBER 10TH AT A WORK SESSION AND THEN DECEMBER 12TH FOR A VOTE.
YEAH, I HAD A COUPLE OF QUESTIONS.
UM, JUST TO FIGURE OUT HOW THESE RELATE TO WHAT WE SAW LAST MONTH.
UM, 'CAUSE OBVIOUSLY YOU'RE COMPARING THESE THREE SCENARIOS TO EACH OTHER, BUT, BUT OBVIOUSLY ALL THOSE OTHER, UM, SCENARIOS ARE STILL ON THE TABLE.
IS THAT, IS THAT A, IS THAT A CORRECT ASSUMPTION THAT SO WE, IT'S A LITTLE ODD FOR ME TO LOOK AT THESE THREE BUT NOT BE ABLE TO COMPARE 'EM WITH THE OTHERS RIGHT.
WITHOUT HAVING TO FLIP FROM ONE SLIDE DECK TO ANOTHER.
WE, WE HAVE ONE SLIDE WHERE YOU KIND OF HAVE A COMPARISON AT LEAST ON LIQUIDITY RISK.
WE, WE DIDN'T NECESSARILY PUT ALL 17 PORTFOLIOS, BUT THEY ARE IN THE APPENDICES.
SO YEAH, WE HAVE A, A NUMBER OF GRAPHS IN THE APPENDICES THAT TRY TO SHOW A BIT MORE COMPARISON.
WE JUST DIDN'T WANNA OVERLOAD YOU WITH, WITH DATA HERE.
WELL THAT'S A, IT'S A LOT OF LINES YET
UM, AND THEN THE OTHER QUESTION I HAD AGAIN, THAT YOU'ALL COULD PROVIDE FOR US, 'CAUSE I NOTICED THESE PARTICULAR SCENARIOS SHOW, UM, YOU KNOW, THE P MEGAWATT WIND AND SOLAR PPAS, BUT SOME OF THE, UH, I MEAN THAT REAL, THAT REALLY WASN'T ADDRESSED OR SHOWN IN THE, UH, IN THE PREVIOUS MODELING SLIDE DECK THAT WE SAW.
UH, SO I DON'T KNOW IF YOU COULD JUST FOR EACH OF THOSE SEND US LIKE WHAT, UH, UM, YOU KNOW WHAT I MEAN? LIKE WHAT IS THE ASSUMPTION OF PPA FOR EACH OF THE SCENARIOS, RIGHT.
SO I THINK THE ORIGINAL APP DEPENDENCIES ARE ONE FROM LAST TIME AROUND.
WE HAD, UH, A SLIDE FOR EACH PORTFOLIO THAT KIND OF GAVE YOU ALL THE STATS.
SO IT WOULD TELL YOU THE ASSUMPTIONS, THE TOTAL WIND, THE TOTAL SOLAR TOTAL EMISSIONS.
UH, IT KIND OF HAD ALL THE, ALL THE MAJOR METRICS ALL JUST ON, ON ONE SLIDE.
OH, SO ACTUALLY THE SEE ALL THAT IS PPAS RO ARE YOU ASKING FOR THE PRICES? NO, I JUST NOTICED IN, IN, IN THESE, UH, IN THIS, IN THIS SUMMARY OF THESE THREE SCENARIOS, THEY HAVE 2,500 MEGAWATTS OF WIND SOLAR PPAS.
AND THEN IN THE SUMMARY OF THE OTHER ONES, IT DIDN'T REALLY SAY WHAT THAT WAS.
AND I MEAN, I DID GO AND LOOK AT THE PORTFOLIO.
RAUL, IF YOU LOOK AT, UM, I DON'T KNOW IF YOU HAVE THE LATEST RUN WITH
[01:35:01]
THE APPENDICES, BUT IF YOU LOOK AT, I THINK IT'S 42, SO SLIDE 42 OR PAGE 42, THEY'VE GOT ALL THE 2035 MODELED INSTALLED CAPACITY.AND THAT WILL TELL YOU 35, YEAH.
AND THAT SHOULD TELL YOU ALL THE DIFFERENT CAPACITIES AND ALL THE DIFFERENT PORTFOLIOS FROM THIS MEETING OR FROM THE LAST, IT HAS ALL OF 'EM FROM THIS, FROM THIS MEETING.
UM, IN THE APPENDICES OF TODAY'S PRESENTATION, THERE'S SLIDE NUMBER 42 THAT SHOWS YOU THE, IT DOESN'T SHOW YOU THE PRICES, BUT IT SHOWS YOU THE AMOUNTS FOR ALL THE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS.
SO YOU GOTTA GO PAST THE PRESENTATION INTO THE APPENDICES.
NOW THAT HELPS
AND UM, AND AGAIN, I THINK YOU'RE, UH, YOU TALKED ABOUT, I JUST WANNA UNDERSTAND WHAT THIS MEANS.
THERE'S, YOU KEEP TALKING ABOUT A POWER INPUT CAPACITY GOING ONLINE.
I'M NOT SURE I'M USING THE RIGHT WORDS.
UM, 2030 TO 2031, YOU SAY WHAT THAT IS? 'CAUSE THAT IT'S KIND OF FOREIGN TO ME.
WHAT, WHAT THAT TERMINOLOGY IS.
