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[00:00:05]

SORRY, CAN YOU HEAR ME NOW? YES.

WHAT ABOUT THE WRITING ROOM? I'M GOING TO CALL AND CONVENE

[Item 1]

THOSE, ESPECIALLY TODAY FOR MONDAY, JUNE 29, 2020, IT'S ONE 15.

IS THERE A MEETING OR IN THEIR ACTIONS BEING TAKEN TODAY? WE'LL HAVE ON EXECUTIVE SESSION OR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS POLITICS WHEN HE TRIED TO GET AS MANY PEOPLE HERE, AS WE COULD POTENTIALLY ANSWER QUESTIONS AND STEPHANIE RECTOR HAYDEN, AND IS WITH US.

WE ALSO HAVE, UH, LIKE NEARLY DIVERSITY DOING WORK ON NON TESTING AND TESTING STRATEGIES.

UM, WE ALSO HAVE A WEARABLE AQUA MYERS WILL BE JOINING US AT ONE 45, UH, TO TALK ABOUT, UH, MODELING, UH, THAT, THAT WE HAVE PUT SOME AGENDA ITEMS THAT, UH, THESE FOLKS ARE ABLE TO DISCUSS.

UM, THE GOAL IS TO TRY TO GET INFORMATION TO THE, AS MUCH TIME AS WE CAN ASK THE QUESTIONS AS BEST WE CAN.

UH, AND THEN I THOUGHT THAT I WOULD PERHAPS FOR US TO TALK ABOUT, UH, SPENDING AND WHETHER YOU THINK WE HAVE ENOUGH EARMARKED FOR INCREASE IN REALIZE THAT WE, UH, THAT WE, AS YOU ALL KNOW, UH, AUSTIN IS DEALING WITH ONE OF, UH, UM, YEAH, GREATEST INCREASES IN ACTIVITY OF MAJOR METROPOLITAN AREAS IN THE COUNTRY RIGHT NOW.

UM, AND, UH, THINGS ARE DEALING WITH HOSPITALS AND LIKE IT'S BAD, BUT OTHER THAN THAT, IT IS AS IS TENUOUS.

IT IS NOW, WELL, THIS IS REALLY PROMINENT IN TEXAS.

UM, THAT SAID, I THINK WE'LL GET RIGHT INTO IT.

I'M GOING TO HAVE DR.

ASKPAT STAR HAYDEN STAR, UH, MANAGER KICK US OFF IF HE WANTS TO.

I THINK WE HAVE TO GET TO LIKE THE JOURNEY, UH, RELATIVELY QUICKLY.

CAUSE I THINK WE LOSE SAM WITH JAKE AND, UM, UH, THE MONITOR WILL COME IN AT ONE 45.

GREAT, THANK YOU, MAYOR COUNCIL MEMBERS, AND REALLY APPRECIATE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR STAFF TO PROVIDE AN UPDATE ON OUR HEALTH RESPONSE TO THIS PANDEMIC.

UH, I WANT TO BEGIN BY JUST THANKING THE HEALTH PROFESSIONALS THAT WE HAVE IN OUR COMMUNITY.

UH, AS YOU KNOW, THIS IS GOING TO TAKE ALL OF US WORKING TOGETHER AND WE'VE HAD INCREDIBLE SUPPORT FROM YOU AS COUNSEL AND OUR ENTIRE COMMUNITY, RELYING ON THE PROFESSIONALS THAT WE HAVE IN OUR HEALTH CARE SYSTEM.

UH, THE DOCTOR ASCOT, UH, DIRECTOR HAYDEN AND THE COUNTLESS OF INDIVIDUALS THAT ARE WORKING ON THIS COLLECTIVELY AS A SYSTEM ARE GOING TO BE NEEDED AND WE NEED TO RELY ON THEM IN THE FUTURE GOING FORWARD.

SO THANK YOU FOR THAT CONTINUED SUPPORT.

WE ALSO KNOW THAT THIS IS A MARATHON, NOT A SPRINT.

AS WE SEE THE INCREASE NUMBERS THAT THE MAYOR REFERENCED, UH, WE'RE GOING TO HAVE TO MAKE SOME TOUGH DECISIONS BECAUSE WE WILL NOT HAVE THE RESOURCES THAT ARE GOING TO BE NECESSARY TO ACCOMPLISH AND TO ACCOMMODATE ALL THE NEEDS THAT ARE OUT THERE.

AND SO WE'LL CONTINUE TO UPDATE YOU AND, AND, AND GET GUIDANCE FROM YOU ON THAT ADDITIONAL DIRECTION AS WE MOVE FORWARD.

UH, WE KNOW THAT WE ALL, AS A COMMUNITY NEED TO TAKE THAT INDIVIDUAL RESPONSIBILITY.

THIS ISN'T JUST ABOUT WHAT GOVERNMENT CAN DO.

THIS IS ABOUT WHAT OUR BUSINESS SECTOR CAN DO, WHAT OUR PHILANTHROPIC SECTOR CAN DO.

AND ULTIMATELY WHAT INDIVIDUAL, UH, MEMBERS OF OUR COMMUNITY ARE WILLING TO DO TO PROTECT THEMSELVES AND EACH OTHER.

AND SO WE'RE ALL IN THIS TOGETHER.

AND I LOOK FORWARD TO THIS CONVERSATION TODAY.

I'M GOING TO FIRST HAND IT OFF TO DIRECTOR HAYDEN.

WHO'S GOING TO LEAD OFF OUR PRESENTATION AND THEN SHE'LL PASS IT OVER TO HER ASSISTANT DIRECTOR, DIRECTOR, HAYDEN.

GOOD TO SEE YOU BACK.

THANK YOU.

GOOD AFTERNOON.

THANK YOU, SPENCER.

UM, THANK YOU ALSO, UM, MAYOR ADLER, UM, APPRECIATE THE OPPORTUNITY TO PROVIDE AN UPDATE THIS AFTERNOON.

WE'RE GOING TO CHANGE OUR FORMAT JUST SLIGHTLY TODAY.

I'M GOING TO PROVIDE AN OVERVIEW, UM, AND THEN TRANSITIONED TO ASSISTANT DIRECTOR, UM, ADRIAN STIRRUP TO COVER THE SOCIAL SERVICES BRANCH AND HOMELESS SERVICES.

AND THEN TO DR.

S SCOTT, OUR EPIDEMIOLOGISTS AND SURVEILLANCE.

UM, LAST WEEK, AS YOU ALL

[00:05:01]

WERE AWARE, WE, UM, OUR SYSTEM WAS UNDER MAINTENANCE AND IT WAS UNDER MAINTENANCE FOR US TO ADD THE CASE INVESTIGATION AND CONTACT TRACY TO THAT SYSTEM.

THE SYSTEM, UM, WAS ACTIVE ON FRIDAY ON THE 26TH AND OUR STAFF, UM, BROUGHT IN ADDITIONAL STAFF TO, UM, ENTER INFORMATION, UM, TO CATCH UP ON THE DATA ENTRY.

WE HAVE STARTED TODAY WITH A SHIFT OF TWO TEAMS TO COMPLETE DATA ENTRY.

AND SO THE SYSTEM WILL NOW HAVE THE ABILITY TO REACH OUT TO PERSONS IMMEDIATELY THE STATE'S SYSTEM, WHICH IS CALLED TEXAS HEALTH TRUST, WHICH IS A IT'S THE STATE'S DATA MANAGEMENT SYSTEM THAT WILL ALLOW FOR A COORDINATED STATEWIDE APPROACH TO COVID-19 RESPONSE.

SO THE CITY OF AUSTIN HAS SALESFORCE AS A SYSTEM AND THE STATE OF TEXAS HAS TEXAS HEALTH TRAITS.

AND SO THE GOAL WITH THAT SYSTEM IS ACROSS THE STATE OF TEXAS.

THEY HAVE FOR A COORDINATED STATEWIDE APPROACH.

SO ALL DEPARTMENTS ACROSS THE STATE OF TEXAS, EVEN IF THEY HAVE THEIR OWN SYSTEM MUST ENTER ALL OF THE INFORMATION IN THE SYSTEM, ALONG WITH OTHER MAJOR MUNICIPALITIES, BECAUSE OF THE TYPE OF SYSTEM WE WERE PUTTING IN PLACE.

UM, SEVERAL OF US HAVE OTHER SYSTEMS OUTSIDE OF TEXAS HEALTH TRACE.

UM, OUR STAFF WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE CASE INVESTIGATION AND CONTACT TRACING.

SO EVEN WITH THE AUTOMATION THAT HAPPENED AS OF THIS WEEKEND, UM, OUR CONTACT TRACING STAFF WILL CONTINUE TO CALL CLIENTS TO ENSURE CASE INVESTIGATION AND PROCESS IS SUCCESSFUL AT THE EMERGENCY OPERATION COMMAND.

UM, WE HAVE SET UP A TESTING GROUP.

THIS GROUP ENSURES THAT ALL TESTING, SUCH AS COMMUNITY SITE TARGET CLUSTER HOP UP RESOURCES, FACILITY IN-HOME TESTING OCCURS.

UM, LAST WEEK AT OUR COMMUNITY SITE, WE TESTED ABOUT 2000 PEOPLE.

WE HAVE A CONTRACT WITH A COMPANY CALLED I'M AWARE TO ASSIST US WITH TESTING.

SO THEY ARE GOING TO ASSIST US.

THEY'RE GOING TO ASSIST US WITH POPUP TESTING FACILITY AND IN-HOME TESTING STAFF ARE IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING A MAP OF ALL TESTING FACILITIES IN AUSTIN AND TRAVIS COUNTY.

WE ARE SENDING OUT A SURVEY TODAY TO PROVIDERS TO GET THAT INFORMATION.

ONCE WE HAVE THAT INFORMATION, WE ARE GOING TO POPULATE IT AND IT WILL BE ON OUR WEBSITE.

OUR GOAL IS TO KEEP THAT SITE AS ACTIVE AS WE CAN THROUGHOUT THIS PROCESS, WE ARE COMMITTED TO HAVING A TESTING STRATEGY THAT IS FLEXIBLE AND RAPID RAPIDLY, AND IT WILL CHANGE TO MEET THE NEEDS OF OUR COMMUNITY.

SO AS WE MOVE ALONG, WE MAY HAVE TIMES WHERE WE ARE GOING TO HAVE TO MAKE CHANGES TO MEET THE DEMANDS IN THE COMMUNITY.

CURRENTLY, AS OF JULY 6TH, WE WILL HAVE THREE COMMUNITY SITES THAT WE ARE, UM, THAT WE WILL BE WORKING IN, UM, EVENTS, DOVE SPRINGS, AND IN THE ROMBERG COMMUNITY, THE WEEK OF JULY SIX, WITH OUR NURSING HOME IN LONGTERM CARE TO SUPPORT THE NURSING HOMES AND LONGTERM CARE FACILITIES WOULD SUPPORT.

AS YOU ALL MAY RECALL, MAY REMEMBER WE HAVE A TESTING RECOMMENDATIONS PLAN WITH THAT TESTING RECOMMENDATION PLAN AND ALLOWS US TO WORK VERY CLOSELY WITH THE NURSING HOME AND ALL LONGTERM CARE FACILITIES CURRENTLY.