IMPORT CAPACITY, THAT IS US, US LOOKING AT BUILDING OUT ADDITIONAL TRANSMISSION AND SOME DISTRIBUTION, SOME TRANSMISSION ASSETS.
ABOVE AND BEYOND WHAT WE ALREADY PLANNED TO DO TO TRY TO INCREASE IMPORT CAPACITY.
UM, SO THAT WE HAVE OKAY, THAT MAKES SENSE.
LESS AND MINUS ONE CONTINGENCY RISK.
I DIDN'T, YEAH, I MEAN OBVIOUSLY IT'S BENEFICIAL JUST BASED ON THE, UH, THE RUNS HIMSELF.
UH, I JUST WANTED TO MAKE SURE I UNDERSTOOD WHAT IT MEANT.
SO, UM, AND, UM, WELL, I APPRECIATE IT, UM, THAT, THAT, THAT HELPS ME, UH, KNOW WHERE TO LOOK FOR STUFF AND HOW TO MAKE SENSE OF THANKS A LOT.
AND THAT BRINGS US TO HOPEFULLY THE NEXT SLIDE THAT I CAN HOPEFULLY GET TO.
LIKE I KILLED THE BATTERIES IN THIS OH GREAT.
SO ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS YOU WANNA GO OVER SOME OF THE OUTPUT, UNDERSTAND BETTER WHY THINGS MOVE IN VARIOUS TIMES.
UH, WE HAVE OFFICE HOURS STARTING TOMORROW, UH, THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
UH, SO THEY'RE LISTED HERE TODAY.
SO IF YOU WISH TO ATTEND, UH, PLEASE SIGN UP AND WE'RE HAPPY TO TALK AND DISCUSS MORE.
AND THEN, UH, WE ARE LOOKING FOR SURVEY RESPONSES FROM EVERY COMMISSIONER ON ON THE VARIOUS QUESTIONS.
UH, FOR THOSE INSIGHTS, WHAT DID YOU OBSERVE? WHAT SURPRISED YOU? UM, WHAT INSIGHTS DID YOU GAIN? I'LL SEND THAT, I'M GONNA SEND OUT THE LINK LATER THIS WEEK.
SO ONE, UM, ONE ISSUE IS THAT HAVING THE RESULTS FROM THE FOUR, FROM SCENARIO 14 WOULD BE VERY HELPFUL SURE.
TO FORM SOME OF THESE INSIGHTS, I THINK JUST TO SEE HOW IT DIFFERED.
UM, AND WE'RE WORKING HARD TO GET THAT AS, AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.
WE JUST WANNA MAKE SURE THAT THERE ARE NO ISSUES WITH IT BEFORE WE RELEASE THAT DATA.
UM, I KNOW THEY'RE WORKING HARD TO RUN IT TODAY.
UH, WE'RE ALREADY RERUNNING IT.
UM, AND I'M HOPEFUL WE HAVE IT BEFORE THE END OF THE WEEK.
I JUST DON'T WANNA MAKE ANY PROMISES.
'CAUSE THERE COULD ALWAYS BE HICCUPS ALONG THE WAY WHERE WE HAVE TO MAKE SURE WE CORRECT THAT.
WHAT WAS IT THAT WAS WRONG? 'CAUSE I MEAN, WE HAD IT IN THE SLIDES THAT WE GOT ON FRIDAY.
UM, IT LOOKS LIKE THE TWO NEW ASSETS WE WERE MODELING THERE, THERE'S SOMETHING NOT MODELED CORRECTLY WITH THEM.
UH, AND THAT'S BASED UPON SOME OF THE CAPACITY FACTORS WE'RE SEEING, UM, THAT WE, WE DIDN'T MODEL REACH ON, IT WAS PART OF IT, BUT EVEN WITHOUT REACH, WE, WE WANNA DIG IN AND, AND REALLY LOOK AT THAT A LITTLE BIT BETTER.
THE CAPACITY FACTOR FOR A PEAKER DID DIDN'T MAKE SENSE.
AND SO I I THINK WE JUST NEED TO THINK IT WAS TOO HIGH OR THE CAPACITY FACTOR WAS HIGHER THAN WHAT YOU WOULD EXPECT.
WHAT I'VE EVER SEEN HISTORICALLY, AND, AND, AND LIKE I SAID, WE WANT TO MAKE SURE WE'RE MODELING IT CORRECTLY.
WE WANNA MAKE SURE WE'RE MODELING REACH, WE WANNA MAKE SURE THAT WE'RE MODELING THE IMPORT CAPACITY CORRECTLY.
AND THERE WASN'T SOMETHING FUNKING THAT RUN WITH WHERE THAT GAS UNIT WAS PLACED THAT WAS CAUSING SOME ISSUE.
SO WE JUST NEED TO MAKE SURE IT'S, IT'S GIVING US GOOD RESULTS.
AND THAT'S, THAT'S PROBABLY THE KIND OF QUALITY ASSURANCE WE LIKE TO DO.
IF YOU LOOK AT NUMBERS THAT COME OUT OF A MODEL AND SOMETHING LOOKS A LITTLE OFF TIME TO DIG BACK IN THAT MODEL, REALLY UNDERSTAND WHAT HAPPENED THERE AND MAKE SURE WE'RE, WE'RE MODELING IT CORRECTLY, EXTEND THE SURVEY, WE CAN OKAY.
END OF THE WEEK, BUT LET'S JUST KEEP IT AT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK FOR NOW.
SO WHAT SHE SAID, IF WE CAN EXTEND THE SURVEY DATE THAT'S GONNA PROHIBIT SOME OF THE RESPONSES, UH, RIGHT NOW, WE'D LIKE TO KEEP IT THERE AND TRY TO GET THOSE MODEL RESULTS BACK TO YOU SOONER RATHER THAN LATER.
UH, BUT WE CAN CERTAINLY MOVE THAT OUT IF WE NEED TO.
[01:40:01]
I'M, I GUESS I'M CURIOUS, LIKE, IS THERE REASON TO BELIEVE THAT THE OTHER PORTFOLIOS MIGHT NOT HAVE SOME ISSUE WITH THEM AS WELL? SO WE SPENT A LOT OF TIME THIS WEEKEND DIGGING THROUGH THAT TO MAKE SURE WE WERE COMFORTABLE AND CONFIDENT IN THOSE.UH, AND I THINK, UH, THE TEAM CAME TO THE CONCLUSION.
WE, WE WERE HAPPY THE RESULTS FROM THERE.
IT WAS REALLY, UH, JUST THE WAY THESE TWO NEW UNITS WERE ACTING THAT THAT DIDN'T ALIGN WITH WHAT WE WOULD EXPECT.
AND WHAT WE'VE SEEN HAPPEN IN, IN THE REAL MARKET IS WE JUST REALLY WANT TO DIG IN AND MAKE SURE THAT THOSE ARE GETTING MODELED CORRECTLY.
SO ARE THERE ANY OTHER QUESTIONS OR THIS IS GONNA, THIS IS SORT OF A OPEN-ENDED QUESTION, BUT, UM, ONE OF THE DIFFICULTIES I'M HAVING IS KNOWING WHETHER TO BELIEVE, UM, THE ECONOMIC POTENTIAL STUDY OF DNV.
SO I THINK WE SEE IN THE, IN THE RESULTS OF THESE SCENARIOS THAT IF YOU'RE ABLE TO DO A LOT OF DEMAND RESPONSE, ENERGY EFFICIENCY, LOCAL STORAGE AND SOLAR, IT CAN HELP SOLVE MAYBE NOT ALL THE PROBLEMS, BUT QUITE A FEW OF THOSE PROBLEMS. BUT SOME OF THOSE NUMBERS THAT WE MODELED WERE HIGHER THAN WHAT DNV SUGGESTED WE COULD GET TO.
SO I'M HAVING A DIFFICULT, AS A COMMISSIONER, I'M HAVING DIFFICULTY KNOWING, YOU KNOW, KIND OF WHAT'S, WHAT'S REAL.
SO I GUESS MY QUESTION FOR AUSTIN ENERGY IS, UM, DO YOU THINK THAT THOSE DNV NUMBERS ARE THE UPPER LIMIT OF WHAT WE CAN GET TO IN 2035? OR DO YOU THINK, UM, YOU KNOW, I I IS IS THERE A RECOMMENDATION WHERE WE CAN SAY, YOU KNOW, WE WANNA GET AT LEAST THIS MUCH, BUT IF WE CAN GET TO THESE HIGHER LEVELS? I, I DON'T KNOW.
I'M JUST TRYING TO, ON THE, ON THE VALIDITY OR AC ACCURACY, I PROBABLY DEFERRED TO RICHARD AND THE CES TEAM AS THEIR, I'VE WORKED MORE ON WHOLESALE MARKETS AS OPPOSED TO LOCAL.
UM, I WOULD JUST MAYBE CAVEAT OR SAY THAT IT'S GREAT TO HAVE ASPIRATIONAL GOALS AND WE SHOULD STRETCH FOR AND REACH FOR WHAT WE CAN.
UH, BUT MAYBE DON'T BET EVERYTHING ON ASPIRATIONAL GOALS MIGHT BE A, A BETTER APPROACH.
IS THERE A REASON WHY WE DON'T HAVE THE STUDY? I THOUGHT WE WERE GONNA HAVE IT, BUT NO, UH, IT'S NOT COMPLETE YET, BUT WE CAN FOLLOW WITH DNB AND FIND OUT WHY THAT'S NOT READY YET.
IT'S NOT, IT'S NOT SCHEDULED TO BE DONE YET.
I GUESS I JUST HAD A, A COMMENT.
UM, AND IT'S COMMENT, NOT A QUESTION BECAUSE YEAH, I ALREADY TALKED WITH LISA ABOUT IT, BUT, UM, YOU KNOW, WE HAVE TALKED HERE ABOUT ACCOUNTING FOR THE FUGITIVE METHANE EMISSIONS, UM, IN, IN THE SUPPLY CHAIN AND THOSE ARE NOT ACCOUNTED FOR.
AND WE'VE ALSO HEARD FROM MULTIPLE MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC ABOUT MONETIZING OR, UM, CONVERTING INTO MONETARY VALUE, THE, UM, YOU KNOW, THE COST OF POLLUTION AND THAT'S STILL NOT ACCOUNTED FOR.