UM, WE ARE PROVIDING, UM, UH, PROTECTIVE INFORMATION, UM, TO, UM, 10 LONGTERM CARE NURSING FACILITIES.

RIGHT NOW.

WE DON'T HAVE ANY STRIKE TEAMS THAT ARE ARE DEPLOYED.

UM, AS OF TODAY, WE ARE IN CONVERSATIONS WITH FACILITIES THAT AS THEY START TO SEE MORE CLUSTERS, WE WILL BE WORKING WITH THEM AND TO ASSESS THE NEED TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL STRIKE TEAMS. THIS JUNE 12TH, OUR STAFF HAVE ALSO ASSISTED WITH TESTING, UM, FACILITIES.

AND, UM, IN ADDITION TO TESTING THOSE FACILITIES, WE HAVE EITHER PROVIDED WILDS AND SWABBING ASSISTANCE TO SEVEN OF THOSE FACILITIES AND OTHERS.

WE HAVE COME IN TO PROVIDE THE TESTING EARLIER THIS MORNING.

YOU SHOULD HAVE RECEIVED A MEMO OF A SUMMARY OF ACTIONS TAKEN BY STAFF AND PARTNERS THIS MORNING TO ADDRESS EQUITY DURING THIS RESPONSE.

THIS IS THE FIRST MEMO PROVIDES A LIST OF SERVICES FROM COMMUNICATION OUTREACH AND DIRECT SERVICES TO THE LATIN X COMMUNITY.

WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PROCESS AND HAVE AN EVENT IN JULY FOR AFRICAN AMERICANS, AND THEN ALSO A COMMUNITIES OF COLOR EVENT.

I WILL NOW

[00:10:01]

TRANSITION THE PRESENTATION TO ADRIAN STERILE.

GOOD MORNING.

THANK YOU, DIRECTOR HAYDEN.

UM, TO, JUST TO PICK UP WHERE A DIRECTOR LEFT OFF, I'LL SHARE A FEW UPDATES ON THE ACTIVITIES OF THE SOCIAL SERVICE BRANCH.

UM, THE PRIORITY POPULATION SCREEN HAS BEEN WORKING CLOSELY WITH OTHER TASKS FORCES WITHIN THE EOC, AS WELL AS WITH THE JUST AND THE EQUITY OFFICE TO, UH, PUT TOGETHER SOME OF THE STRATEGIES FOR THE LATIN X POPULATIONS, AS WELL AS OTHER VULNERABLE POPULATIONS.

UM, AND SO COMMUNICATION, I'LL JUST GO OVER THE KEY POINTS OF THAT STRATEGY.

SO THE GOALS ARE ONE TO DESIGN, INTERVENTIONS AND SOLUTIONS THAT ARE DATA DRIVEN AND SOLVE FOR THE MOST VULNERABLE AND TO, TO ENSURE THAT EQUITY IS THE FOCUS IN ALL PHASES OF THE RESPONSE TO COVID-19, INCLUDING COMMUNICATION, TESTING, ACTIVE SURVEILLANCE AND RECOVERY.

AND SO WHEN WE LOOK AT OUR COMMUNICATION STRATEGY, AS STEPHANIE SAID, WE'RE, WE'RE MAKING SURE THAT WE'RE FOCUSING ON THE NEEDS OF OUR, UH, BILINGUAL POPULATIONS AT THIS POINT, PARTICULARLY THE SPANISH SPEAKING POPULATION, UM, WE'RE ENGAGING THREE, ONE, ONE TO ASSIST US WITH INTERPRETERS TO HELP FOLKS FILL UP, FILL OUT FORMS AND DIRECTLY TO RESOURCES.

WE'RE MAKING SURE THAT, UM, ALL OF OUR MEDIA AVAILABILITY AND OUR PSA ARE IN LANGUAGE IN SPANISH.

WE ARE, UM, SUPPORTING FOCUSED AD CAMPAIGNS IN SPANISH, ON SPANISH RADIO AND TELEVISION.

AND WE'RE ALSO USING SOCIAL MEDIA TO REACH THOSE POPULATIONS AS WELL, NOT ONLY THE STANDARD PLATFORMS, BUT THE MORE POPULAR MOBILE APP.

MMM.

WE WANT TO MAKE SURE THAT THIS PLAN ADDRESSES LANGUAGE BARRIERS AND THE DIGITAL DIVIDE.

UM, TO THAT END, THERE WILL BE A STRONG IN-PERSON OUTREACH COMPONENT.

UM, WE ARE STRATEGIZING BY ZIP CODE.

UM, AND RIGHT NOW OUR FOCUS IS ON TWO ONE, TWO THREE FOUR ONE OR TWO FOUR FOUR FOUR EIGHT FIVE THREE FIVE EIGHT AND SIX ZERO.

WE'RE REALLY TRYING TO BE CREATIVE AND USE OUR, UH, COMMUNITY RELATIONSHIPS, UM, SPECIALIZING AT, UH, REGIONALIZED SPECIAL GROCERY STORES OR ETHNIC MARKETS.

UM, WE'RE WORKING WITH OUR PLACES OF WORSHIP.

UM, WE'VE, UH, PRICED OUT A MAILER CAMPAIGN FOR MULTIFAMILY COMPLEXES AND APARTMENTS, UM, IN THAT, IN THOSE ZIP CODES WHERE REACHING OUT TO OUR PARENTS SUPPORT SPECIALISTS IN AUSTIN, DELL VALLEY MANDER, AND PFLUEGER ISD, UM, WE'RE GOING TO STRATEGIZE AND USE OUR COMMUNITY HEALTH WORKERS, NOT ONLY THOSE THAT ARE INTERNAL TO APA, BUT ALSO THOSE THAT ARE, UM, IN PLACES OF EMPLOYMENT WITH OUR COMMUNITY PARTNERS LIKE COMMUNITY CARE, DELL MED, UH, ONCE THE MODERN TUNNEL, UM, WE WANNA MAKE SURE THAT THIS STRATEGY IS ADA COMPLIANT.

UM, WE'VE THANKS TO, UH, BRIAN'S LEADERSHIP OUT OF THE EQUITY OFFICE.

WE WORKED WITH THE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, UH, DEPARTMENT TO PUT OUT SOME MESSAGING TO OUR BUSINESS PARTNERS ABOUT, UM, THE BARRIERS THAT THE ROPING OFF OF THE FRONT OF STORES MAY POSE TO PEOPLE WITH DIFFERENT LEVELS OF MOBILITY.

UM, WE WANT TO STRESS COMMUNITY, COMMUNITY EDUCATION.

SO AS THE MESSAGING COMES OUT FROM THE GES WE WANT FROM THE JOINT INFORMATION SYSTEM, WE WANT TO MAKE SURE THAT WE ARE LEVERAGING OUR RELATIONSHIPS IN COMMUNITY AND PUSHING THOSE MESSAGES OUT, USING ALL THE FORMS OF MEDIA AND STRATEGIES THAT I OUTLINED BEFORE.

AND THIS STRATEGY ALSO WANTS TO FOCUS ON COMMUNITY PREPAREDNESS AND MAKE SURE THAT OUR COMMUNITY UNDERSTANDS AND CAN ACCESS PPE.

WE'VE BEEN WORKING WITH THE EOC TO WORK WITH OUR NONPROFIT AND SOCIAL SERVICE PARTNERS TO MAKE THAT AVAILABLE.

UM, AS THE SUPPLIES PERMIT, WE'RE PROVIDING GUIDANCE TO DIFFERENT AGENCIES ON THE USE OF PPE AND HOW TO, UH, SOCIALLY DISTANCE EFFECTIVELY, UM, AND WE'RE WORKING WITH DIFFERENT, UH, BUSINESS SECTORS TO PROVIDE THEM GUIDANCE ON, BE OPENING WHEN THE ORDERS COME OUT, HOW DOES THAT TRANSLATE INTO THEIR, TO THEIR BUSINESS? SO WE'RE REALLY TRYING TO HAVE THAT BOOTS ON THE GROUND REACH AND ALL OF THE AREAS THAT OUR COMMUNITIES ARE TOUCHING.

MOVING ON TO HOMELESSNESS, I'LL GIVE A BRIEF UPDATE ON THE PROLOGIS ALL FOUR PRO LODGES ARE STILL OPERATIONAL AND AT CAPACITY WITH APPROXIMATELY 270 GUESTS INTEGRAL CARE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE ONSITE SERVICES AT ALL PRO LODGES, UM, DAK FRONT STEPS, SALVATION ARMY

[00:15:01]

COMMUNITIES FOR CUB FOR RECOVERY AND INTEGRAL CARE ARE ALL PROVIDING HOUSING FOCUS CASE MANAGEMENT SERVICES.

WE'RE REALLY TRYING TO MAKE SURE THAT WHEN ANYONE IS EXITED FROM THESE FACILITIES, THAT THEY HAVE A PLAN IN PLACE.

WE'RE ALSO WORKING WITH COMMUNITY CARE AND DELL MED TO CONTINUE THE FOCUS TESTING OF THE HOMELESS POPULATION, OPEN OUR SHELTERS AND IN OUR ENCAMPMENTS.

UM, BY NOW OVER 500 TESTS HAVE BEEN ADMINISTERED AND FOCUSED OPPORTUNITIES, UM, IN DOWNTOWN SHELTERS AND IN CAMP AREAS ACROSS THE CITY, WE CONTINUE TO WORK WITH AND OUR CONSULTANT HAGGERTY ON FEMA APPROVAL FOR REIMBURSEMENT OF ALL OF THE ELIGIBLE PROLOGUE EXPENSES EFFORTS TO PROVIDE HYGIENE RESOURCES FOR OUR UNSHELTERED NEIGHBORS CONTINUE.

UM, WE HAVE DEPLOYED MOBILE AND STATIONARY SHOWER TRAILERS, PORTABLE TOILETS, AND HAND-WASHING STATEMENT STATIONS.

WE CONTINUE TO CONTRACT WITH FAMILY CARE AND THE OTHER ONE'S FOUNDATION TO OPERATE OUR SHOWER RESOURCES.

UM, WE CONTINUE TO DISTRIBUTE MASKS, TOILET, PAPER, HYGIENE SUPPLIES, AND EDUCATIONAL FLYERS ALONG WITH, UH, BAGS OF FOOD EACH WEEK.

AND WE CONTINUE TO, UM, PUT UP HEALTH AND HYGIENE SIGNS AT EACH OF OUR MOBILE, UM, BASIC NEEDS STATIONS AROUND COMMUNITY, JUST TO REMIND OUR UNSHELTERED, UH, NEIGHBORS ABOUT HOW THEY CAN STAY SAFE IN THEIR ENVIRONMENT.

UM, WE CONTINUE TO PARTNER WITH THE CENTRAL TEXAS FOOD BANK TO PROVIDE THOSE SHELF STABLE MEALS FOR OUR UNSHELTERED HOMELESS, UH, NEIGHBORS.

AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE, UM, PREPARED MEALS THROUGH OUR CONTACT WITH CONTRACT RATHER WITH REVOLUTION FOODS.

AND THAT HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH THE END OF THE JEW OF JULY AS PART OF THE EATING APART TOGETHER INITIATIVE, APPROXIMATELY 3 MILLION IN FEDERAL CARES ACT FUNDING HAS BEEN ALLOCATED TO THE CITY AND WE'RE WORKING WITH OUR HOMELESS CONSULTANTS AS WELL AS OUR COMMUNITY PARTNERS ON A REQUEST FOR APPLICATIONS TO, UH, DISSEMINATE THOSE RESOURCES INTO COMMUNITY.

MOVING ON TO OUR CHILDCARE TASK FORCE.

WE CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUPPORT TO OUR CHILDCARE PROVIDERS.

UM, WE'RE IN PARTNERSHIP WITH THE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT DEPARTMENT AND NACD ON CHILDCARE SUPPORT FUNDS.

WE CONTINUE TO RESPOND TO QUESTIONS AND PROVIDE TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE TO PROVIDERS AND SUMMER CAMP OPERATORS.

WE CONTINUE TO WORK WITH CITY LEGAL ON, UM, CONTROL ORDERS AND DEVELOPING, AND THE UPDATING GUIDANCE BASED ON STATE AND LOCAL ORDERS.

WE'RE STILL WORKING ON OUR UNACCOMPANIED MINOR POLICY TO FIGURE IT OUT, UM, HOW WE CARE FOR CHILDREN WHOSE PARENTS MIGHT BE IN THE ISOLATION FACILITY AND DO NOT HAVE ACCESS TO OTHER FAMILY SUPPORT SERVICES DURING THAT TIME.

UM, AND I THINK, I THINK THAT IS ALL THAT I HAVE.

I'LL PAUSE THERE AND PASS IT ON TO DR.

ESCA OR IF THERE ARE ANY IMMEDIATE QUESTIONS, HAPPY TO ANSWER THOSE.

THANK YOU.

I THINK COUNCIL OR KITCHEN HAD A QUESTION.

DO WE WANT TO PULL THOSE QUESTIONS TO ME IN SPENCER? ARE YOU GOING TO GO AHEAD AND GO START? WHY DON'T YOU GO AHEAD.

OKAY.

I'M BACK FOR QUESTIONS.

OKAY.

THANK YOU, MAYOR AND COUNCIL.

UH, I'M GOING TO GIVE YOU A, UH, AN UPDATE OUR CURRENT COVID-19 SITUATION, IF YOU COULD TRANSITION TO THE NEXT SLIDE, PLEASE.

UH, SO THIS IS A GRAPH OF OUR NEW CONFIRMED CASES.

AGAIN, THE YELLOW IS SHOWING THE SEVEN DAY MEMORY AVERAGE.

UH, WE HAD ANOTHER RECORD OVER THE WEEKEND OF MORE THAN 700 CASES.

UH, YOU CAN SEE THAT, UH, OUR, OUR MOVING AVERAGE OF NEW CASES HAS INCREASED 372% SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE MONTH.

UH, SO THAT'S ROUGHLY FIVE TIMES THE CURRENT, UH, OR THE RANGE ON JUNE 1ST IS WHAT WE'RE EXPERIENCING NOW.

UH, SO YOU CAN SEE THE, THAT YELLOW LINE IS RIGHT ABOUT 400 CASES, UH, ON OUR SEVEN DAY MOVING AVERAGE, UH, AS COMPARED TO AROUND 60, UH, ON JUNE THE FIRST, NEXT SLIDE, PLEASE.

NOW THIS IS OUR WEEKLY CONFIRMED CASES.

AGAIN, JUST SHOWING YOU THE BREAKDOWN BY WEEK.

SO THE WEEK BEGINNING SIX 20 ENDING ON SIX 27, UH, RECORDED 200, 2,539

[00:20:01]

CASES COMPARED TO 1390 THAT WERE BEFORE.

UH, SO AGAIN, ALMOST DOUBLING LAST WEEK, UH, IN TERMS OF OUR NUMBER OF CASES, NEXT SLIDE, PLEASE.

UH, THIS IS AN UPDATE OF OUR GRAPH ON, UH, DOUBLING TIME.

SO BACK ON JUNE 7TH, WE HAD OUR BEST DOUBLING TIME AT MORE THAN 44 DAYS.

AND JUST TWO WEEKS LATER, UH, WE ARE CLOSE TO TWO WEEKS.

SO RIGHT NOW IT'S AT 16 DAYS, UH, WHICH IS A DRAMATIC CHANGE IN DIRECTION.

AND CERTAINLY THAT'S REFLECTED IN OUR NUMBER OF NEW CASES THAT WE'RE SAYING, NEXT SLIDE, PLEASE.

THIS IS A GRAPH OF OUR NEW ADMISSIONS.

AGAIN, THE YELLOW BEING A SEVEN DAY MOVING AVERAGE OF, OF NEW ADMISSIONS, UH, SINCE JUNE 1ST, WE'RE, WE'RE BOUT 10 NEW ADMISSIONS ON THAT SEVEN DAY MOVING AVERAGE, UH, WE'VE INCREASED THE MORE THAN 50.

SO WE'RE AT 52, UH, AS OF YESTERDAY.

SO AGAIN, A 400% INCREASE IN THE RATE OF NEW ADMISSIONS, UH, TO OUR MSA HOSPITALS SINCE JUNE 1ST, NEXT SLIDE, PLEASE.

THIS GRAPH IS, AGAIN, AN UPDATE SHOWING YOU ARE HOSPITALIZED INDIVIDUALS IN BLUE, THE ORANGE SHOWING YOU OUR ICU PATIENTS AND THE GRAY SHOW, AND THOSE WHO ARE USING A VENTILATOR, UH, AGAIN, SINCE JUNE 1ST, THE 214% INCREASE IN THE NUMBER OF HOSPITAL BEDS BEING UTILIZED FOR COVID-19 PATIENTS, UH, THEY, YOU CAN SEE THAT THE, UH, THE RATE OF INCREASE FOR OUR ICU AND OUR VENTILATORS HAS NOT BEEN QUITE AS STEEP, WHICH IS GOOD NEWS FOR US.

HOWEVER, UH, WHEN OUR HEARING, UH, FROM OUR HOSPITAL SYSTEMS, THAT INDIVIDUAL HOSPITALS ARE, UH, REACHING OCCUPANCY FOR, FOR ICU AND IS HAVING TO SPILL OVER INTO OTHER HOSPITALS.

SO HOSPITAL SYSTEMS HAVE IDENTIFIED HUBS, UH, OR MORE SPECIFIC FACILITIES WHERE, UH, COVID-19 PATIENTS ARE BEING CONCENTRATED, UH, AS THOSE FACILITIES REACHED CAPACITY IN THEIR SERVICE LINES, FOR THINGS LIKE ICU AND VENTILATORS, THEY'RE STARTING TO UTILIZE OTHER FACILITIES.

UH, SO AGAIN, WE, WE HAVE PLENTY OF CAPACITY RIGHT NOW, UH, BUT THESE ARE ADDITIONAL SIGNS THAT WE ARE BEGINNING TO SEEING ADDITIONAL STRESS IN OUR HEALTHCARE SYSTEM.

UH, YOU KNOW, AGAIN, WHEN WE ESTIMATED 1500 COVEN BEDS AVAILABLE, UH, IN THE FIVE COUNTY MSA OR AT ABOUT 350 NOW, SO THERE'S A THERE'S ROOM RIGHT NOW.

AND I BRING THIS UP BECAUSE WE HAVE FOLKS WHO ARE PUTTING OFF CARE, WHO ARE AVOIDING HOSPITALS FOR URGENT CARE AND EMERGENCY CARE, AND THEY DON'T NEED TO DO THAT AT THIS STAGE.

UH, THERE'S CAPACITY AT THOSE HOSPITALS, THEY CAN BE SEEN IN AN ECONOMIC, THEY CAN BE ADMITTED DATE MEAN TO THERE'S ROOM.

UH, BUT THIS IS A LEARNING FOR US THAT TWO OR THREE OR FOUR WEEKS DOWN THE ROAD, WE MAY BE IN A MUCH DIFFERENT SITUATION, WHICH IS WHY WE ARE CONTINUING TO SIGN THE SOUND, THE ALARM, UH, TO THE PUBLIC IN RELATION TO THOSE PROTECTIVE ACTIONS THAT ARE NEEDED RIGHT NOW TO FLATTEN THIS CURVE AGAIN.

NEXT SLIDE, PLEASE.

UH, THIS IS AN UPDATE OF OUR GRAPH, UH, ON DEMOGRAPHICS, UH, RELATED TO HOSPITALIZATIONS IN THE LAST WEEK.

UH, SO YOU CAN SEE THE, UH, THE NUMBERS ON THE RIGHT HAND SIDE OF, UH, OF THE IMAGE INDICATE THE NUMBERS FROM THE LAST WEEK.

AS YOU CAN SEE THAT OUR HISPANIC POPULATION, UH, REPRESENTATION IN THE HOSPITALS, UH, IN OUR MSA HAVE, UH, MAINTAINED A STEADINESS AT AROUND 65% ARE WHITE, NON HISPANIC AS AROUND A 24.

SO RELATIVELY STEADY OR AFRICAN AMERICAN ALSO STEADY AT AROUND 8%.

SO NOT A LOT WOULD CHANGE IS IN TERMS OF THE MAKEUP OF, OF THESE, UH, THESE INDIVIDUAL, UH, UH, RACES AND ETHNICITIES, UH, IN TERMS OF THEIR PERCENTAGE OF, OF HOSPITAL AS INDIVIDUALS.

AGAIN, THIS INDICATES TO US A SUSTAINING, UH, PROBLEM IN OUR COMMUNITY AS IT RELATES TO DISEASE TRANSMISSION IN OUR, UH, OUR LATINO COMMUNITY.

AND THIS IS WHY AS STEPHANIE AND ADRIAN BOTH POINTED OUT, UH, THESE TARGETED ONGOING EFFORTS TO INCREASE THE AWARENESS, INCREASED THE PROTECTION IN THESE COMMUNITIES SO THAT WE CAN, WE CAN BEND THAT CURVE AS WELL.

NEXT SLIDE, PLEASE.

NOW, THIS GRAPH IS SHOWING YOU A WEEKLY HOSPITALIZATIONS BY AGE GROUP.

I'M GOING TO POINT OUT A COUPLE OF THINGS HERE.

THEY WERE BLUE AND THE GREEN LINES REPRESENT OUR 50 TO 59 AND 60 TO 69 AGE GROUP.

UH, YOU CAN SEE THAT BOTH OF THEM ARE, ARE NEAR 20%.

UH, THEY YELLOW AND THE BLUE, THE LIGHT BLUE, AND THEY, UH, THE YELLOW ARE REPRESENTING OUR 20 TO 29 AND 30 TO 39 AGE, UH, AGE GROUP.

UH, THOSE NUMBERS HAVE COME DOWN A LITTLE BIT SINCE LAST WEEK,

[00:25:01]

UH, BUT AGAIN, BECAUSE THE, THEY, THE HOSPITALIZATION RATE FOR THOSE GROUPS ARE MUCH LOWER THAN THE 50 TO 59 AND 60 TO 69 AGE GROUP.