THERE ARE, UM, YOU KNOW, EPA NUMBERS FOR DOING THAT.
SO I JUST, YEAH, WE, I THINK WE'D LOVE TO JUST, I THINK IT'S A MISSED OPPORTUNITY, EVEN IF IT IS OUTSIDE OF AUSTIN ENERGIES.
I GET THAT Y'ALL DON'T INCUR THAT COST OR AT LEAST NOT THE WHOLE COST.
BUT IT IS A COMMUNITY COST AND IT IS A PUBLIC UTILITY.
SO I WISH WE COULD LOOK MORE HOLISTICALLY AT THAT STUFF.
I THINK WE'D BE HAPPY TO DISCUSS THAT DURING OFFICE HOURS.
I KNOW WE HAVE SOME PEOPLE, UH, THAT ARE VERY, UH, HAVE STUDY ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND HAVE LOOKED AT THE EPA NUMBERS AS WELL AND THE APPLE, HOW YOU APPLY THOSE AND WHAT THOSE ARE DESIGNED FOR.
AND HAPPY TO DISCUSS ALL THAT AND TALK THROUGH ALL THAT AS WELL.
ON THAT SAME TOPIC, WHEN WE HEARD, UH, COMMENTS REGARDING EXTERNALITIES, UH, ONE OF THE EXTERNALITIES WE'VE SEEN IN THE TWO WINTER STORM, IN THE TWO WINTER STORMS WERE LOSS OF LIFE.
SO AGAIN, AS WE'RE LOOKING, TALKING ABOUT THE, THOSE FACTORS, THAT'S, THAT'S ONE ON THE OTHER SIDE REALLY PLAYS INTO RELIABILITY.
AND, AND YEAH, JUST AS AN ANTIDOTE, I WOULD SAY I MOVED TO AUSTIN IN THE YEAR 2000 AND BACK THEN WHEN WE THOUGHT IT WAS GONNA SNOW, WE ALL GOT EXCITED
WE'RE LIKE, OH, MIGHT SNOW DOWN HERE MIGHT DUST.
AND NOW WHAT HAPPENS WHEN WE THINK IT MIGHT SNOW IS EVERYBODY SITS ON THE EDGE OF THEIR SEAT AND HOPES
[01:45:01]
THE GRID STAYS TOGETHER.AND SO IT'D BE GREAT TO GET BACK TO THAT TIME WHEN WE'RE KIND OF MAYBE EXCITED FOR THAT RARE OCCASION AS OPPOSED TO FEARING IT.
I WAS JUST, UM, I APPRECIATE, I APPRECIATE MODELING THE, THE, UH, THE EXTRA IMPORT CAPACITY.
I WAS JUST, I'M JUST CURIOUS, LIKE FOR HOW, HOW, HOW REALISTIC DO YOU THINK IT WOULD BE TO, TO BE ABLE TO, TO, TO DO THAT? I MEAN, I KNOW IT'S EASY TO PUT INTO A, A MODEL, BUT I'M JUST, I'M JUST CURIOUS LIKE, YEAH.
SO I'VE BEEN, UM, PRETTY UPFRONT ABOUT THIS IN A NUMBER OF WAYS, RIGHT? WE, UM, LOOK EVERY YEAR DO A PLAN ASSESSMENT, SEE WHICH, UH, TRANSMISSION ITEMS NEED TO GO ON THE LIST AND HOW THEY COMPARE TO OTHERS BASED OFF THE CHANGING DYNAMIC GRID.
UM, SO MY TEAM, UM, ON NOT THE MARKET SIDE IS NOT ALLOWED TO KNOW ABOUT THE SPECIFICS HERE.
UM, THAT'S NOT PUBLIC IN ERCOT, UH, BUT THE TRANSMISSION PLANNING TEAM AND THE TRANSMISSION, UH, ENGINEERING TEAM, UM, I'VE GIVEN THEM THE DIRECTIVE TO MAKE SURE THAT, UH, IMPORT CAPACITY IS A PRIORITY.
THERE'S A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT QUESTION ABOUT GETTING THAT THROUGH THE REGULATORY APPROVALS.
UM, ALTHOUGH I THINK THOSE WORLDS ARE CHANGING TO SOME EXTENT.
I THINK THAT, UM, YOU KNOW, THIS MODEL ALREADY INCLUDES KNOWN, UH, IMPORT CAPACITY INCREASES.
UM, AND SO THEN TO ASSUME ANOTHER 250 ON TOP OF THAT, UM, AT A SET OF COSTS IS, IS A BIT OF A WILD, UH, YOU KNOW, IT'S, IT'S AN ESTIMATE TO SAY THE LEAST, RIGHT? BUT I THINK THAT TO ASSUME THAT THERE'S NO INCREASE IN IMPORT CAPACITY IS ALSO NOT REALLY FAIR.
SO WE TRIED TO DO THE BEST WE CAN.
I CAN'T PUT A PROBABILITY ON IT.
I CAN JUST TELL YOU THAT IT IS A PRIORITY OF OURS, UM, TO DO WHAT WE CAN AND, UM, UH, MAKE SURE THAT THE, IT'S ACROSS THE ENTIRE PORTION OF OUR SYSTEM SO THAT THE POWER CAN FLOW.
BECAUSE JUST CREATING AN IMPORT POINT DOESN'T NECESSARILY HELP YOU ALL THE WAY THROUGH.
UM, AND THEN I GUESS I JUST NEED TO REITERATE THE ASPECT OF WE ONLY HAVE CONTROL OF SO MUCH TRANSMISSION IN THE ERCOT SYSTEM, A VERY SMALL PERCENTAGE.
AND SO, UM, IT'S, THERE'S STILL GONNA BE A CONSTRAINT FROM WHERE THE POWER IS LOCATED TO OUR BOUNDARIES TO BRING IT TO US.
SO I, UM, SAY ALL THAT BECAUSE I JUST WANNA EMPHASIZE THAT I AM A STRONG BELIEVER IN, YOU KNOW, BUILDING OUT YOUR TRANSMISSION CAPACITY, BUT IT'S NOT A SILVER BULLET.
AND, UM, I APPRECIATE THE QUESTION, BUT I CAN'T GIVE YOU A PROBABILITY ON IT.
UM, JUST TO SAY THAT I THINK IT'S, I, I, I THINK IT'S, WE WILL GET SOME INCREASE.
I DON'T KNOW IF IT'LL BE 250 MEGAWATTS.
SO LISA, WHY DON'T YOU STAY UP THERE BECAUSE I'M, SO, WHEN'S THE RIGHT TIME TO REALLY INTRODUCE THE CAPITAL BUDGETING? BECAUSE I, I WOULD THINK A A E, JUST LIKE ANY OTHER ORGANIZATION, HAS MANY MORE IDEAS OF HOW TO INVEST CAPEX THAN YOU DO HAVE CAPEX BUDGET AVAILABLE.
AND ONE OF THE NUMBER ONE THINGS, IF RELIABILITY IS NUMBER ONE, IS HARDENING THE DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM, WHICH IS REALLY ISN'T INCLUDED IN THIS.
SO WHAT GOES THROUGH MY MIND AGAIN IS LOOKING OUT 11 YEARS, YOU HAVE A LOAD PROJECTION, YOU CAN DOLLARIZE THAT TO GET A REVENUE PROJECTION.
YOU CAN GET A ROUGH ESTIMATE OF HOW MUCH AS A PERCENTAGE OF REVENUE YOUR CAPEX IS PER YEAR AND HAVE A BAND IN THAT.
SO YOU CAN SEE WHAT YOUR CAPEX BUDGET GENERALLY WOULD BE, AND THEN START LAYING IN HOW MUCH YOU'RE GONNA SPEND ON THESE DIFFERENT WIDGETS AND INVESTMENTS AND SEEING IF THEY JUST FIT SORT OF HAVING A SANITY CHECK ON THE FINANCIALS AS WELL AS THE TECHNICAL EMISSIONS AND, AND THINGS LIKE THAT.
UH, WHEN DO YOU THINK WE CAN GET A VIEW OF THAT? SO, I MEAN, I THINK THERE ARE TWO, YOU KNOW, MAIN POINTS ONE'S WHAT, WHAT STEWART BROUGHT UP BEFORE, RIGHT? SO WHEN WE'RE LOOKING AT COSTS OF PARTICULAR SCENARIOS OR PORTFOLIOS, FORGIVE ME, UM, IT, IT DOESN'T INCLUDE SOME OF THOSE OTHER TYPES OF COSTS THAT YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT.
UM, AND, AND SO, UM, THAT'S ONE THING TO MAKE JUST ESSENTIALLY LEAVE SOME ROOM IN THE BUDGET, RIGHT? FOR OTHER ESSENTIALS WITHIN AUSTIN ENERGY FOR THE COMMUNITY, RIGHT? UM, THE OTHER THING I THINK IS THAT, UM, CERTAIN CAPITAL EXPENDITURES, RIGHT IN, IN THE GENERATION SPACE, IN THE SUPPLY SPACE, THEY IT, BECAUSE AS MICHAEL'S MENTIONED, WE HAVE, YOU KNOW, WE HAVE SERVE LOAD AND WE HAVE THE GENERATION.
SO IN THE ERCOT MARKET, THERE'S GOING TO BE COST AND REVENUE ON BOTH SIDES, AND THOSE WILL NET AGAINST EACH OTHER TO SOME EXTENT, NOT FULLY, RIGHT? AND THAT'S IMPORTANT ASPECT TO TAKE INTO CONSIDERATION.
[01:50:01]
UM, WHEN WE LOOK AT THE VARIOUS, UH, SUPPLY COMPONENTS HERE, RIGHT? IF WE ADD THEM INTO OUR LOCAL SPACE AND THEY HELP REDUCE OUR CONGESTION COST, THEN THAT WILL OVER OVERALL REDUCE OUR PSA RATES THAT GET PASSED THROUGH, RIGHT? AND THERE MIGHT BE A INCREASE IN THE BASE RATE FOR THAT SAME ASSET, BUT YOU'RE ESSENTIALLY, RIGHT NOW WE'RE PAYING FOR ADDITIONAL LOCAL GENERATION THROUGH OUR PSA RATES THROUGH CONGESTION COST.SO, UM, IT, THEY'RE ALL IMPORTANT CONSIDERATIONS TO, TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT HERE.