IT IS FURTHER EVIDENCE THAT, UH, THE DISEASE SPREAD IS PRIMARILY HAPPENING RIGHT NOW IN THAT 20 TO 40 YEAR OLD GROUP.

UH, SO AGAIN, UM, WE NEED, WE NEED THOSE INDIVIDUALS TO TAKE MORE PRECAUTIONS, TO BE MORE AWARE, BECAUSE AS THE NUMBERS INCREASE, UH, TRANSMISSION IN THAT AGE GROUP, SO WILL THE HOSPITALIZATIONS INCREASE, UH, AND THIS IS NOT A BENIGN DISEASE.

UH, THIS IS NOT AS SIMPLE, COLD, UH, OR, OR FLU FOR, FOR MANY FOLKS, UH, FOR MANY FOLKS THAT LEADS TO HOSPITALIZATION AND SOMETIMES IRREVERSIBLE DAMAGE THAT'S DONE TO THESE INDIVIDUALS.

UH, SO WE'VE TALKED ABOUT DEATHS BEFORE, BUT IT'S IMPORTANT TO UNDERSTAND THAT EVEN AMONGST THOSE WHO SURVIVE, THEY CAN HAVE LIFELONG IMPACTS, UH, ON THEIR NORMAL DAY TO DAY LIFE.

AND THAT'S, THAT'S CERTAINLY NOT SUBSTANTIAL AS WELL.

AND WE NEED PEOPLE TO BE AWARE OF THAT.

NEXT SLIDE, PLEASE.

UH, SO THIS GRAPH THAT I WAS SHOWING YOU FIRST RELATED TO TESTING IS JUST OUR AUSTIN PUBLIC HEALTH, UH, PUBLIC ENROLLMENT, UH, TESTING.

UH, SO YOU CAN SEND, WE HAVE RESULTS BACK ON THE ONE TO 2,500 INDIVIDUALS.

THERE'S ACTUALLY MORE THAN 20,000 AND TESTED THROUGH OUR PUBLIC ENROLLMENT LAST WEEK.

UH, SOME OF THOSE TESTS ARE STILL AWAITING RESULTS OF THE TESTS WE HAVE RIGHT NOW.

UH, WE HAVE A POSITIVE RATE OF 9.6%.

NOW YOU CAN SEE THE BREAKDOWN BY ETHNICITY, 5.9% FOR ASIANS, UH, 6.7% FOR WHITE, HISPANIC, 11.7% FOR AFRICAN AMERICAN AND 15.2% FOR OUR HISPANIC POPULATION THROUGH OUR AUSTIN PUBLIC HEALTH TESTING.

AGAIN, OUR GOAL IS TO BE LESS THAN 10% OVERALL IN EACH CATEGORY, WHICH TELLS US THAT WE NEED TO TEST MORE AFRICAN AMERICANS.

WE NEED TO TEST MORE HISPANICS IN OUR COMMUNITY SO THAT WE CAN ENSURE THAT WE HAVE ADEQUATE, UH, SURVEILLANCE IN THOSE GROUPS AND TO BRING DOWN THAT POSITIVITY RATE.

UH, SO AGAIN, PART OF THE EFFORT THAT DIRECTOR HAYDEN AND THE ADRIAN SPOKE ABOUT BEFORE WAS TO EDUCATE FOLKS ABOUT PREVENTION, AS WELL AS TO ENSURE THAT THEY'RE AWARE OF HOW TO GET TESTED IF THEY NEED IT JUST LESS THAN 5%.

SO AGAIN, LESS THAN 10%, LESS THAN 5%.

SO THE, THE, THE RANGE THAT WE'RE LOOKING FOR IS THAT FIVE TO 10% FOR POSITIVITY RATES, UM, SO THAT WE CAN ENSURE THAT WE'RE, WE'RE BALLING TESTING.

WE WOULD LOVE TO WORK TO BE LOWER THAN THAT.

UH, BUT RIGHT NOW, IF WE CAN GET EACH OF THOSE DEMOGRAPHICS TO UNDER 10%, WE'LL BE IN MUCH BETTER SHAPE TO CONTROL THIS NEXT SLIDE, PLEASE.

UH, SO WE HAVE ASKED OUR PARTNERS IN THE COMMUNITY THAT ARE DOING THE TESTING, UH, TO, TO PROVIDE DATA TO US.

AND LAST WEEK WE STARTED RECEIVING THAT INFORMATION.

UM, SOME OF THAT INFORMATION IN SUCH A WAY THAT IT NEEDS TO BE CLEANED UP A LITTLE BIT IN RELATION TO THE CASES, PARTICULARLY THE, UH, THE NEGATIVE TESTS.

SO WHAT I'M SHOWING YOU HERE IS FOR THE TEST THAT WE HAVE A POSITIVE RESULT ON THIS IS A BREAKDOWN BY RACE AND ETHNICITY.

NOW YOU CAN SEE THAT 39, ALMOST 40% OF THOSE RESULTS ARE, ARE UNKNOWN AS FAR AS THE RACE OR ETHNICITY.

UH, AND THAT'S DUE TO A NUMBER OF FACTORS.

UH, SOMETIMES PEOPLE DO NOT SHARE THEIR RACE OR ETHNICITY IN THE TESTING PROCESS.

SOMETIMES THE LAB RESULTS THAT WE RECEIVE IN DO NOT HAVE A RACE OR ETHNICITY ASSIGNED TO IT.

UH, SO WE'RE WORKING THROUGH THOSE ISSUES TO TRY TO CLEAN THAT UP.

I WILL SAY THAT LOOKING AT OUR AUSTIN PUBLIC HEALTH TESTING, THAT A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THOSE WHO INITIALLY IDENTIFIED AS, AS, UH, UNKNOWN OR REFUSE TO ANSWER, UH, ARE FROM OUR LATIN X COMMUNITY NOW.

SO WE ARE TRYING TO CLEAN UP THAT DATA, BUT ALSO WANT TO ENCOURAGE FOLKS THAT WHEN THEY'RE SIGNING UP FOR TESTING, THAT THEY SHARE THAT INFORMATION WITH US REGARDING RACE AND ETHNICITY.

THAT'S VERY, VERY HELPFUL FOR US TO MAKE POLICY DECISIONS WHEN WE HAVE ACCURATE INFORMATION.

AND THAT INCLUDES THAT RACE AND ETHNICITY.

NOW, YOU CAN SEE THAT OF THE INDIVIDUALS WHO IDENTIFY A RACE OR ETHNICITY THAT 32.7% IDENTIFY AS HISPANIC, UH, 23% WHITE, NON HISPANIC, UH, 4.2% AFRICAN AMERICAN AND ZERO POINT PERCENT, UH, ASIAN.

UH, SO AGAIN, THIS IS A DENOMINATOR OF ALL THE POSITIVE NUMBERS, UH, FOR THE LAST WEEK BASED ON THAT DATA FEED FROM OUR PARTNERS.

AND AGAIN, WE'RE GRATEFUL FOR, FOR THEM SHARING THAT INFORMATION LATER THIS WEEK, WE'RE HELPFUL TO HAVE A WEEK BY WEEK TREND BASED UPON RACE AND ETHNICITY, UH, FOR THIS LARGER

[00:30:01]

DATA SET.

UH, WHEN WE LOOK AT THE NUMBERS OF TESTING DONE LAST WEEK, THAT WE'LL BE LOOKING AT OUR BIG THREE PARTNERS, UH, THAT'S, UH, AUSTIN, PUBLIC HEALTH, COMMUNITY CARE, AND AUSTIN REGIONAL CLINIC.

UH, THAT NUMBER IS AROUND 11,000.

SO THAT'S, THAT'S JUST THOSE THREE ENTITIES.

WE HAVE A NUMBER OF OTHER ENTITIES WHO ARE ALSO DOING TESTING.

SO THAT NUMBER IS GOING TO BE HIGHER AGAIN, AS WE HAVE THAT RELIABLE DATA FEED FROM ALL OF THESE, UH, TESTING ENTITIES, WE'LL BE ABLE TO PROVIDE MORE INFORMATION, MORE ACCURATE INFORMATION AS IT RELATES TO, UH, THE NUMBERS OF TESTS BEING DONE, AS WELL AS THE COMMUNITY WIDE POSITIVITY RATE.

UH, WHEN WE LOOK AT, UH, SOME NATIONAL DATABASES THAT HAVE SOME AUTOMATED FEEDS OF THIS INFORMATION FROM THE MAJOR LABS THAT INDICATES TO, TO US THAT, UH, IT REFLECTS THAT AUSTIN AND TRAVIS COUNTY HAVE A POSITIVITY RATE OF ABOUT 22 TO 23%, UH, WHICH IS A NUMBER WHICH WAS INDICATED BY THE WHITE HOUSE LAST WEEK, IN TERMS OF A VERY HIGH POSITIVITY RATE IN TRAVIS COUNTY.

I WILL SAY THAT TWO OF THE MAJOR LABS THAT WE USE, WHICH IS SEEPING OUT AT AIT ARE NOT PART OF THAT DATA FEED.

UH, SO THOSE NUMBERS MAY BE ARTIFICIALLY HIGH, BUT AGAIN, AS WE GET THAT INFORMATION TOGETHER, WE'LL REPORT THAT BASED UPON THE DATA THAT WE HAVE IN HAND.

I DO ALSO WANT TO POINT OUT THAT THAT SAME DATABASE INDICATES THAT SURROUNDING COUNTIES I HAVE SIMILAR OR HIGHER, UH, POSITIVITY RATES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HAZE COUNTY, WHICH WAS, UH, AROUND 15%, UH, THE LAST, UH, THE LAST CHECK THIS MORNING, UH, THE HIGHEST BANK CALDWELL COUNTY, WELL, THE POSITIVITY RATE OF MORE THAN 33%.

UH, SO AGAIN, THIS IS NOT JUST A METRO ISSUE.

THIS IS A STATEWIDE ISSUE, AND WE HAVE TO CONTINUE TO TRY TO OPERATE AT LEAST AS AN MSA, BECAUSE THIS IS AFFECTING ALL OF US.

IT DOESN'T MATTER WHERE YOU LIVE, IT'S AFFECTING ALL OF US AND THE MESSAGE NEEDS TO BE THE SAME, AND IT NEEDS ME TO ECHO AROUND OUR COMMUNITY.

NEXT SLIDE, PLEASE.

NOW, THIS IS A BREAKDOWN OF THAT SAME DATA SET, UH, WHICH INCLUDES APH COMMUNITY CARE AND OUR OTHER PARTNERS.

UH, SO WE'LL LOOK AT, UH, THE PERS THE PERCENTAGE OF POSITIVE CASES BY AGE.

AGAIN, YOU CAN SEE THIS WEEK THAT, UH, THE MAJORITY OF CASES ARE IN THAT 20 TO 29 AND 30 TO 39 AGE GROUP.

NOW, YOU CAN ALSO SAY THAT THAT 40 TO 49 AGE GROUP, UH, HAS MORE THAN 15% AS WELL.

UM, SO THIS IS WHERE OUR, OUR TARGET NEEDS TO BE AS FAR AS, AS MESSAGING AND OUTREACH IS TO ENSURE THAT, UH, THAT THIS GROUP IS RECEIVING THE MESSAGE AND TAKING APPROPRIATE PRECAUTIONS.

I'M PLEASED TO SEE THAT 50 AND OLDER IS A MUCH LOWER RATE, UH, OR, UH, CONSTANT MUCH LESS OF A, UH, OF THE POSITIVE NUMBERS, UH, BECAUSE THOSE ARE THE ONES WHO ARE BOTH GOING TO HAVE A HIGHER RATE OF HOSPITALIZATION AND A HIGHER RATE OF DEATH.

UH, SO WE NEED THOSE FOLKS IN PARTICULAR TO BE PROTECTIVE, TO STAY HOME, UNLESS THEY ABSOLUTELY NEED TO GO OUT.

UH, WE NEED THE REST OF THE FOLKS, PARTICULARLY THOSE IN THE 20 TO 50 AGE GROUP TO BE PROTECTIVE AS WELL, PARTICULARLY IF THEY LIVE IN A HOUSEHOLD WITH, WITH INDIVIDUALS WHO ARE IN THE OLDER GROUP OR IN OTHER VULNERABLE, UH, GROUPS WITHIN THEIR, IN THEIR HOUSEHOLD.

AGAIN, WE HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WORK AS A COMMUNITY TO PROTECT THE COMMUNITY AS A, AS CITY MANAGER CROPS THAT EARLIER, NEXT SLIDE, PLEASE.

NOW, THIS IS A SNAPSHOT OF A POSITIVE TEST IN THE LAST WEEK.

UH, SO AGAIN, WE CAN SEE THAT (786) 607-8745 (787) 417-8748 AND SEVEN EIGHT SEVEN ZERO TWO, WHERE OUR TOP FIVE FOR THE PAST WEEK.

UM, AGAIN, WE ARE WORKING ON A DASHBOARD TO ENHANCE THE, THE TESTING INFORMATION, AS STEPHANIE MENTIONED EARLIER, I BELIEVE, AND WE HOPE TO HAVE SOME OF THIS INFORMATION, UH, FRONT FACING IN ADDITION TO THE, THE MAP THAT WE CURRENTLY HAVE.

UH, SO WE ARE STILL WORKING ON THAT AND HOPEFULLY I WILL HAVE THAT IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

NEXT SLIDE, PLEASE.

THIS IS AN UPDATE IN RELATION TO OUR NURSING HOME AND LONGTERM CARE FACILITY TESTING, WHICH INCLUDES ASSISTED LIVING FACILITIES.

UH, YOU CAN SEE THAT WE HAVE, UH, FIVE, SIX FACILITIES THAT, UH, SORRY, I CAN'T COUNT SEVEN FACILITIES THAT ARE GRAYED OUT, WHICH MEANS, UH, IF THEY HAVE NO ADDITIONAL CASES NEXT WEEK, THAT THEY WILL COME OFF THE ACTIVE CLUSTER LISTS.

UH, UNFORTUNATELY YOU CAN SEE THAT WE HAVE HAD, UH, 30 CASES IN THESE FACILITIES OVER THE PAST WEEK.

UH, SO MANY OF THOSE ARE OUR NEW FACILITIES OR CASES OF NEW FACILITIES.

AND, UH, THAT HAS BEEN THE RESULT OF AN INITIAL

[00:35:01]

POSITIVE TEST, WHICH HAS LED TO A LARGER SCALE TESTING AT THOSE FACILITIES.

NOW, AS DIRECTOR HAYDEN SAID EARLIER, WE HAVE A TASK FORCE WHO HAS, UH, WHOSE ONLY JOB IS TO, UH, TO MANAGE THESE FACILITIES, IDENTIFY WHERE CLUSTERS ARE HAPPENING AND SENDING OUT RESOURCES TO SUPPORT, INCLUDING TESTING PPE AND POTENTIALLY THE NEED FOR A NURSING HOME STRIKE TEAMS, IF IT BECOMES NECESSARY.

UH, SO WE'LL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THAT UPDATE TO COUNCIL.

AND, UH, UH, WE'RE ALSO WORKING ON A DASHBOARD TO AUTOMATE SOME OF THIS INFORMATION.

UH, SOME OF IT IS PUBLIC FACING ON A ONGOING NEXT SLIDE, PLEASE.

UH, SO I'VE GOT A COUPLE OF SLIDES TALKING ABOUT SOME BIG PICTURE ISSUES.

AND AS A, AS A CITY MANAGER, CRONK MENTIONED EARLIER, UH, WE HAVE BEEN, WE'VE BEEN SPRINTING FOR QUITE SOME TIME, UH, AND WE HAVE TO ENSURE THAT, THAT THE STRATEGY THAT WE HAVE IN PLACE AND THAT WAY ARE MOVING TO OVER THE SUMMER ARE GOING TO BE SUSTAINABLE FOR A LONG DURATION OF TIME.

WE CERTAINLY EXPECT TO, WE HAVEN'T HAVE AT LEAST ANOTHER YEAR TO DEAL WITH THIS.

AND, UH, AND IN PARTICULAR, UNTIL WE HAVE AN EFFECTIVE VACCINE, WHICH HAS BEEN IDENTIFIED MASS PRODUCED AND AVAILABLE TO THE PUBLIC, UH, SO PART OF THAT IS, IS, UH, TESTING PRIVATIZATION.

UH, NOW I DID HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY YESTERDAY TO MEET WITH A, UH, WHITE HOUSE CORONAVIRUS TASK FORCE, UH, INCLUDING, UH, AMBASSADOR, UH, BURKS, AS WELL AS COMMISSIONER HELLER, STAT, UH, DR.

AND MY COLLEAGUES FROM AROUND THE STATE.

AND WE HAD SOME AGREEMENT ON THE FACT THAT RIGHT NOW THE DISEASE IS SPREADING SO QUICKLY IN AN UNCONTROLLED FASHION, THAT WE SIMPLY CANNOT CONTINUE TO USE THINGS THE WAY WE, WE HAVE BEEN DOING THEM.

AND SO THAT INVOLVES PRIORITIZING, AND THAT INVOLVES PRIORITIZING TESTING.

UM, PART OF THAT IS BECAUSE OF, UH, LIMITATIONS ON THE ABILITY TO COLLECT ENOUGH TESTS, BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY, THE ABILITY OF THE LABS TO TURN THOSE TESTS AROUND IN A TIMELY FASHION.

SO WHAT WE'RE FACING RIGHT NOW, AS I MENTIONED A LITTLE BIT LAST WEEK, IS THAT WE ARE RECEIVING POSITIVE TEST BACK ON INDIVIDUALS WHO WERE TESTED FIVE OR SEVEN, OR SOMETIMES LONGER THAN THAT DAYS AGO.

SO IF IT'S FIVE OR SEVEN DAYS AFTER THE TEST WAS DONE AND IT'S 10 OR 14 DAYS AFTER THE PERSON BECAME SYMPTOMATIC.

SO INITIATING CASE INVESTIGATION AND CONTACT TRACING FOR THOSE INDIVIDUALS IS A FUTILE EFFORT BECAUSE THEY'RE INFECTIVITY PERIODS OVER THE INDIVIDUALS WHO HAD BEEN EXPOSED ARE LIKELY ALREADY SYMPTOMATIC.

SO RIGHT NOW WE'RE PRIORITIZING A CASE INVESTIGATION AND CONTACT TRACING, UH, FOR THOSE WHO, WHO HAVE BEEN SICK MORE RECENTLY, IN ADDITION TO THAT, WE ARE TESTING, WE ARE HAVING TO CHANGE OUR TESTING PRIORITIES.

SO THAT INCLUDES ENSURING THAT PEOPLE WHO ARE SYMPTOMATIC GET TESTED FOR US TO GET TESTED QUICKLY.

UH, THOSE WHO LIVE IN CONGREGATE SETTINGS, THOSE WHO ARE A PART OF CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE, UH, AND THOSE IN OUR VULNERABLE POPULATIONS, THESE STILL ARE OUR PRIORITIES.

BUT WHAT THIS MEANS IS THAT WE ARE NOT GOING TO BE ABLE TO, UH, TEST THROUGH AUSTIN PUBLIC HEALTH AND COMMUNITY CARE.

UH, THOSE WHO ARE ASYMPTOMATIC, UH, WE SIMPLY DO NOT HAVE THE CAPACITY TO PROVIDE THOSE TESTS AND ENSURE ADEQUATE TURNAROUND TIMES FOR THOSE WHO ARE AT THE HIGHEST RISK OR BEING POSITIVE.

AND THAT'S THE, THE WEST THERE.

UH, WE ARE ALSO IN THE PROCESS OF DISCUSSING WITH OTHER PARTNERS ABOUT TRANSITIONING SOME OF THE TESTING, MORE OF THE TESTING RESPONSIBILITY, UH, TO PRIVATE PARTNERS, AS DIRECTOR HAYDEN MENTIONED EARLIER, WE HAVE A CONTRACT WITH I'M AWARE, AND WE'RE IN THE PROCESS NOW OF WORKING WITH OUR CONSULTANTS AT HAGGERTY, UH, TO DISCUSS TRANSITIONING MORE OF THE TESTING, UH, NON-GOVERNMENTAL ENTITIES, SO THAT WE CAN WAKE AND FOCUS PUBLIC HEALTH AND PUBLIC RESOURCES IN OTHER AREAS WHERE ONLY WE CAN PROVIDE THOSE SERVICES.

UH, AS I SAID BEFORE, WERE ALSO HAVING TO PRIORITIZE AND WORK ON A STRUCTURE TO PRIORITIZE THE CASE INVESTIGATION AND CONTACT TRACING.

UH, SO LET ME EXPLAIN A LITTLE BIT ABOUT THIS CASE INVESTIGATION, CONTACT TRACING AS IS AT THE HEART OF, OF PUBLIC HEALTH INTERVENTION AND DISEASE INVESTIGATION.

BUT WHEN WE HAVE WIDESPREAD UNCONTROLLED DISEASE TRANSMISSION IN THE COMMUNITY AT THE RATE THAT WE'RE HAVING IT NOW, IT BECOMES LESS USEFUL FOR SOME OF THE REASONS I MENTIONED BEFORE.

UM, SO WE REALLY DO NEED TO PRIORITIZE THOSE EFFORTS WHERE WE CAN BE MOST IMPACTFUL IN THOSE AREAS THAT ARE BEING HARDER HIT OR WHERE THE CONSEQUENCES ARE MORE DIRE SUCH AS A NURSING HOMES OR ASSISTED LIVING FACILITIES.

AND CERTAINLY OUR MEMBERS WHO, UH, HAD ANY MORE RECENT ONSET OF ILLNESS, SO THAT

[00:40:01]

IF WE INTERVENE, IF WE CONTACT THEM AND DO THEIR CONTACT TRACING, WE HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF CAPTURING THOSE WHO STILL WOULD BE AT RISK FOR SPREADING OUTSIDE IN THE COMMUNITY.