YEAH, AND, AND IT, YOU KNOW, I, I PREFER TO THINK OF THE AMOUNT WE HAVE TO SPEND ON PROJECTS AS A FUNCTION OF OUR CUSTOMERS BILLS AND THE AFFORDABILITY.
SO WHERE, WHERE ARE OUR RATES? UM, HOW ARE WE ABLE TO MANAGE AFFORDABILITY FOR OUR CUSTOMERS AND WHERE DO WE END UP FROM A REVENUE PERSPECTIVE AFTER THAT? AND SO AS WE'RE LOOKING AHEAD AND, AND WE DO OUR FORECASTING AND WE'RE LOOKING AT THE AMOUNT OF DOLLARS THAT WE HAVE, BECAUSE JUST TO FOCUS ON CAPEX, FOR EXAMPLE, WE COULD ENTER INTO A BUNCH OF PPAS AND THAT'S NOT GONNA HIT OUR CAPEX BUDGET, BUT OUR HITS, OUR, HITS OUR CUSTOMERS AFFORDABILITY.
UM, AND SO IT'S, IT'S REALLY ABOUT MAKING THE RIGHT INVESTMENTS THAT WILL PROTECT OUR CUSTOMERS FROM ALL THE, YOU KNOW, RE RELIABILITY, SUSTAINABILITY AND AFFORDABILITY TYPES OF THINGS THAT YOU ALL ARE TALKING ABOUT ALREADY.
SO I WOULDN'T WANT TO ONLY LOOK AT A CAPEX BUDGET IN A VACUUM BECAUSE WE'RE NOT AN INVESTOR OWNED UTILITY MAKING A RATE OF RETURN ON THAT CAPEX BUDGET.
WE'RE WORKING TO USE ALL THE RESOURCES THAT WE HAVE IN THE MOST EFFECTIVE MANNER AND AND TO MANAGE THAT CUSTOMER'S BILL.
AND FORGIVE ME IF I'M MISCHARACTERIZING KIND OF ANYTHING THAT YOU SAID THERE, BUT THAT'S JUST KIND OF MY, MY, MY TAKE ON IT AND WE CAN DISCUSS IT MORE FOR SURE.
OH, I WAS WONDERING IN TERMS OF THE, THE 2% AFFORDABILITY GOAL.
I KNOW THAT'S, YOU KNOW, THAT IS THE CURRENT GOAL.
UM, ALSO IT SEEMED LIKE THERE WAS PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS AT THE WORKSHOPS ABOUT, YOU KNOW, NOT HAVING THAT BE A, UM, YOU KNOW, HARD LINE IN THE SAND, THE PRIORITIZATION OF LOWER INCOME CUSTOMERS, UM, BUT ALLOWING FOR, YOU KNOW, ALLOWING, ALLOWING RATES TO GO BEYOND THAT GOAL BECAUSE FRANKLY, IT LOOKS LIKE THERE'S NOT REALLY MUCH CHANCE OF KEEPING WITHIN IT, UM, WOULD BE ACCEPTABLE.
SO I'M, I'M WONDERING AS WE MOVE FORWARD HOW WE CAN LOOK AT DIFFERENT MARKERS BEYOND JUST THE 2% THAT'S THE CURRENT GOAL.
IT'S A CITY COUNCIL GOAL AFFORDABILITY GOAL WE HAVE TODAY.
SO IT WOULD JUST BE A CHANGE FROM CITY COUNCIL ON HOW WE WANNA VIEW THAT.
AND IT'S PART OF, IT'S PART OF WHEN WE DO, UM, RATE MAKING EXERCISES.
UM, BUT I THINK THAT, UH, THERE ARE, UH, YOU KNOW, THE VALUE STATEMENTS, THE OBJECTIVE STATEMENTS, UM, START TO REFLECT, YOU KNOW, WHAT THE COMMUNITY'S VALUES AND PRIORITIES ARE WITH REGARDS TO THOSE.
AND THEN KEY RESULTS COULD START TO REFLECT, YOU KNOW, THAT AS WELL.
SORRY FOR JUMPING IN, UH, AGAIN, UM, I, I WOULD, WE'VE SEEN OTHER UTILITIES THAT HAVE PUT THEIR MARKER AT, YOU KNOW, THE RATE OF INFLATION, FOR EXAMPLE, AND KEEPING THEIR RATE INCREASES BELOW THE RATE OF INFLATION.
SO THAT'S SOMETHING, 'CAUSE CURRENTLY WE'RE, WE'RE, YOU KNOW, WE'VE SEEN OTHER UTILITIES THAT ARE FORECASTING OUT, YOU KNOW, 6% RATE INCREASES EVERY YEAR FOR THE NEXT FIVE YEARS, EVERY SINGLE YEAR OR, OR EVEN MORE.
SO THERE ARE A LOT OF WAYS, I THINK THAT WAS THE WORLD THAT WE WERE IN WHEN THAT AFFORDABILITY METRIC WAS SET.
OF COURSE, IT DID NOT ANTICIPATE THE AMOUNT OF INFLATION THAT WE'VE SEEN IN OUR COMPONENTS NOW.
SO I, I THINK THERE, THAT'S DEFINITELY A POLICY DECISION OR A POLICY DISCUSSION THAT, UM, WE'RE, WE'RE VERY WILLING TO HAVE AS WELL BECAUSE I, I DO THINK THAT'S A VERY DIFFICULT PERCENTAGE TO HAVE ON AN ONGOING BASIS.
IT, IT, IT GETS HARD IN SOME YEARS TO MEET THAT.
SO LET ME ASK RELATED TO THAT, COULD MAKING ANY CHANGES THAT RECOGNIZING THE COST, NECESSARY COST, UH, AS WE GO FORWARD WITH CLEANER AIR, BETTER CLIMATE, UH, IS IT
[01:55:01]
POSSIBLE TO TIE THAT, UH, IN TERMS OF THE AFFORDABILITY TO REEXAMINE, UH, THE CAP PROGRAM? AND I SAY THAT BECAUSE I, I KNOW A NUMBER OF UTILITIES IN THE NORTHEAST HAVE GRADUATED IN ESSENCE, INSTEAD OF A 10% DISCOUNT, UH, LARGER DISCOUNT, LARGER DISCOUNTS FOR THOSE WHO ARE MOST IN NEED, WHO ARE ON IN THE MOST SEVERE POVERTY, WHERE WE HAVE USED 10%, IS THERE SOME WAY BASICALLY TO PROVIDE NEW PROTECTIONS BEYOND WHAT WE HAVE THAT WOULD PROTECT THE, THOSE CUSTOMERS THAT KAYE WAS REFERRING TO? WELL, RIGHT NOW OUR FOCUS IS ON GETTING FROM THAT WE WERE AT ABOUT 35 OR SO THOUSAND CAP CUSTOMERS.AND OUR GOAL NOW IS TO GET TO ALMOST 90,000.
SO, UM, YOU KNOW, WE'RE, WE'RE, WE'RE REALLY GROWING THAT PROGRAM.
WE'RE WELL ON OUR WAY TO TO DOING THAT AND WE'RE ENROLLING MANY MORE CUSTOMERS.
I THINK WE'RE, I CAN'T REMEMBER, MAYBE 70, OVER 70,000 CUS UH, CAP CUSTOMER ENROLLEES NOW.
SO BY, BY DOING THAT, BY DOUBLING THE ENROLLEES IN CAP, WE'VE, WE'VE DOUBLED THE NECESSARY FUNDING FOR CAP AND WE'VE, THAT WAS OUR SINGLE LARGEST RATE INCREASE THIS YEAR IN THE LAST BUDGET, UM, WAS, WAS A CAP CHARGE INCREASE TO OUR, OUR NORMAL CUSTOMER.
AND SO WHAT WE, WE ALWAYS WANT TO DO IS FIND THE RIGHT BALANCE BETWEEN, UM, HELPING OUT THE CUSTOMERS WHO ARE MOST IN NEED AND ALSO NOT PUTTING A FURTHER AFFORDABILITY PINCH ON MIDDLE INCOME CUSTOMERS.
AND SO I THINK THAT'S DEFINITELY SOMETHING THAT WE'LL ALWAYS BE REFINING IN, IN TERMS OF HOW WE MANAGE THE CAP PROGRAM.
UH, AS WE CONTINUE TO GROW IT, WE ALSO, YOU KNOW, THEN, THEN YOU TAKE YOUR 500,000 OR SO RESIDENTIAL CUSTOMERS AND YOU, YOU TAKE 20% OF THEM AND YOU KNOW, THEN THE, THE OTHER 80% ARE, ARE FOOTING THE WHOLE BILL AS, AS THAT AS THE CAP CUSTOMER POPULATION GROWS, THE CUSTOMERS WHO CAN PAY FOR IT SHRINK.
SO IT, IT IS CREATING A LITTLE BIT OF A NEW CHALLENGE.
SO I WOULD LIKE US TO GET TO A POINT WHERE, WHERE WE'VE ACHIEVED OUR GOAL IN TERMS OF ENROLLMENT AND THE 200% FE, UM, UH, OR BELOW, UM, OF, LET'S SEE, IT'S, IT'S UM, I CAN'T REMEMBER THE INCOME NOW, NOW I'M DRAWING A BLANK ON THE INCOME REQUIREMENT, BUT WE'D LIKE TO GET TO THAT, THAT LEVEL AND THEN I THINK WE COULD HAVE THOSE TYPES OF POLICY DISCUSSIONS, BUT RIGHT NOW OUR FOCUS IS REALLY ON GROWING THAT POPULATION WHO WE'RE ENROLLING.
I I MEAN THEY, THERE'S BEEN TERRIFIC OUTREACH AS FAR AS I KNOW.
UH, THERE'S BEEN NO AGREEMENT THOUGH WITH THE SCHOOL DISTRICT YET.
THAT'S MY UNDERSTANDING AT THIS POINT AS WELL.
I, I I THINK I HAVE NOT HEARD AN UP, I THINK THE LATEST UPDATE I'VE HEARD ON THAT WAS WHEN CARRIE OVERTON GAVE YOU ALL AN UPDATE ON THAT.