UM, SO AGAIN, UH, YOU KNOW, WE WERE HAVING TO GO THROUGH A PRIVATIZATION PROCESS.

THIS IS NOT JUST AUSTIN.

THIS IS EVERY JURISDICTION IN THE STATE OF TEXAS.

AND WE'VE HAD REGULAR COMMUNICATIONS WITH OUR PARTNERS AT THE MAJOR METROPOLITAN, UH, PUBLIC HEALTH DEPARTMENTS.

AND WE ARE HAVING, THEY'RE HAVING THE SAME DISCUSSION IN THEIR JURISDICTIONS.

THIS IS JUST WHERE WE ARE RIGHT NOW IN THIS PANDEMIC.

ONE OTHER THING THAT, UH, THAT WE INTEND TO ADD ONTO THIS CONVERSATION IS TO ENGAGE THE INDIVIDUALS THEMSELVES WHO ARE POSITIVE IN HELPING US NOTIFY THEIR CONTACTS.

UH, RIGHT NOW THEY'RE ASKED TO PROVIDE THAT INFORMATION.

AND UNFORTUNATELY, UH, IT'S BECOMING MORE COMMON THAT PEOPLE DO NOT WANT TO PROVIDE PUBLIC HEALTH IN AUSTIN AND ACROSS THE STATE INFORMATION ABOUT THEIR CONTEXTS, WHERE THEY'VE BEEN.

UH, SO I THINK IT'S IMPORTANT THAT WE ENGAGE THEM.

IF THEY'RE NOT COMFORTABLE SHARING THAT INFORMATION WITH US, WE NEED THEM TO SHARE IT WITH THEIR CONTACTS SO THAT WE CAN, AGAIN, INFORM THOSE INDIVIDUALS WHO ARE AT RISK FOR HAVING CONTRACTED COVID-19, SO THEY CAN STAY HOME, AVOID INFECTING OTHERS AND GET TESTED.

UH, SO THIS DOES, THIS DOES, UH, RELY ON A COMMUNITY EFFORT AND IT REALLY REQUIRES ALL OF US TO DO THE THINGS WE NEED TO DO TO GET THIS UNDER CONTROL, UH, SO THAT WE CAN HAVE, UH, PROTECTION OF PUBLIC HEALTH AND PROTECTION OF OUR ECONOMY AS WELL.

UH, WE'RE WORKING ON ENHANCING THE MESSAGING AT THE TIME OF TESTING, UH, AS STEPHANIE SAID EARLIER, PROVIDING, UH, MASKS AND, UH, AND HOPEFULLY SOME OTHER EQUIPMENT AT THE TIME OF TESTING, SO THAT FOLKS CAN PROTECT THEMSELVES AT HOME, CONTINUING TO ADVOCATE FOR THE UTILIZATION OF ISOLATION FACILITIES, UH, SO THAT FOLKS CAN SEPARATE THEMSELVES FROM THEIR FAMILIES TO PREVENT THAT HOUSEHOLD SPREAD, WHICH WE KNOW IS A MAJOR CONTRIBUTOR RIGHT NOW TO THE SPREAD OF DISEASE.

AND SO AGAIN, WE'VE GOT TO OPTIMIZE OUR USE OF RESOURCES SO THAT THEY CAN BE MOST IMPACTED RIGHT NOW.

NEXT SLIDE, PLEASE.

SO IN LOOKING AT OUR NEEDS, AND AGAIN, THIS IS MAYBE A PART OF A CONVERSATION THAT, THAT, UH, THAT I HAD WITH AMBASSADOR BURKES, AS WELL AS COMMISSIONER HELLER STEAD, AND THE REST OF THE TEAM IS IT REALLY DO NEED TO AN INTEGRATED ELECTRONIC LAB RECORDING SYSTEM.

I SPOKE LAST WEEK ON THE FACT THAT WE'RE STILL RELYING ON FAXES TO BRING INFORMATION IN REGARDING POSITIVE RESULTS, THAT DIDN'T HAVE TO BE TRANSITIONED TO A DIGITAL FORMAT IN ORDER TO INITIATE THAT PROCESS.

UH, THIS IS NOT ACCEPTABLE, AND WE NEED TO MOVE SWIFTLY TO HAVE A STATEWIDE COMPREHENSIVE SYSTEM THAT'S INTEGRATED WITH LOCAL HEALTH DEPARTMENTS, UH, TO ACHIEVE THIS MISSION.

UH, WE'VE GOT AN IMPROVED TESTING CAPACITY AND LAB TURNAROUND TIMES, AND WE CERTAINLY HAD THAT CONVERSATION WITH THE STATE AS WELL.

OUR LAB PARTNERS ARE WORKING ON INCREASING TESTING.

UH, WE, UH, WE ALSO HAD A DISCUSSION YESTERDAY REGARDING THE IMPORTANCE OF, OF POOL TESTING, AS WE LOOKED PARTICULARLY TOWARDS THE FALL AND THE OPENING OF SCHOOLS, WE NEED TO HAVE THE ABILITY TO TEST HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF PEOPLE A DAY, UH, POTENTIALLY IN OUR OWN JURISDICTION TO, UH, TO ENSURE THAT AS WE OPEN SCHOOLS, WE CAN DO SO SAFELY.

UH, SO I BELIEVE THIS THING IS A PRIORITY FOR THE WHITE HOUSE, AND THAT WAS CERTAINLY INDICATED YESTERDAY IN THAT MEETING.

UM, WE NEED TO INTEGRATE LOCAL AND STATE PLATFORMS, UH, FOR CONTACT TRACING IN CASE INVESTIGATION.

UH, EACH OF THE LOCAL HEALTH DEPARTMENTS HAVE A PLATFORM.

OURS IS SALESFORCE.

THE STATE HAS A PLATFORM CALLED TEXAS HEALTH, TRACE THOSE TWO SYSTEMS. DON'T TALK TO ONE ANOTHER.

UH, AND WE ARE WORKING WITH THE STATE, UH, YOU KNOW, I ENGAGE WITH, UH, COMMISSIONER HELLER'S DAD AND OTHERS, UH, TO HAVE THAT DISCUSSION.

IS IT POSSIBLE FOR US TO INTEGRATE THESE TWO THINGS TOGETHER TO REALLY BROADEN THE EFFICACY OF OUR EFFORTS? UM, AND WE'RE HOPEFUL THAT WE CAN HAVE A ONGOING CONVERSATION ABOUT THAT AND REALLY, UH, BUILDING THAT EFFICACY OF THAT SYSTEM, UH, SO THAT WE HAVE CROSS JURISDICTIONAL, UH, ACROSS OUR SOCIAL SYSTEM, WHICH IS, WHICH IS FUNCTIONAL AND ROBUST, UH, IN, IN ENHANCE THE MESSAGING TO OUR TEAMS UP THROUGH OUR, OUR INDIVIDUALS IN THE AGE OF 40 TO 49, UH, SO THAT WE CAN WAKE AND FLATTEN THE CURVE JUST AMONGST THOSE GROUPS WHERE WE'RE SEEING THE MOST SPREAD RIGHT NOW, UH, WHEN WE'VE SPOKEN ABOUT FEDERAL AND STATE SUPPORT FOR PAID SICK LEAVE TO REMOVE THE DISINCENTIVES FROM, FROM GOING TO WORK WHEN YOU'RE SICK, BECAUSE YOU NEED TO HAVE THAT PAYCHECK TO SUPPORT YOUR FAMILY.

UH, WE NEED FEDERAL AND STATE SUPPORT FOR THE DISTRIBUTION OF MASS PUBLICLY SO THAT WE CAN ASSURE THAT EVERY MEMBER

[00:45:01]

OF OUR COMMUNITY HAS BEEN PROTECTIVE EQUIPMENT, NOT ONLY WHEN THEY GO TO WORK, BUT EVEN INSIDE THEIR HOUSEHOLD NOW, PARTICULARLY WHEN INDIVIDUALS ARE ILL.

UH, AND WE REALLY NEED A REASSESSMENT OF, OF LONGTERM STRATEGY AT THE STATE LOCAL AND FEDERAL LEVEL BASED UPON THE RESOURCES THAT WE HAVE, AGAIN, AS SPENCER SAID, THIS IS A MARATHON, AND WE NEED TO BETTER UNDERSTAND WHAT THAT, WHAT THAT, THAT POOL OF MONEY IS GOING TO LOOK LIKE GOING FORWARD.

WE HAVE SOME INFORMATION REGARDING THE END OF 2020, BUT BEYOND THAT, AS IN QUESTION, AND WE REALLY NEED TO HAVE A BETTER IDEA, BECAUSE THERE ARE MANY DIFFERENT STRATEGIES THAT WE AS A PUBLIC HEALTH DEPARTMENT CAN UTILIZE, BUT IT'S HARD TO DO, OR WE'RE NOT SURE ABOUT THE LONGTERM FUNDING.

UH, SO FAR WE FOCUSED ON TEMPORARY FUNDING, TEMPORARY POSITIONS, UH, BUT IT'S, IT'S GOING TO BE CHALLENGING FOR US TO RECRUIT, RETAIN TEMPORARY FOLKS.

UH, WE'VE ALREADY HAD A NUMBER OF FOLKS WHO STARTED WITH AUSTIN PUBLIC HEALTH.

THEY WERE OFFERED A PERMANENT POSITION WITH BENEFITS, UH, AT OTHER LOCATIONS.

AND THEY'RE GONE.

UM, WE RARELY MUST THAT THE LOCAL STATE AND FEDERAL LEVEL SHORE UP PUBLIC HEALTH, UH, NOT FOR THE SHORT TERM, BUT FOR THE LONG TERM, UH, BUT DOING SO WILL GIVE US SHORT TERM BENEFITS.

UH, AND FINALLY, NEXT SLIDE, PLEASE, AS SPENCER SAID, YOU KNOW, WE HAVE TO, WE HAVE TO BE THIS COMMUNITY OF US, NOT JUST FOR COVID-19, BUT EVERYTHING THAT WE DO.

AND IF WE CANNOT DO THIS, WE'RE NOT GOING TO BE SUCCESSFUL.

WE ARE AT THE VERGE OF HAVING THAT RECOMMENDATION COME FROM ME TO THE MAYOR AND TO JUDGE BISCO THAT WE CLOSE THINGS DOWN AGAIN RIGHT NOW IS THE TIME TO ACT RIGHT NOW IS THE TIME THAT WE ALL MUST MAKE DECISIONS, NOT JUST FOR US AND OUR FAMILY, BUT FOR THIS COMMUNITY.

AND THAT DECISION NEEDS TO BE, I'M GOING TO STAY HOME IF I DON'T HAVE TO GO OUT.

AND IF I DO HAVE TO GO OUT TO A PUBLIC PLACE, I'M GOING TO WEAR A MASK.

I'M GOING TO SOCIAL DISTANCE, AND I'M GOING TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO MY PERSONAL HYGIENE SO THAT WE CAN STOP THE SPREAD AND FLATTEN THE CURVE AGAIN, AS WE DID A FEW MONTHS AGO, WITH THAT, I'LL PASS IT BACK TO YOU, SPENCER.