I HAVEN'T HEARD ANYTHING NEW SINCE THEN, BUT, UH, BUT ALL OF WHICH IS WHATEVER WE CAN AND, AND WITH RESPECT TO, UH, THE CAP PROGRAM THAT IS, UH, SHARED ACROSS ALL CUSTOMER CLASSES, IT'S NOT JUST MODERATE INCOME MODEL AND, AND MODERATE AND UPPER INCOME PEOPLE SUBSIDIZING IT, IT'S ALL CUS CUSTOMER CLASSES.
I'M JUST SAYING THAT IF YOU ARE IN THE CAP PROGRAM, YOU DON'T PAY THE CU THE, THE CAP CHARGE OR THE CUSTOMER CHARGE.
AND THEN ALSO WE HAVE TO BE MINDFUL OF THE FACT THAT, THAT AS WE ENROLL PEOPLE IN THE CAP PROGRAM AT AUSTIN ENERGY, THAT'S ENROLLING THEM IN AUSTIN WATERS CAP PROGRAM AS WELL AND WE HAVE TO MAKE SURE THAT THOSE DEPARTMENTS WHO HAVE A CAP DISCOUNT AND ALL THE DISCOUNTS THAT, THAT, THAT BRINGS ON, ON THE OVERALL CITY OF AUSTIN UTILITIES, BILL HITS ALL THESE OTHER DEPARTMENTS AS WELL.
AND WE'RE ALWAYS JUST TRYING TO STRIKE THE RIGHT BALANCE THAT THEY CAN MANAGE THROUGH THOSE DISCOUNTS AS WELL ON, ON THE, ALL THOSE DEPARTMENTS.
THEY, THEY, THEY NEED TO BE FULLY ON BOARD AS YOU ARE.
THE, THE UM, DIFFICULTY THAT THAT POSED FOR US WAS THERE'S NO TYPICAL CUSTOMER ON THE COMMERCIAL SIDE.
SO THAT WORKS ON A RESIDENTIAL SIDE, BUT IT DOESN'T WORK OVERALL.
AND SO, UM, THERE IS SOMETHING THAT WE'D HAVE TO SORT OUT THERE, THAT'S ALL.
YEAH, I THINK IT WAS THE RECOMMENDATION WAS ONLY TO APPLY THAT TO RESIDENTIAL, KIND OF RECOGNIZING
[02:00:01]
THAT FACT AND, AND WE JUST WANNA RECOGNIZE THE, UH, ADDITIONAL SWAY THAT COMMERCIAL CUSTOMERS MIGHT HAVE IN SOME ARENAS.AND IF WE, IF WE DO SOMETHING ON AFFORDABILITY THAT THAT ONLY GOES TOWARDS THE RESIDENTIAL THAT WE JUST WANT TO MAKE SURE THERE AREN'T ANY UNINTENDED IMPACTS THERE.
I GUESS I WOULD JUST ALSO SAY IF YOU HAVE OTHER UTILITIES THAT ARE DOING 6% A YEAR, THEN OH YEAH, THAT WAS, WAS I THINK COLORADO SPRINGS AND SEATTLE CITY LIGHT, THINGS LIKE THAT, RIGHT? SO YEAH, THERE'S, AND I'M NOT SAYING I DON'T THINK WE NEED TO SAY 6% A YEAR, BUT, UM, YEAH, THERE'S PROBABLY LIKE SOME MIDDLE GROUND THAT'S LIKE REALISTIC, RIGHT? THAT I DON'T KNOW, HAVING A GOAL THAT IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO MEET DOESN'T SEEM LIKE WHAT'S THE POINT.
YEAH, CERTAINLY WE'VE SEEN OVER THE YEARS THAT, THAT OUR CUSTOMER'S BILLS, UH, IF YOU COMPARE THEM TO INFLATION HAVE BEEN GOING DOWN COMPARED TO INFLATION EVEN, YOU KNOW, WITH WHATEVER RATE CHANGES THAT WE'VE HAD OVER THE YEARS, THE IMPACT TO THE CUSTOMER HAS BEEN, YOU KNOW, THEIR BILL HAS GONE DOWN IF YOU COMPARE IT IN CURRENT DAY DOLLARS.
MICHAEL, ANYTHING ELSE? ANY OTHER QUESTIONS? NOPE, THAT'S ALL WE HAD PRESENT.
ANY QUESTIONS ONLINE? OKAY, WITH THAT WE JUST HAD FUTURE AGENDA ITEMS
[FUTURE AGENDA ITEMS]
AND IS THERE ANY, BESIDES ME SAYING IT EVERY TIME ABOUT ANXIOUS TO SEE THE READOUT ON THE, UM, STUDY ON DISTRIBUTION HARDENING? I GUESS IF WE DON'T MEET ON IN DECEMBER, WHEN WILL WE SEE THAT? BECAUSE I THOUGHT IT WAS END OF THE YEAR.I'VE BEEN SO MANY DEEP IN, UH, RESOURCE STANDPOINT.
UM, THE, THE STUDY IS STILL, UM, ON TRACK FOR COMPLETION BY THE END OF THE YEAR.
YOU DON'T HAVE A MEETING IN UH, DECEMBER, SO I WILL, WE'LL WORK WITH Y'ALL TO SEE IF WE CAN, UH, PRESENT THAT IN JANUARY OR FEBRUARY.
ANY, ANYTHING ELSE ANYBODY WANT TO TALK ABOUT? MOVE TO ADJOURN? LET'S MOVE THIS.