THANK YOU, DR.

SCOTT.

AND I'LL JUST NOTE FOR THE COUNCIL AND THE COMMUNITY.

THIS PRESENTATION HAS BEEN PLACED IN, BEEN PLACED IN THE BACKUP FOR THIS AGENDA.

AND SO IF YOU WANT TO HAVE REFERENCE TO THESE SLIDES, OR YOU CAN FIND THEM THERE, I KNOW THERE ARE MANY QUESTIONS FOR THE PRESENTERS SO FAR, BUT I DID SEE THAT DR.

MYERS ARE A GREAT PARTNER FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS DELL MEDICAL SCHOOL HAS JOINED US.

AND SO WITH YOUR PERMISSION, MAYOR, WE'LL JUST GO RIGHT INTO DR.

MEYER'S PRESENTATION, AND THEN WE'LL OPEN IT UP FOR QUESTIONS.

THAT'S WHAT WE SHOULD DO, DR.

MEYERS AND YOU WITH US.

YEAH, I AM.

YES.

CAN YOU SEE ME? I CAN'T SEE.

CAN'T SEE ME.

LET'S SEE YOU SEE ME NOW.

I CAN, YES.

I'M GOING TO TRY TO SHARE MY SLIDES AND THEN WILL GET STARTED.

LET'S SEE.

UM, ARE YOU ABLE TO SEE MY SLIDES NOW? YES.

OKAY.

YOU, CAN YOU STILL SAY THAT I'VE GONE INTO PRESENTATION MODE? YES.

OKAY, GREAT.

UM, SO THANK YOU FOR YOUR TIME.

UM, GOOD AFTERNOON, EVERYBODY.

I'M GOING TO SHARE JUST A FEW SLIDES THAT, UH, GIVE CURRENT ESTIMATES FOR WHERE WE ARE TODAY AND WHERE WE MAY BE HEADED IN THE NEXT FEW WEEKS, AND THEN FOLLOW UP ON MY PRESENTATION FROM, I BELIEVE LAST MONTH, SHOW YOU WHAT THINGS MIGHT LOOK LIKE IF WE ENACT, UM, THE TRIGGERED POLICIES THAT ARE NOW ON THE KEY INDICATORS DASHBOARD, UH, UNDER DIFFERENT SCENARIOS.

SO LET ME JUST START WITH KIND OF VERY SHORT TERM PROJECTIONS BASED ON ANALYSIS WE DO ON A DAILY BASIS, UH, TO TRY TO GET A HANDLE ON HOW FAST IS COVID SPREADING TODAY.

HOW QUICKLY ARE THINGS RISING IN THE COMMUNITY IN TERMS OF NEW HOSPITAL ADMISSIONS AND TOTAL NUMBER OF HOSPITALIZATIONS IN THE FIVE COUNTY MSA.

SO HERE ARE SHORT TERM PROJECTIONS USING OUR ESTIMATES FOR THE RECENT TRANSMISSION, RIGHT? SO WE ARE ESTIMATING THIS FROM DAILY HOSPITAL ADMISSIONS DATA, BUT BECAUSE OF THE LAG BETWEEN THE TIME SOMEONE IS INFECTED AND THE TIME THEY GET ADMITTED TO A HOSPITAL, WHICH IS USUALLY AROUND 10 DAYS, WELL, WE ESTIMATE TODAY ACTUALLY REFLECTS HOW FAST IT WAS SPREADING ABOUT TWO WEEKS AGO, WEEK AND A HALF AGO.

SO BASED ON THOSE ESTIMATES, UM, THIS IS A PROJECTION FOR, UH, WHERE HOSPITALIZATIONS ARE GOING.

SO THE BLACK DOTS THERE ALONG THE BOTTOM, UH, GO, I THINK UP TO ABOUT, UM, MAYBE

[00:50:01]

FRIDAY OF LAST WEEK.

AND THEN, UM, WE PROJECT FROM THERE USING OUR MODELS THAT ARE FIT TO THE LOCAL DATA.

EACH ONE OF THOSE GRAY LINES REPRESENTS A, WHAT WE CALL A POSSIBLE TREND.

EACH ONE OF THOSE ARE EQUALLY LIKELY TO HAPPEN IN THE FUTURE, BUT YOU CAN SEE THE MASS OF THE PROJECTIONS CLIMB SORT OF STEEPLY UPWARDS ARE CONTINUING TO CLIMB AT THE SAME EXPONENTIAL RATE THAT WE'VE BEEN SEEING OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS.

UM, AND THAT BLACK LINE IN THE MIDDLE IS SORT AN AVERAGE PROJECTION, BUT IT DOESN'T MEAN IT'S ANY MORE LIKELY THAN, THAN ANY OTHER PROJECTION.

IMPORTANTLY, THESE ARE PROJECTIONS ASSUMING THAT BEHAVIOR DOESN'T CHANGE, ASSUMING THAT THE VIRUS CONTINUES TO SPREAD AT THE RATE IT'S BEEN STRAINING IN THE LAST FEW WEEKS, IF PEOPLE VERY DRAMATICALLY CHANGED THEIR BEHAVIOR, THEY WERE FACE FAST, MORE TAKE, THEY TAKE OTHER PRECAUTIONS TO SLOW TRANSMISSION OR OTHER POLICIES GO INTO EFFECT THAT CELL TRANSMISSION.

THEN WE WOULD EXPECT TO SEE THESE LINES, UH, NOT CLIMB QUITE AS STEEPLY AND BEGIN TO SLOW THE COMING WEEKS.

SO THESE ARE PROJECTIONS WITHOUT ANY BEHAVIORAL CHANGE.

I'M GOING TO ADD A LINE TO THIS GRAPH, WHICH CORRESPONDS TO OUR CURRENT ESTIMATE FOR OUR HOSPITAL BED CAPACITY, UH, FOR COVID-19 PATIENTS IN THE FIVE COUNTY MSA.

SO BASED ON THESE PROJECTIONS, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AND YOU CAN SEE THAT THERE'S SOME LINES THAT NEVER COME CLOSE TO THAT RED LINE, THAT SORT OF MEAN PROJECTION, UM, IS PROJECTED TO, UH, APPROACH HOSPITAL'S CAPACITY AND MAYBE CROSS IT MID TO LATE JULY.

NOW I'M GONNA SHOW YOU A SIMILAR GRAPH, BUT INSTEAD OF SHOWING YOU TOTAL NUMBER OF COVID HOSPITALIZATIONS, I'M NOW GOING TO SHOW YOU, UH, UH, DAILY HOSPITAL ADMISSIONS FOR THE FIVE COUNTY MSA.

SO WHAT YOU SEE ALONG THE Y AXIS HERE IS NOT THE SINGLE DAY HOSPITAL ADMISSIONS, BUT THE SEVEN DAY AVERAGE.

AND IF YOU'RE PROBABLY AWARE THAT THAT IS WHAT WE ARE TRACKING ON A DAILY BASIS TO FIGURE OUT WHEN, WHEN IT IS THAT WE SHOULD MOVE INTO DIFFERENT ALERT LEVELS.

SO THE RED DOTS IN THIS GRAPH ARE THE OBSERVED NUMBER OF DAILY ADMISSIONS.

UH, AGAIN, PROBABLY UP THROUGHOUT JULY 27TH.

UM, AND THEN THE GRAY LINES GOING OFF TO THE RIGHT ARE OUR PROJECTIONS.

AGAIN, YELLOW AREA IS, UH, THE POSSIBLE RANGE, UM, THAT WE ARE PROJECTING GOING FORWARD.

THE 95% RANGE, EACH INDIVIDUAL GRAY SQUIGGLE CORRESPONDS TO A PLAUSIBLE FUTURE SCENARIO.

EACH ONE OF THOSE, EACH ONE OF THOSE GRAY SQUIGGLES IS EQUALLY POSSIBLE.

AND THEN THAT BLACK DASH LINE IN THE MIDDLE, UM, CORRESPONDS TO SORT OF THE, THE MIDDLE OR THE, THE AVERAGE PROJECTION.

UM, AND AGAIN, THESE ARE PROJECTIONS WITHOUT BEHAVIORAL CHANGE.

SO THIS IS ASSUMING NOTHING CHANGES.

PEOPLE DON'T BECOME MORE CAUTIOUS, WE DON'T CHANGE OUR POLICIES.

UM, AND IF, IF ANY, IF THINGS CHANGED IN THESE PROJECTIONS WILL PROBABLY NO LONGER BE ACCURATE.

UM, AND I'M GOING TO ADD A LINE TO THIS ONE, TOO.

UM, IF, UM, IF WE BELIEVE THAT WE ARE NOT ABLE TO SLOW TRANSMISSION AND WE ARE REALLY, UH, APPROACHING AT HIGH VELOCITY, OUR HOSPITAL CAPACITY THAT OUR, OUR EARLIER MODELS SUGGESTED THAT WE, WE PROBABLY SHOULD ENACT A STAY HOME ORDER OR DO SOMETHING TO DRAMATICALLY SLOW TRANSMISSION.

UH, AROUND THE TIME WE CROSS A SEVEN DAY AVERAGE OF 70 NEW HOSPITAL ADMISSIONS.

UM, AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE COULD GET THERE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS.

UM, BUT AGAIN, IT DEPENDS ON THE PROJECTION.

OKAY.

AND SO THIS IS SORT OF, KIND OF CURRENT SITUATION AND SHORT TERM PROJECTIONS.

NOW I'M GOING TO SHOW YOU SOME, UM, LONGER TERM PROJECTIONS, AND THESE ARE MUCH MORE KIND OF, YOU SHOULD THINK ABOUT THESE AS PLAUSIBLE FUTURES.

IT IS VERY HARD TO PROJECT WHAT COVID IS GOING TO DO BEYOND A COUPLE OF WEEKS, BECAUSE WE CANNOT PROJECT BEHAVIOR.

WE CANNOT PROJECT POLICY.

SO ALL OF THESE ARE MEANT TO BE SORT OF, IF THEN IF WE DO THIS, THEN THIS IS WHAT WE MIGHT SEE.

SO LET ME GO INTO THOSE GRAPHS.

WAS THAT INTRODUCTION.

OKAY.

SO THIS IS WHAT WE MIGHT SEE IF WE ARE ABLE TO FOLLOW THE STAGED THRESHOLDS THAT WE HAVE IN PLACE, THE TRIGGERS THAT ARE NOW ON THE KEY INDICATORS PAGE.

SO THIS IS ASSUMING THAT WE ACTUALLY TRIGGER AT THE THRESHOLDS THAT I'M ABOUT TO TELL YOU, AND THAT PEOPLE COMPLY.

THAT THERE'S ENOUGH ADHERENCE, THAT WHEN WE MOVED TO ORANGE, WE REALLY DO AS A COMMUNITY SLOW TRANSMISSION TO THE POINT THAT WE WOULD EXPECT IT TO BE SLOW UNDER ORANGE.

SO THE CRIME PROJECTIONS I'M GOING TO SHOW YOU ASSUME THE FOLLOWING THRESHOLDS THAT WE MOVE INTO YELLOW.

AS SOON AS WE CROSS A SEVEN DAY AVERAGE OF 10 NEW HOSPITAL ADMISSIONS, THAT WE MOVE INTO ORANGE WHEN WE HIT 60 AND 60 IS A LITTLE BIT, THEY HAVE A LITTLE BIT OF TIME BEFORE WE GET THERE.

SO WE HAVE A LITTLE BIT OF BREATHING ROOM BEFORE WE HAVE TO GET INTO ORANGE, BUT IT HAS TO HAPPEN PRETTY QUICKLY.

UM, AND THEN WE WOULD BE ABLE TO, IF WE REALLY DO RUBEN TO ORANGE AND PEOPLE CHANGE BEHAVIOR AND WE SLOW TRANSMISSION, THEN WE CAN AFFORD TO WAIT UNTIL WE HIT 123 DAILY HOSPITAL ADMISSIONS BEFORE WE HAVE TO ACTUALLY SLAM ON THE BRAKES AND PUT HOME, PUT OUT A STAY HOME MEASURE.

AND, UM, AND IN FACT THE HOPE WOULD BE IF WE MOVE INTO ORANGE QUICKLY, THAT WE'LL NEVER GET TO THE POINT WHERE WE NEED TO STAY HOME MEASURE.

SO THIS IS A PROJECTION UNDER THAT POLICY.

AGAIN, ASSUMING

[00:55:01]

THAT WE ADHERE.

UM, AND SO THIS, IN THIS PARTICULAR PROJECTION, SO AGAIN, THE, THE BLOCK IS SORT OF A MIDDLE LINE.

IT'S NO MORE PROBABLE THAN THE LOWER GRAY LINES ARE THE TOP RAIL LINES.

AND SO YOU CAN SEE THERE'S A LOT OF POSSIBLE FUTURES, BUT IF WE END UP ON THE BLACK LINE, THEN WE EXPECT THAT WE WILL HAVE TO ENACT, UM, A, UH, ORANGE ALERT WITHIN THE NEXT WEEK OR TWO.

UM, AND IF WE SUCCESSFULLY SLOW TRANSMISSION UNDER ORANGE, WE EXPECT TO BE ABLE TO STAY UNDER THAT 1500 CAPACITY WITH 95% CERTAINTY AND NEVER HAVE TO GO INTO A RED MEASURE, UH, STAY HOME MEASURE.

HOWEVER, WE WILL HAVE TO STAY IN THAT ORANGE, THAT MORE STRICT STATE FOR QUITE A LONG TIME, PROBABLY THROUGH, YOU KNOW, MOST OF THE FIRST SEMESTER OF, UH, 20, 20, 21 ACADEMIC YEAR.

NOW I'M GOING TO SHOW YOU PROJECTIONS, ASSUMING THAT WE ARE NOT ABLE TO GO INTO ORANGE IMMEDIATELY, THAT TRANSMISSION CONTINUES AT ITS CURRENT RATE.

AND WE DO NOT SLOW MAP.

WE'RE NOT ABLE TO SLOW TRANSMISSION EITHER BECAUSE WE DON'T CHANGE.

WE'RE NOT ABLE TO CHANGE THE POLICIES THAT REALLY MAKE A DIFFERENCE, OR BECAUSE WE DO CHANGE THE POLICIES, BUT PEOPLE DON'T ADD HERE AND TRANSMISSION CONTINUES AT ITS CURRENT PACE.

SO IN THAT CASE, WE MAY NOT BE ABLE TO USE THESE SORT OF PARTIAL MEASURES TO SLOW, TO SORT OF TAP ON THE BRAKES.

AND WE MAY HAVE TO HAVE NO CHOICE, BUT TO EVENTUALLY RESORT TO A STAY HOME ORDER, UH, BECAUSE, UM, HOSPITALIZATIONS ARE CONTINUING AT AN ALARMING PACE AND THEY MADE, THEY LOOKED LIKE THEY MAY SOON APPROACH OUR CAPACITY.

UM, I'M SORRY.

I MEANT TO MENTION, AND THIS, WE WOULD PROJECT AN IN THIS SORT OF 18 MONTHS HORIZON THAT THERE WILL BE A LITTLE, UH, AROUND 2000 OR 2,100 DEATHS IN THE AUSTIN AREA.

SORRY.

SO GOING ON TO THE NEXT PROJECTION.

SO IMAGINE WE'RE NOT ABLE TO ENACT ORANGE FOR SOME REASON, OR IT DOESN'T SUCCESSFULLY SLOW TRANSMISSION.

THEN WE WOULD, INSTEAD OF BEING ABLE TO WAIT UNTIL WE GET TO 123 SEVEN DAY AVERAGE OF HOSPITAL ADMISSIONS, WE WILL HAVE TO SLAM ON THE BRAKES MUCH MORE QUICKLY, BECAUSE AS YOU SAW, OUR HOSPITALIZATIONS ARE VERY FAST APPROACHING OUR CAPACITY AT THE EXPONENTIAL RATE THAT THEY ARE INCREASING.

AND THEN THIS IS WHAT WE MIGHT EXPECT OVER THE COMING MONTHS.

IF WE JUST, IF THERE'S NO CHOICE EXCEPT TO LET IT SPREAD LIKE IT IS NOW, OR BE IN A FULL BLOWN STAY HOME, THEN WE PROJECT THAT WE WILL HAVE TO GO THROUGH SEVERAL PROLONG, STAY HOME ORDERS.

THE FIRST OF WHICH WILL HAVE TO BE ENACTED PROBABLY BY MID, MID JULY.

AGAIN, THESE ARE POSSIBLE PROJECTIONS DEPEND ON BEHAVIOR.

EACH ONE OF THOSE GRAY LINES IS EQUALLY LIKELY.

THE BLACK LINE IS SORT OF A MIDDLE CURVE AND THE RED AREAS IN THIS GRAPH CORRESPOND TO THE PERIODS WHERE WE WOULD HAVE TO ENACT A STAY HOME MEASURE IN ORDER TO, AND I'M SORRY, THAT'S STILL SAYS 1400, BUT THAT'S FOR 1500 CAPACITY THAT LINE ACROSS THE TOP.

UM, AND IN ORDER TO KEEP OUR HOSPITALIZATIONS UNDER 1500, UM, SO THAT'S, THAT'S WHAT IT WOULD LOOK LIKE.

AND YOU KNOW, THAT, THAT REALLY LOOKS PRETTY, PRETTY BLEAK, RIGHT? IT'S, IT'S, IT'S SEVERAL MONTHS OF STAB PERIODIC STAY HOMES.

AND SO, YOU KNOW, THE HOPE IS REALLY THAT WE CAN, UH, PUT IN PLACE MEASURES TO SLOW TRANSMISSION THAT REALLY ARE EFFECTIVE.

UM, BEFORE WE GET TO THE POINT WHERE WE REALLY HAVE TO ENACT MUCH STRICTER MEASURE, UM, AND THE LAST GRAPH I'M GOING TO SHOW YOU IS A SCENARIO WHERE MAYBE WE CAN'T GET PEOPLE TO GO ORANGE RIGHT NOW.

WE'RE NOT ABLE TO, IN THE TIME THAT WE HAVE REALLY SLOW TRANSMISSION IN A WAY THAT CHANGES THIS SORT OF VERY CONCERNING, UH, RAPID INCREASE IN HOSPITALIZATIONS.

SO MAYBE WE WILL ACTUALLY REQUIRE A STAY HOME MEASURE, UM, IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS.

SO IF SO, UM, WHAT IF AFTER THAT WE CAN PUT MEASURES IN PLACE, UH, PUT ORDERS IN PLACE, UH, RAISE AWARENESS SO THAT WHEN WE'RE FINISHED WITH THE FIRST STAY HOME MEASURE, WE REALLY CAN GO BACK INTO ORANGE INSTEAD OF JUST REGRESSING BACK TO YELLOW.

UM, AND SO IN THAT WAY, MAYBE WE COULD ONLY, MAYBE WE WOULD ONLY HAVE TO USE ONE STAY HOME MEASURE.

AND THEN AFTER THAT, BE ABLE TO KIND OF MANAGE THINGS WITH, WITH LESS RESTRICTIVE MEASURES.

SO IN THIS CASE, THE THERE'S THREE DIFFERENT TRIGGERS.

THERE'S A 10 OF 50 AND AN 80.

UM, AND, UM, WHAT YOU'RE GOING TO SEE HERE IS THAT WE GO INTO A STAY HOME, UM, MEASURE IN MID JULY.

IT LASTS FIVE WEEKS, UH, 35 DAYS.

AND THEN AFTER, UH, WE, WE GO THROUGH ABOUT A THREE AND A HALF MONTH ORANGE PERIOD.

UM, AND THEN WE CAN START TO RELAX THINGS EVEN FURTHER.

SO THAT'S JUST AN ANOTHER, ANOTHER POSSIBLE SCENARIO.

THAT'S NOT ALL OR NOTHING.

IT'S SORT OF, IT DOES REQUIRE KIND OF REALLY REIGNING THINGS IN VERY QUICKLY, BUT THEN IF WE CAN, UM, GET, WE CAN FIND A WAY TO DO TO ENACT MORE, UM, OR LESS RESTRICTIVE MEASURES THAT ARE INDEED EFFECTIVE.

MAYBE WE CAN MOVE INTO, INTO THAT KIND OF POLICY FOLLOWING THE INITIAL STAY HOME.

SO THOSE ARE THE UPDATES I HAVE FOR YOU, AND I'D BE HAPPY TO ANSWER ANY QUESTIONS JUST FOR COURT DOCTORS

[01:00:02]

AND SCHOOLS OPEN IN THE FALL.

SO UNDER THE SCENARIO UNDER ANY SCENARIO, UM, THE ONLY SCENARIO IN WHICH I, I WOULD SAY THAT WOULD BE REALLY, REALLY IMPOSSIBLE TO HAVE ANY SCHOOLING WOULD BE A FOREIGN GRAD.

IF WE'RE GOING TO STAY HOME ORDER, WE REALLY ARE.

YOU KNOW, WE'RE REALLY AT A POINT WHERE WE REALLY DON'T WANT ANYONE OUT IN ABOUT UNDER ORANGE.

YOU KNOW, ORANGE IS ORANGE IS ASSUMING THAT TRANSMISSION HAS BEEN REDUCED QUITE A BIT RELATIVE TO WHAT IT IS TODAY.

SO IT IS DEFINITELY POSSIBLE THAT SCHOOLS COULD BE OPEN IN SOME CAPACITY, BUT IT WOULD HAVE TO BE WITH PRETTY EXTREME MEASURES IN PLACE TO, TO ENSURE THAT, UM, THAT IN PERSON SCHOOLING IS NOT AMPLIFYING TRANSMISSION.

SO THE ANSWER IS YES, BUT EXTREMELY CAUTIOUSLY.

AND, AND IT LOOKS LIKE IN THIS PARTICULAR SCENARIO, UM, WE, IF WE, IF WE REALLY DO GO INTO A STAY HOME ORDER IN MID JULY AND IT'S PARTICULAR AND THIS PARTICULAR CURVE, UM, AND IT'S FIVE WEEKS LONG, WE WOULD BE,